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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Demand Destruction Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Whither Peak Oil?

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 06 Nov 2008, 07:23:43

waegari wrote:
Tanada wrote:My big concern is it appears at this point the new Administration is going to go after fossil fuel reductions in a big way. Given Peak Oil that is going to happen no matter what they do, but a side effect of this is they will be blamed for the effects of Peak Oil despite the fact that nothing they can do will keep it from happening.


Absolutely. My worst fear is the backlash from that. What sort of a president will Americans support next time around? Obama is bound to disappoint loads and loads of people if he is not 100% candid on peak oil.


Exactly my point. I grew up in a truely Democrat Party family, my parents, syblings and kinfolk all vote Dem almost straight ticket. I think Mr. Obama because of events completly outside of his controll will be dealing with such a mess through Peak Oil that he will be the last Democrat President for a long time, or maybe the last ever because the party may go the way of the Whig party and be replaced in the system.
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Re: Whither Peak Oil?

Unread postby IslandCrow » Thu 06 Nov 2008, 07:31:14

waegari wrote: Obama is bound to disappoint loads and loads of people if he is [s]not [/s]100% candid on peak oil.


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Re: Whither Peak Oil?

Unread postby kjmclark » Thu 06 Nov 2008, 07:45:07

waegari wrote:First: telling the American public that they cannot have it both ways. That is, both energy independence and a downright continuation of the American Way of Life. I didn't get the impression that the crowds at Chicago Grant Park were much aware of that problem.


Actually, you might be surprised. That speech was given in downtown Chicago. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that 2/3 of that quarter million people got to the park by El, bus, bike, walking, and carpooling. People in Chicago *get* public and non-motorized transportation.

That's actually a bit hopeful. When President Obama gets hit with constant bad news about gas prices, he's going to fondly remember his hometown of Chicago and how people there accept high gas prices and ubiquitous transit and bike infrastructure, and might think "It works in Chicago, let's start putting it in everywhere."
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Re: Whither Peak Oil?

Unread postby kjmclark » Thu 06 Nov 2008, 07:46:03

vtsnowedin wrote:8) Well the President elect did repeatedly stated that he wants to move to energy independance. Now that he has got the job will he put someone on it that is peak oil aware and might push forward something that is usefull? For that matter is there consensus here about what the government should be doing in light of peak oil? I don't think filling bunkers with mylar packed food is a workable national strategy.


Rail. [Edit] ... and bikes.
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Re: Whither Peak Oil?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 06 Nov 2008, 11:33:45

kjmclark wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:8) Well the President elect did repeatedly stated that he wants to move to energy independance. Now that he has got the job will he put someone on it that is peak oil aware and might push forward something that is usefull? For that matter is there consensus here about what the government should be doing in light of peak oil? I don't think filling bunkers with mylar packed food is a workable national strategy.


Rail. [Edit] ... and bikes.


So I should ride a bike to work in January in VT or at least the seven miles to the nearest rail line. (Valleys flat enough for railroad max grades are rare here)? I will start to do this when A. the price of gas gets to $25/gal from gas tax increases or B. The government confiscates all automobiles after declaring martial law. or C. When hell freezes over.

There is a lot of work that should be done to upgrade the rail system. Its amazing how few miles of double track there are nationwide. But they will have to do a lot more than that to deal with Peak Oil.
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Re: Whither Peak Oil?

Unread postby AgentR » Thu 06 Nov 2008, 13:19:43

The media has never cared about the issue.

They do care about outraged gasoline consumers who'll make a spectacle of themselves on TV.

They do care about international politicos jockying for market position.

They love conspiracy, and watch nutbars doing crazy things like hording supplies (stocking up your pantry..).

As soon as the outraged gasoline consumer disappeared; the story died. No "normal person" face to put on the lead in.
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Re: Whither Peak Oil?

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 06 Nov 2008, 14:13:31

TonyPrep wrote:It's not clear that demand destruction has been enough to get production and consumption back in line. The next STEO estimates, from the EIA, will be interesting since the previous one estimated consumption ahead of production for August and September, with production falling, along with consumption.

If the new STEO, next week, continues that imbalance, then oil prices will have become disconnected from market realities and stocks will be wittled away, almost unnoticed, to leave an oil shock in the brewing, even whilst our economies are contracting.


For fun I'm compiling all the data on oil production forecasts from the IEO back to 2000, when the EIA projected 94.4 mb/d. 8) Should make for a nifty chart.

Neither O or Mc made any earth-shaking pronouncements in the campaign, and we'll not get them now. Maybe O will jack it up to 2 million hybrids by 2015? Incidentally US sales are down 2.7%.

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And October looks to be the worst month for sales in 25 years.

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Re: Whither Peak Oil?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Thu 06 Nov 2008, 14:37:33

thuja wrote:We may be able to prolong the plateau phase of Peak Oil through recessionary demand destruction, but the consumption and depletion continues unabated.
My WAG says we most certainly will with demand destruction. Evidently, since everything consumes oil, the more we "save" it, the less we'll grow, prosper, etc.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Whither Peak Oil?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Thu 06 Nov 2008, 14:50:28

TheDude wrote:Maybe O[bama] will jack up to 2 million hybrids by 2015?
From 350K to 2M it's 1.65M new hybrid vehicles. At an average of $20K, that's $33B and it only prolongs the plateau.

Incidentally, the war in Iraq costs $341M per day.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Whither Peak Oil?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 06 Nov 2008, 15:04:40

VMarcHart wrote:
TheDude wrote:Maybe O[bama] will jack up to 2 million hybrids by 2015?
From 350K to 2M it's 1.65M new hybrid vehicles. At an average of $20K, that's $33B and it only prolongs the plateau.

Incidentally, the war in Iraq costs $341M per day.


And the interest on 700 billion is about 100 million per day assuming someone will lend it to us. and the 700 B is a stop gap measure which probably is too little too late and dosn't actually fix the problem and may have made it worse.
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Re: Whither Peak Oil?

Unread postby kjmclark » Thu 06 Nov 2008, 21:33:01

vtsnowedin wrote:So I should ride a bike to work in January in VT or at least the seven miles to the nearest rail line. (Valleys flat enough for railroad max grades are rare here)? I will start to do this when A. the price of gas gets to $25/gal from gas tax increases or B. The government confiscates all automobiles after declaring martial law. or C. When hell freezes over.


Yeah. I guess you're just hosed. Luckily, you have a few more years before this becomes completely untenable. Maybe they'll set up a rural bus route in your area. Actually the real problem you'll run into is lack of maintenance on the roads. You must have a plan for when you get snowed-in in the winter. Just plan for that for a month or two each year. :)

I hope you aren't expecting Obama to solve that transportation problem.
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