[scssvop]

Wow, I've never had so much debate in a first post before. Thanks for the welcome guys.

[scssvop]

The fields they are finding have bigger and bigger payouts.

I read that much and I got bored. The rest has to be nonsense?

What is bigger and bigger? I remember when Kashagan was the next big thing. When was that? Back around 1998 when the OOIP was thought to be 60 billion barrels and then it was downgraded to 10 billion barrels. Is anything coming from that sulfurous pit? No.

There have been ZERO super giants to replace the North Sea, Cantarell, North Slope . . . . much less Ghawar. Now they are all tiny pikers and the real decline is 6.7%

I guess I didn't know what I was getting myself into when I posted... I agree with your statement that there have been no "Super Giants" lately. But the "Super Giants" were the easy oil. They were literally begging to be found. Cantarell was found by a fisherman! Gwahar was most probably bubbling out of the ground.

Luckily, the oil industry is still making "major" finds; although, it is taking more technology to find and develop these wells.

Another option is oil shale. The technology is coming to successfully extract and process this abundant resource. It is estimated that recoverable oil from oil shale exceeds the world's proven oil reserves.

Just a thought. What do you think?

[scssvop]

As the price to discover oil becomes higher, the price of oil will rise to cover those costs. I don't think oil will be here forever, but I think it will still be here for a long time to come at a reasonable cost.

I remember reading oil prices over $80 cause economic distress in some research by the Wharton School of Business a few years ago (sorry, no link). I have also read numerous articles, many from Saudi Arabia, that agree with that assessment. Since oil is currently at or above this reasonable cost, I don't understand your statement at all.

As the price to discover oil becomes higher, the price of oil will rise to cover those costs. I don't think oil will be here forever, but I think it will still be here for a long time to come at a reasonable cost.

I remember reading oil prices over $80 cause economic distress in some research by the Wharton School of Business a few years ago (sorry, no link). I have also read numerous articles, many from Saudi Arabia, that agree with that assessment. Since oil is currently at or above this reasonable cost, I don't understand your statement at all.

Yes, oil above $80 does cause economic distress. This is a proven fact, but this is not to the extent that it will shut down world economies as it seems you are thinking. At least not now.

No matter the price of oil, I will still need to get to work. Oil above $100 isn't going to stop me from buying a tank of gas. It might stop me from buying a new fishing boat, and I may have to make a few other minor changes in order to support my preferred way of life. I am sure lower income families and undeveloped nations may have a harder time coping.

The good news is that as the price of oil rises, demand for alternative resources and fuel savings rise. This will spur new industries and economic growth. This is already happening, just at a slow pace. Look at how the last round of high oil prices spurred the growth of fuel efficient cars. I've never seen so many hybrids and Smartcars. (Not of importance, but I thought it was cool... Porche's new hybrid electric: http://www.examiner.com/x-8178-Phoenix- ... oncept-car)

Anyway, I see where your going, but I don't think it is an issue at this point in time...

[scssvop]

Thank you for the warm welcome. I have to admit I have never heard of EROEI. I did a quick search though. From what I understand, it is a concept of diminishing return. Correct?

I always thought concern about EROEI was silly because extracting energy would become quite likely become unprofitable BEFORE EROEI goes to 1:1 because in monetary terms the Energy Invested is just one cost of several...

If you managed to stay profitable despite EROEI being less than 1:1, it would indicate you are using some energy input that is (cheaper) and that the energy output is of some form that is more useful to parties willing to pay (profitable)

If it took 5000 units of solar energy to extract 4000 units of petroleum energy, I would say that is a fair exchange.

Good point.

[scssvop]

Did you get anything out of the SLB/Smith merger, too?

Thanks for the welcome.

I believe the SLB / Smith merger was a smart move on SLB's part. They will be able to expand their directional drilling business, plus much more.

With the economy the way it is, it is a good time to acquire new businesses to expand your brand. Plus you can them up at a discount.

More importantly, I've heard rumors of another MAJOR acquisition today (Not involving SLB). Keep your ears open!

[GoghGoner]

The good news is that as the price of oil rises, demand for alternative resources and fuel savings rise.

Well, the response to this comment could easily fill a book but a couple of quick points:

The alternative source so far is ethanol in the United States. One problem with that alternative is the price of corn is now arbitraged to the price oil. Since the United States, not only consumes mainly corn but also is the largest exporter in the world, the rising price of oil greatly increases world hunger and reduces consumption of other goods. (really we are not replacing oil with ethanol but with natural gas since that is the main input).

The second quick point is that Prius drivers actually put more miles on their vehicles than non-hybrid drivers because it is cheaper (see Jevons paradox). Hybrids do not reduce oil consumption.

The third quick point is if everybody starts consuming less goods then Capitalism is no longer viable. Furthermore, in reduced growth scenarios, the national debt is too burdensome and the government defaults.

[scssvop]

The good news is that as the price of oil rises, demand for alternative resources and fuel savings rise.

Well, the response to this comment could easily fill a book but a couple of quick points:

The alternative source so far is ethanol in the United States. One problem with that alternative is the price of corn is now arbitraged to the price oil. Since the United States, not only consumes mainly corn but also is the largest exporter in the world, the rising price of oil greatly increases world hunger and reduces consumption of other goods. (really we are not replacing oil with ethanol but with natural gas since that is the main input).

The second quick point is that Prius drivers actually put more miles on their vehicles than non-hybrid drivers because it is cheaper (see Jevons paradox). Hybrids do not reduce oil consumption.

The third quick point is if everybody starts consuming less goods then Capitalism is no longer viable. Furthermore, in reduced growth scenarios, the national debt is too burdensome and the government defaults.

