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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 14:10:47

Sort of a good news/bad news story.

Arctic methane bubbling up to the surface but not contributing much to green house gasses.

https://www.newsweek.com/methane-bubble ... ic-1484666
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 14:12:58

Cog wrote:I'll be glad once we are past this tipping point we are endlessly warned about. Will make social engineering sort of pointless. Then we can get back to the business of unrestrained capitalism.


I see you have an opinion, we all do.

Upon what information do you base your dismissal of global warming?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 14:14:26

Yonnipun wrote:Runaway global warming is not possible according to the rules of physics. CO2 or any other gas has no ability to heat up earth. The sun is the heat source.

Spouting nonsense that says the OPPOSITE of what the science says, doesn't make it correct.

CO2 doesn't "heat" anything directly. But it DOES act like a blanket and prevent enough heat from leaving the earth (more as the CO2 increases) to cause net heating. That's basic science and has plenty of data / evidence behind it.

Yes, the sun is the heat source. And look at how different the climate of Venus is vs. the earth -- and a huge part of that difference is a much higher CO2 level in Venus' atmosphere.

But do babble on. I know you will. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 14:28:19

Heineken wrote:Years and years ago on this website I said that global warming would be a far more important issue in the longer run than peak oil (which at the time appeared to be happening, but wasn't). Since then, what we know about global warming has become relentlessly more dire, and the worst-case scenarios keep getting worse. I do think we have the beginnings of runaway global warming. And I do believe that this is the thing that gets us, our civilization. It is perfectly designed by nature to destroy us. For one thing, even with a clear picture of what's coming, we keep doing the same thing about it that we've done all along---nothing. How could we do much, when our civilization EVOLVED on the grubby back of hydrocarbons? CO2 concentrations continue to rise, exponentially I think. For that matter, it's probably too late to do anything to stop or possibly even slow the juggernaut of warming, as more and more positive-feedback loops get entrained. We've released the tiger and now it's going to eat us, thrash around as we may. And . . . what happens when real panic sets in? When the dim bulb in the mass mind lights up? When the population of, say, Pakistan swarms across its northern borders? We will probably destroy ourselves even faster than unlivable temperatures do. I think that by 2100 the civilization is dead, we are largely barbarians, and the population is reduced to well under 1 billion, possibly to just a few million (esp. if there's nuclear war). "Sad."



Well said.

I would only take exception that climate change will be the source of our downfall. IMHO first we have to get past a financial collapse, but after that we have other resilience depletion issue to address which include the availability of fresh water and soil depletion. I think there is a good chance that both soil and water depletion will do more faster than climate change, with climate change making the soil and water problem worse.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby careinke » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 22:04:31

jedrider wrote:If you check air travel prices, they are incredible. I presume the airlines make money on business travel and then sell, probably, half their tickets as non-refundable, non-transferable, non-changeable on a break-even basis. This makes perfect sense as so many regions are so dependent upon travel to prop up their economies (as most manufacturing has moved to very low income areas of the world).

I'm conflicted whether to be a flier and ruin all future life or not be a flier and ruin life on a more immediate timescale. Yes, a dilemma.


I've heard just the opposite, business and first class are subsidized by the cattle car in the back, otherwise Business and First class would be about double.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 22:48:02

careinke wrote:
jedrider wrote:If you check air travel prices, they are incredible. I presume the airlines make money on business travel and then sell, probably, half their tickets as non-refundable, non-transferable, non-changeable on a break-even basis. This makes perfect sense as so many regions are so dependent upon travel to prop up their economies (as most manufacturing has moved to very low income areas of the world).

I'm conflicted whether to be a flier and ruin all future life or not be a flier and ruin life on a more immediate timescale. Yes, a dilemma.


I've heard just the opposite, business and first class are subsidized by the cattle car in the back, otherwise Business and First class would be about double.


?? $1353 1st class vs. $335 economy SF-NY. I doubt it. Of course, they couldn't fly as many planes with only 1st class passengers and there are economies of scale. It must be some corollary of Jevon's paradox, that the more efficient some process is, the more of the corresponding resource is used up.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby careinke » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 23:12:07

jedrider wrote:
careinke wrote:
jedrider wrote:If you check air travel prices, they are incredible. I presume the airlines make money on business travel and then sell, probably, half their tickets as non-refundable, non-transferable, non-changeable on a break-even basis. This makes perfect sense as so many regions are so dependent upon travel to prop up their economies (as most manufacturing has moved to very low income areas of the world).

I'm conflicted whether to be a flier and ruin all future life or not be a flier and ruin life on a more immediate timescale. Yes, a dilemma.


I've heard just the opposite, business and first class are subsidized by the cattle car in the back, otherwise Business and First class would be about double.


?? $1353 1st class vs. $335 economy SF-NY. I doubt it. Of course, they couldn't fly as many planes with only 1st class passengers and there are economies of scale. It must be some corollary of Jevon's paradox, that the more efficient some process is, the more of the corresponding resource is used up.


