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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Tesla Cybertruck

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 00:28:24

Tesla Cybertruck reveal just happened.

It is, in a nutshell, a Delorean truck, as it's made out of stainless steel. A byproduct other than the angular 80s look is it doesn't look like it will be painted.

This will go down as the weirdest production vehicle probably SINCE the Delorean. People are going to either love or hate it.

Now, if you were to ask me back in the 80s when I was a teenager what a truck would look like in the 21st century, this is it. It has stereotypical sci-fi movie look to it, but then again, so did the Delorean. The only thing it's missing is no gull-wing doors. But there is a motorized cover on the bed that retracts in a very neat way.

The glass breakage will be ALL OVER the news tomorrow and I can't really tell how the press will take this. I suspect at the very least a 50/50 split of some saying it's a brave idea and the rest saying it will sink Tesla. But there's no way to react to this in anything other than an extreme way, pro or con.

I think if you aren't GenX it would be hard to accept the looks of this. The folded paper look is the epitome of the 80s. People have gotten so used to smooth aerodynamic shapes that this will be perceived as RETRO futuristic.

Now, if you get beyond the look, the specs for the money are insane, and many will probably predict that Musk will not be able to make the math work on it. What kind of battery capacity will it need to hold in order to push that wedge down the road 300 miles on a charge? 100kwh? More? Whatever it is, it's going to be hard to build it at a profit at the pricepoints provided.

The other thing that was curious was the really low cost to reserve, only $100. Why did they do this? After so many people canceled their Model 3 reservations, why make the reservation fee so much cheaper?

Anyway, for sh*ts and giggles I put in a reservation. A couple years from now I'll see whether it was of any value to have reserved or whether it was a waste of time, but I don't mine tying up that little amount of money.

At the end of the day, I'm STILL a doomer and if they fix the glass and the vehicle lives up to specs this might make an ideal doomstead vehicle to make it through the inevitable Malthusian bottleneck.

But how much of this design could possibly make it all the way to production is anyone's guess. For instance, it doesn't look like it even has real bumpers. And if it's so strong, how well would it crash-test without a true crumple-zone? And no rearview mirrors are probably key to helping it achieve the range figures, but will regulations allow it? What kind of rear visibility is there, and where is the backup camera??

This really could be a case of Musk wanting to make a rolling movie-prop without really passing it through a reality-filter.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Tesla Cybertruck

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 01:00:49

Overall, I suspect this might end up being more of a niche product. Unless the prices aren't real, like the initial bait-and-switch Model 3 cheap price, I have to wonder about the profit margins, even in 2022.

The thing that surprised me was the claim it will seat 6. Given the size of the bed and the vehicle, I suspect the hype machine is working hard there.

If the unexpected is what Musk was going for, he gets good marks there, vs. the Model Y (which was unexpected in a bad way, IMO).

asg70 wrote:But how much of this design could possibly make it all the way to production is anyone's guess. For instance, it doesn't look like it even has real bumpers. And if it's so strong, how well would it crash-test without a true crumple-zone?

It might crash test quite well re amount of body damage. Of course, it will be VERY hard on the human occupants if it crashes at moderate to high speed with a super strong body and no crumple zones. I remember reading an article about how the Hummer didn't crumple much at all, but better to have one's Mercedes crumple up and no injury, than a screwed up back following a moderate speed accident.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Tesla Cybertruck

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 02:04:57

asg70 wrote:At the end of the day, I'm STILL a doomer and if they fix the glass and the vehicle lives up to specs this might make an ideal doomstead vehicle to make it through the inevitable Malthusian bottleneck.


Would it make it through a solar flare or and EMP event? Or would it only be damaged if it was connected to the grid at the time of such an event?

However, it the bottle neck is for some other reason and one has solar and/or wind power to recharge it, then it does sound like it has potential to be a good doomstead vehicle. [Niche market?]


ps. Thanks for the review, that was a helpful write up.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 05:54:13

Putting down $100 is probably a much better bet then $100 worth of lottery tickets. And who has any better production run auto glass?
That truck will certainly star in a few doomsday movies. Perhaps with second steel window skins that roll up when driving on autopilot in the combat zones. Perhaps AI controlled shutters that snap up when an incoming round is detected. And of course an AI controlled mini gun or missile launcher that pops up out of the roof when needed to return fire.
I'll bet Seal team six has there orders in. Just for their family vehicles don't you know!
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Cog » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 06:57:14

If you can't put a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood in it, it's not really a pickup truck. I suppose some yuppie who drives a Hummer might think it's cool. But for a working man, hell no.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 07:05:03

Cog wrote:If you can't put a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood in it, it's not really a pickup truck. I suppose some yuppie who drives a Hummer might think it's cool. But for a working man, hell no.