What I meant here was "The good news is that as the price of oil rises, demand for alternative resources and the DEMAND for fuel savings rise."

This will in turn spur capitalism as entrepreneurs see the benefits ($$$) in alternative resources. I believe this is starting to happen now. It will be a slow process, but we are moving in the right direction.

I agree with your point on ethanol. Ethanol is probably not the right answer. How did they not foresee the negatives in the use of corn for fuel??? I thought it was common sense...

I disagree with your stance on capitalism. Consumption can always decrease, but it will never go to zero. Some industries might fail, but there will always be a need for necessities such as food, shelter, etc. In every economic downturn, there always emerges a giant. Examples: Procter and Gamble, IBM, GE, and during the Oil Crisis of 1973 - Fed-Ex.

[schmuckduck]

Hey everyone.

I used to post here way back in 2004 under the name "pterodactyl". My old login details don't work anymore though so I've re-registered with this name.

I'm interested in all aspects of peak oil, particularly how things are likely to play out in Australia.

[Narz]

welcome back, I wasn't here back then but things have changed quite a bit since even I've been here.

[Carlhole]

Hey everyone.

I used to post here way back in 2004 under the name "pterodactyl". My old login details don't work anymore though so I've re-registered with this name.

I'm interested in all aspects of peak oil, particularly how things are likely to play out in Australia.

You only posted once as "pterodactyl" although I seem to remember seeing that user name.

[concerned pilot]

Hello all
Like you all I am concerned about the road we as a society / species are taking.
After reading a couple of books (the empty tank, the long emergency) and from my own observations, I am starting to become very aware of what we are doing to our planet (I have flown over the Tar sands in Northern Alberta, It's disturbing), and how we are being kept in the dark about certain issues. Pollution in general, peak oil/the end of the oil age, over population to name just a few. Not to mention my career of choice – aviation (yes I know I’m going to get flamed for this) is most likely going to be priced beyond what most can afford. I better have a back up plan career wise for my latter years.

While I’m still flying I plan on building an off grid house near the city I live in using alternate building techniques.

I just thought I’d introduce myself, as I will more likely be lurking most of the time.


Ontario, Canada.

[Nefarious]

Welcome
Nothing wrong with your profession.We all do what we have to in order to put food on the table. Hell I work in the offshore oil industry

[mos6507]

Welcome
Nothing wrong with your profession.We all do what we have to in order to put food on the table. Hell I work in the offshore oil industry

There is something wrong with it if he feels bad about it. Becoming a doomer tends to change people's core value systems and hence change their lives more often than not.

[concerned pilot]

Oh I don't feel bad about it at all, I just know some environmental types frown on aviation, and I figure there are more then a few on here.
I'm hoping down the road that biofuels (algae based) really take off, or whatever scientific wizardry the pointy heads can come up with. In the mean time I’m just watching, reading, and hoping that this is blown out of proportion.
Either way, peak oil or not, we do need to change how we live to something a bit less destructive.

[Nefarious]

Why should he feel bad about it? He stated that he was "starting" to become aware about it. I am sure he was a pilot long before he knew anything about resource depletion and overshoot.What's done is done and can't be undone.Why leave a career to start over at the bottom of a new one? Especially this late in the game of resource depletion. It's what he does from this point out that makes the difference. If he goes on with the unnecessary materialistic consumption from the wealth garnered from his wages then yeah I can see your point. If on the other hand he uses his new found knowledge and his paycheck to make his own personal life more sustainable, then good for him I say! Still won't make a dent in the grand scheme of things to come though.

[Nefarious]

Oh I don't feel bad about it at all, I just know some environmental types frown on aviation, and I figure there are more then a few on here.
I'm hoping down the road that biofuels (algae based) really take off, or whatever scientific wizardry the pointy heads can come up with. In the mean time I’m just watching, reading, and hoping that this is blown out of proportion.You haven't read enough!! The hard truth of the matter will scare the shit out of you!!


Either way, peak oil or not, we do need to change how we live to something a bit less destructive.

The majority won't change!! It's cover your ass time and take care of yourself!!

[Nefarious]

A good video for beginners on youtube is called "the most important video you will ever see" I tried to do a direct link but I couldn't get it to load sorry.

[energywonk]

Hello all,

I've been a long time reader relatively (past two years perhaps). This site is amazing. What a resource to learn about energy and its all encompassing impact. The scholarship here is incredible. I've learned a great deal and I feel like I've only scratched the surface. I even utilized this site as a resource for a peak oil presentation.

On a side note. I'm a recent college grad who is seeking to forge a career in energy policy. I desire advice from this educated community on what moves I should make to advance this goal. What section of the forum would be appropriate for such inquires?

[tonyhavens]

but I just decided to formally register...

Well folks, it's been quite a ride over the the years, from the early sparse postings, to today's flood of bad news.

As a business owner originally based in Hong Kong (18 years!) I had plenty of spare time to indulge my interests, including researching peak energy and climate change - an interest that became an obsession as the projections grew grimmer, and the visible evidence of change for the worse grew weekly more apparent.

Together with a few close friends who share my interest in parsing the future, we decided to act on our knowledge a few years ago. I moved my family of five to New Zealand, and haven't regretted the move for an instance. I took a cut in income of roughly 80%, but my quality of life is so much better that it more than compensates. Some of my other friends took equally bold leaps. I have had the chance to speak with many ex-pats here, and I can tell you, I am not alone in my motives for moving here.

I hope that all of us who have been thinking about these issues, gather the courage to make their own leaps to some community that has the means to stand above the fray...

[Revi]

I have known about peak oil for a while too.

I live in Maine, which might or might not be the place to be.

Any port in a storm.