[wisconsin_cur]

There is a line of thought that we sometimes see here. It posits that many in Africa or Asia will not be the first to suffer from PO because they are so less dependent upon oil than we are. I would respond by saying that they are much more dependent upon what they do receive.

We have farther to fall, this does not mean that others will not land on the rocks before us. Bumber crop in former famine stricken Malawi

We will still be struggling along, afraid of what the future might hold, after that fertilizer is no longer available for the farmers of Malawi.

[lorenzo]

This is probably the most important story of the year:

Ending Famine, Simply by Ignoring the Experts

LILONGWE, Malawi — Malawi hovered for years at the brink of famine. After a disastrous corn harvest in 2005, almost five million of its 13 million people needed emergency food aid.

But this year, a nation that has perennially extended a begging bowl to the world is instead feeding its hungry neighbors. It is selling more corn to the World Food Program of the United Nations than any other country in southern Africa and is exporting hundreds of thousands of tons of corn to Zimbabwe.

In Malawi itself, the prevalence of acute child hunger has fallen sharply. In October, the United Nations Children’s Fund sent three tons of powdered milk, stockpiled here to treat severely malnourished children, to Uganda instead. “We will not be able to use it!” Juan Ortiz-Iruri, Unicef’s deputy representative in Malawi, said jubilantly.

Farmers explain Malawi’s extraordinary turnaround — one with broad implications for hunger-fighting methods across Africa — with one word: fertilizer.

New York Times

It is selling to the World Food Program!

This proves the doomers and especially the anti-biofuels idiots wrong once again.

Malawi, of all places, turns from a miserable starving begging bowl into a prosperous major food exporter in *one single year*, with *one single micro-intervention*.

It could have turned its hundreds of thousands of tonnes of excess maize into biofuels, if it had wanted to, and become *fully energy self-sufficient and oil independent*, all *at once*, while having enough food to feed its entire population. (Malawi uses 5500bpd - you need only a few hundred thousand tonnes of maize to replace that; but Malawi has much more potential than this, of course).

This most basic of interventions can be replicated in virtually all sub-Saharan African countries. If it were to be done, Africa would be producing food for 6 billion people and would have plenty of capacity left to replace *all* oil.

African agriculture has an enormous potential, and virtually all African countries should be major food exporters, instead of being importers.

The continent hasn't had its Green Revolution yet, and remains extremely unproductive and inefficient. Once it starts to implement the most basic of agronomic principles, there ain't no stopping it.

Now add the huge capacity in Africa to improve access to better seeds, improve logistics and energy supplies, improve rail, road, waterways, etcetera, -- all of these are basics -- and we will indeed finally see the continent's gigantic potential being tapped.

Don't give us the story about fertilizer being fossil fuels - you can make N from air and water and energy, and the other fertilizers are all mineral, made from rocks; you can grow enough biofuels with very limited inputs and have a very strong energy balance left (e.g. sugarcane ethanol: energy balance 8/10 to 1; cellulosic ethanol: 20 to 1).


So doomers, malthusians, anti-biofuels peepz, - open your eyes, the world is bigger than your backyard or than your TV screen.


The Beginning Is Near! In fact, It Just Started In Malawi!

[Valdemar]

Wow, by fertiliser subsidies too (I like how you omitted that little truth). I'm totally won over, everyone, cancel the doom parade, the party is going on indefinitely.

Because one shit hole making a bit of cash and managing its resources a little better when faced with annihilation is certainly a shining example to illustrate how we should continue as we are now. Forever.

[Pixie]

This is probably the most important story of the year:
Farmers explain Malawi’s extraordinary turnaround — one with broad implications for hunger-fighting methods across Africa — with one word: fertilizer.

New York Times

It is selling to the World Food Program!

This proves the doomers and especially the anti-biofuels idiots wrong once again.

Don't give us the story about fertilizer being fossil fuels - you can make N from air and water and energy, ![/quote]



I'm sorry, Lorenzo, did you just say you need ENERGY to make nitrogen fertilizer? What I read here is that Malawi needs artificial fertilizer to feed its population. That's great that they did it this year, and I encourage them to continue as long as they can, but this result is still dependent on artificial fertilizer, which you just acknowledged requires ENERGY to make.

Once again, let us reiterate, there is no other energy source out there as cheap and quick to produce as light sweet crude once was.

Thank you, Lorenzo for supporting the doomer position.

[frankthetank]

From a climate standpoint, they've had what looks like normal precip and normal temps the last 3 months. I'm guessing lack of drought helps.

[lorenzo]

This is probably the most important story of the year:
Farmers explain Malawi’s extraordinary turnaround — one with broad implications for hunger-fighting methods across Africa — with one word: fertilizer.

New York Times

It is selling to the World Food Program!

This proves the doomers and especially the anti-biofuels idiots wrong once again.

Don't give us the story about fertilizer being fossil fuels - you can make N from air and water and energy, !

I'm sorry, Lorenzo, did you just say you need ENERGY to make nitrogen fertilizer? What I read here is that Malawi needs artificial fertilizer to feed its population. That's great that they did it this year, and I encourage them to continue as long as they can, but this result is still dependent on artificial fertilizer, which you just acknowledged requires ENERGY to make.

Once again, let us reiterate, there is no other energy source out there as cheap and quick to produce as light sweet crude once was.

Thank you, Lorenzo for supporting the doomer position.