It looked like 4x8 sheets will fit in with the tailgate down just like my Nissan frontier. Have to see the actual production truck to know but I'm pretty sure they are aware of what a pickup is supposed to do.
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Re: Tesla Cybertruck

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 10:02:04

EdwinSm wrote:Would it make it through a solar flare or and EMP event?


Doomers will have to create a lead shielding compartment for the computer. Hopefully it has an optional bioweapons defense mode air filter. (partially joking)

EdwinSm wrote:However, it the bottle neck is for some other reason


Well, this site IS still called peakoil.com. The topics tend to orient around the core tenets of limits to growth (peak oil, global warming, population overshoot). I'd say solar flares and the like are pretty down on the list of concerns.

Bollinger B-1 also looks extremely rugged and practical for the prospective survivalists out there.

Again, I'm only partly joking. If and when I ever establish a doomstead I'd probably want a vehicle like this.

I really would like to see Tesla come up with a motorhome next, their version of the Stripes EM-50 Urban Assault Vehicle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1QMTzX5geQ

There actually is a small niche of rich eccentrics who ruggedize motorhomes into things like this.

Elon Musk it turning out to be a doomer's best ally in surviving the apocalypse--assuming Tesla doesn't go under first under such high-risk follies.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 13:32:10

If you can't put a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood in it, it's not really a pickup truck. I suppose some yuppie who drives a Hummer might think it's cool. But for a working man, hell no.


Maybe a yuppie on mars. If someone showed up with one of those things on any oil lease I've been on he'd get hauled out of the cab (if you can call it that) and dumped in the drilling waste pit. Do the guys who design these things have one clue whatsoever? How about building an electric truck that the average worker could toss his toolbox in, throw various scraps of metal, pipe, wire etc in as appropriate and not have to get dressed up like a supporting actor from Revenge of the Jedi to drive it? How about an electric vehicle for ranchers/farmers, one where you could toss a hail bay or two in and your border collie wouldn't be embarrassed to ride around in? If some woke individual drove one of those things onto most of the ranches in my neighborhood Musk would have to fix the "bulletproof" issue first.

What a waste. Glad I don't own shares in Tesla.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 14:50:40

Don't hold back Rock, Tell us how you feel! :lol: :lol: :roll:
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Cog » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 16:19:58

Glad you chimed in rockdoc123. Obviously who ever designed this Tesla truck has never been on a jobsite or done any real work. You going to throw a load of manure in the back end of this "truck"? I've worked out of survey pickup trucks for the past 30 years. We configure boxes that sit in the back of a full size bed to hold our tripods, prism poles, etc but they are pickup trucks not this some kind of weird fusion of an idea between star trek and mad max. I'm not saying you have to design something that looks exactly like a Ford or Chevy truck but come on. This thing is nothing more than vaporware.
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Re: Tesla Cybertruck

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 16:34:44

asg70 wrote:I really would like to see Tesla come up with a motorhome next, their version of the Stripes EM-50 Urban Assault Vehicle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1QMTzX5geQ

There actually is a small niche of rich eccentrics who ruggedize motorhomes into things like this.

But at a price to book ratio approaching 10, Tesla needs to sell a LOT of vehicles, solidly profitably, and fairly consistently to grow into anything remotely approaching how the stock is currently valued, and pay off its debts. Cute (or fugly) niches aren't going to move the needle. (9.28 as of Thursday, but of course, today's 6+% drop takes that below 9).


https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... price-book

(As points of comparison, the highly thought of Toyota, and the F-150 maker Ford):

Toyota P/B ratio at a little over 1.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... price-book

Ford P/B of 1.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... price-book

...

Of course, the fanbois claim Tesla isn't overpriced because "reasons", like:

1). "hyper growth" (which is looking more like logarithmic growth to me, given the way it's been expanding its marketplace in recent quarters and the numbers)

2). "Tesla isn't a car company, it's a high tech company". Well, given the recent announcement of the new Ford E-Mach Mustang, unless Ford is the new Apple, I think Tesla is about 90% a car company, fanboi hopes and dreams or not.

