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Russian Peak

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 15 Aug 2023, 14:18:55

Plantagenet wrote:Peter Zeihan presented this idea in one of his recent Geopolitical youtube videos. As I understand it Peter Zeihan presented this idea in one of his recent Geopolitical youtube videos. As I understand it Zeihan isn't sayingisn't saying... AND Zeihan... I don't know if Zeihan's right or not


Zeihan Zeihan Zeihan. The guy is a russiaphobe, he'll say anything to bash Putin and the state. An analyst? More like a dreamer. He thinks when the world collapses into anarchy the US will rein supreme because of its demographics, because the US has a growing population. What he fails to realize is that most of those babies are coming from the latino and negro stock, whose idea of progress is banding together in ever larger groups to loot department stores. He also dismisses US debt as unimportant and the fact all the economic energy and minerals have already been looted out of the soil.

Find a new source Plant.
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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 15 Aug 2023, 19:57:39

theluckycountry wrote:Zeihan Zeihan Zeihan.


Yes. Peter Zeihan.

He has a lot of very interesting ideas, doesn't he?

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Most days Peter Zeihan posts interesting short commentaries on YouTube. He's also authored several books.

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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 17 Aug 2023, 11:58:06

I don’t agree with everything he says but on average he is far better than most.

As far as Russia phobe his perspective remains that; from a Russian perspective this war was necessary to block certain strategic weak points and this is the last generation when Russia would have the ability to do so. He has surly presented Russia’s motives in a more favorable light than Putin.

Further he has been saying all along “this is Russias war to loose” all along. I have not heard him repeat that in the last 6 weeks or so, but that may he because he sees the balance changing.

He is not a supporter of Putin or his measures.
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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 21 Aug 2023, 21:39:04

He's a rabid supporter of a dying empire is what he is. I read his latest analysis about America Ruling the world in the decades to come due solely on demographics. Demographics? If billions of people was all it took then Africa india and china would have been leading the world decades ago.

It takes either abundant cheap labor or abundant cheap energy, which are essentially the same thing. So for him to be correct in his analysis either the shale oil fields will have to miraculously go from 2:1 to 50:1 or the majority of the US public will need to begin working for slave labor rates like what built China and India's economies. Can you imagine either of those occurring? He's grasping at straws. I think you would agree that what he thinks of the state of the rest of the world is irrelevant when compared to the home nation collapsing into poverty.

I know it's hard to imagine that happening but it's happened hundreds of times throughout history and the triggers are basically always the same. Enormous debts and vast military overstretch.
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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby jato0072 » Tue 22 Aug 2023, 00:18:48

I read his latest analysis about America Ruling the world


Fantasy sells books and speaking gigs. Peter knows what positive narratives to deliver in order to bring home the paycheck.
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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 22 Aug 2023, 06:14:07

I fear this response is too long for a close reading, my apologies. I di try to keep it concise but it is a large topic.

If you are to follow only the brief daily videos then you may get that impression, that is inaccurate. He is predicting increased regionalization worldwide due to the USA stepping back from Breton Woods guarantees and shipping becoming more uncertain and also increasing competition for oil/energy. Demographics is only a part of the analysis.

Yes Peter is selling to an audience which is mostly corporate America but which includes to global elite, repeat gigs speaking to Indian audiences. He compartmentalizes his desires from his reports, so what he reports is what he thinks will happen not what he wants.

His predictions are all rather short term. He is looking at 20 year timelines. He makes the odd reference out further but these have little detail. Listen to him with that constraint.

His analysis is not rosey for anyone, it is just that he sees the USA sinking slower than others. His analysis is seldom about the USA alone. He looks at the NAFTA block (US, Medico, Canada) as a functioning unit. And he believes that these 3 working together are large enough and diverse enough to be more or less self supporting.

He is fairly positive on India itself being sufficiently large to create its own economy.

Africa is a hot mess because while it has much population growth it lacks the means to stabilize let alone develop.

He is pretty high in parts of SE Asia and some if SA. Japan has adapted by off shoring production to low labor cost countries in SE Asia but their labor costs are rising which will pinch Japan.

He sees great troubles ahead for Europe and China.

