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Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 19:25:02

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:Climate change has F-all to do with CO2

Once you make that statement, you're clearly square in the middle of the "facts don't matter" denialist camp. It doesn't matter how you frame the objection -- sunspots, conspiracies, evil spirits, whatever. You just lose all credibility with serious scientific thinking and a mountain of evidence re AGW.

Climate change has everything to do with humans terraforming the planet and making for an unnatural environment, you can't deny that!
It is in that unnatural environment that most of the AGW is present, so why do you think that is?
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 19:54:48

I think what is being referenced with respect to sunspots has little to do with direct impact on irradiance as some here seem to think. There are quite a number of published papers which make an argument for a connection between low sunspots, it's magnetic field and emission of cosmic rays. The theory goes that more cosmic rays hitting the earth's surface (which would be predicted in a Grand Minimum) results in more cloud formation, more cloud formation blocks the energy from the sun resulting in a cooling effect. At least that is the theory.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 20:06:35

Correct, solar energy is more than just visible light.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 17 Nov 2018, 05:59:52

dolanbaker wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:Climate change has F-all to do with CO2

Once you make that statement, you're clearly square in the middle of the "facts don't matter" denialist camp. It doesn't matter how you frame the objection -- sunspots, conspiracies, evil spirits, whatever. You just lose all credibility with serious scientific thinking and a mountain of evidence re AGW.

Climate change has everything to do with humans terraforming the planet and making for an unnatural environment, you can't deny that!
It is in that unnatural environment that most of the AGW is present, so why do you think that is?

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/ ... on-climate

Far too many people are looking at this issue from the wrong end!
It's a bit like looking at road safety and concentrating on making cars crash safer while ignoring the fact that the drivers are badly trained and the roads are badly engineered.

What has this to do with the changes in solar activity, nothing! But just to highlight the facts that the distraction tactics from those who want growth to continue indefinitely are working.

To successfully tackle climate change would require a reversal of much of the human activity over the past century, reversal of deforestation, reduction of population etc. We know that no one will agree to these steps, so they put up a smokescreen about the "enemy" being CO2!
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 17 Nov 2018, 13:44:28

My original link to Dr. Zharkova's presentation is no longer valid due to copywrite issue, use link below. Although based upon the comments posted most of you have not watched the presentation. A few short points:

1. Dr. Zharkova is a SOLAR PHYSICIST! Not a climate modeller. Her presentation is about predicting the behaviour of the Sun's magnetic field and she has won worldwide acclaim for her discoveries.

2. Dr. Zharkova states repeatedly that the sun is very stable and solar irradiance only varies by .1% which has only a small 0.1 degree C affect on earth's temperature according to climate models. So please stop posting regurgitated out of date RealClimate debunking claptrap, there's nothing to debunk here.

3. Dr. Zharkova 's model shows the variations in the Suns magnetic field changes the UV spectrum output and blocking effect on cosmic rays. This shows up in 22 year cycles, 100 year cycles and 350 year cycles. IPCC models do not include these UV and cosmic ray affects.

4. Dr. Zharkova's model includes movement of the sun closer and farther away from the earth on 2100 year cycle due to planetary gravity effects. This does change the amount of Solar irradiance the earth receives and we are currently in an increased irradiance cycle that will last another 500 years.

5. Past temperature reconstructions, prior to increased CO2, match well with the Suns magnetic fluctuations predicted by model and in link with observation.

6. Dr. Zharkova's model shows the Suns magnetic field is going into a 350 year minimum cycle (2020-2050). With an absolute minimum in 2028-2032. Based upon past temperature behaviour she is predicting a cooling for the earth beginning in 5 years and persisting for 30 years, followed by warming.

7. As Dr.Zharkova says we only have to wait 5 years to see if her sunspot prediction is correct, "the sun will show us". And we only have to wait 5-10 years to see if her earth cooling prediction will come true, NOAA et al will confirm that.

https://www.thegwpf.org/professor-valen ... l-climate/
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 17 Nov 2018, 13:57:38

jawagord

Zharkova has published her theory in a few publications:

J. Shepherd, Simon & Zharkov, S & Zharkova, Valentina. (2014). Prediction of Solar Activity from Solar Background Magnetic Field Variations in Cycles 21-23. The Astrophysical Journal. 795. 46. 10.1088/0004-637X/795/1/46.

