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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Mar 2019, 11:35:05

Yonnipun wrote:
So, you just ignore all the news about progress on batteries and charging?


There are 45 appartments in the appartment building where I bought my retirement appartment. For the whole building there is only 100 ampers 400 Volt three phase connection. As you can see it means that we have only 3x100/45 = 6.66 ampers per appartment available. Just imagine what happens when even one person plugs in a tesla supercharger. There is a going to be an instant black out of entire building. Even slow charging would not be possible. The whole city is full of such big appartment buildings. I have said it before that the grid is not ready to take the electric cars yet. It is easier to build a completely new grid for electric cars than to plug them in the existing grid meant for appartment buildings. It is going to cost a lot. The high voltage grid is probably sufficient but the distribution grid is not.

Sorry for the misunderstanding.

I was not implying that you specifically should buy a BEV at this point. Obviously, things like difficulty charging in an apartment building or where you live in general are a big factor until the charging infrastructure is way more built out. (That's a big part of why I went with an ICE again instead of a PHEV last time).

I was addressing the very dated claims you were making about BEV's in general, like you have to wait around HOURS every time you charge them on a trip. That's not at all the case, if you don't charge over 80% or 90% of the battery (which is better for the battery anyway).

The charging infrastructure, and the general nature of the HUGE economic and physical transition that must take place to go from where we are now with maybe 2%ish electrified cars on the road in the first world to maybe 80% or more is a multi decade -- perhaps 3 to 5 decade globally, process.

That's the part that the magical thinking re "let's stop using all oil for transport tomorrow" green fanboi club is COMPLETELY clueless about.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 11 Mar 2019, 12:01:08

pstarr wrote:Yonnipun, in the United States 100 million people (almost 1/3 of the total population) live in apartment buildings. The rest will be very lucky to charge an EV in clean clothing.

So if you own your own home you can't afford to do laundry? :lol: :P
While more then a third of Americans rent, 39 % of those renters rent single family houses.
In America apartments should have at least 60 amps available per rental unit and more if each apartment has a clothes dryer and electric kitchen range and hot water heater. The main service to the building will be less then the total load assuming not everything will ever be run at the same time. So a building with a total load possible of 1000 amps might have a 600 amp service from the street. See National electric code for specifics.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 11 Mar 2019, 12:42:02

Apartment defined as multi family dwelling unit. Cars parked either on the street or shared garage. Either case no possibly for personal auto charging. Sharing chargers is a no no. Never in America
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Re: THE Tesla Thread (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 11 Mar 2019, 12:57:43

pstarr wrote:Apartment defined as multi family dwelling unit. Cars parked either on the street or shared garage. Either case no possibly for personal auto charging. Sharing chargers is a no no. Never in America
When there is a demand for chargers in apartment parking garages they will come but at present we have 255 million Americans living in single family houses both rented and owned by the occupant (and the bank). The auto makers producing EVs will have their hands full meeting that demand for decades so there is no need to worry about the apartment dwellers.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Mar 2019, 14:00:00

vtsnowedin wrote:
pstarr wrote:Yonnipun, in the United States 100 million people (almost 1/3 of the total population) live in apartment buildings. The rest will be very lucky to charge an EV in clean clothing.

I can pump gas in clean clothing (though I like to clean my hands with a wetnap, etc. afterwords if I'm in, say, a suit). It's not like it's difficult to keep some on hand. Why in the world would it be a problem to plug in a charger?

More useless FUD by you, no doubt. Given your track record here re spreading nonsensical FUD about EV's, why bother?

Yes, building out the charging infrastructure needs to be done, and it is part of why it will be decades before BEV's can achieve complete domination, even in the first world. That doesn't mean inductive parking in parking lots in assigned spaces or other solutions aren't possible and practical, once BEV's are good enough to provide an economic incentive for such solutions. Also, once fast public chargers are common, it's not like those can't be used if needed. I don't pump gas at my house, after all.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 11 Mar 2019, 14:06:38

vtsnowedin wrote:
pstarr wrote:Apartment defined as multi family dwelling unit. Cars parked either on the street or shared garage. Either case no possibly for personal auto charging. Sharing chargers is a no no. Never in America
When there is a demand for chargers in apartment parking garages they will come

Is that a religious statement?
at present we have 255 million Americans living in single family houses both rented and owned by the occupant (and the bank). The auto makers producing EVs will have their hands full meeting that demand for decades so there is no need to worry about the apartment dwellers.

That is not even true. Americans will always choose cleanliness over godliness
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Re: THE Tesla Thread (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Mar 2019, 14:11:04

vtsnowedin wrote:
pstarr wrote:Yonnipun, in the United States 100 million people (almost 1/3 of the total population) live in apartment buildings. The rest will be very lucky to charge an EV in clean clothing.

