[timmac]

Well I think its ok to say if we are heading in the right or wrong direction, doesn't really mean it as a prediction or fact, just ones opinion.

My opinion is that we are on the wrong path and have little time before its to late to change that path before we end up as a 3rd world nation..

[davep]

Well I think its ok to say if we are heading in the right or wrong direction, doesn't really mean it as a prediction or fact, just ones opinion.

My opinion is that we are on the wrong path and have little time before its to late to change that path before we end up as a 3rd world nation..

There's nothing wrong with voicing your opinion, IMO of course.

[Phildo]

How about giving your prognosis to set the ball rolling?

I guess that was directed to me? If so, like I just mentioned in the post above, I tend towards Shell's Scenario Planning Methods.

For a background on that: link

Here are some of their past ones: link

Last Year's Scenarios they ran and published only had two paths -- they called them the Scramble and Blueprints scenarios. Scramble is the case where we all fight over the diminishing resources, Blueprints is where we all plan and work together for the brighter future.

It is covered in text, "cartoons," and video links on this page: link

While that is the "World View," you were both asking specifically about America? I see that choice as old as Genesis. You may be familiar with this . . . .

"I call heaven and earth to witness against you today, that I have set before you life and death, the blessing and the curse. So choose life in order that you may live, you and your descendants,"

To me choosing Oil (and Coal) is death. So for me, with my mild Jesus-freakiness and three #1 priorities -- ages 7, 5, and 2 -- mentioned in the First Post of this thread - I must Choose Life.

However, I think the jury is still out on America.

[Phildo]

How would a farming area be the worse place to be past Peak Oil ??, I would think Vegas would be the 1st to go..

If you hit that Wiki link above, it covers how late the area was to Mechanize their farming due to the hilly and rolling nature of the terrain. They would use teams of 40!!! horses to move combine-harvesters through the fields.

Maybe that indicates now the relatively high Horsey-Power of present diesel equipment used? Dunno.

But if that is the case I am thinking it is a super area for Electric Farming. Grand Coulee is not that far away and has unbelievably cheap electricity rates across the region.

[Ferretlover]

Welcome to Peakoil.com.

[GetAbike]

Hello everybody-
yep, I was kidding about "the worst place in world for PO"- just trying to discourage the zombie hordes ya see.

[JustaGirl]

Same Phildo from LATOC?

I have children close to the same ages (5 and 1), which is why i'm interested in peak oil at all.

I'm very interested to hear more about electric farming, something i've been told over and over again can't be done. It's nice to have you here!

[Bas]

Welcome Phildo.

reading what you wrote already I think you should be a fine addition to the forum

[BlisteredWhippet]

Hi there Phildo.

Shell's scenarios don't include any choices that would negatively impact Shell's core business model.

For Shell, this is all a massive PR stunt. Their scenarios are concerned with Shell and Shell's business sector and continuity as it applies to Shell.

Shell's core business, oil discovery and exploitation, is shrinking. They are being pushed out of deals all over the world as remaining reserves are being nationalized. The fact is that without broad support, their business evaporates by 2020.

Their outlook is to diversify into CO2 trading and possible sequestration, discovery and exploitation of remaining reserves, and eventually transition more heavily into energy markets.

Looking over their website scenarios, several things come to mind. They are advocating a strong NGO and government hand in creating markets through regulation and legislation. Since they are part of a cabal of wealthy multinationals, and have been running their sectors via the government for 20 years, it seems guaranteed to continue. All you need to do is buy the latest products, and vote for one of the two leading candidates. Apparently everything else will work itself out.

[DomusAlbion]

Welcome GetAbike!
I'm sure your post was tongue in cheek. The Palouse is a paradise and will be a beautiful place to be when the rest of the nation declines. Excellant farm land, sparsely populated, mild weather and two great universities. We have a farm just south of the Clearwater river down in a sheltered valley.
For the next couple of years we’ll be further south in Boise with summer trips to the farm. See you around on PO and the Palouse.

[hillsidedigger]

I spent the summers of 1976 and 1977 driving combines on the steep rolling hills around Dayton, Washington which I guess being south of the Snake River is not actually a part of the Palouse region but close.

The Palouse is characterized by 30' and more of topsoil which accumulated from the series of volcanic eruptions in the Cascades (and which hasn't washed away yet because it doesn't rain much at all in that region).