Zharkova, Valentina & Shepherd, S.J. & Popova, E & Zharkov, S. (2015). Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale. Scientific Reports. 5. 10.1038/srep15689.
the past three millennia.

Zharkova, V. V., Shepherd, S. J., Popova, E., & Zharkov, S. I. (2017). Reinforcing the double dynamo model with solar-terrestrial activity in the past three millennia. ArXiv e-prints, . arXiv:1705.04482.

you should be able to access one or two of these online
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 17 Nov 2018, 14:40:29

rockdoc123 wrote:jawagord

Zharkova has published her theory in a few publications:

J. Shepherd, Simon & Zharkov, S & Zharkova, Valentina. (2014). Prediction of Solar Activity from Solar Background Magnetic Field Variations in Cycles 21-23. The Astrophysical Journal. 795. 46. 10.1088/0004-637X/795/1/46.

Zharkova, Valentina & Shepherd, S.J. & Popova, E & Zharkov, S. (2015). Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale. Scientific Reports. 5. 10.1038/srep15689.
the past three millennia.

Zharkova, V. V., Shepherd, S. J., Popova, E., & Zharkov, S. I. (2017). Reinforcing the double dynamo model with solar-terrestrial activity in the past three millennia. ArXiv e-prints, . arXiv:1705.04482.

you should be able to access one or two of these online


Thanks Doc, I will. I have seen her theory mentioned in other publications and stories previously, seeing the video presentation puts the discovery in context of science building on science and how new thinking can shed light on old subjects.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 17 Nov 2018, 15:44:59

OS wrote: "...you're clearly square in the middle of the "facts don't matter" denialist camp"

Good point, OS. Not much use trying to get through to these hopeless nitwits. They have their delusion, and they're stickin' to it!
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 17 Nov 2018, 15:47:24

dohboi wrote:OS wrote: "...you're clearly square in the middle of the "facts don't matter" denialist camp"

Good point, OS. Not much use trying to get through to these hopeless nitwits. They have their delusion, and they're stickin' to it!

Once posters descend to personal insults, they've lost the debate.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 17 Nov 2018, 19:47:35

There is no doubt that the earth cooled by 0.5-1.0°C during the Maunder Minimum and past episodes of prolonged low sunspot activity.

There is also no doubt that the change is solar irradiance associated with variations in sunspot numbers is not large enough to cause the observed cooling during the little ice age and prior episodes of low sunspot activity.
This means the small reduction in solar irradiance associated with low sunspot numbers is amplified by various feedback effects. Prof. Zharkova suggests there might be changes in cloud cover due to variations in cosmic rays, for instance---an idea proposed earlier by NASA scientists.

Prof. Zharkova also did not originate the idea that variations in sun spots result in significant climate change....the credit for that should go to Dr. John Eddy, an American astrophysicist with NCAR.

Sunspots and Human Affairs---Dr. John Eddy

The real question here is whether or not the cooling we can expect from the low sun spot numbers will be enough to counteract the anthropogenic warming we are seeing from Greenhouse gases in the atmospheric.

The answer is yes and no. There will probably be some cooling from the low solar irradiance associated with with the minimum in sunspots, but probably not enough to fully counteract the warming. One estimate I saw predicated the greatest possible climate effect of the sunspot minimum would by equivalent to about the rise in global temperatures we see in a decade from Greenhouse Warming. But it won't stop or reverse global warming....it will just retard it slightly.

Lets hope so anyway....at the pace we are on global warming is already melting glaciers and causing wildfires and superstorms and sea level rise to increase at a frightening rate. Any delay is good.

Image

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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 18 Nov 2018, 00:37:39

dolanbaker wrote:
dohboi wrote:OS wrote: "...you're clearly square in the middle of the "facts don't matter" denialist camp"

Good point, OS. Not much use trying to get through to these hopeless nitwits. They have their delusion, and they're stickin' to it!

