by Tanada » Fri 17 Aug 2018, 10:43:23
GHung wrote:Then. again. abrupt climate change has likely occurred in the past -
..... Timescales of events described as 'abrupt' may vary dramatically. Changes recorded in the climate of Greenland at the end of the Younger Dryas, as measured by ice-cores, imply a sudden warming of +10 °C (+18 °F)
within a timescale of a few years.[6] Other abrupt changes are the +4 °C (+7.2 °F) on Greenland 11,270 years ago[7] or the abrupt +6 °C (11 °F) warming 22,000 years ago on Antarctica.[8] By contrast, the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum may have initiated anywhere between a few decades and several thousand years. Finally, Earth Systems models project that under ongoing greenhouse gas emissions as early as 2047, the Earth's near surface temperature could depart from the range of variability in the last 150 years, affecting over 3 billion people and most places of great species diversity on Earth.[9]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abrupt_climate_change
Either way, methinks our grandkids have a big problem to deal with. There's no guarantee that humans will have time to adapt in any manageable way, since, collectively, J6Ps are reactionary creatures rather than proactive.
You are taking a regional effect that took place in the climate on an Ice Sheet and projecting that effect on a global scale. Fortunately that isn't how real world physics works. The Ice Sheet and the rest of the North Pole region will indeed experience a very large amplitude change with every step up the climate staircase. However that change affects a tiny percentage of the human population directly, those living north of 60 degrees, and the alterations to their environment actually make life easier in that region, not more difficult in toto. The further south of 60 north you live the less change you will personally see in the climate. By the time you transition from 60 north to 30 north you will have gone from a large change to a very small change and south of 30 north the change is very subtle.
The reason is pretty basic, while the tropics do experience SOME change in the transition from icehouse to hothouse climate the degree of change in the actual tropic zone is very small, no more than 3 degrees C and average reports say 2C increase. At the North pole on the other hand the climate shift is from -20C yearly average to +15C yearly average with warm summers and cold winters. That 35C shift in yearly average is where nearly all of the 'climate change' takes place when the Earth shifts from 10C as Icehouse Earth to 25C as Hothouse Earth. Even more significant the earth acts as two independent climate systems because of the current arrangement of the continents and ocean currents. The Northern Hemisphere was ice free from 34 million ybp until 3 million ybp. During this same period Antarctica went from having mountain glaciers to being entirely buried under massive ice sheets. The world average temperatures in this period started out at 18C world average and gradually declined to 15C around which time the Arctic started accumulating ice increasing albedo and temperature on the 'world scale' abruptly dropped to 12C. However during this entire 34 million year period equatorial temperatures dropped at most 3C which is strong evidence that the reverse is likely to be true as we transition back up.
These are the reasons I keep telling people now is the time to prepare to survive in the hothouse world, not plan on becoming extinct. I promise you, all those folks who are not planing for either climate change or extinction who survive in the short term are going to be looking for someplace to migrate to where they will be able to live. For most of them that will simply mean moving up slope to evade sea level rise, but islands like Erie and Great Britain will be reduced in size as much as 50% over a long period of melting which means not enough food can be grown on the reduced area to feed everyone. Worst case sea level rise is still far short of Hollywood imagery, but it will mean moving large numbers of people up slope AND building new infrastructure to support them in the new location.
So we lose NYC, so what? The people living and working in NYC move to the north a few dozen miles to live in the hilly Westchester and Putnam counties just north of the current city. For Jersey's coast the same thing happens except they go more west to get into the high ground. While someone may propose the crazy sea wall idea in that picture KJ likes to post in reality the cost of building and maintaining such a structure while continuing to inhabit Manhattan island below sea level is a non starter. When people all along the world ocean coastline are being forced to relocate nobody is going to be willing or able to spare the resources to 'save Manhattan', especially when high ground is so nearby and available to relocate. Heck the pedestal of the Statue of Liberty is about 150 feet high above present island surface level and it is not actually on the shore, it is t the highest point on the island giving it another couple dozen feet. This means flooding will gradually creep up to the pedestal and then up the pedestal itself for a very long time before it could actually reach the statue. Given how sentimental Americans are I think it is far more likely Lady Liberty will be taken apart and reconstructed above the new potential water level around 2100 AD than it is Manhattan island will be defended forever.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.