Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 16:57:18

kublikhan wrote:Tesla appears to have engineered a profitable quarter with accounting tricks and delaying capex.

Sorry Kub. I responded to Plant re possible accounting games before I saw your post. I read that article earlier today and it seems to sum up the overall bear case re the accounting speculation pretty well, from what I've read places like Seeking Alpha today.

Given all the stories Musk has told over the past several years, and how far they often deviate from reality re Tesla results, I think anything the company says or projects has to be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism. (Example: FSD "functionally complete" by year end, given how poorly the "Smart" Summon performs at only creeping speeds. And even more ludicrous, the "giant Tesla Robo-taxi FSD Level 5 Fleet in 2020, earning Tesla owners tens of thousands of dollars AND causing wildly appreciating Tesla car values.) I can forgive somewhat overoptimistic predictions re volumes, but nonsense like that is flat out fraud in my book.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 8807
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 12:27:23

You hapless clowns are so pathetic that you haven't even figured out that,

Tesla Motors is a Military Contractor and Elon Musk is a Military Dictator.

Financials have never mattered to this mafia scam and Musk obviously can never be ousted. By 2023 he'll probably be in military fatigues...hahahahaha.

Since the Jet Fighters, Tanks, and ships are bankrupt , the Robot Vehicles are Martial Law Vehicles which will eventually be used to annihilate you. Its the successor to the Modern Tank.

Have fun in your Tech "Paradise"...hahahaha.
I will turn bochen787's face to alabaster.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1748
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 18:59:17

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 15:09:04

StarvingLion wrote:You hapless clowns are so pathetic that you haven't even figured out that,

Tesla Motors is a Military Contractor and Elon Musk is a Military Dictator.


And money is still worthless SL?.

Still a riot SL, still a riot.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 5225
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 13:01:32

StarvingLion wrote:You hapless clowns are so pathetic that you haven't even figured out that,

Tesla Motors is a Military Contractor and Elon Musk is a Military Dictator.

Financials have never mattered to this mafia scam and Musk obviously can never be ousted. By 2023 he'll probably be in military fatigues...hahahahaha.

Since the Jet Fighters, Tanks, and ships are bankrupt , the Robot Vehicles are Martial Law Vehicles which will eventually be used to annihilate you. Its the successor to the Modern Tank.

Have fun in your Tech "Paradise"...hahahaha.

As usual for folks like you, shorty, and armageddon, if only childish name calling and spewing endless FUD, generally without good citations (and often very distorted) were signs of credibility, you'd be awesome.

As it is: What color is the sky in your world?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 8807
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby EdwinSm » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 05:36:55

Tesla to build first European factory in Berlin

Tesla's chief executive, Elon Musk, has said Berlin will be the site of its first European factory as the carmaker's expansion plans power ahead.

Mr Musk said the firm would also build an engineering and design centre in the German capital.

Tesla previously said it aimed to start production in Europe in 2021.

The moves come as the firm, which has also invested heavily in a Chinese factory, faces intensifying competition in the electric vehicle industry.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50400068

This is a welcomed step towards more electronic vehicles. The question is will Tesla make a profit from it, or will the factory have to be sold to the likes of VW or BMW if the debts pile up too high.
EdwinSm
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 601
Joined: Thu 07 Jun 2012, 04:23:59

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 23:12:37

EdwinSm wrote:The question is will Tesla make a profit from it, or will the factory have to be sold to the likes of VW or BMW if the debts pile up too high.


I really don't know how they're servicing their debt as it is. I know they got a huge amount of help from China for the gigafactory over there, otherwise they probably wouldn't have been able to build it. Sales in the US are going down right now and they are only being floated by overseas sales.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4291
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 20 Nov 2019, 14:21:24

asg70 wrote:
EdwinSm wrote:The question is will Tesla make a profit from it, or will the factory have to be sold to the likes of VW or BMW if the debts pile up too high.


I really don't know how they're servicing their debt as it is. I know they got a huge amount of help from China for the gigafactory over there, otherwise they probably wouldn't have been able to build it. Sales in the US are going down right now and they are only being floated by overseas sales.

Examples I've read about or noticed re the figures:

1). They seem to be rolling lots of even small loans over, over time.

