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Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby sparky » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 07:15:39

.
@ dolanbaker , I mentioned the first C 25 sunspot a bit further up ,
the source is from the official body , it's very scientific ,
it is from the new cycle because the polarity is inverted
the only query is that it appeared at quite a low latitude ,
usually a few form close to the solar poles and after a few years there is more and more toward the equator
their frequency is seen in the "butterfly diagram "
http://k9la.us/Butterfly_Diagrams_and_Solar_Minimum.pdf
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 18:35:41

sparky wrote:.
@ dolanbaker , I mentioned the first C 25 sunspot a bit further up ,
the source is from the official body , it's very scientific ,
it is from the new cycle because the polarity is inverted
the only query is that it appeared at quite a low latitude ,
usually a few form close to the solar poles and after a few years there is more and more toward the equator
their frequency is seen in the "butterfly diagram "
http://k9la.us/Butterfly_Diagrams_and_Solar_Minimum.pdf

Thanks I knew I'd seen it somewhere.
It's that low latitude that that increases the risk of it being a false positive, otherwise cycle 25 could end up seriously overlapping 24.

On the other hand maybe having two opposing cycles together may be the cause of the low sunspot count in the first place, one cancelling out the other.

A thought that provokes far more question that I could possibly answer.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby sparky » Sun 15 Jan 2017, 07:16:26

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"A thought that provokes far more question that I could possibly answer."
You are in good company
The scientist are pretty sure they can locate the sun ,
there are some good observations of its surface and some hypothesis of its interior
as for its precise working , it's a bit of a dog breakfast
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dissident » Sun 15 Jan 2017, 11:30:01

Tanada wrote:All these projections that Cycle 25 will be as weak as 24 are unwarranted IMO.

They are based on computer models that use the current cycle as if it were a baseline, or so it appears. If you look at the available history going back to the 1600's there was a 100 year low cycle at the start of the 19th, 20th, and now 21st century. The next cycle after each of those low cycles however was much closer to an 'average' cycle. Looking at this I believe cycle 25 will be close to average no matter what the computer models are saying.


The problem is not the use of computer models. The problem is the lack of governing dynamical equations for the Sun that can be used to simulate its evolution. It is a highly nonlinear MHD plasma system. We cannot measure its interior since it is opaque to EM radiation (worse than the electrolytic oceans on Earth) and we do not understand the various dynamical scales at work in this system so we can't even start to approximate. On Earth the Navier-Stokes equations do a very good job of describing the atmospheric and ocean systems. We can readily simulate synoptic and mesoscale structures that are important for the atmospheric evolution. In the case of the oceans we have a problem of resolving the small eddy scale which exerts a dominating influence on the dynamics. But high resolution ocean models are available. Nothing of sort exists for the Sun and we only have empirical, aka black box statistical, models.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby sparky » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 06:43:13

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The warmists are going to love this ,
as a upstanding proponent of the Solar influence on climate ,
and having some feeble claims to intellectual honesty .
this must be said ,
the relationship between total solar irradiance and the Earth surface temperature is very weak
the present low sunspot count has not any correlation with present day global temperature .

it doesn't affect my opinion that warmists have the scientific integrity of chickens fed on rubbish
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 13:11:08

Thanks for the concession, spark.

Do you have any new theories you care to share with us, or any correlations you are tracking these days. One thing I have always been impressed with about you is that if you see that a correlation you have hypothesized does not pan out, you are ready to admit it, rather than holding on to it in spite of the evidence.

Was there something in particular that convinced you on this one?
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 09:43:36

Using more than a half-century of observations, Japanese astronomers have discovered that the microwaves coming from the sun at the minimums of the past five solar cycles have been the same each time, despite large differences in the maximums of the cycles.

In Japan, continuous four-frequency solar microwave observations (1, 2, 3.75 and 9.4 GHz) began in 1957 at the Toyokawa Branch of the Research Institute of Atmospherics, Nagoya University. In 1994, the telescopes were relocated to NAOJ Nobeyama Campus, where they have continued observations up to the present.

A research group led by Masumi Shimojo, assistant professor at NAOJ Chile Observatory, including members from Nagoya University, Kyoto University, and Ibaraki University, analyzed the more than 60 years of solar microwave data from these telescopes. They found that microwave intensities and spectra at the minimums of the latest five cycles were the same every time. In contrast, during the periods of maximum solar activity, both the intensity and spectrum varied from cycle to cycle.

Masumi Shimojo says, "Other than sunspot observations, uniform long-term observations are rare in solar astronomy. It is very meaningful to discover a trend extending beyond a single solar cycle. This is an important step in understanding the creation and amplification of solar magnetic fields, which generate sunspots and other solar activity."

The sun goes through a cycle of active and quiet periods approximately once every 11 years. This "solar cycle" is often associated with the number of sunspots, but there are other types of solar activity, as well. So simply counting the number of sunspots is insufficient to understand the solar activity conditions.