How many economy seats are there per one first class seat?? I'd be willing to bet it's more than four if you include the lounge etc., etc. Not to mention the free perks that cattle car passengers have to pay for.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/01/31/airline-perks-first-class-passengers-getting-out-control/2855145001/
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Yonnipun » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 05:24:41

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Yonnipun wrote:Runaway global warming is not possible according to the rules of physics. CO2 or any other gas has no ability to heat up earth. The sun is the heat source.

Spouting nonsense that says the OPPOSITE of what the science says, doesn't make it correct.

CO2 doesn't "heat" anything directly. But it DOES act like a blanket and prevent enough heat from leaving the earth (more as the CO2 increases) to cause net heating. That's basic science and has plenty of data / evidence behind it.

Yes, the sun is the heat source. And look at how different the climate of Venus is vs. the earth -- and a huge part of that difference is a much higher CO2 level in Venus' atmosphere.

But do babble on. I know you will. :roll:


Heatloss from earth is via radiation. It is not possible to stop radiation. Blanket helps with conduction and convection but in space there is only radiation. In thermos there is a silver flask that helps to reduce radiant heat but it is also working the other way - the heat from outside can not heat the inside of the thermos as much as it would anymore. Also, the way they explain global warming is scientifically impossible. You can not use the UV light from earth to heat CO2 to rise the overall average. If the temperature of CO2 rises then the surface of earth cools the same amount. Otherwise you create energy out of nothing. Global warming is not possible according to the rules of physics.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 08:04:21

Yonnopin you just failed seventh grade earth science. Go back and carefully read the assignments until you find your mistakes and write a paper explaining them and we can raise your grade to a C minus from it's current F-. 8)
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Yonnipun » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 11:05:36

vtsnowedin wrote:Yonnopin you just failed seventh grade earth science. Go back and carefully read the assignments until you find your mistakes and write a paper explaining them and we can raise your grade to a C minus from it's current F-. 8)


You obviously have not studied physics at all. Or if you did then you only memorized some equations but you do not understand how those equations translate into the real world. Simply said it is not possible to rise the average temperature of earth via UV radiation from the surface of the earth absorbed by CO2. It it creating energy out of nothing. Comparable example - if you have a wood stove in the room you can not use the heat from that stove to heat this stove to rise the average temperature of the stove or even cause a runaway warming of the stove.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 11:27:35

And if you wrap that room with the wood stove with 2 feet of high quality insulation without reducing the burn rate what happens?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Yonnipun » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 11:47:14

Newfie wrote:And if you wrap that room with the wood stove with 2 feet of high quality insulation without reducing the burn rate what happens?


Earth is in space. It is only about radiant heat. If you could somehow reduce radiant heat it works both ways- radiant heat from the sun could not heat earth as much any more. Comparable example is thermos. If you put water into it and put it into the sunshine it would not heat up as much as as water would heat up in the glass or iron cup. Simple physics.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 14:21:39

Yon, help us out here. Are you trying to say simply that GW isn't happening (in spite of the vast evidence that it is). Or are you saying it's happening but 'It's the sun', (in spite of the vast evidence that it's not)?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 16:54:49

dohboi wrote:Yon, help us out here. Are you trying to say simply that GW isn't happening (in spite of the vast evidence that it is). Or are you saying it's happening but 'It's the sun', (in spite of the vast evidence that it's not)?


You're wasting your time and feeding the trolls: Do not FEED the trolls. This will take attention away from the real issues and not enlighten anyone.

The overriding problem is that the greenhouse effect is real and CO2 is it's primary cause (methane?)

and we have derived so much energy by converting O2 to CO2, that we can NEVER pay it back.

Only nature can pay it back on it's own timescale, millions of years perhaps.

The possibility that our planet can veer towards the Venus side of the habitability zone is still real, though outside of our timescale to worry about.

The science has spoken on this and we are only left to ponder what we will do as we go over the precipice.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 18:09:57

Yes, gave him a simple direct physics question and he wanders off into space.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Yonnipun » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 05:17:39

dohboi wrote:Yon, help us out here. Are you trying to say simply that GW isn't happening (in spite of the vast evidence that it is). Or are you saying it's happening but 'It's the sun', (in spite of the vast evidence that it's not)?


I say that greenhouse gases can not heat up earth. They are not an energy source. Sun however is.

The overriding problem is that the greenhouse effect is real and CO2 is it's primary cause (methane?)


Greenhouse gases can not heat up the planet. Without sun the the osceans would freeze two meters thick within 48 hours.

Yes, gave him a simple direct physics question and he wanders off into space.


Stop worrying about greenhouse gases. The can not change the average temperature of earth.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 05:27:39

Yonnipun says,

"You can not use the UV light from earth to heat CO2."

So the Earth is producing UV light?

"it is not possible to rise the average temperature of earth via UV radiation."

You also claim the heat produced by the sun does not affect temperatures.