2). Despite claims of having a massive cash balance, the amount they earn in interest on that cash implies that for the vast majority of it, it's not really a true, liquid, cash balance, but instead a game of managing their short term obligations, like accounts payable.

3). One new game they're playing has been cutting CAPEX (capital expenditures) to the bone, so they can claim to be cash flow positive, and of course, see number 2.

...

Unless Tesla can become consistently profitable on an annual basis, playing such games (like the CAPEX) HAS to really hurt in the long run, when they supposedly are building factories, introducing several new vehicles (though the timeline keeps slipping overall), and have "massive" driving automation, battery improvement, etc. programs to fund.

In the short run, they keep turning to the capital markets for a large infusion of working capital on worse and worse terms. That only keeps working if investors believe in a good payoff at some point.

...

What I don't get re Berlin is they chose a VERY high cost area to operate, and one with lots of red tape re worker rules, etc. Given the lack of planning Musk often seems to show, I have to wonder how carefully such issues were thought through, re the Berlin area choice.

Of course, maybe like with the Chinese, Tesla will get a lot of help in the short term, re the capital to finance the factory construction.

To me, Tesla just has WAY too much opacity re the financials, and I think it's deliberate. Like with anything else, trust is earned.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 8807
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 20 Nov 2019, 18:26:02

The devil's in the details but it would seem wiser to put the factory somewhere in Eastern Europe like Poland or the Czech Republic something. Spain would probably also be cheap.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4291
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 20 Nov 2019, 18:52:04

asg70 wrote:The devil's in the details but it would seem wiser to put the factory somewhere in Eastern Europe like Poland or the Czech Republic something. Spain would probably also be cheap.

Or even a more rural area in Germany, though that might not help with labor regulations. I saw an article on Seeking Alpha today arguing that Berlin was a fantastic choice because there are lots of automotive facilities including various parts makers in Germany within 200 or so miles of Berlin.

Well, OK, then, but there were certainly a hell of a lot better places than Berlin to be anywhere in a reasonably close distance of most of those points. Or (tip of the hat to you, but I thought of that as I read the article), western Poland would seem a great choice within a hundred miles or so of Berlin, and still in very drivable distance to such plants.

Re wages in Western Poland, they look to be only a fraction of those in Germany, much less near Berlin:

https://www.polandunraveled.com/average ... in-poland/

https://countryeconomy.com/labour/average-wage/germany

Or under 1200 Euros a month in Poland in 2018 (with the west below average) or well under a fourth of the average wage in Germany of nearly 5000 Euros a month in 2018. Even if Berlin isn't much above average, that's one hell of a difference in pay scales.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 8807
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Tesla Cybertruck

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 01:28:24

Tesla Cybertruck reveal just happened.

It is, in a nutshell, a Delorean truck, as it's made out of stainless steel. A byproduct other than the angular 80s look is it doesn't look like it will be painted.

This will go down as the weirdest production vehicle probably SINCE the Delorean. People are going to either love or hate it.

Now, if you were to ask me back in the 80s when I was a teenager what a truck would look like in the 21st century, this is it. It has stereotypical sci-fi movie look to it, but then again, so did the Delorean. The only thing it's missing is no gull-wing doors. But there is a motorized cover on the bed that retracts in a very neat way.

The glass breakage will be ALL OVER the news tomorrow and I can't really tell how the press will take this. I suspect at the very least a 50/50 split of some saying it's a brave idea and the rest saying it will sink Tesla. But there's no way to react to this in anything other than an extreme way, pro or con.

I think if you aren't GenX it would be hard to accept the looks of this. The folded paper look is the epitome of the 80s. People have gotten so used to smooth aerodynamic shapes that this will be perceived as RETRO futuristic.

Now, if you get beyond the look, the specs for the money are insane, and many will probably predict that Musk will not be able to make the math work on it. What kind of battery capacity will it need to hold in order to push that wedge down the road 300 miles on a charge? 100kwh? More? Whatever it is, it's going to be hard to build it at a profit at the pricepoints provided.

The other thing that was curious was the really low cost to reserve, only $100. Why did they do this? After so many people canceled their Model 3 reservations, why make the reservation fee so much cheaper?

