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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby clif » Tue 16 May 2017, 22:39:00

One very large unspoken idea missing from this discussion, is that the sea level cities are the centers of global trade. The actual action of that trade happens at sea level in large complex industrial settings, with infrastructure that takes years to build. All the while daily trade depends on using said infrastructure.

It's not just the docks but roads, railroads, electric and warehouse infrastructure that needs rebuilding each time you retreat due to SLR. Things will get very interesting when the energy needs of rebuilding new ports collides with the energy needs of just daily life as peak fossil fuels bites harder. Not to mention where will the required raw materials come from if world wide each country has to rebuild their ports and associated infrastructure, at the same time having to do more with less and less available energy.

This might be why the Chinese are planning their new silk road initiate to rebuild land trade routes along with sea trade routes. They don't have the head up their anus attitude about global warming and SLR that is currently in vogue in DC with the el-dunce and his crew.

It ain't all about the beach front houses but much much more that needs addressing at the same time as relocating hundreds of millions around the planet as SLR makes them homeless.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby diemos » Tue 16 May 2017, 23:01:17

Newfie wrote:I agree much could be done to mitigate but very little IS being done. We have had 2 warning shots, Katrina and Sandy. The effects of the warning pass nearly as soon as the news cycle.


Not quite. New Orleans population is down from 500 to 400 thousand.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 16 May 2017, 23:47:02

clif wrote:One very large unspoken idea missing from this discussion, is that the sea level cities are the centers of global trade. The actual action of that trade happens at sea level in large complex industrial settings, with infrastructure that takes years to build. All the while daily trade depends on using said infrastructure.

It's not just the docks but roads, railroads, electric and warehouse infrastructure that needs rebuilding each time you retreat due to SLR. Things will get very interesting when the energy needs of rebuilding new ports collides with the energy needs of just daily life as peak fossil fuels bites harder. Not to mention where will the required raw materials come from if world wide each country has to rebuild their ports and associated infrastructure, at the same time having to do more with less and less available energy.

This might be why the Chinese are planning their new silk road initiate to rebuild land trade routes along with sea trade routes. They don't have the head up their anus attitude about global warming and SLR that is currently in vogue in DC with the el-dunce and his crew.

It ain't all about the beach front houses but much much more that needs addressing at the same time as relocating hundreds of millions around the planet as SLR makes them homeless.


I don't think you quite grasp the dynamics of the beachfront. These are million dollar homes, only one of several homes owned by the wealthy. The cheap residences, condos and rental units, are not going to represent losses to anybody but the landlord and the first couple of floors of condos that flood. Venice is a place where they are being stubborn about acknowledging SLR, as once those canals were streets.

There are also the Great Lakes, which have constant levels maintained by the locks of the St. Lawrence Seaway. No SLR will effect those. Not to mention the Dutch have been farming behind dikes for centuries. The future of NYC looks like this:
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...and Donald Trump or his heirs will build the dikes and walls, and the taxpayers will pay the cost.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 17 May 2017, 07:35:05

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 17 May 2017, 08:23:19

Newfie wrote:https://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/06/12/nyregion/bloomberg-outlines-20-billion-plan-to-protect-city-from-future-storms.html

http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2016/10/24 ... york-city/

http://theconversation.com/building-cli ... york-52363

What I'm having trouble finding is what happened. To Bloombergs plan, where it stands today.


My understanding is they had a bunch of meetings and spent a bunch of money doing studies about what they should do. Unfortunately for bureaucrats that is where their interest in problems ends, they love meetings and studies that let them kick the can down the road and not actually make decisions. If you make a decision and it turns out to be wrong you are the scapegoat for all the costs associated with the entire program. If you just do another study and never make a decision then you proclaim the results of inaction are not your fault and point at whomever the political leader on that day is.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 17 May 2017, 15:03:42

My recollection is that de Blasio gutted the program but I can't find any discussion of that.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 17 May 2017, 15:16:19

Newfie wrote:My recollection is that de Blasio gutted the program but I can't find any discussion of that.


I found an article from right after he was elected that certainly implies he gutted the program,

https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/a-few- ... nge-legacy
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 17 May 2017, 17:49:36

It interesting that he talks about abandoning the lower floors of buildings. I've heard that kind talk elsewhere. I just simply don't think it's a viable alternative.

Having steel boats I fight rust a lot. Rust wins, rust never sleeps. Structures built to withstand rust are at risk. Structures not built to resist it are at terrible risk. Then there are all the subterranean utilities. The subways are simply the most obvious. There is the power, telecom, water, sewer, etc. none of that has been built to withstand salt water immersion.

The building foundations are in rock, but if you degrade the connecting link so and structure they are no longer sound. If you abandon the tunnels and subways then how do you move folks in and out? This isn't Venice. Venice was essentially built to survive in the very environment it has, just at a lower level. It's foundations are countless micropiles of trees embedded in and preserved by the muck. 6' of more water in NYC means the tunnels, which "float" in the mud will become more bouyant, they will want to rise. That's already been an issue with the PATH tunnels with their two flooding episodes. Hell, they can't come up with the money to replace these achient tubes, how will they ever come to grips with the expense of a hugely more massive program?

Personally I think much of Manhattan is toast. They should migrate it to someplace else and just let the existing buildings revert to a disposable theme park. But they won't.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Squilliam » Wed 17 May 2017, 18:13:04

The problem with New York is once they move they are kind of toast. There is no reason not to shift the whole financial infrastructure to a place like Chicago. Unless they all decide to make the move at the same time to the same place, then they have the problem of them saying 'uncle' and leaving one at a time. There is no impetus then to recreate New York, so New York would effectively be finished. Either they stay or they admit defeat.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 17 May 2017, 18:19:55

Squilliam wrote:There is no impetus then to recreate New York, so New York would effectively be finished.


