[Omne]

Hello everyone. I am a long time lurker and daily reader for the last two years, and feel like I know many of you.

Thanks for all the incredible info I have learned from all of you. I hope to give some back here, which is my main reason for not lurking anymore....that and a new computer.

[GoghGoner]

Hello, Omne.

Random thought: I have recently read that stress induces humans to recognize patterns that do not exist. What patterns am I recognizing that do not exist? I am under stress? I suppose I need a brain scan done!

[CynthiaPettiford]

I couldn't agree with you more. Oil takes a long time to exist and we're using it quicker than it's being made. In the end the price will go up so much that only the rich will be able to use it. We need to slow down with our oil consumption a lot. But the fact is most people wont.

[scssvop]

I am new to the site, but have found the boards quite interesting so far. I started in the Oil Industry as an SCSSV Operator for SLB, and have since moved to an Account Manger position at another Fortune 500 Oil Company. I have started my own oil and gas job board, and am thinking about going into recruiting full time.

I hope that my input can become a valuable part of the board.

Paul

[SeaGypsy]

Welcome aboard! Ever heard of EROEI? I'm sure certain posters would like your comments on this key subject!

[scssvop]

Thank you for the warm welcome. I have to admit I have never heard of EROEI. I did a quick search though. From what I understand, it is a concept of diminishing return. Correct?

While this concept is true with almost any non-renewable resource, I do not think we are at the point where this is a major concern, yet. I do believe that oil is getting harder to find. Most of the easy oil is gone. The days where you could poke a stick in the ground and find oil are over, but there are many undiscovered oil reservoirs left. New technologies are coming out all the time to discover new sources of oil.

We are pushing further out into the ocean in deeper and deeper water. These projects cost in the billions to find, drill, complete, and produce the oil. Even though there is a bigger investment, there is even a bigger return. The fields they are finding have bigger and bigger payouts. The major oil companies pay good money to analyze their potential finds and before they start one of these billion dollar projects, they normally have enough information to know they will make a good return on their investment. Sometimes it doesn't work out that way, but that is the game they play. Take a look at Rigzone to see some of the huge finds they are making recently.

Then their is the concept of supply and demand. As the price to discover oil becomes higher, the price of oil will rise to cover those costs. I don't think oil will be here forever, but I think it will still be here for a long time to come at a reasonable cost.

I do believe we need to invest in cleaner technology and find alternatives to oil and gas because it is not an unlimited resource. Although, I think there will still be a place for the Oil and Gas Industry even as we find these alternatives.

[TheDude]

Hi scssvop. Don't mind pstarr, he's an oil bear ne plus ultra. No harm in that, of course. Kashagan has been quite the problem child. Also Jack 2. The Brazilians at least are moving ahead, but Tupi is delivering dribbles so far; a field like Prudhoe delivered its goods in a bit more timely fashion, once they finished up with TAPS of course.



What was that, 2 years to near full plateau production? By those measures Tupi should've have been cranking last year. From discovery of Prudhoe in '68 to online at 1 mb/d in '76 that's comparable to the timeline for that pre salt junk. Bit higher than a piddling 300 kb/d though. And they had all those political obstacles to clear.

I enjoy discussing this stuff. You'll run into "OilFinder2" as well, who will gleefully quote the Petrobras brass about how Tupi will be producing 10 mb/d or the like, too. See ya there!

Did you get anything out of the SLB/Smith merger, too?

[GoghGoner]

As the price to discover oil becomes higher, the price of oil will rise to cover those costs. I don't think oil will be here forever, but I think it will still be here for a long time to come at a reasonable cost.

I remember reading oil prices over $80 cause economic distress in some research by the Wharton School of Business a few years ago (sorry, no link). I have also read numerous articles, many from Saudi Arabia, that agree with that assessment. Since oil is currently at or above this reasonable cost, I don't understand your statement at all.

[rangerone314]

Thank you for the warm welcome. I have to admit I have never heard of EROEI. I did a quick search though. From what I understand, it is a concept of diminishing return. Correct?

I always thought concern about EROEI was silly because extracting energy would become quite likely become unprofitable BEFORE EROEI goes to 1:1 because in monetary terms the Energy Invested is just one cost of several...

If you managed to stay profitable despite EROEI being less than 1:1, it would indicate you are using some energy input that is (cheaper) and that the energy output is of some form that is more useful to parties willing to pay (profitable)

If it took 5000 units of solar energy to extract 4000 units of petroleum energy, I would say that is a fair exchange.

[TheDude]

I never took much of an interest in EROEI since no one outside of academia shows much of any interest in it in the first place - ROI is all the matters to a company, and from what I've gathered people in investing generally treat the concept with puzzlement, as scssvop has. I'm not denying that it can be a useful tool, but its adoption by the world at large at this stage seems as likely as a viral worker's revolution against the bourgeois, i.e., not going to happen, whatever its popularity among certain segments of society.

Instead I attempt to model how energy and tech are evolving, not that I approve of the direction civilization is headed in, but because that is what will happen, regardless of how I feel about the sustainability or desirability of such a path.

[Maddog78]

Yet another person who actually works in the industry pops in to state the importance of the concept of EROEI to the oil and gas industry when it comes to deciding to proceed on pfojects.

[efarmer]

I myself have looked all around the table and have not seen one single sucker
in the card game.

This troubled me until I realized that we are probably all going to win.

I'll see your deep water exploit and raise you all a water powered car.

[rangerone314]

I have joined the cornucopians and sincerely believe this is our future:

flyingpig.jpg

Ooops I meant this:

Jetsonslogo640x480.jpg

[efarmer]

Welcome new member! In addition to stimulating content and real discussions,
you will note we lampoon the extreme doomer and cornucopia veiwpoint here
as well. Even if we are one or another.

[Speculawyer]

I'm a computer Engineer & Patent Attorney. I'm very interested in Peak oil. I feel I have lots to offer to the discussion & analysis. I've been big into EVs, I read Twilight in the Desert (although I'm not as alarmist as Simmons), and I've listened to hours of podcasts on Peak oil (mostly interviews of key knowledgeable people).

Now let me get rolling.

[Bas]

welcome to the board, Speculawyer

[Revi]

This is a great place to rant! Welcome to our world.

[TheDude]

Hey Speculawyer. Regarding EVs we had a very knowledgeable guy here, the_toecutter, unfortunately like so many others he's MIA. I'm very interested in how alt fuels are propagating, particularly in the US. Not so much in the nuts and bolts, just the MSRP. If they marketed them in great enough numbers and revamped some laws we could all drive golf carts, after all.

[Kristen]

I worked at a patent & trademark law firm during the big 147 price hike. As the front desk receptionist, I brought it up to several lawyers in conversation (then it was easy because gas was approaching four dollars a gallon( and most of them had never heard of it. So I asked myself, what could I do to plant that sliver of knowledge a little further and renamed the coffee. Instead of regular and decaf, I chose heavy sour crude, and light sweet crude. Every little bit helps right?

[Revi]

We have been driving around in our little solar ev for three summers now. It's been fun and it could work for most people as a way to get around for less than a quarter of what it costs to keep a gas car on the road. If you live in an area that's posted under 35 you could do all your shopping, take the kids places and never buy gas again.