So if you own your own home you can't afford to do laundry? :lol: :P
While more then a third of Americans rent, 39 % of those renters rent single family houses.
In America apartments should have at least 60 amps available per rental unit and more if each apartment has a clothes dryer and electric kitchen range and hot water heater. The main service to the building will be less then the total load assuming not everything will ever be run at the same time. So a building with a total load possible of 1000 amps might have a 600 amp service from the street. See National electric code for specifics.

With modern tech and as efficient as things are getting to be, it's amazing how little current a household might use. When testing my whole house generator for load considerations in 2012, I was turning on virtually everything in my house, trying to get the load over 30 amps, to "push" the generator, which can handle 75 amps sustained, just a little.

So running all the lights, fans, washer, dryer, microwave, oven (both sides and multiple burners) computers, and hair dryer, I finally managed to get it to near 50 amps, as I recall, without having to resort to running multiple space heaters on high. (I normally never run more than one at a time, on medium or low, near me).

If the majority of people all will want to charge their EV's at night at the same time then some additional capacity will be needed. But demand pricing is already a thing, and with computers people can time shift their charging. And as both of us have pointed out here, it will be DECADES before we're anywhere near the point that such demand occurs.

Next thing, pstarr will be falsely saying AGAIN that you can't leave town in an EV. Admitting technology changes isn't in his capacity, apparently.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 11 Mar 2019, 14:20:44

It so disappoints our community when the Tesla fan boys/girls resist their god given responsibility.

You guys/gals need to shop, buy your EV for the coming bright Green America. :)
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Re: THE Tesla Thread (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 11 Mar 2019, 15:51:19

pstarr wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:When there is a demand for chargers in apartment parking garages they will come

Is that a religious statement?

If you consider Capitalism a religion then yes of course.
at present we have 255 million Americans living in single family houses both rented and owned by the occupant (and the bank). The auto makers producing EVs will have their hands full meeting that demand for decades so there is no need to worry about the apartment dwellers.

That is not even true. Americans will always choose cleanliness over godliness[/quote]
What have you been smoking? This discussion has nothing to do with cleanliness or godliness.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 00:02:37

vtsnowedin wrote: What have you been smoking? This discussion has nothing to do with cleanliness or godliness.


Let's face it. He isn't capable of "discussion", only mockery, sarcasm, and chest-beating braggodocio.

BTW, as far as Tesla FUD goes, no need to manufacture any. It's become quite a shit-show lately with the day-by-day tactical zig-zagging. Prices going up and down and up again. Stores closing, not closing. More executives leaving. SEC still on the hunt. Sales figures...down. Stock price...down. Debt burden growing. It's not looking good.

The Model Y reveal is due within days and I am expecting something...bizarre. I am not sure Musk is really in a state of mind to be able to pull off a classic Apple style presentation anymore. They could do something really short and anticlimactic similar to the no-nonsense release party for the Model 3, or they could try to do pomp and circumstance and there will be tons of cracks showing in the armor. But I just don't think it's going to be anywhere near as exhuberant and laden with historic import as the Model 3 reveal. Three years later, the bloom is, as they say, off the rose.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 02:11:02

Yes it is time for Musk and Tesla to stand and deliver. If they were not in such precarious financial straits I'd suggest they go to Ohio and buy or lease that GM plant that just shut down. State of the art assembly line equipment and a work force that knows how to build cars and a local government that will do whatever it takes to reopen the plant.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 12:33:07

Tesla just won the Tesla/UAW suit with the NLRB. Tesla is a relentlessly anti-union operation, as are all Silicon Valley firms. They will never buy a GM plant or any other that comes with an employee base that is pre-disposed to be pro-UAW, or any other form of organized labor.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/11/tesla-not-buying-gm-factory-union-employees-ceo/
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 12:45:05

KaiserJeep wrote:Tesla just won the Tesla/UAW suit with the NLRB. Tesla is a relentlessly anti-union operation, as are all Silicon Valley firms. They will never buy a GM plant or any other that comes with an employee base that is pre-disposed to be pro-UAW, or any other form of organized labor.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/11/tesla-not-buying-gm-factory-union-employees-ceo/

And on that front, who can blame them? In Europe, at least, you see documentaries where union labor in some country wants to work with management, and just wants a secure job and good treatment -- but they also want to produce value for the company. They are happy to get more training to work with more modern technology, for example.

But in the US, it's largely a purely adversarial relationship, and the rules allow far too much paying of idle workers. The UAW and GM is a fine example.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 12:53:24

asg70 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: What have you been smoking? This discussion has nothing to do with cleanliness or godliness.


Let's face it. He isn't capable of "discussion", only mockery, sarcasm, and chest-beating braggodocio.