Microwaves are another indicator of solar activity. Microwaves, unlike sunspots, can be observed on cloudy days. Also, monitoring multiple frequencies of microwaves makes it possible to calculate the relative strength at each frequency (this is called the spectrum).


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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 14:04:48

Maybe the microwave energy levels are an indicator of temperatures within the sun's core, which appears to be very stable.
But as far as sunspots go, they're going as predicted as we approach the next minimum.

Interesting to note that the rate of decline in recorded sunspots between 2015 to 2017 is the same as that of 2002 to 2004 but starting from a far lower level, could that indicate a long period of zero sunspots during the next minimum.

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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 10 Nov 2018, 18:10:46

Below is a link to presentation by Prof. Zharkova on discovering the behavior of sunspots is a function of the interaction of the sun's two magnetic fields. She also links how the "suns" stable output can be effected by magnetic fields which shows up in past climate changes. Very interesting, one thing new for me was the fact that the sun has motion relative to the earth due to various gravity effects. So in addition to the Earth's fairly well known Milankovitch cycles which affect the amount of insolation the north and south hemisphere's receive, we also have periodicity of the sun moving closer or farther away from earth. And Dr. Zharkova is predicting a colder climate in 2025 so stock up the larder!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXLqOzJ27YA
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 10 Nov 2018, 22:09:46

http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 15:28:16

https://watchers.news/2018/11/11/valent ... m=facebook

Image

https://youtu.be/M_yqIj38UmY

This prediction revealed the presence of a grand cycle of 350-400 years, with a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity features reported in the past millennia: Maunder (grand) Minimum (1645-1715), Wolf (grand) minimum (1200), Oort (grand) minimum (1010-1050), Homer (grand) minimum (800-900 BC); the medieval (900-1200) warm period, Roman (400-10BC) and other warm periods.

This approach also predicts the modern grand minimum upcoming in 2020-2055.


If these predictions are correct, we're going to have a couple of cooler decades before temperatures rise again and we don't have too long to wait to test this either.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 15:44:00

dolanbaker wrote:If these predictions are correct, we're going to have a couple of cooler decades before temperatures rise again and we don't have too long to wait to test this either.

Or, more likely IMO, even IF these predictions are correct, "cooler" is relative.

If that slows the rate of warming a bit or even better, moderately, that's a lucky break for us. But given all the inputs, just like for solar variation, I wouldn't want to hang my hat on this and predict "cooler decades ahead" as we continue to burn more and more FF's globally.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 16:00:04

dolanbaker wrote:If these predictions are correct, we're going to have a couple of cooler decades before temperatures rise again and we don't have too long to wait to test this either.

BTW, did you bother to listen to this? It's VERY CLEARLY the usual denailist claptrap, worthy of Fox News denial. Even outfits like Fox News have (finally) stopped playing this game, since it hurts their credibility (outside the hard core denialists) so much.

I'm really disappointed. I expected FAR more than (with NO context, supporting data, methodology, etc) he keeps making the conspiracy theory kind of claim that the data has been "tampered with", without the context that science changes, and adjustments are made as our understanding changes.

It's also rather clear that since about 1975 the rate of warming is accelerating as a trend. Babbling constantly about 1940 doesn't change that one bit.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 16:41:55

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:If these predictions are correct, we're going to have a couple of cooler decades before temperatures rise again and we don't have too long to wait to test this either.

BTW, did you bother to listen to this? It's VERY CLEARLY the usual denailist claptrap, worthy of Fox News denial. Even outfits like Fox News have (finally) stopped playing this game, since it hurts their credibility (outside the hard core denialists) so much.

I'm really disappointed. I expected FAR more than (with NO context, supporting data, methodology, etc) he keeps making the conspiracy theory kind of claim that the data has been "tampered with", without the context that science changes, and adjustments are made as our understanding changes.

It's also rather clear that since about 1975 the rate of warming is accelerating as a trend. Babbling constantly about 1940 doesn't change that one bit.


For starters the presenter was female, and the video is 1:35 long, so you clearly didn't view before commenting.
I just watched the entire video, very interesting that the mathematical theory can be mapped almost exactly to the recent historic data.
We will probably find out within a decade whether this theory is correct ot not.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dissident » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 20:36:05

This BS about variation of solar output as being the only relevant factor for global warming is tired and debunked. The clowns making the claim that some 0.2% variation in the TSI will lead to an ice age are simply morons who are uneducated and illiterate. Some of them claim to be experts in solar physics and spectroscopy. More like some two bit contractors with a high school education that experience the cranium inflation syndrome and think they are professors.

Compared to greenhouse gases, the Sun has discount factors that reduce its variation signal:

f = f1*f2*f3 = 0.175

where

f1=0.5 from the shape of the planet
f2=0.5 from the fact that only half the surface area is illuminated at any given time
f3=0.7 the average surface albedo which prevents the incident solar radiation from affecting the energy
budget of the atmosphere-ocean system

Any change in greenhouse gas burden is not subject to this reduction factor and acts throughout the volume of the troposphere including at night. Shortwave radiation albedo does not affect IR trapping by greenhouse gases.