Regarding China Peter’s message has 2 major thrusts. The first is that their economy is really messed up due to Xi’s ham handed management. If you think debt is a problem for the USA know China’s debt problem is far worse. Second is that China has politicized theirs data gathering process, their statistics are horrid. That means they themselves do not have adequate means to monitor and manage the situation, inadequate feedback, driving in the dark without headlights. Witness the recent adjustment in population numbers, which are closer to but still far off independent analysis. They have missed their own population count by about 130 million people.
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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 24 Aug 2023, 17:56:00

He is predicting increased regionalization worldwide due to the USA stepping back from Breton Woods


JOHANNESBURG (AP) — Iran and Saudi Arabia were among six countries invited Thursday to join the BRICS bloc of developing economies in a move that showed signs of strengthening a China-Russia coalition as tensions with the West spiral higher.

The United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Egypt and Ethiopia were also set to enter BRICS from Jan. 1, 2024, joining current members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa to make an 11-nation bloc.

https://apnews.com/article/brics-russia ... 5c068b7a50

Well I guess it's regonalization for those former enemies in the middle east but the BLOCK is worldwide, and has all the cheap oil basically. I wouldn't be surprised if Iraq joins one day too, if they can escape the enforced system they now live under. Big changes afoot!

Personally I see nothing wrong with reduced populations, it makes good sense in a world where food is 80% or more dependent on fossil fuels. The only issue is what to do with the unproductive old people, like most of us 8)

Population decline is a critical issue in the West because our social security systems are funded by tax on the young workers. But China, Russia and many other big populations don't have these liabilities so they can take a reduction and simply 'reset' their business models, so to speak. SS, it's called the third rail isn't it? Governments dance around the topic but they never go so far as to explain how they are going to fund half their populations in the future, aside from somehow cashing in the filing cabinets full of treasury bonds they have. Private pensions sound great on paper too but the GFC showed us that it's not money under the mattress. It can vanish overnight in a financial collapse.


George Bush Says There is No Social security problem. He is seen here with Susan Chapman of the Bureau of Public Debt. "I went there because I’m trying to make a point about the Social Security trust." All the money is there

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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 25 Aug 2023, 12:21:28

theluckycountry wrote:George Bush Says There is No Social security problem.



So does Joe Biden.

"I will not cut a single Social Security or Medicare benefit. In fact, I'm going to extend the Medicare trust fund for at least two decades. And we'll not raise taxes on anyone making over $400,000. And I'll pay for it all ....by making the wealthy and big corporations pay just a little bit more."

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Problem solved!

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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 25 Aug 2023, 18:29:05

Well at the rate they are printing money, Trillions by the year, it's quite possible I suppose.

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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 25 Aug 2023, 20:43:56

theluckycountry wrote:Well at the rate they are printing money, Trillions by the year, it's quite possible I suppose.


Exactly right.

As the Bible says: money answereth all things. (Ecclesiastes 10:19)

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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 27 Aug 2023, 10:12:05

Did you read the next verse plant?
Ecc 10:20 Curse not the king, no not in thy thought; and curse not the rich in thy bedchamber: for a bird of the air shall carry the voice, and that which hath wings shall tell the matter.

The bible is a wise book. Glad I use a vpn :lol:
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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 31 Aug 2023, 11:52:52

I thought this was interesting, Russia having internal fuel shortage. Especially curbing exports.


Summary

Oil plants repairs, weaker rouble spark fuel crunch
Fuel wholesale prices jump, retail prices are capped
Government works to solve crisis by trying to curb exports



https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... reddit.com
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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 31 Aug 2023, 18:54:17

Will be interesting to see how OPEC upcoming production cuts will play into Russia's internal fuel issue; market distortions such as retail price caps, always lead to disruption.
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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 31 Aug 2023, 19:03:16

Yes, there are so many ways to make ipulate the markets it is hard to know what the true situation is.

And the green revolution is beginning to make a dent, how big I have no idea.
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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 06 Sep 2023, 04:18:35

Newfie wrote:
And the green revolution is beginning to make a dent, how big I have no idea.


Making for a big increase in oil consumption too. Massive amounts of oil are being redirected to build, ship, and erect all that tech. The greater we expand it the more oil will be consumed, it's as simple as that. Perhaps one day they may divert some of that windmill energy to balance the books but at the moment electricity demand for all else is increasing faster than rebuildable technology is going on stream.

Then of course you have to allow for it's replacement in 15 or 20 years.


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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby Tuike » Mon 02 Oct 2023, 15:44:57

Russia's Gas Production Collapses to Late-Stage USSR Levels -newsweek
The country's state energy giant Gazprom said in its latest report that gas production in the first half of 2023 was 179.45 billion cubic meters (bcm). Gazprom added that this represents a year-on-year decrease of nearly a quarter (24.7 percent), and a 26.5 percent drop in gas supplies to the domestic and foreign markets.