BTW, as far as Tesla FUD goes, no need to manufacture any. It's become quite a shit-show lately with the day-by-day tactical zig-zagging. Prices going up and down and up again. Stores closing, not closing. More executives leaving. SEC still on the hunt. Sales figures...down. Stock price...down. Debt burden growing. It's not looking good.

The Model Y reveal is due within days and I am expecting something...bizarre.

Recent events have shown one thing for sure -- for any rational observer. Musk's planning skills are HORRENDOUS. With some up front analysis (including realizing the rules on long term leases for the sales centers), he could have avoided the randomness, which as alarmed or pissed off the entire staff of the sales centers to remain. Not to mention made all those employees seriously question their job security. That must be terrible for morale.

So then, when Musk makes claims about what production will be in a year, or what will be produced at what price in a year or three, given the track record re inaccuracy, no wonder outside the fanboi base, he has so little credibility.

I really hope the SEC does what the board should have and keeps him out of senior management outside of engineering at Tesla. At this point, IMO, it's a matter of principle if THEY are to maintain credibility, re corporate rules and regulations for CEO behavior re discussing things of financially material to their firm.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 08:47:56

KaiserJeep wrote:Tesla just won the Tesla/UAW suit with the NLRB. Tesla is a relentlessly anti-union operation, as are all Silicon Valley firms. They will never buy a GM plant or any other that comes with an employee base that is pre-disposed to be pro-UAW, or any other form of organized labor.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/11/tesla-not-buying-gm-factory-union-employees-ceo/

You buy the factory and it's equipment not the employees or their union. They have done it before in California and could possibly do it again in Ohio. A GM executive's opinion on that is not the last word. After all GM management and the union put all those people out of work. Some of them might have learned a lesson or two.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 01:23:47

Well, the Model Y reveal was indeed anti-climactic, comprising mostly of a history lesson intended to spin Tesla's current (strained) position as a success story. Model Y is really just a slightly taller Model 3 with a hatch (which for some reason Musk did not demonstrate opening). Not bad but not new or groundbreaking in any way. Plus now they want $2,500 to reserve instead of $1,000.

Also, dual motor is that much more important with an SUV but it doesn't look like they're going to offer a dual motor variant with standard range (just as they aren't with Model 3). You can be sure competitors will. This is going to be a problem for Tesla.

I also don't get why Tesla's dual motor cars (at least 3 and Y) feature LESS range than RWD. I think the S and X actually get slightly better range due to more regen. There's an engineering problem with the motors Tesla is using on these new cars.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 13:32:13

asg70 wrote:Well, the Model Y reveal was indeed anti-climactic, comprising mostly of a history lesson intended to spin Tesla's current (strained) position as a success story. Model Y is really just a slightly taller Model 3 with a hatch (which for some reason Musk did not demonstrate opening). Not bad but not new or groundbreaking in any way. Plus now they want $2,500 to reserve instead of $1,000.

Yup, it's a good day for the bears.

I couldn't believe it when I saw a video summary of the reveal.

1). I was like, "WHAT? It's not even an SUV! It's just a slighly bigger, fatter, Model 3. No WONDER they have so many parts in common.

2). The fans were totally unimpressed. The complete opposite of the total excitement of the Semi Truck and Roadster event. You could just feel (and hear) the disappointment.

...

It seems to me that much of the demand for the Model Y will be simply cannibalizing the Model 3. And the people who wait for the Model Y get 18 to 24 months (or more) to watch and see what happens as the competition continues to accelerate -- and maybe decide buying a Tesla isn't such a great idea after all.

If the fanbois thought the Model 3 was going to somehow rescue Tesla from its problems, to the extent they can be objective, they should be very disappointed.

I still don't buy all the shorts' stories re imminent Tesla bankruptcy. However, this sure seems to put the nail in the coffin of the fanboi thesis of unending rapid growth, massively growing profits, and a stock price of several thousand dollars within a few years.

...

Now it's back to watching how Tesla operates re production, quality, and service, and seeing if they can dig themselves out of their hole.

Oh, and seeing if there is any MEANINGFUL production out of China in 2019. And if there is anything REMOTELY CLOSE to FSD in 2019. (I believe in unicorns more than I believe in true level 5 FSD from Tesla in 2019).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 19 Mar 2019, 00:31:47

"A Modified Ponzi Scheme"

"Tesla is in effect a modified Ponzi scheme. Throughout its history, the company has financed its operations by announcing a new product (originally the roadster, then the Model S, the Model X, the Model 3, the Semi, the roadster 2, and now the Model Y as well as the vaporware full self driving package) and then taking deposits for the product before it has ever designed a production system for the product. The company then spends the deposits on operating expenses and the capital expenses to manufacture the original product. When the company is close to running out of funds, the company announces a new product and takes deposits on it in order to finish the production of the first product. Since 2008, 78% of TSLA's cash flow from operations has come from customer deposits!"
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