Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Has the Great Decline begun?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby bonehead » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 21:47:50

The Dow just had the worst June since 1930 and oil is now trading at $140.Some people think the bottom for the Dow is 10,000.I think it's gonna go lower than that.Opinions anyone?
Gimme some demand destruction.
User avatar
bonehead
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 176
Joined: Mon 15 Oct 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Northeast U.S.Heating oil heaven.

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Jack » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 21:54:05

bonehead wrote:The Dow just had the worst June since 1930 and oil is now trading at $140.Some people think the bottom for the Dow is 10,000.I think it's gonna go lower than that.Opinions anyone?


If it goes below 10,750 then it will probably go significantly lower. If it stays above that level, expect it to rally.
Jack
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4929
Joined: Wed 11 Aug 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby HEADER_RACK » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 21:56:05

Yes I have an opinion. When this really starts playing out- you won't care what the DOW is at.
Nothing is more dangerous than a man with nothing left to lose but has everything left to gain.
User avatar
HEADER_RACK
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu 15 Feb 2007, 04:00:00

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Cashmere » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 22:34:11

How many calories are there in the Dow?
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
User avatar
Cashmere
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1882
Joined: Thu 27 Mar 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Nicholai » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 22:41:42

What is so significant about the DOW hitting 10,000 points? Is it just a measurement of confidence in the markets 500 major companies and their future profitability? It seems like markets are made up of nothing but 'confidence'....I cease to understand them in the slightest. All I know is, at 140$ a barrel and with Americans leaving their homes in droves, this is the beginning of the clusterfuck we call industrial civilization...I give it 1 year to a year and a half. 2010 will be a shit storm. Oil at 250$? Yikes!
User avatar
Nicholai
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 599
Joined: Fri 15 Jun 2007, 03:00:00
Location: St.Albert, AB

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby biofuel13 » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 23:52:27

I'm thinking that the Dow will hit bottom between 5500 and 6750. My father was a broker for 30 years and always has faith in the markets. Last spring for the first time in his professional life he pulled every penny he has out of the markets. Last summer he was saying the Dow would bottom around 11,000. Now he thinks it's more like 8,000.
"With man gone will there be hope for gorilla? With gorilla gone will there be hope for man?" --Ishmael by D. Quinn
User avatar
biofuel13
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 606
Joined: Wed 07 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Chaska, MN

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Milret2 » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 00:42:02

The DOW has a relatively long history. In 1929 it hit an all time high of 381 (since inception at that time) before falling to 41 a couple of years later. It was a mere thirty years later (and a big war) before it ever saw 381 again. A similar loss now would take the DOW to 1135 ... about where it was 23 years ago. If Jim Kunstler is correct in his analysis of peak oil's effect on our markets 1135 will seem not all that bad. I can see his point and I have a least half of my own not inconsiderable assets tied up in investment securities. How ever, if he is right I suspect it does not matter that much one way or another. At least I have had my own share of fun and have no children to worry about.
User avatar
Milret2
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Thu 01 May 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby SoylentGreen » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 10:57:56

Like you said, the '29 crash didnt happen over night. it took 2 or 3 years for the market to bottom out.
The residential real estate market will not come back.People wont have the $ to buy because all thier $ will go to food and fuel.
User avatar
SoylentGreen
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 165
Joined: Sun 25 May 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby allenwrench » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 15:24:45

bonehead wrote:The Dow just had the worst June since 1930 and oil is now trading at $140.Some people think the bottom for the Dow is 10,000.I think it's gonna go lower than that.Opinions anyone?


I don't know. I don't have a crystal ball.

Much of the stock market was / is fueled by the proliferation of new funds. Without the constant creation of funds to fill their portfolios the stock market would be at lower levels.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

But when I think of the stock market I think of Charles Ponzi. The man credited with inventing the first pyramid scheme.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Ponzi

We live in a society of compulsive gamblers and not investors. Watch CNBC and see the Ponzi scheme in action with all the BS they throw at you.

I marvel at the billions lost every day with the sub-prime debacle and how it is replaced at a blink of an eye. The government doesn't have to even print out the money, they just magnetize a silicon chip to create billions.

Consumption is ingrained in us and we know no other way. And even if we wished to amend our ways, how could all our retirement funds take the hit?

Our economy is not based on sustainable health - it is based low interest credit to encourage compulsive spending, debt and living a life of constant consumption with a 'disposable mentality' when it comes to durable goods.

All this consumption to artificially fuel our economy to make our retirement funds only go up contributes to more and more global warming and the depletion of our natural resources.

Then the governments juggle the numbers to make the inflation figures seem artificially low, so everyone's retirement portfolio will make them happy so they will continue to buy and consume more...and on it goes....the bill is coming due soon!
User avatar
allenwrench
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 862
Joined: Wed 23 Apr 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Buggy » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 19:43:57

Hmmmm. Would decline be the same as paradigm shift? Is what about to happen good or bad? For those who die, is it freedom or imprisonment? For those who live, is it freedom or imprisonment? Aren't we already imprisoned and plugged in to a way of life created to collapse? Should I take the red pill or the blue pill?
Buggy
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 283
Joined: Mon 23 Jun 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 20:23:32

SoylentGreen wrote:Like you said, the '29 crash didnt happen over night. it took 2 or 3 years for the market to bottom out.
The residential real estate market will not come back.People wont have the $ to buy because all thier $ will go to food and fuel.
It will, just from the inside out. The higher oil prices go the sooner housing in the city will pop up and the more housing in the burbs will drop.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
User avatar
yesplease
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3765
Joined: Tue 03 Oct 2006, 03:00:00

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 20:30:42

Here is a video about decline and options. It covers some history about how the Roman Empire could have taken steps to stay healthy but due to things like political thinking and bureaucratic inertia they failed to adapt.

https://youtu.be/J4o9NdgN8w8
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 15852
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby GHung » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 09:03:14

Tanada wrote:Here is a video about decline and options. It covers some history about how the Roman Empire could have taken steps to stay healthy but due to things like political thinking and bureaucratic inertia they failed to adapt.

https://youtu.be/J4o9NdgN8w8


Thorium could have saved the Roman Empire??
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3084
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 16:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 09:31:34

GHung wrote:
Tanada wrote:Here is a video about decline and options. It covers some history about how the Roman Empire could have taken steps to stay healthy but due to things like political thinking and bureaucratic inertia they failed to adapt.

https://youtu.be/J4o9NdgN8w8


Thorium could have saved the Roman Empire??