But just imagine the kayaking down the Avenue of the Americas.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 17 May 2017, 18:53:03

KaiserJeep wrote: Venice is a place where they are being stubborn about acknowledging SLR, as once those canals were streets.

Where do you get your data for such statements?

  • https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/jun/16/inside-venice-bid-hold-back-tide-sea-level-rise
  • https://www.amazon.com/Venice-Shall-Rise-Again-Engineered/dp/012420144X/ref=sr_1_fkmr0_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1495062871&sr=8-1-fkmr0&keywords=venice+documentary+sea+level+rise
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSE_Project
  • If you google: 'Sinking City of Venice', you'll find a nice NOVA PBS documentaty on the subject, I got plenty of hits for it on Youtube
  • I saw some other documentary on Venice and the MOSE project and interviewing a bunch of Venetian citizens like shopkeepers who hate the flooding. (I can't find it now, but I'm pretty sure I saw it on Netflix or Amazon in the past year).

Whether they will be successful for the short, intermediate, or long term, in protecting Venice from the sea is (IMO) an open question. But acting like Venice is denying SLR doesn't seem to square at all with what's going on there.

They're spending $billions on the MOSE project (moveable barriers to block off the sea across inlets during the highest tides), since 2003, which according to the documentaries I saw keep being delayed due to lack of enough funding and consistent interest.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 17 May 2017, 19:43:24

OS, I only meant that the city has had canals for hundreds of years, without moving. That is being stubborn.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby clif » Wed 17 May 2017, 22:34:23

I don't think you quite grasp the dynamics of the beachfront.


Wasn’t discussing beachfront but the special places at sea level where the vast majority of international trade happens. And the associated problem SLR creates there. I was quite specific.

You fail to notice or decided to totally ignore this for some reason.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Wed 17 May 2017, 22:40:56

There is no reason not to shift the whole financial infrastructure to a place like Chicago


They'd never move it. I've been reading Trump's book 'The Art of the deal' mostly about his rise as a real estate mogul. Trump, although born and raised rich couldn't even date rich women in the 70's because he was 'New Money'. Even though he had a glamorous penthouse apartment, it was on the 'East side', Classy women wouldn't travel there with him.

There is so much 'Old money, 5th avenue' snobbery around, you think that all would just get up and move to Chicago? (The thought?)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 18 May 2017, 16:59:56

The "move" would likely be to some emerging place like China.

London already has flood gates on the Thames which, IIRC, they are planning to make higher.

NYC will likely be much tougher.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 20 May 2017, 11:49:10

Many of the lessons learned and applied in this Japanese city hit by a tsunami can also be used for areas threatened by sea level rise or flooding.

In Japan Tsunami City, People Power Turns Disaster Into Opportunity

http://floodlist.com/asia/japan-tsunami ... pportunity

(thanks to sig at ASIF for this)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 23 May 2017, 16:19:31

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/03/23/ ... s-century/
Dr James Hansen — Human Warming Pushing Seas Toward Exponential Rise of Several Meters This Century
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 24 May 2017, 10:59:37

Rapid escalation of coastal flood exposure in US municipalities from sea level rise (Full Text)

Abstract:

Rising sea levels are increasing the exposure of populations and infrastructure to coastal flooding. While earlier studies estimate magnitudes of future exposure or project rates of sea level rise, here, we estimate growth rates of exposure, likely to be a key factor in how effectively coastal communities can adapt. These rates may not correlate well with sea level rise rates due to varying patterns of topography and development. We integrate exposure assessments based on LiDAR elevation data with extreme flood event distributions and sea level rise projections to compute the expected annual exposure of population, housing, roads, and property value in 327 medium-to-large coastal municipalities circumscribing the contiguous USA, and identify those localities that could experience rapid exposure growth sometime this century.

... Under worst-case scenarios, climate-driven sea level rise could exceed 2 m by the end of this century

... Miami Beach, FL, has the highest absolute Estimated Annual Exposure (EAE) jump, from 2200 in 2000 to 65,400 (35,300–79,800) in 2100.

Under RCP 8.5, Florida contains 42% of all super-threshold cities (roughly three quarters of which are on the Atlantic side), while New Jersey has another 10%. Further, 69% of all super-threshold cities are on the Atlantic coast, 23% are on the Gulf coast, and 8% are on the Pacific coast. Under RCP 2.6, while impacts diminish, these proportions remain largely consistent.

Several factors may cause actual exposure growth rates to diverge from our projections. Instability of the Antarctic ice sheets may cause sea levels to rise much faster in the second half of the century (DeConto & Pollard 2016) than under the projections used here, pointing to greater threats than we find. We do not account for waves. Furthermore, while we assume that the distribution of extreme flood heights above sea level at any given time will not change, some studies suggest that the frequency of tropical cyclones may change, and their intensities could rise (Knutson et al. 2010; Knutson et al. 2013; Emanuel 2013). Analysis by Houser et al. (2015) suggests that the overall impact of such changes in activity would likely increase expected annual coastal flood damages.

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 24 May 2017, 11:05:31

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... 5497216953
Scientists say the pace of sea level rise has nearly tripled since 1990
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 24 May 2017, 12:43:43

onlooker wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/05/22/scientists-say-the-rate-of-sea-level-rise-has-nearly-tripled-since-1990/?utm_term=.d35497216953
Scientists say the pace of sea level rise has nearly tripled since 1990



Damn, do I have to sell now my Florida properties? I think it's getting close.
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