Once posters descend to personal insults, they've lost the debate.

So now pointing out there is a class of people called "deniers", short for "climate change deniers" Is an insult? :roll:

No more credible than your arguments about AGW, IMO.

You're like pstarr, being a constant doomer, and then saying calling him "a doomer" is an insult. OK. :razz:

So what politically correct term should I use to point out that you're in denial of mainstream climate science, without triggering you? Sheesh.

If you wear red pants and someone points that out, is that an insult too?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 18 Nov 2018, 06:09:14

Plant,

AND, if there is a cooling then at some point sun spots will return and at that time it will AMPLIFY the warming.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 18 Nov 2018, 06:11:53

dup
Last edited by dolanbaker on Sun 18 Nov 2018, 06:16:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 18 Nov 2018, 06:15:31

Plantagenet wrote:There is no doubt that the earth cooled by 0.5-1.0°C during the Maunder Minimum and past episodes of prolonged low sunspot activity.

There is also no doubt that the change is solar irradiance associated with variations in sunspot numbers is not large enough to cause the observed cooling during the little ice age and prior episodes of low sunspot activity.
This means the small reduction in solar irradiance associated with low sunspot numbers is amplified by various feedback effects. Prof. Zharkova suggests there might be changes in cloud cover due to variations in cosmic rays, for instance---an idea proposed earlier by NASA scientists.

Prof. Zharkova also did not originate the idea that variations in sun spots result in significant climate change....the credit for that should go to Dr. John Eddy, an American astrophysicist with NCAR.

Sunspots and Human Affairs---Dr. John Eddy

The real question here is whether or not the cooling we can expect from the low sun spot numbers will be enough to counteract the anthropogenic warming we are seeing from Greenhouse gases in the atmospheric.

The answer is yes and no. There will probably be some cooling from the low solar irradiance associated with with the minimum in sunspots, but probably not enough to fully counteract the warming. One estimate I saw predicated the greatest possible climate effect of the sunspot minimum would by equivalent to about the rise in global temperatures we see in a decade from Greenhouse Warming. But it won't stop or reverse global warming....it will just retard it slightly.

Lets hope so anyway....at the pace we are on global warming is already melting glaciers and causing wildfires and superstorms and sea level rise to increase at a frightening rate. Any delay is good.

Image

Cheers!

Solar irradiance is only part of the story, the other components of the solar output are also variable, the key point that Professor Valentina Zharkova is getting across is that there are several electromagnetic "dynamos" within the sun's core that go in and out of phase with each other, when they are in phase there is an increased electromagnetic field that produces more sunspots and higher irradiance and conversely when out of phase produce few or no sunspots, weaker magnetic field and lower irradiance. Such an event is about to happen, but in 40 years or so we will be back to strong solar cycles thus this is a temporary event.

But As I have already stated, CAGW (and all its variants) is a scam as it ultimately results in extra taxes being imposed on the general population, remember Al Gore was a politician with many big business links and that they wanted to monetise carbon.

Having said that, I am very conscious of the environmental destruction that is going on, something that is far more dangerous, the elimination of natural habitat, bio-diversity will come back at our children/grandchildren when they find themselves waking up to silent dawns(no birds), no bees (or other beneficial insects) and the only animals in existence are either vermin, farm (for food) or in zoos.

I still firmly believe in the "limits to growth scenario", that was published in the 1970s and recently updated to show that the predicted trends are still on course for a future catastrophe for mankind.

As I have already said, it isn't fossil fuel consumption that is the primary issue, it is the destruction of the natural habitat on the planet that will ultimately doom us at some point in the future. EV's and renewable energy are a step in the right direction, but we really need to put an end to consumerism, this is the greatest waste of resources possible - so much crap is produced that is fit for landfill almost immediately it is removed from the (rubbish) packaging.


