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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 23:12:19

a potential cascade of climate change tipping points aren’t a far-off catastrophe—we’re already living them.

Our Planet May Be Barreling Toward a Tipping Point

https://www.wired.com/story/climate-tipping-point/

Today in the journal Nature, a group of researchers argues that we're closer to tipping nine climate demons than previously believed, and that we're already starting to see some associated effects.

“We argue that the intervention time left to prevent tipping could already have shrunk towards zero, whereas the reaction time to achieve net zero emissions is 30 years at best,” they write. “Hence we might already have lost control of whether tipping happens.”

… these researchers have built a solid case that tipping points aren’t a far-off catastrophe—we’re already living them.

“The evidence that it might actually be happening, that it might be true, is so high, that honestly this is just another very big reason why we need to get our act together and do everything that we could possibly do to fix the problem,” he says. “This is an article that just pulls together many, many good reasons why there is a real emergency, a real urgency here.”
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Cog » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 03:55:00

I'll be glad once we are past this tipping point we are endlessly warned about. Will make social engineering sort of pointless. Then we can get back to the business of unrestrained capitalism.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 12:36:30

Cog wrote:I'll be glad once we are past this tipping point we are endlessly warned about. Will make social engineering sort of pointless. Then we can get back to the business of unrestrained capitalism.


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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Heineken » Sat 25 Jan 2020, 09:19:50

Years and years ago on this website I said that global warming would be a far more important issue in the longer run than peak oil (which at the time appeared to be happening, but wasn't). Since then, what we know about global warming has become relentlessly more dire, and the worst-case scenarios keep getting worse. I do think we have the beginnings of runaway global warming. And I do believe that this is the thing that gets us, our civilization. It is perfectly designed by nature to destroy us. For one thing, even with a clear picture of what's coming, we keep doing the same thing about it that we've done all along---nothing. How could we do much, when our civilization EVOLVED on the grubby back of hydrocarbons? CO2 concentrations continue to rise, exponentially I think. For that matter, it's probably too late to do anything to stop or possibly even slow the juggernaut of warming, as more and more positive-feedback loops get entrained. We've released the tiger and now it's going to eat us, thrash around as we may. And . . . what happens when real panic sets in? When the dim bulb in the mass mind lights up? When the population of, say, Pakistan swarms across its northern borders? We will probably destroy ourselves even faster than unlivable temperatures do. I think that by 2100 the civilization is dead, we are largely barbarians, and the population is reduced to well under 1 billion, possibly to just a few million (esp. if there's nuclear war). "Sad."
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 25 Jan 2020, 12:40:47

Heineken wrote:"Sad"


I agreed with everything you said until that point. If I think 'plastic bag' versus no humankind, the choice is clear to me. However, "Sad" is what we have done to the biosphere. "Oh, well!"

I'm a technologist: It sure is fun. However, it is not nature. We are in direct contempt of nature, and this will be enforced (unlike the Senate and Trump's impeachment) :-)
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby jupiters_release » Sat 25 Jan 2020, 17:33:38

Heineken wrote:I think that by 2100 the civilization is dead


Such an optimist!

You think disappearance of Arctic albedo will be a minor slow feedback process?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 26 Jan 2020, 07:23:32

I do?
Replacement of Arctic ice by dark water is an obvious feedback loop and is anything but "slow." It's another big fat nail in our coffin.
I don't see the whole thing as an optimist/pessimist argument. It's more of an eyes open/eyes closed matter. The facts are very clear to those willing to look at them.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 26 Jan 2020, 07:31:21

jedrider wrote:
Heineken wrote:"Sad"


I agreed with everything you said until that point. If I think 'plastic bag' versus no humankind, the choice is clear to me. However, "Sad" is what we have done to the biosphere. "Oh, well!"

I'm a technologist: It sure is fun. However, it is not nature. We are in direct contempt of nature, and this will be enforced (unlike the Senate and Trump's impeachment) :-)

I meant "sad" sarcastically. That's why I put it in quotation marks. As if our good buddy Trump were saying it. One of his signature remarks. Of course, as a sociopath, he doesn't feel or mean any sadness when he says it.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Cog » Sun 26 Jan 2020, 09:25:30

jedrider wrote:
Cog wrote:I'll be glad once we are past this tipping point we are endlessly warned about. Will make social engineering sort of pointless. Then we can get back to the business of unrestrained capitalism.


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Saving your doomed, but yet valuable soul while making a profit. See how easy that is? But vote for Bernie. He will surely save you. LOL
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 26 Jan 2020, 12:25:31

Heineken's analysis is spot-on.

The current socio-political scheme we're entering into is what will characterize the 21st century.

I feel that a mass die-off is already fully baked into the cake. Who becomes the loser in this game of musical chairs and how death is meted out are unknown, just that it's gonna happen, and long before people die, quality of life will degrade for most.

The question of mitigation therefore is no longer a matter of avoiding the above but merely blunting the maximum impact by some unknown amount. It's hard to fight for increasingly right-hand-list measures (ala Al Bartlett) when generally apocalyptic and soul-crushing conditions are still inevitable.