3). "Tesla financials don't matter, because Tesla is 'saving the planet' ". Well, given the life cycle carbon footprints, it could be argued that an HEV like a current Toyota Camry is doing more to "save the planet" than a car like the Model S or any of Tesla's high performance versions. And all the "saving the planet" in the world isn't going to pay Tesla's bills.

...

Don't get me wrong. I'm all for the EV market supplanting the ICE market in time, and feel confident it (with perhaps a big assist from fuel cells) will to a big extent, over the coming few decades. The thing is, if they can't make any money, now that the direction is clear, it doesn't even matter big picture, whether Tesla is part of the coming EV revolution or not.

If I had to buy a car tomorrow, I would STRONGLY lean toward a mid sized HEV. In 5 years, I'm hoping tech, prices, choice, and infrastructure would lead me to a mid sized BEV.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby frankthetank » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 09:47:21

The cybertruck to me is the ugliest vehicle ever. Love the Model S... Model 3 is nice. I honestly don't think this thing gets built looking this ugly. I think they'll have to redesign and push back production...which Tesla is great at. Ford or Chevy might beat them to a punch of a normal EV pickup.

I'll stick with gasoline for now... I don't drive enough to justify the cost of a Tesla...
lawns should be outlawed.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby frankthetank » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 11:39:56

Cog wrote:If you can't put a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood in it, it's not really a pickup truck. I suppose some yuppie who drives a Hummer might think it's cool. But for a working man, hell no.


This is where my minivan shines..if i take the seats out in the back (they all pop out easily) i can slid in 3/4 plywood, drywall etc and close the rear liftgate. Another option one has is a trailer. Get a model 3/..put a hitch on it... can get a 5x8 trailer for probably under a grand.. bam... haul about anything you ever need to...only crappy thing is storing a trailer.
lawns should be outlawed.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 12:02:11

.
a very satisfying solution is plug in hybrid ,

it can charge by the engine or at a power point ,
there is no need to reconfigure the whole energy distribution for vehicle
they have excellent range , good performance and are suitable for long distance to remote location
for commuters they can be used as purely electric but will never get stuck if the charge is low
this type of vehicle is in sale since 2015 for mass retail
as of the first quarter of 2019 over 900.000 have been sold
the manufacturers make money , the consumers are very satisfied , there is very little noise
it cut the fuel consumption by two third and provide a solid economic base for the further development of batteries manufacturing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g09JV70BWT0
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 12:29:14

No Comment

Image
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Planned obsolescence, one of the largest contributors to the man made element of climate change, but the one least discussed: dolanbaker
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 12:38:10

With regards to plug-in hybrids an interesting approach to all the current problems seems to have been taken by Land Rover (no longer English owned but instead owned by the Indian company Tata).
The new Range Rover hybrid is cheaper than the high-end Tesla and basically looks exactly like a normal ICE Range Rover. It has a plug-in hybrid engine but what differs here is the range on electric alone is only about 50 km before it reverts to the combustion engine. I think what Land Rover had in mind here was that for folks who use their vehicle for daily commutes the hybrid can handle that task. When they head out on the weekends further afield the ICE part of the equation comes into play. I like this idea and it is appropriate to where I live given the complete paucity of EV charging stations outside of the main city centre (where I am nowhere near).
This is an appropriate response to the problem I think versus the pie in the sky approaches that assume all the necessary elements for a problem-free EV existence will suddenly appear tomorrow.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 15:17:22

rockdoc123 wrote:With regards to plug-in hybrids an interesting approach to all the current problems seems to have been taken by Land Rover (no longer English owned but instead owned by the Indian company Tata).
The new Range Rover hybrid is cheaper than the high-end Tesla and basically looks exactly like a normal ICE Range Rover. It has a plug-in hybrid engine but what differs here is the range on electric alone is only about 50 km before it reverts to the combustion engine. I think what Land Rover had in mind here was that for folks who use their vehicle for daily commutes the hybrid can handle that task. When they head out on the weekends further afield the ICE part of the equation comes into play. I like this idea and it is appropriate to where I live given the complete paucity of EV charging stations outside of the main city centre (where I am nowhere near).
This is an appropriate response to the problem I think versus the pie in the sky approaches that assume all the necessary elements for a problem-free EV existence will suddenly appear tomorrow.

Yeah, I have to agree 100%, and wish more PHEV's were available.

Also, I think the transitional value for HEV's seems obvious, given the mileage and relatively low cost of the latest generation of the Toyota technology, which it will license to any competitor, guaranteeing the technology can become widespread if it gains broad consumer acceptance.