[Phildo]

Same Phildo from LATOC?

Yeah.

Looks like the Crazy Witch Hunt stuff is calming down, but the Church-of-Doom stuff gets old.

Put up a formal good-bye, yesterday.

I have children close to the same ages (5 and 1), which is why i'm interested in peak oil at all.

Yeah, kids change everything, huh?

Suppose it may be why I am not Doomer. Dunno.

The kids LOVE to play with the Renewable Energy stuff. They have little hard hats and tools belts. One day they all got in a fight about pulling nails. (that is a favorite task, and we tend to use almost all salvage on the RE projects) I "fired" them from the job site (our side yard). They were mad for a day, we talked about it and did some "re-employment counseling" and hired them all back.

I'm very interested to hear more about electric farming, something i've been told over and over again can't be done. It's nice to have you here!

Thanks. Good to be here.

Suppose some 100 years ago folks figured that farming could never be done without Horses? Dunno, but once the Concrete-between-our-ears gets set-up it can be hard to crack and change. Think I might have avoided some of that by being permanently immature.

From observation, I think I see that folks seem to get stuck in the batteries or extension cord mindset? If something can be turned by a diesel/gas/propane etc. Internal Combustion Engine, it can be turned by an Electric Motor -- generally Cheaper, Faster and Better.

To tell you the truth, the really hard part of the business was already done. I think if you take a long view backwards converting from Horses to the various fuel engines was FAR harder than taking the last 100 years development and just putting 'tricity to it.

[Phildo]

Welcome Phildo.

reading what you wrote already I think you should be a fine addition to the forum

Thanks.

I like that you seem to have fostered a very open and diverse view forum.

Good work on that.

[Phildo]

Hi there Phildo.

Shell's scenarios don't include any choices that would negatively impact Shell's core business model.

For Shell, this is all a massive PR stunt. Their scenarios are concerned with Shell and Shell's business sector and continuity as it applies to Shell.

Shell's core business, oil discovery and exploitation, is shrinking. They are being pushed out of deals all over the world as remaining reserves are being nationalized. The fact is that without broad support, their business evaporates by 2020.

Their outlook is to diversify into CO2 trading and possible sequestration, discovery and exploitation of remaining reserves, and eventually transition more heavily into energy markets.

Looking over their website scenarios, several things come to mind. They are advocating a strong NGO and government hand in creating markets through regulation and legislation. Since they are part of a cabal of wealthy multinationals, and have been running their sectors via the government for 20 years, it seems guaranteed to continue. All you need to do is buy the latest products, and vote for one of the two leading candidates. Apparently everything else will work itself out.

No real disagreements in that.

I am not really a fan of Shell, their products, or their business, per se -- BUT I respect their extreme competence in what they do. Do you follow the difference?

Even on the Technical Side of things they are leaders in quality. The API (American Petroleum Institute) standards and specs we use in the Energy Engineering side of things is extremely competent. I can just read and read their documents -- like Mind Candy. Major player behind that? Shell Oil.

I agree that Shell is in it for Shell. And the links I put there was mostly because I was just being lazy on explaining the Best/Worst/Changed Case Scenario planning models. If you are at all into that at all -- grab a copy of that "Art of The Long View" book. Good read, but EXCELLENT concept. I first read it back when I was a US Army LT, and still use it on most projects, today.

You are correct -- The real underlying calculus behind the Blueprints v. Scramble was Shell was thinking it was running out of Oil around 2014 to 2015.

Mercedes figured out the same thing for themselves. They are slated to be out of producing Gas/Oil burners by 2015. I respect Mercedes the same as I do Shell -- for their competence. As maybe contrasted with the Corporate Incompetence folks like GM.

The CO2 stuff put on the Shell presentation is fluff for the public. Most of the Energy folks are also cross-tied as Bankers and just see the "Carbon issues" as more bankable/money assets. Could do a whole thread on my board-room experiences on that game.

[alex.rongli]

Hello, every one. I'm a new guy from China. Now I am in oil machinery business. Really hope that I can make friends in this area abroad. Of course, anyone else. I love making friends. If it's the same to you, leave me a message. EXPECTING

Deleted personal info

[SeaGypsy]

Hi, if you really are from China, that's great & even better if you stick around. We talk a lot about China here. I hope you are using a proxy as some of the messages on this site are not particularly supportive of the regime in your country. If you are able to contribute an insider's perspective from China that would be valued by many here. Welcome aboard!