But I think this is where we already stand due to our inaction and climate scientists/acivists don't want to level with the public for fear of demotivating us.

This explains why the goalposts keep shifting (remember 350.org?) and language carefully spun. This is why we're always on the cusp of passing tipping-points rather than having already passed tipping points despite the fact icemelt is now occuring far faster than even the most dire climate scientists were warning us of. To anyone who has followed the news over the last, let's say, 10 years, this sort of spin becomes patently obvious.

Denialists don't want to do anything and activists don't want to concede that apocalyptic conditions of some magnitude are now inevitable. As such, both sides are now locked into a form of denial, although I suspect many activists know the score but just can't bring themselves to speak it. Either way it's not helping matters.

But the end result is that further debate over mitigation loses its meaning and stakes as climate feedbacks kick in and just washes over us. The world will simply react to crises one by one and not be able to really cope. Seawalls will be erected and fail. The coastlines will be flooded. Crops will fail. Mass migrations will occur. Wealth will be destroyed. Conflict of all sorts will escalate. And it's quite likely that society as a whole will fail to connect the dots and simply see these things as a series of isolated issues.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby jawagord » Sun 26 Jan 2020, 19:16:01

asg70 wrote:Heineken's analysis is spot-on.

The current socio-political scheme we're entering into is what will characterize the 21st century.

I feel that a mass die-off is already fully baked into the cake. Who becomes the loser in this game of musical chairs and how death is meted out are unknown, just that it's gonna happen, and long before people die, quality of life will degrade for most.

The question of mitigation therefore is no longer a matter of avoiding the above but merely blunting the maximum impact by some unknown amount. It's hard to fight for increasingly right-hand-list measures (ala Al Bartlett) when generally apocalyptic and soul-crushing conditions are still inevitable.

But I think this is where we already stand due to our inaction and climate scientists/acivists don't want to level with the public for fear of demotivating us.

This explains why the goalposts keep shifting (remember 350.org?) and language carefully spun. This is why we're always on the cusp of passing tipping-points rather than having already passed tipping points despite the fact icemelt is now occuring far faster than even the most dire climate scientists were warning us of. To anyone who has followed the news over the last, let's say, 10 years, this sort of spin becomes patently obvious.

Denialists don't want to do anything and activists don't want to concede that apocalyptic conditions of some magnitude are now inevitable. As such, both sides are now locked into a form of denial, although I suspect many activists know the score but just can't bring themselves to speak it. Either way it's not helping matters.

But the end result is that further debate over mitigation loses its meaning and stakes as climate feedbacks kick in and just washes over us. The world will simply react to crises one by one and not be able to really cope. Seawalls will be erected and fail. The coastlines will be flooded. Crops will fail. Mass migrations will occur. Wealth will be destroyed. Conflict of all sorts will escalate. And it's quite likely that society as a whole will fail to connect the dots and simply see these things as a series of isolated issues.


OK Doomer. Seriously none of this climate apocalypse will happen. But there is help for you, for your level of climate-itis I’d suggest starting with finger painting.

University offers students struggling with anxiety about climate change THERAPY to tackle their feelings of 'anger, guilt and grief'
* Sessions being held at the University of Derby by Dr Jamie Bird
* They involve participants trying to express feelings through art and poetry

University of Derby are running art therapy sessions for those suffering 'eco-anxiety' -an issue brought to the forefront of public attention by 17-year-old activist Greta Thunberg.
Participants are encouraged to express their feelings about climate change through 'poetry and movement'. 


https://indigopsychology.com/?gclid=EAI ... gKTlvD_BwE
Don't deny the peak!
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 26 Jan 2020, 23:36:31

jawagord wrote:none of this climate apocalypse will happen.


Some random jackoff on the internet says it won't happen. I'm sold! Oh, what a relief.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 27 Jan 2020, 15:35:46

asg70 wrote:
jawagord wrote:none of this climate apocalypse will happen.


Some random jackoff on the internet says it won't happen. I'm sold! Oh, what a relief.

Hey,
Wuhan virus may just take us off hook!
Could help to cut emissions (and consumption) by 95% by May 2021
Not everything is lost yet.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 27 Jan 2020, 17:27:51

The linked article (& associated linked reference) indicates that tropical forests are losing their ability to absorb CO2, while boreal forests are currently increasing their ability to absorb CO2; but it is not clear to me how long these linear trends will continue:

Title: "Tropical forests losing ability to absorb CO2, study says"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/tropical-fo ... study-says

Extract: "The world’s tropical forests are losing their ability to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, while boreal forests are absorbing emissions at an increasingly fast rate, a study finds.

The new analysis uses a combination of remote-sensing data and modelling to create a detailed picture of carbon loss and gain across all of Earth’s biomes from 1992 to 2015.