Independent Russian-language news outlet Agentstvo reported that Gazprom "has never had such a low production rate in its entire history" and that "the last time there was similar figure was in the Soviet Union in 1978," a year when 372.1 bcm were produced.
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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 02 Oct 2023, 17:00:07

Well that's good news for Russia, cause the gas is like money in the bank. Bad news for Western Europe though with their collapsing industries. A lot of that Gas used to go into fertilizer production, but who needs food hey?

2019: China is using the Lion's share, China, a BRICS member, that gets cheap gas from the world's leading supplier, Russia.
Image


Yara International ASA is a Norwegian chemical company. It's an octupus and led the world in fertilizer production.

November 11, 2022
Yara – the world’s largest producer of AdBlue – calls on the European Union and national governments to act urgently and decisively to ensure Europe reinforces its strategic autonomy. Produced in the same plants that make fertilizers, AdBlue is essential for a functioning transport sector and for cleaning the air we breathe... The manufacture of AdBlue is an integrated part of the production of nitrogen for fertilizers. This vital industry uses natural gas as feedstock.

Weaponized by Putin, this critical resource is now at risk. Skyrocketing natural gas prices have already led to widespread production curtailments. But an outright stop of gas supplies would hit more than just the production of fertilizers. The European food chain relies on nitrogen industry outputs essential also for the meat, food processing and beverage industries. And most critically, for the unbroken low temperature-controlled network necessary for preserving food as it travels through the supply chain.

https://www.yara.com/corporate-releases ... as-adblue/

Norway is a huge oil producer, but no gas?

April 28, 2023
Yara curbs European production amid lower fertiliser prices
OSLO, April 28 (Reuters) -
Yara (YAR.OL) has idled more than half of its European ammonia production capacity due to a steep drop in fertiliser prices and reported first-quarter earnings well below forecasts on Friday, as farmers delayed purchases hoping for even lower prices.

One of the world's biggest fertiliser makers, Yara last year capped its European ammonia production due to a surge in gas costs. Natural gas is a key feed stock in ammonia production.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 023-04-28/

Reads like spin to me. Russia isn't exporting shit and they cut production due to falling demand for an essential? More likely they can't make a profit, or demand really has collapsed because nations can't afford it? Interesting times.
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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 31 Jan 2024, 20:44:27

Time for European's to connect some dots.

Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe down 56% in 2023 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 024-01-02/

White House’s Pausing Of Giant LNG Export Projects Is Just What Russia Wants

Perhaps the single most important factor in NATO’s united stand against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the quick substitution of the cheap and plentiful Russian gas that had fueled economic expansion in Germany for decades with emergency liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from the U.S. and Qatar. Without these new supplies...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas ... ia-Wa.html

QatarEnergy halts Red Sea LNG shipping https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/qatar-delay ... -1.2025787

Russia Sees Its Natural Gas Exports Recovering on Higher Shipments to China
Pipeline shipments to rise 18% to 108 billion cubic meters https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-to-china
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Re: Russian Peak

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 30 Mar 2024, 09:55:18

theluckycountry wrote:He's a rabid supporter of a dying empire is what he is. I read his latest analysis about America Ruling the world in the decades to come due solely on demographics. Demographics? If billions of people was all it took then Africa india and china would have been leading the world decades ago.

It takes either abundant cheap labor or abundant cheap energy, which are essentially the same thing. So for him to be correct in his analysis either the shale oil fields will have to miraculously go from 2:1 to 50:1 or the majority of the US public will need to begin working for slave labor rates like what built China and India's economies. Can you imagine either of those occurring? He's grasping at straws. I think you would agree that what he thinks of the state of the rest of the world is irrelevant when compared to the home nation collapsing into poverty.

I know it's hard to imagine that happening but it's happened hundreds of times throughout history and the triggers are basically always the same. Enormous debts and vast military overstretch.
I think it actually takes being the one that all of the effort is being done for. That can come down to random chance. Some people do, more or less, base their lives on luck. Finding your own good, though. Deciding what that is for you, then pursuing it. That is harder. Because that's the only way to separate yourself from your background, from what raised you versus who you are in yourself. How much of a democratic reflection are you? Are you in any way unique? What role does complaint perform for you? Answer those questions and you will be well on your way. Then go out and spend your money accordingly. Because how you do that is probably the only thing any of us can do.
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