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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 19 Jan 2020, 09:17:18

GDPNow Estimate Tumbles on Weak Retail Sales

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/api/amp/ ... ssion=true
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 19 Jan 2020, 13:32:53

Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:On January 17, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q42019 is 1.8 percent.


What happened to 2.3%?


What happened to the stock market crash that you have predicted for years?



I’ve been calling for DOW 30k. You aren’t going to see a crash for a while with the amount of printing, stimulus and rate cuts we’re having. The markets don’t care about data, only free money and rate cuts and Trump is begging for more....and he’ll get them

He is begging for more. His behavior surprises me. It crosses the line of an independent Fed. He puts pressure on with his appeal to conspiracy theory, that the Fed is the enemy of the people. He insinuates that any answer other than to give him what he wants is in alignment with that accusation.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 19 Jan 2020, 14:02:59

I missed where you said convert the data into a function.


Did you miss the toilet this morning also? It is a good thing that you still live with your mother! A distribution of data points must be structured into a function of some form to be useful. That could be a 1 to nth polynomial, logistic, exponential, logarithmic, etc. Otherwise it is nothing but a useless random set of values; sort of like you. Plotting the data points of your responses would look like the distribution produced from a blind folded, myopic monkey with Alzheimer throwing darts in a dark room. Back in the dark ages, like Hubbert's day, such curve fitting was done by hand. An accurate representation of a data set could take years. Hubbert's genius was very much in his ability to recognize a logistic function in a mass of otherwise random appearing data; which was no small feat even for a very experienced petrol-geologists. Hubbet accomplished, without the assistance of high speed computers, what thousands of other researchers hadn't in the previous century. Truly, an asounding feat. Today, of course, analysis of extremely large data sets can be undertaken in moments with the help of a simple laptop computer. It still requires an experienced researcher to select (guess) the proper form of the function to begin the process. For that reason you should probably stick to throwing darts.

When the Etp Model was constructed from a 2'nd Law statement, which uses as inputs the EIA production data set, and its output was represented by a logistic curve - Hubert's hypothesis was again confirmed. The nail in the proverbial skeptics' coffin was when the function plotted almost perfectly to the price of oil. The price of oil is the only variable available that we can be 99% certain is accurate. If that doesn't prove Hubbert's hypothesis, it is hard to say what would? Maybe a hand engraved golden plague from Arch Angle Gabriel would do it?



onlooker said:
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. And as Short also correctly notes in the backgroud, depletion never rests. Oh but never fear we have our deniers here to assauge our concerns


All is definitely lost if we continue to deny that there could be a problem. Having a subset of the society, who for their own nefarious reasons, want to deflect any possible action to re-mediate, investigate, and then suppress those investigations if they do occur, the situation takes on the appearance of a form of social suicide. Maybe our civilization is not dying of petroleum depletion; other options where available. Maybe it is being purposely murdered by some who will gain a short term advantage. Maybe a critical level of sociopaths has been reached in out society. In the 70's there was a considerable amount of research going on regarding that very subject. Some concluded that as few as 5% of the population who became sociopaths would be fatal for the society. Looking at the number of wing nuts floating around out there, California may by itself tip the scales.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 19 Jan 2020, 17:13:14

shortonoil wrote:


onlooker said:
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. And as Short also correctly notes in the backgroud, depletion never rests. Oh but never fear we have our deniers here to assauge our concerns


All is definitely lost if we continue to deny that there could be a problem. Having a subset of the society, who for their own nefarious reasons, want to deflect any possible action to re-mediate, investigate, and then suppress those investigations if they do occur, the situation takes on the appearance of a form of social suicide. Maybe our civilization is not dying of petroleum depletion; other options where available. Maybe it is being purposely murdered by some who will gain a short term advantage. Maybe a critical level of sociopaths has been reached in out society. In the 70's there was a considerable amount of research going on regarding that very subject. Some concluded that as few as 5% of the population who became sociopaths would be fatal for the society. Looking at the number of wing nuts floating around out there, California may by itself tip the scales.

Short, it doesn't even have to be sociopaths just your garden variety greedy people. The addict to whatever doesn't care about longer term consequences. Just their next fix
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 19 Jan 2020, 18:01:59

U.S. Bankruptcies Rise in 2019 After Eight Years of Decline

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptc ... FA4F017A06


We are in the calm before the storm. The storm clouds can be seen on the horizon. Most people can’t see them because their head is in the sand.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 19 Jan 2020, 20:19:15

onlooker said:
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. And as Short also correctly notes in the backgroud, depletion never rests. Oh but never fear we have our deniers here to assauge our concernse


All is definitely lost if we continue to deny that there could be a problem. Having a subset of the society, who for their own nefarious reasons, want to deflect any possible action to re-mediate, investigate, and then suppress those investigations if they do occur, the situation takes on the appearance of a form of social suicide. Maybe our civilization is not dying of petroleum depletion; other options where available. Maybe it is being purposely murdered by some who will gain a short term advantage. Maybe a critical level of sociopaths has been reached in out society. In the 70's there was a considerable amount of research going on regarding that very subject. Some concluded that as few as 5% of the population who became sociopaths would be fatal for the society. Looking at the number of wing nuts floating around out there, California may by itself tip the scales.

Short, it doesn't even have to be sociopaths just your garden variety greedy people. The addict to whatever doesn't care about longer term consequences. Just their next fix


I wouldn't deny the problem, and then blame it on Joe Six. Joe may often be greedy, but he is rarely amoral. He is not likely to burn down the house, and his kids with it to collect the insurance. The sociopath has no qualms, and is ready to justify his behavior. Because they are usually above average intelligence, they are very good at it. Unhinged, clever, and dangerous. Their deranged mental state also appears to be quite contagious.