Caption for image: "The contribution of boreal (black) and tropical (red) forests to the land carbon sink from 1992-2015. The shadow areas show margins of uncertainty. Source: Tagesson et al. (2020)"

See also:

Tagesson et al. (2020) Recent divergence in the contributions of tropical and boreal forests to the terrestrial carbon sink, Nature Ecology & Evolution,

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-019-1090-0

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559- ... nbrief.org
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Whitefang » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 16:33:38

https://guymcpherson.com/2020/01/extinc ... more-22729

Irreversible abrupt CC, about a degree in 4 years now, likely to hit a degree or more a year.
At least there is still sea ice present on the pole up North, that will not be so at the end of this decade with the speed of things going on. Feedback upon feedback, 60 plus reenforcing one another.
Economy and airtravel will slowdown, we can expect our global dirty shield to weaken and see temp. spiking even more.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 15:29:52

If you check air travel prices, they are incredible. I presume the airlines make money on business travel and then sell, probably, half their tickets as non-refundable, non-transferable, non-changeable on a break-even basis. This makes perfect sense as so many regions are so dependent upon travel to prop up their economies (as most manufacturing has moved to very low income areas of the world).

I'm conflicted whether to be a flier and ruin all future life or not be a flier and ruin life on a more immediate timescale. Yes, a dilemma.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 17:18:29

jedrider wrote:I'm conflicted whether to be a flier and ruin all future life or not be a flier and ruin life on a more immediate timescale. Yes, a dilemma.


I think we know which path Plant chose.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Keep our heads high and fly

Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 30 Jan 2020, 15:49:35

Please do your best to keep the shield intact, that will buy extra precious time, years...…
I do my part burning through a cubic meter of diesel a week, mainly emitted in France :roll:
Just me, a lowland trucker doing what I do, on the road to nowhere making money missions and trips.

https://skepticalscience.com/aerosols-g ... arming.htm
The answer is now apparent with recent studies in aerosol levels and global dimming. Atmospheric aerosols caused a global dimming (eg - less radiation reaching the earth) from 1950 to 1985. In the mid-80's, the trend reversed and radiation levels at the Earth's surface began to brighten. From 1950 to the mid-80's, the cooling effect from aerosols was masking the warming effect from CO2. When aerosol cooling ended, the current global warming trend began.


There must be better and updated papers on the issue, Guy McP. found some.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JvrCDMtNnE

1 to 3 degrees C. in a few weeks? A bit extreme I hope.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdkqJhVJ6KA

Multiple scientists in discussion on the end of it all.

Many scientists believe that global dimming masks the effects of global warming and that reducing direct irradiation can result in future temperature increase. While global warming increases the atmospheric temperature, global dimming helps lower the atmospheric temperature. Although these two phenomena have complementary effects, the two occurrences helped reduce the rate at which the temperature increased over the years. The brown clouds have masked over 50% of global warming through global dimming, and reducing the latter will enhance the effects of the other phenomenon. Therefore these two theories must be stopped at the same time, since decreasing the effect of one can create a severe condition which can prove fatal for everyone on Earth.


https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/wha ... mming.html

So the big brown clouds fall out in a week, then unleashing over 50% of global warming, about 2 degrees C. above pre industrial times.
Yep, even a recession will be a problem, let alone a depression with say 30% economic worldwide slowdown, imagine the central banks loosing control of grow grow grow.

Since there is no solution to a predicament like ours, best to burn and prep for the end, make it last a see how far we can go.
Get in shape and make each day count, be good to your beloved.

https://kevinhester.live/2016/06/17/glo ... habitable/

It relates to evidence obtained from the three-day aircraft grounding that occurred after 9/11 and the profound effects that just the U.S. Commercial Aircraft Flying has on Earth’s atmosphere. (One degree Centigrade increase within three days.)
Quoting Professor Guy McPherson ;
“The impact of the aerosol masking effect has been greatly underestimated, as pointed out in an 8 February 2019 article in Science. As indicated by the lead author of this paper on 25 January 2019: “Global efforts to improve air quality by developing cleaner fuels and burning less coal could end up harming our planet by reducing the number of aerosols in the atmosphere, and by doing so, diminishing aerosols’ cooling ability to offset global warming.” The cooling effect is “nearly twice what scientists previously thought.” That this February 2019 paper cites the conclusion by Levy et al. (2013) indicating as little as 35% reduction in industrial activity drives a 1 C global-average rise in temperature suggests that as little as a 20% reduction in industrial activity is sufficient to warm the planet 1 C within a few days or weeks.”
Guy and I both believe a serious economic crash could be the end of us!
None of these risks operate in a vacuum, they are all connected.


Then Kevin H. here is just a sailor from down under:
Activist, sailor, passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour . Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Yonnipun » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 12:25:55

Runaway global warming is not possible according to the rules of physics. CO2 or any other gas has no ability to heat up earth. The sun is the heat source.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 14:02:30

Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.

And, this thing is an obsessive compulsive moron, and produces way too much CO2 in the form of hot air.

Runaway global warming is not possible according to the rules of physics.


Mother Earth has been a self regulating system for over 500 million years. A simian researcher gets a multimillion dollar grant, and supposedly She gives up! This strain of monkeys has been around for a few thousand years, and now want to claim absolute domination. Mother Earth is likely to disagree. If the monkeys do become a problem for Her, She will just get rid of a few monkeys. Expecting humans to be able to control the climate is a little extreme. It is way out of their pay grade. They can't even control the grasshoppers. Maybe Her next experiment with clever monkeys will be ones with bigger brains, and smaller egos.
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