[/quote]

Of course you need energy to make synthetic fertilizers. But energy is not necessarily oil and gas. Since this is a Peak *Oil* forum, you will understand that "peak oil" in itself does not mean the end of the fertilizer industry because you can make the stuff from any type of energy.

China has been making nitrogen from coal for decades. Congo's Inga Dam can deliver enough hydroelectricity (44,000MW) to power Africa out of energy poverty and have enough excess left to produce more fertilizer than is currently consumed by the world. You can make synthetic fertilizer from renewables, from nuclear, you name it. There are enough primary energy sources out there.


The thing is that with modest inputs of fertilizers, you can make plants far more productive. That's why I have always been a strong advocate of fertilizers for bioenergy and food production.

There are some fools in here (some call them criminals), who want all Africans to grow organic food - which would basically be the same as mass murder.

Fertilizers are great. Put a bit of the stuff on plants, and yields suddendly double, triple, quadruple, while you get much more energy out of the crops than you originally invested in them.

Get the point?

[cube]

...
Fertilizers are great. Put a bit of the stuff on plants, and yields suddendly double, triple, quadruple, while you get much more energy out of the crops than you originally invested in them.

Get the point?

Lorenzo I enjoy reading your posts even though I completely disagree with you, honestly. However if you don't mind me asking, what do you do for a living? I keep on getting this paranoid feeling that "TPTB - the powers that be" implanted you here to sway public opinion.

[frankthetank]

Lorenzo is like a country boy posting on a rap site. No opinions being swayed here.

[joewp]

Lorenzo is like a country boy posting on a rap site. No opinions being swayed here.

LOL, I think he'd have a better chance trying to convince rappers to listen to country than peddle bullshit like this "Fertilizers are great. Put a bit of the stuff on plants, and yields suddendly double, triple, quadruple, while you get much more energy out of the crops than you originally invested in them."

Lorenzo, meet the laws of thermodynamics. Laws of thermodynamics, meet Lorenzo.

[Pretorian]

If I remember correctly 60% of malawi's export is tabacco. I think its pretty easy to ease hunger if they will cut tabacco's crop to maize or whatever. Any ideas whats going one on tabacco market nowdays?

[big_rc]

Lorenzo,

Have you ever been to Africa? I have spent years in Africa and have traveled through many North, West and Southern African countries and your African "vision" is pretty nutty. Many of the countries I have visited are cesspools of corruption and cannot even fix the damn roads or provide clean water to its citizens. How in the world do you think these governments are going to get there act together enough to utilize all of this "marvelous" potential that exists?

[Concerned]

If I remember correctly 60% of malawi's export is tabacco. I think its pretty easy to ease hunger if they will cut tabacco's crop to maize or whatever. Any ideas whats going one on tabacco market nowdays?

As usual (much like on the oil drum) people get confused with what can happen if we use common sense and share and what will happen in a greed based me first system.

Good luck.

[mark]

The Illusion is strong with you young Lorenzo.

[FireJack]

I thought it was going to be about people making gardens and growing their own food while increasing soil nutrition. But then he says this :
"There are some fools in here (some call them criminals), who want all Africans to grow organic food - which would basically be the same as mass murder. "

I don't understand? Using massive amounts of fertilizer in giant fields using machines etc is the only way to grow food? Feeding everyone wouldn't solve the problems of environmental degradation, it would only make it worse really.

[Fishman]

Been to Africa, worked there. So, let me get this straight, Malawi is suddenly a food powerhouse simply because of a little fertilizer? I'm glad they are feeding their own folks but I find it hard to believe that this has happened only in the context of fertilizer. All these years of famine in Africa and fertilizer was the only tool needed? I don't think so, that would have been figured out long ago. Perhaps a shift away from tobacco, better roads for transport of the fertilizer, shift in NGO work, better rain, etc., but just fertilizer? Something smells fishy and its not just the stuff they're putting around the plants.

[kublikhan]

I keep on getting this paranoid feeling that "TPTB - the powers that be" implanted you here to sway public opinion.

I think Cube has it closer to the truth.

ROFL. And you guys think Lorenzo is delusional? You guys need a serious reality check if you think the government has implanted agents in your little forum to sway your opinion.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Congo's Inga Dam can deliver enough hydroelectricity (44,000MW) to power Africa out of energy poverty and have enough excess left to produce more fertilizer than is currently consumed by the world. You can make synthetic fertilizer from renewables, from nuclear, you name it. There are enough primary energy sources out there.

He is partially right here.
Renevables can provide energy to produce nitrogen fertilizer.
Essentially problem may be reduced to production of sufficient amounts of hydrogen by water electrolysis.

Nevertheless they are of no use in terms of providing phosphorus fertilizers which are of limited availability and already running out.

This suggest that Malawi will be able to carry on with overshoot for a while more until West outbid it for phosphorus fertilizer supply.

Then Nature will take its course.
As a bonus they will devastate soil meantime so yields will be lower then organic farming could deliver.

That will ensure deeper correction.

[Concerned]

I keep on getting this paranoid feeling that "TPTB - the powers that be" implanted you here to sway public opinion.

I think Cube has it closer to the truth.

ROFL. And you guys think Lorenzo is delusional? You guys need a serious reality check if you think the government has implanted agents in your little forum to sway your opinion.

Unlikely but if I were the government I would be interested in sowing seeds of doubt in highly focused forums like this. If you google Peak oil this site comes up 3rd or 4th.

The government has alot of money (they just print it up or make a database entry these days)

You only need to see some of the logs Aaron puts up to see visits from govt agencies.