With the modern platform, the only real HEV disadvantage I see is the possibility that the traction battery needs to be replaced or the hybrid system needs repairs. But with the 8 year 100K warranty on such systems (oh, make that 150K miles and TEN years for all Toyota HEV's starting with 2020 models, for the battery -- see link), and them often going 200K or more miles, that risk seems quite small, IMO, compared to taking the plunge so soon with a BEV. (The Prius has been sold worldwide for 19+ years now, so HEV technlogy is certainly mainstream by now).

https://www.motor1.com/news/375760/toyo ... -warranty/

To me, having the ability to roughly double your gas mileage in the city, without putting up with any of the current BEV down-sides is huge. And of course, if you do very little highway driving, then the PHEV might be a cheap and effective BEV for the city, with no range anxiety when you do need to take a longer trip.

And with those, no worries about whether it takes a 5, 10, or 20 years for the charging infrastructure and battery tech and cost of BEV's to get to where you want it to be as a BEV buyer. Or, if the FCEV becomes the dark horse winner, you also have that option.

Folks like Tesla fanbois try to claim the HEV and PHEV tech. is a non-starter, just like they pretend NONE of the Tesla competition can ever matter. I call BS on that, since for a good decade and maybe two, no reason both HEV and PHEV can't be fine competitors for BEV's, especially considering the cost and functionality trade-offs for anyone who might have range anxiety in their situation.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 18:41:15

rockdoc123 wrote:If some woke individual drove one of those things onto most of the ranches in my neighborhood Musk would have to fix the "bulletproof" issue first.


Your neighborhood sounds like the type who roll-coal on anyone who doesn't drive a V-8. Do you really think an electric powerplant will sell with them even in a conventional package?

There comes a point where generational shift forces progress whether conservative types like it or not. Not to say that you have to learn to love to drive something that looks like this, but just that progress will move forward regardless of luddites.

I can forsee a time when the first guy in the neighborhood has an electric truck (other than the Cybertruck) and he attaches trailer-hitches and drags all the other trucks down the road like in the Cybertruck demo. Then electric won't be so much of a joke anymore. That will be the equivalent of Model Ss beating Ferraris and Corvettes in drag races. Performance trumps tradition.

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HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 19:31:08

Your neighborhood sounds like the type who roll-coal on anyone who doesn't drive a V-8. Do you really think an electric powerplant will sell with them even in a conventional package?


Practical ranchers, some of whom are fourth generation some who have university educations in agriculture. They utilize the most practical high-tech equipment they can get ahold of. If someone were to offer them a practical EV solution that allowed them to first off get the job done and secondly not look like some dufus who read comic books about space cowboys they would jump at it. The ranching life is messy and when you need to haul stuff, you need to haul stuff and not get stuck or laughed at by you bird dogs while doing it.

Not to say that you have to learn to love to drive something that looks like this, but just that progress will move forward regardless of luddites.


Maybe in San Francisco....not in the heartland where Skoal, Wranglers, Ariat workhogs and Bud Lite are still carried in emergency kits. You need to design for that market.

I can foresee a time when the first guy in the neighborhood has an electric truck (other than the Cybertruck) and he attaches trailer-hitches and drags all the other trucks down the road like in the Cybertruck demo.


Won't matter unless that same truck can carry 10 bales of hay, a fence mender and fence posts across a snowy back 40 and stay running in sub zero weather for a couple of hours while the work gets done. And if it doesn't have a gun rack you won't sell a single one to your target audience.

Performance trumps tradition.


there is a reason pickup trucks as ranch/farm or worksite vehicles have looked essentially the same since the fifties. If it ain't broke don't fix it. If Musk had any brains he would have designed an electric pickup that looked exactly like a Ford F-350, that would have got the attention of the appropriate target audience for this type of vehicle.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 06:07:44

Well this is an extra $15 million in the company's bank account for two years or more, (at $100 / order).

Tesla has received almost 150,000 orders for its new pickup truck, boss Elon Musk has said, despite an embarrassing hiccup at its launch.
.....
Tesla shares dived 6.1% after the event on Thursday and several bad reviews.
....
But on Saturday Mr Musk tweeted: "146k Cybertruck orders so far, with 42% choosing dual, 41% tri & 17% single motor".

The demand had come despite "no advertising & no paid endorsement" for the truck, he said.

No date has been given for the Cybertruck's release, but analysts said it would not be ready before the end of 2021 at the earliest.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50536200
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