Anyway, for sh*ts and giggles I put in a reservation. A couple years from now I'll see whether it was of any value to have reserved or whether it was a waste of time, but I don't mine tying up that little amount of money.

At the end of the day, I'm STILL a doomer and if they fix the glass and the vehicle lives up to specs this might make an ideal doomstead vehicle to make it through the inevitable Malthusian bottleneck.

But how much of this design could possibly make it all the way to production is anyone's guess. For instance, it doesn't look like it even has real bumpers. And if it's so strong, how well would it crash-test without a true crumple-zone? And no rearview mirrors are probably key to helping it achieve the range figures, but will regulations allow it? What kind of rear visibility is there, and where is the backup camera??

This really could be a case of Musk wanting to make a rolling movie-prop without really passing it through a reality-filter.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4291
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28

Re: Tesla Cybertruck

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 02:00:49

Overall, I suspect this might end up being more of a niche product. Unless the prices aren't real, like the initial bait-and-switch Model 3 cheap price, I have to wonder about the profit margins, even in 2022.

The thing that surprised me was the claim it will seat 6. Given the size of the bed and the vehicle, I suspect the hype machine is working hard there.

If the unexpected is what Musk was going for, he gets good marks there, vs. the Model Y (which was unexpected in a bad way, IMO).

asg70 wrote:But how much of this design could possibly make it all the way to production is anyone's guess. For instance, it doesn't look like it even has real bumpers. And if it's so strong, how well would it crash-test without a true crumple-zone?

It might crash test quite well re amount of body damage. Of course, it will be VERY hard on the human occupants if it crashes at moderate to high speed with a super strong body and no crumple zones. I remember reading an article about how the Hummer didn't crumple much at all, but better to have one's Mercedes crumple up and no injury, than a screwed up back following a moderate speed accident.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 8807
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: Tesla Cybertruck

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 03:04:57

asg70 wrote:At the end of the day, I'm STILL a doomer and if they fix the glass and the vehicle lives up to specs this might make an ideal doomstead vehicle to make it through the inevitable Malthusian bottleneck.


Would it make it through a solar flare or and EMP event? Or would it only be damaged if it was connected to the grid at the time of such an event?

However, it the bottle neck is for some other reason and one has solar and/or wind power to recharge it, then it does sound like it has potential to be a good doomstead vehicle. [Niche market?]


ps. Thanks for the review, that was a helpful write up.
EdwinSm
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 601
Joined: Thu 07 Jun 2012, 04:23:59

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 06:54:13

Putting down $100 is probably a much better bet then $100 worth of lottery tickets. And who has any better production run auto glass?
That truck will certainly star in a few doomsday movies. Perhaps with second steel window skins that roll up when driving on autopilot in the combat zones. Perhaps AI controlled shutters that snap up when an incoming round is detected. And of course an AI controlled mini gun or missile launcher that pops up out of the roof when needed to return fire.
I'll bet Seal team six has there orders in. Just for their family vehicles don't you know!
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 11618
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Cog » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 07:57:14

If you can't put a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood in it, it's not really a pickup truck. I suppose some yuppie who drives a Hummer might think it's cool. But for a working man, hell no.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13417
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 08:05:03

Cog wrote:If you can't put a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood in it, it's not really a pickup truck. I suppose some yuppie who drives a Hummer might think it's cool. But for a working man, hell no.

It looked like 4x8 sheets will fit in with the tailgate down just like my Nissan frontier. Have to see the actual production truck to know but I'm pretty sure they are aware of what a pickup is supposed to do.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 11618
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Tesla Cybertruck

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 11:02:04

EdwinSm wrote:Would it make it through a solar flare or and EMP event?


Doomers will have to create a lead shielding compartment for the computer. Hopefully it has an optional bioweapons defense mode air filter. (partially joking)

EdwinSm wrote:However, it the bottle neck is for some other reason


Well, this site IS still called peakoil.com. The topics tend to orient around the core tenets of limits to growth (peak oil, global warming, population overshoot). I'd say solar flares and the like are pretty down on the list of concerns.

Bollinger B-1 also looks extremely rugged and practical for the prospective survivalists out there.

