Pops wrote:AdamB wrote:Pops wrote:What does "geoscience" have to do with swallowing every pronouncement made by whatever oil company/country shill as gospel?
It doesn't, if that is the only information Lahherrere uses.
You are wandering in circles.
First you wondered why JL dosen't use the old PC database
I showed he did so you complained that he adjusts for obvious misinformation
I said "because it is misinformation"
now you say he must be wrong if PC is all he uses.
But it isn't "all he uses" because he attempts to refine it's political errors.
LOL
The technical term here is "Gish Gallop"
Rather than simply accuse him randomly, why not read the article?
The plot posted above includes several datasets including EIA that he ran the HL on and got 5000GB and peak in 2040 because of NGPL.
This paper has a range of 2019 to 2040 for peak due to different classifications. The thing I've always liked about JL as long as I've read him, he has been very straightforward about how poor the data is and consequently how big a crapshoot are forecasts. I tend to take him at his word on that because he actually was affiliated with PC and presumably knows where their stats came from. Consequently he generally talks in 1000GB units, any more would be pretend to accuracy that's impossible based on the nature of the input. That he is down to billion barrel in this article accuracy is telling, for me at least.
The total oil reserve is very well established, 2-3 tb, from the hubbert curve and geology.
The Permian basin is 75k miles and makes half the oil. That's 2% of the land area of America, and assuming 10% of the land is near fault zones where oil is, it's 20% of the land for half the oil. America is using basically all the land oil could form.
Within permain its all in a 300ft rock layer with 10% recovery, similar TOC, generation fraction and soluble fraction with 1/3 the land worth anything. That's a 200 trillion barrels of rock which reduce to 100-200b oil. Fitting more oil requires inflating the generation fraction, finding new benches and other things that I'm sure would happen by now. That puts total American reserves remaining around 200 billion barrels.
So if America consumes around five times more oil than average, on 100% of its land, then the other 95% of the world has 4Tx5=20T barrels, except that Permian TOC is exceptional so we get down to 5T. Then a large share of that is extra heavy and other ambiguous cases so the 50th percentile of what anyone considers oil neatly comes out to 2.5 trillion barrels.
Just five opec nations have 40% of these reserves. The areas of ghawar, burgan, Ahvaz, Zuluf, and Rumailia per reserve are ten times less than permian, given their better recovery. The relation between the amount of oil in the ground and just flat land area is constant around the globe and theres no other space left to put it. It's not a matter of discovery, discovery is logically impossible because oil is already so abundant it takes up the entire space.
So it's not really a matter of speculation, claiming there is an order of magnitude more reserves begs the question of where they fit, and the rest is just doing the detailed math on particular fields- which is what reserve estimates are so this debate is pointless because we don't have that data.
I would of course create a blog, pay mods to advertise it, and have something to do with my time. Even if just Adam, Gmark, snow and other trolls post there i welcome their trolls.