I know that people say we need to produce all this crap to keep people in jobs (keep them busy so they don't revolt) but with the high levels of automation we have available these days, we really should only need to work about 20 hours or less a week to earn a living.
It's time to re-evaluate work and money, as things currently stand, a very small number of people have accumulated about 50% of the total value of everything that the rest of the population have earned.

For these elite, CAGW is a great tool to distract the general population from this great imbalancemost of you won't even read this far.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 18 Nov 2018, 06:46:40

Yes I did read that far.

You are right that CC is only one of the challenges we face. And that we are destroying Earth as we knew it.

I would add one point, adding more humans helps nothing, reducing population helps everything.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 18 Nov 2018, 06:57:57

Some years ago my parents passed. They left me a small inheritance. With this I bought 168 acres of Canadian forest, $58,000 USD. It costs me about $1,500 USD in taxes per year. My immediate neighbor, from the USA, clear cut his parcel.

I initially bought the land for selfish reasons but now realize that by siting on it, protecting it from being “developed” I’m making a small but positive change to fight “development and consumption.”

It’s one small thing that many of us here could actually do that would be beneficial in a tangible manner. If everyone who blathered about climate change actually did this, sequester land, it might start to make a difference.

Just an idea to move from complaining to action.
————————-
And I don’t think not having a good bit of money is an excuse. Someone could start a “Go Fund Me” account to buy and sequester land. Then everyone with $5 for a Starbucks treat could have a “Ethical Thursday” when they donate that $5 to the “Save the planet” account.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 18 Nov 2018, 07:30:15

Newfie wrote:Yes I did read that far.

You are right that CC is only one of the challenges we face. And that we are destroying Earth as we knew it.

I would add one point, adding more humans helps nothing, reducing population helps everything.

Yes, reduction of human population is the key issue and will be the hardest to achieve.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 18 Nov 2018, 07:32:27

Newfie wrote:
It’s one small thing that many of us here could actually do that would be beneficial in a tangible manner. If everyone who blathered about climate change actually did this, sequester land, it might start to make a difference.

Just an idea to move from complaining to action.



In regards to human overshoot complaining is a sign of feeling powerless in the face of daunting challenges.

If you really think about it when you are complaining you are focusing on yourself and your discontent.

The minute you put the focus off of yourself and on to others, the planet, healing, then suddenly complaining disappears. It really is just that simple.

Using your monetary resources to buy a forest is taking assets that could have increased further your digital net worth and instead you are putting this to work for the planet which ultimately means putting it to work for the resiliency of humanity. In other words, you are focusing your monetary and material resources not on yourself but on others.

Many people do not understand that your personal well being increases when you give, not when you hunger to take more. We live in an age where this simple truth has been lost. And yet it is the single most important component of well being. And this simple truth is perhaps even more pertinent now in the age of human overshoot.

That is one of the reasons I always have a chuckle over survivalists with a rabbit in the hole mentality of buying guns and securing their private bunker in preparation for the collapse. This whole orientation is still focused on the self, an orientation that hangs desperately on to ones advantage over others; their bunker, their canned foods, their guns. Those rich scared assholes buying land in New Zealand. What a joke.

Give, serve, buy forests, be selfless. Help people. Take the focus off of your fucking selves. Take the focus off of your petty survival and rabbit in the hole mentality. Cowardly.

Geez, it really is just that simple and most people just don't get it.

Here is an example of a frightened human being.

Cog wrote:With AR prices as low as I've ever seen them and ammo prices very low, there is no excuse not to stock up. In the run up to the 2020 general election, prices are going to rise accordingly. Strike now to buy what you need.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Cog » Sun 18 Nov 2018, 07:42:51

I like guns Ibon. I'm armed so I won't be frightened. There are real politicians with real legislation to ban guns and confiscate them. Washinton state just turned .22 caliber semiautomatic rifles into assualt rifles. Don't piss down my back and call it rain. I do know the difference. The left intends to disarm Americans. For what purpose, I'll leave to your imagination. I do know the purpose in communist and fascist regimes who have done it in the past.

I'll end this hijack of a thread here Ibon, but you did start it.
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