[BlisteredWhippet]

My thoughts are that Shell wants to become the IBM of the energy world. If that's the case, I think they need better ideas, but, I think they are just getting started.

The larger subtext, for me, is the realization that a consumer-driven economy of the kind of scale it is currently operating is a far more powerful force shaping the world than the fanciful idealism of social, cultural, or political change.

Its taking us down a road we have no choice but to follow, We can gather around the virtual campfire of PO.com and talk about it all we want, it makes no difference to the aggregate economic forces all around us.

Individually and collectively I think we were constructed for a simpler existence. Politics arose from social spheres. And cultures are aggregates that act on individuals but rarely the other way around. Historically social movements provided the leverage to enact broader social and political change. In America though, all such fulcrums have eroded, while corporations have grown exponentially more powerful. Corporations have inserted their priorities in between politics and society, between individuals and group interests. This happened organically, which is to say that it serves the human metabolism. It was probably inevitable.

The leading thinkers in the field today are seeing clearly that the boundary is ecological, not economic. Technology will continue to try and end-run around ecological limits as long as possible, but at the cost of ecology and by reflection, against the economy. The ecology is the ultimate limiting factor.

I agree with the view that human beings move with cultures and cultures are in turn informed by mythological, archetypal thinking. Therefore, a good predictor of future reactionary movement is an analysis of the cultural artifacts that a society produces, and what artifacts tell about its trajectory through history.

It might seem like "Consumerism", "Americanism", etc. are emergent forces, gobbling up local identities, but I think that is misconstruing the similarities in favor of differences. In total, the modern technologist is simply an heir to Western tradition and that goes all the way back to ancient Greece.

When I think about Greece, I am always reminded that, at the height of their empire before their collapse, they invented the first university. It was to be a sort of successor to the town or city form of civilization. For instance, the value systems were turned upside down and some values were elevated above others and the more mundane, economic-type of society segregated.

I see in this iteration of western society we have achieved the same level- we have our segregated areas of higher learning. The question is, is this simply revisiting the previous high-water mark? To me, it seems we have hit something of a ceiling, and in order to advance, the ideals that carried us this far have to somehow spill over and transform everything else. The universities we do have do not seem to provide that. We do not have armies of educators pouring forth across the land, enrolling us all in classes to expand our minds. Instead, most of the fruit is given away- to corporations- who may be the barbarians at the edges after all.

[Phildo]

Thanks BlisteredWhippet . . . . .

Fair amount of thinking you have there in one post.

I have had to pass through it a few times to even get it to start to sink in.


The areas I am sharp in, I tend to be fairly sharp . . . where I am not . . . . not so much. Such is what focus and specialization can do to a person. You have certainly wandered into part of my not so sharp domain.

Were I to try to translate all that you have said into East Texas singy-song simple -- I would probably drawl out -- "Yep. Things are what they are."

But if I sort of understand what you are saying -- culture, economics, class, and social structure all tie together in the world around as sort of a self-forming networked inter-related system?

[BlisteredWhippet]

But if I sort of understand what you are saying -- culture, economics, class, and social structure all tie together in the world around as sort of a self-forming networked inter-related system?

Yes, so there is tremendous pressure to continue cultural, economic, and social structure traditions barring any force that prevents that continuation.

If we want a difference in terms of our own life, we can summon the will to quit smoking or take up jogging or learn a new skill.

But if we want to change culture, society, or economics, that's like the tail wagging the dog.

I am a bit of a fatalist when it comes to humanity in its current configuration. I am optimistic that genetics and molecular biology might create a superhuman race that could conceivably, by the mass effect of individual action, create something of a new fabric for the alteration of culture, society, and social structure, and permit the continuation of the species within ecological limits. That, I think is a fine goal. There were no dullards on the starship Enterprise...

There is of course the black swan hypothesis that unexpected events can and will produce significant change, but I think a response (social, cultural or political) is an example of a reactionary impulse and not a creative one.

[lei]

hi im lei and its nice to be here to share some stories with you guys..