Do you honestly fail to understand how CO2 prevents the sun's heat from radiating back into space- the thicker the thermal blanket the greater the ability of CO2 to retain heat.

The basic physics of the greenhouse effect were figured out by Sweedish scientist and Nobel Prize winner, Svante Arrhenius MORE THAN 100 YEARS AGO in 1895. He described and demonstrated how solar radiation hits the Earth's surface and then bounces back toward the atmosphere as heat. Gases in the atmosphere trap the sun's solar radiation thereby preventing it from escaping into the void of space. Arrhenius figured out that greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide trap heat close to the Earth's surface, and small changes in the amount of those gases make a big difference in how much heat was trapped.

"Stop worrying about greenhouse gases. The can not change the average temperature of earth."

Yet, regardless of your proclamations, temperatures continue to rise. NOAA recently announced 2019 was the second hottest year in recorded history. The hottest decade in history occurred during the preceding ten years. The last 30 day period of cooler than normal temperatures was in December 1985.

You simply enjoy arguing nonsense for the sake of it. Now that I have explained this factoid of established science I will follow the sound advice of jedrider not to feed the trolls.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Yonnipun » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 06:03:46

So the Earth is producing UV light?


My mistake, shoud have been infrared light.

Do you honestly fail to understand how CO2 prevents the sun's heat from radiating back into space- the thicker the thermal blanket the greater the ability of CO2 to retain heat.


Gases radiate into empty space. Blankets do not work in space like they do on earth. Blankets help with conduction and convection, in space everything is about radiation. Thermos works both ways. Water in it can not be heated up in sunshine as much as in a glass or iron cup.

The basic physics of the greenhouse effect were figured out by Sweedish scientist and Nobel Prize winner, Svante Arrhenius MORE THAN 100 YEARS AGO in 1895. He described and demonstrated how solar radiation hits the Earth's surface and then bounces back toward the atmosphere as heat. Gases in the atmosphere trap the sun's solar radiation thereby preventing it from escaping into the void of space. Arrhenius figured out that greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide trap heat close to the Earth's surface, and small changes in the amount of those gases make a big difference in how much heat was trapped.


The surface cools the same amount as the atmosphere heats up. Also the atmosphere constantly radiates into space. Also the radiation is stronger when the temperature is higher.
Comparable example is wooden stove - you can not bounce the heat from the air of the room back to the stowe to heat it up more and more causing runaway warming of the stowe.

You simply enjoy arguing nonsense for the sake of it. Now that I have explained this factoid of established science I will follow the sound advice of jedrider not to feed the trolls.


I just try to help people. Worrying about climate change could cause serious mental issues for many people. Fortunately I found some forums where everything was quite easily explained how it is absolutely not possible to overheat earth by co2 or any other gas. It is quite simple physics.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 11:40:24

Good points, jed. I'll just point out that there is a dedicated denialist thread and I would appreciate anyone denying the basics of climate science to post their 'ideas' there and not pollute other threads with their notions.
global-warming-climate-change-is-hoax-pt-10-t74241.html
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby dissident » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 13:10:26

As usual amateurs think they know more than actual qualified experts.

1) Solar short wave radiation (SR) (mostly visible band and not UV, and UV is almost all filtered out by ozone in the stratosphere) is absorbed by the ground since albedo for these wavelengths is not 1.0. Naturally a fraction of the incoming SR is reflected back to space since the Earth's surface is not pure black zero albedo at these wavelengths.

2) The absorbed radiation is thermalized. It contributes to heating up the ground, which then emits long wave radiation mostly in the form of infrared (IR).

3) CO2, CH4, H2O, N2O, and other greenhouse gases absorb IR and re-emit it in all directions. Thus 50% of the incoming IR is radiated back to the surface from every atmospheric layer. The downwelling IR flux is again absorbed and re-emitted. So 50% of the 50% radiated towards the surface from a layer is radiated towards space and so on. In order to determine the residence time in this hall of mirrors for IR photons, you need to do radiative transfer integration which can be done from first principles since we know these equations. The hall of mirrors prevents direct radiation of IR photons to space and increases their residence time in the optically thick (to IR) layers of the atmosphere (below 20 km) by orders of magnitude. So the surface IR emissions are able to warm the atmosphere. The amount of this warming is related in a nonlinear fashion to the concentration of greenhouse gases (IR absorbers). There is a logarithmic saturation effect. So 400 ppmv of greenhouse gases produce relatively more warming per molecule than if 95% of the atmosphere was CO2 (Venus-like). Since we are at the most rapidly varying part of the greenhouse effect curve, doubling CO2 is a big deal.

4) N2, O2 and Argon which are almost 100% of the atmosphere are transparent to IR. That means it is only the trace greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, etc) and H2O vapour that can warm the atmosphere. Any warming by direct contact at the surface is relatively week and is not what gives us a liveable atmosphere. Without CO2 the global mean temperatures determined from first principles radiative transfer calculations would be -18 C. The Earth would be an ice Hell.
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