I’ve been calling for DOW 30k. You aren’t going to see a crash for a while with the amount of printing, stimulus and rate cuts we’re having. The markets don’t care about data, only free money and rate cuts and Trump is begging for more....and he’ll get them


Equity outflows are huge, volume is pathetic, and stock buy backs (the sole agent for the rise of this market to date) are dying. The FED may be shooting at 30K, where or not they make it could be a different story.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 20 Jan 2020, 10:58:35

IMF Slashes Global GDP Forecast For 6th Consecutive Time, Warns "Climate Change" Will Hit Economy
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/imf ... e-will-hit

And the most amusing risk, one not seen before, climate change:

Weather-related disasters such as tropical storms, floods, heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires have imposed severe humanitarian costs and livelihood loss across multiple regions in recent years. Climate change, the driver of the increased frequency and intensity of weather-related disasters, already endangers health and economic outcomes, and not only in the directly affected regions. It could pose challenges to other areas that may not yet feel the direct effects, including by contributing to cross-border migration or financial stress (for instance, in the insurance sector). A continuation of the trends could inflict even bigger losses across more countries.
But... but... whatever happened to the idiotic Keynesian "broken window" mantra: after all, what better reason to rebuild something over, and over, and over again than arson "global warming" causing all those Australian fires. Oh wait, it was arson. Nevermind, point still stands.

Perhaps the most ominous sign is that despite the "end" of the trade war, global trade volume forecasts were cut again, by 0.3% and 0.1% in 2020 and 2021 to 2.9% and 3.7%, respectively. The good news: both are an improvement to the dismal 1.0% recorded in 2019. Expect these numbers to be substantially cut in the coming quarters as the much anticipated global trade renaissance fails to emerge.


No mention of the exploding debt, central bank marathon printing, or fossil fuel depletion? In their place we get the "biggest snow job in history"; climate change.

"Once the rockets go up, who cares where they come down. That's not my department said Wernher von Braun". They will say NOTHING that upsets the Stock Market!! They know exactly what side their bread is buttered on!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 20 Jan 2020, 17:58:56

Baltic Dry Continues Epic Plunge As IMF Slashes Global GDP Forecast
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Mon 20 Jan 2020, 19:28:27

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 21 Jan 2020, 09:10:07

A sluggish recovery is what happened when Mo hit Larry in the head with a hammer. With $300 trillion in debt hanging over the world, the only recovery that will happen will be in the ICU, just before the doctor pronounces the patient dead.

We hit Peak in early 2019 after the Iranians had 2 mb/d pulled out from under them. The world is in a geopolitical mess with Washington presenting its own dog and pony show, and the American public playing the part of the three legged dog. Two epidemics are sweeping across Asia, global trade is tanking, and the stock market is at nose bleed highs with nothing but central bank funny money to power it. The IMF is now blaming climate change for the slow down as we get from them the biggest "snow job" in history. This will be the kind of sluggish recovery that one can find in any grave yard. Dig them up, show them off as the epitome of health, and replant them. When the bottom falls out of this one, we will be starring down the Grand Canyon with a birds eye view.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 21 Jan 2020, 10:42:24

Money creation and debt are going vertical and will continue to do so.....until it can’t
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Tue 21 Jan 2020, 11:06:11

The US non-financial sector debt to GDP ratio has been horizontal for 10 years.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 21 Jan 2020, 13:48:51

Look at Boeing and Delta Airlines totally collapsing...HAHAHAHAHAHA...you worthless sacks are SCREWED.

Expert stock picker Cog picked Ford which is continually falling while the Commie TSLA soarrs...HAHAHAHA.

Exxon Mobil XOM is dropping like a rock. BP stock failing. Suncor stock failing.

Bankrupt Alberta is "proposing ***MASSIVE**** cuts to healthcare"...How can it be with all that "oil"???

This bankrupt shithole called America is TOAST. And Cog has an IQ of exactly 0.
I've wasted my life talking to pigs and chickens.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 21 Jan 2020, 16:39:15

Weekly GDP Nowcast: nyfed.org/GDPnowcast
Q4 2019 → 1.2%
Q1 2020 → 1.7%


Doubt we’ll see 1.7% Q1
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Tue 21 Jan 2020, 17:10:09

Did I miss the stock market crash?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Tue 21 Jan 2020, 17:12:10

Armageddon wrote:Weekly GDP Nowcast: nyfed.org/GDPnowcast
Q4 2019 → 1.2%
Q1 2020 → 1.7%


Doubt we’ll see 1.7% Q1


You do know what defines a recession right?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 21 Jan 2020, 17:14:56

Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Weekly GDP Nowcast: nyfed.org/GDPnowcast
Q4 2019 → 1.2%
Q1 2020 → 1.7%


Doubt we’ll see 1.7% Q1


You do know what defines a recession right?



We aren’t quite there yet. Getting closer. Trillions of debt is barely keeping GDP above 0. The old man’s viagra is wearing off
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Tue 21 Jan 2020, 17:22:34

Getting closer? Give me a date. I wish to make investments based solely on your doomer stock market crash advice.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 21 Jan 2020, 19:14:44

Cog wrote:Getting closer? Give me a date. I wish to make investments based solely on your doomer stock market crash advice.




Considering Trump is begging for negative interest, and he’ll get them, I don’t see a recession until after the election.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 21 Jan 2020, 21:32:51

Armageddon wrote:Considering Trump is begging for negative interest, and he’ll get them, I don’t see a recession until after the election.


If that's the case, why not stop posting until then?

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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