The 22 year solar magnetic reversal cycle produces a routine variation spanning 0.2% of TSI from trough to peak. There is no evidence of any reversal of warming during these cycles. Longer term sunspot variations that affect the TSI in the same range are not going to offset greenhouse gas induced global warming.

You can thank your lucky stars that we do not orbit a star that has output variation enough to freeze or fry life on this planet.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 21:58:47

dolanbaker wrote:
For starters the presenter was female, and the video is 1:35 long, so you clearly didn't view before commenting.
I just watched the entire video, very interesting that the mathematical theory can be mapped almost exactly to the recent historic data.
We will probably find out within a decade whether this theory is correct ot not.

I don't know what happened.

I watched about 30 minutes of SOME video with a guy presenting that showed a lot of graphs claiming the data showing global temperature data were wrong, changed, a conspiracy, etc.

All I can think is I somehow clicked on some link on the side or something. My bad on that. (Senility or distraction, I can't say. Unlike many on this site -- when I screw up, I admit it).

But the comments above pointing out the facts re solar variance are long known and clear in scientific circles tell the tale.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Thu 15 Nov 2018, 22:14:40, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 22:05:33

dissident wrote:You can thank your lucky stars that we do not orbit a star that has output variation enough to freeze or fry life on this planet.

Great post. I only knew enough to point out that solar variation IS NOT THE ANSWER, no matter how many ways denialists want to try to claim it is, using slightly different words, slides, etc.

Clearly if we didn't have the appropriate conditions to support life evolving as we know it, we wouldn't be around to talk about it. It makes one (or at least me) wonder how rare intelligent life (defined as technological civilizations) might be -- given how long it would take such life to evolve to that state from single celled organisms, given how relatively stable, forgiving, etc. the environment would have to be.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 15:14:25

On top of the (always) excellent points from dis, there are the stunningly obvious facts that, if it were solar output variation causing the current warming:

•Days would be heating faster than nights
•Summers would be heating faster than winters
•Tropics would be heating faster than the poles
•The stratosphere would be heating faster than the lower troposphere...

But in fact the opposite of all these is what is actually happening, which can only be explained by increased greenhouse gasses (which is also obviously very well documented).

Sad to see how easily some folks can be duped by people who present themselves as offering legitimate science but are actually charlatans push utter crap.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 17:51:33

dohboi wrote:On top of the (always) excellent points from dis, there are the stunningly obvious facts that, if it were solar output variation causing the current warming:

•Days would be heating faster than nights
•Summers would be heating faster than winters
•Tropics would be heating faster than the poles
•The stratosphere would be heating faster than the lower troposphere...

But in fact the opposite of all these is what is actually happening, which can only be explained by increased greenhouse gasses (which is also obviously very well documented).

Sad to see how easily some folks can be duped by people who present themselves as offering legitimate science but are actually charlatans push utter crap.

Well taking one point at a time
    The peak temperatures that have been paraded to be as a result of global warming are generally daytime temperatures
    The Sun would generate the same amount of energy all year round so would not care about the Earth's relative orbital position
    the relative difference in solar energy between the equator and the pole would be the same, no matter what the solar output is
    Solar energy is transmitted into the atmosphere from the ground up not from the atmosphere down, as for the stratosphere warming up https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/discus ... g+Underway, we have a sudden stratospheric weather event in progress right now.

The sunspots are merely an indication of solar magnetic activity and in times of high activity, the sun does generate more energy both visible light and EM radiation, the EM radiation provides the earth with a stronger magnetic field that in turn reduces the quantity of cloud inducing cosmic rays that enter the atmosphere.

Climate change has F-all to do with CO2, it has everything to do with the terraforming of the planet which has completely destroyed the the local environment is so many areas. All of the so called climate change events are entirely caused by human activity, for example replacing a natural valley with houses, concrete and "water management", when the water management fails, it is blamed on climate change rather than the people who built the town. Humans really need to accept responsibility for the damage they are causing and not be duped into believing in false enemies. People are being duped into believing that spending money on reducing CO2 will solve climate change, complete rubbish!
The solution is to return most of the terraformed lands to their natural state, no one is going to admit that this is the correct solution as it is bad for business.

The sun is the prime source of energy on this planet (and all the other planets in the solar system) and any variations in its electromagnetic output will affect the Earth, and it is predicted that the next two cycles will continue to decline while the internal EM fields cancel each other out and then to start increasing again after about 2060.
Come back in ten years, we'll know who is correct.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 19:18:11

dolanbaker wrote:Climate change has F-all to do with CO2

Once you make that statement, you're clearly square in the middle of the "facts don't matter" denialist camp. It doesn't matter how you frame the objection -- sunspots, conspiracies, evil spirits, whatever. You just lose all credibility with serious scientific thinking and a mountain of evidence re AGW.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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