The tragic thing is maybe more than any other civiluzation we could and to some degree did see this DECLINE coming yet did little to forestall or avoid it, And at least to me looks like it will be more a collapse more so than a decline
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10954
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Parabolanus » Fri 20 Mar 2020, 23:29:45

It surely is now because of the pandemic.
..
Parabolanus
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri 20 Mar 2020, 23:22:52

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 04:37:37

onlooker wrote:
GHung wrote:
Tanada wrote:Here is a video about decline and options. It covers some history about how the Roman Empire could have taken steps to stay healthy but due to things like political thinking and bureaucratic inertia they failed to adapt.

https://youtu.be/J4o9NdgN8w8


Thorium could have saved the Roman Empire??

The tragic thing is maybe more than any other civiluzation we could and to some degree did see this DECLINE coming yet did little to forestall or avoid it, And at least to me looks like it will be more a collapse more so than a decline

So NOW you're claiming you saw COVID-19 coming?

Sure. With what functioning time machine?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 8510
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 09:20:00

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
onlooker wrote:
GHung wrote:
Tanada wrote:Here is a video about decline and options. It covers some history about how the Roman Empire could have taken steps to stay healthy but due to things like political thinking and bureaucratic inertia they failed to adapt.

https://youtu.be/J4o9NdgN8w8


Thorium could have saved the Roman Empire??

The tragic thing is maybe more than any other civiluzation we could and to some degree did see this DECLINE coming yet did little to forestall or avoid it, And at least to me looks like it will be more a collapse more so than a decline

So NOW you're claiming you saw COVID-19 coming?

Sure. With what functioning time machine?


He is obviously talking about the ongoing global decline, in general, which inevitably entails a number of crises like this one, not to the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular.

I have been prepping for hurricanes, global pandemics, nuclear war, economic collapse, climate change, etc. for decades. I believe all these things will happen sooner or later, including a nuclear war, which is the only one of those that is not 100% certain that will happen. A global pandemic was a matter of when, not if, IMO.

Did you really not understand that or are you pretending that you didn't to pick a fight for some personal reason?
Last edited by JuanP on Thu 26 Mar 2020, 09:50:17, edited 4 times in total.
Only Americans can hurt America.
Dwight D. Eisenhower
JuanP
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 686
Joined: Sat 16 Aug 2014, 15:06:32

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby GHung » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 09:38:16

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
So NOW you're claiming you saw COVID-19 coming?

Sure. With what functioning time machine?


Perhaps not Outcast specifically, but:

#1 Many of us have warned that our economy has been becoming increasingly vulnerable to black swans and that a pandemic was one of the potential black swans that could set an economic collapse into motion. Some of us have incorporated this into our thinking for years.

#2 I recall this same discussion here and in other forums when Davis Korowitz published "Trade-Off: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: A study in global systemic collapse".
http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upload ... e-Off1.pdf
So this exact scenario has been discussed.

#3 Some people here downplayed these ideas, even ridiculed them (repeatedly calling people "doomers" and all that derision); something some of you continue to do. Someone who can't admit that they have been wrong is high on my list of those guilty of cowardice.

#4 We still have no idea how this will play out, globally, but we can be sure that this period will be life-changing for millions (billions?) and that global debt is exploding off the charts and supply chains have been deeply affected, some permanently perhaps. How TF do you think this will unwind???

#5 Many of you claim/pray we will be back to "BAU" in due time; the same BAU that already had humanity on a suicide path,, refusing to acknowledge that limits to growth and finite planetary barriers to said growth truly exist. Considering the response we've seen so far, I tend to agree with the first part. Humanity will, indeed, continue to fuck itself into eventual extinction, utterly incapable of learning from its mistakes. Therefore, I consider taking a "doomer" stand on things a pretty safe bet, even if doomers get a few specifics wrong.

But go ahead and continue to deride the Outcast Searchers here. It says a lot about you folks. After all, whats a few more $trillion piled on top of the mess we already have? Nobody will remember you anyway. They'll be too busy trying to survive the mess you left behind.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3084
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 16:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 09:52:47

We still have no idea how this will play out, globally, but we can be sure that this period will be life-changing for millions (billions?) and that global debt is exploding off the charts and supply chains have been deeply affected, some permanently perhaps. How TF do you think this will unwind???


Is there some part of bankruptcy that is confusing you? The world is out of fresh water, out of fish stocks, out of good top soil, and very soon out of oil. The only thing that it hasn't run out of yet is people. Being absolutely, completely flat broke has a way of playing out in very specific ways.

Image
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 09:57:28

Hell of a post Ghung. Sorry for your EV fantasy OUTCAST. The very fabric of our Economic system is tearing apart. Maybe a semblance of BAU can continue for a bit longer but resource depletion, including FF, environmental degradation and finally our corrupt venial and yes deranged leaders will insure a total collapse.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10954
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Next

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Baduila and 47 guests