Again, I'm only partly joking. If and when I ever establish a doomstead I'd probably want a vehicle like this.

I really would like to see Tesla come up with a motorhome next, their version of the Stripes EM-50 Urban Assault Vehicle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1QMTzX5geQ

There actually is a small niche of rich eccentrics who ruggedize motorhomes into things like this.

Elon Musk it turning out to be a doomer's best ally in surviving the apocalypse--assuming Tesla doesn't go under first under such high-risk follies.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4291
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 14:32:10

If you can't put a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood in it, it's not really a pickup truck. I suppose some yuppie who drives a Hummer might think it's cool. But for a working man, hell no.


Maybe a yuppie on mars. If someone showed up with one of those things on any oil lease I've been on he'd get hauled out of the cab (if you can call it that) and dumped in the drilling waste pit. Do the guys who design these things have one clue whatsoever? How about building an electric truck that the average worker could toss his toolbox in, throw various scraps of metal, pipe, wire etc in as appropriate and not have to get dressed up like a supporting actor from Revenge of the Jedi to drive it? How about an electric vehicle for ranchers/farmers, one where you could toss a hail bay or two in and your border collie wouldn't be embarrassed to ride around in? If some woke individual drove one of those things onto most of the ranches in my neighborhood Musk would have to fix the "bulletproof" issue first.

What a waste. Glad I don't own shares in Tesla.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7684
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 15:50:40

Don't hold back Rock, Tell us how you feel! :lol: :lol: :roll:
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 11618
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Cog » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 17:19:58

Glad you chimed in rockdoc123. Obviously who ever designed this Tesla truck has never been on a jobsite or done any real work. You going to throw a load of manure in the back end of this "truck"? I've worked out of survey pickup trucks for the past 30 years. We configure boxes that sit in the back of a full size bed to hold our tripods, prism poles, etc but they are pickup trucks not this some kind of weird fusion of an idea between star trek and mad max. I'm not saying you have to design something that looks exactly like a Ford or Chevy truck but come on. This thing is nothing more than vaporware.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13417
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Tesla Cybertruck

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 17:34:44

asg70 wrote:I really would like to see Tesla come up with a motorhome next, their version of the Stripes EM-50 Urban Assault Vehicle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1QMTzX5geQ

There actually is a small niche of rich eccentrics who ruggedize motorhomes into things like this.

But at a price to book ratio approaching 10, Tesla needs to sell a LOT of vehicles, solidly profitably, and fairly consistently to grow into anything remotely approaching how the stock is currently valued, and pay off its debts. Cute (or fugly) niches aren't going to move the needle. (9.28 as of Thursday, but of course, today's 6+% drop takes that below 9).


https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... price-book

(As points of comparison, the highly thought of Toyota, and the F-150 maker Ford):

Toyota P/B ratio at a little over 1.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... price-book

Ford P/B of 1.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... price-book

...

Of course, the fanbois claim Tesla isn't overpriced because "reasons", like:

1). "hyper growth" (which is looking more like logarithmic growth to me, given the way it's been expanding its marketplace in recent quarters and the numbers)

2). "Tesla isn't a car company, it's a high tech company". Well, given the recent announcement of the new Ford E-Mach Mustang, unless Ford is the new Apple, I think Tesla is about 90% a car company, fanboi hopes and dreams or not.

3). "Tesla financials don't matter, because Tesla is 'saving the planet' ". Well, given the life cycle carbon footprints, it could be argued that an HEV like a current Toyota Camry is doing more to "save the planet" than a car like the Model S or any of Tesla's high performance versions. And all the "saving the planet" in the world isn't going to pay Tesla's bills.

...

Don't get me wrong. I'm all for the EV market supplanting the ICE market in time, and feel confident it (with perhaps a big assist from fuel cells) will to a big extent, over the coming few decades. The thing is, if they can't make any money, now that the direction is clear, it doesn't even matter big picture, whether Tesla is part of the coming EV revolution or not.

If I had to buy a car tomorrow, I would STRONGLY lean toward a mid sized HEV. In 5 years, I'm hoping tech, prices, choice, and infrastructure would lead me to a mid sized BEV.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 8807
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

PreviousNext

Return to Energy Technology

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 26 guests

cron