[Ayoob_Reloaded]

Here's another from our brethren at www.ar15.com

I have done much reading on all the SHTF, etc. scenarios, and I gotta tell you; Peak Oil seems quite possible given the current situation in the world. Oil is going to run out. No question about it. The concern is that this isn't our immediate problem. Before it runs out, it's going to get damn scarce. (naturally) We are seeing the ramifications of this now, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, etc, etc.. The next flaspoint may be in the Caspian region. The U.S. isn't the only oil dependant nation and I see much bigger problems in the future as everyone starts wrestling for a dwindling supply.
I'm sure we're all familiar with Peak Oil, so no history lesson. What I am wondering is this: We know that it's going to happen. Some question as to when, and how bad the effects are going to be. The world economy will obviously go down the tubes, at least for awhile. So what we're looking at here, and hopefully preparing for, is economic collapse. All the "nuclear attack" scenarios aren't immediately feasible. Over time with prolonged chaos, perhaps Russia or China takes a sucker punch at us, but I don't see that as an immediate concern.
The U.S. economy crashes, the world economy crashes. We may be left to "fend" for ourselves if it gets bad enough. You gotta wonder how the powers that be are preparing for all this, but they are not informing the public about the scenario, and for good reasons.
Sorry this is so long. I'm going to throw this out there, then I gotta go to classes all day. How seriously are you preparing for this scenario, how bad do you really think it will be, and what indicators are you watching for that tell you "It's time"?

This one goes on for five long pages.

[jato]

Ayoob_Reloaded, I was heavily involved in that one! I think I made some headway too!

Here is the link:

AR15.com

[Cash]

Wow Jato, you sure fought the good fight on that one. The level of ignorance and apathy about Peak Oil still surprises me -- such as the posters on that board who claimed it was a scam or said coal and biodiesel would save the day. The guy promoting TDP (which BTW now appears to be a solid technology) forgets that TDP is essentially a recycling process, like turning old newspapers into new cardboard -- you still need to start with the newspapers.

You might want to add the Energy Resources site at Yahoo -- <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/> -- to your list of references for current information and discussion, although right now they seem to be mired down in some useless commentary on cannibalism and air-powered vehicles.

Keep up the good work!

Cash

[Aaron]

Not pointed out that I saw in the AR15 thread is the concept of midpoint.

Good job on outlining the argument for depletion, but the understanding about midpoint should be stressed.

We need constant reminders that it's not about running out of oil, rather running out of cheap oil which makes peak oil such a compelling theory.

You might also add the U.S. Dept of Energy report this year supporting PO theory, to supplement the Banking stuff. http://www.peakoil.com/contentid-34.html

Kudos...

[mgibbons19]

that "fleeced" comment is pretty funny too. Taking your equity out of your house to buy a sport ute that depreciates 40% per year is fleeced. Increasing your christmas spending on visa with a flat income this year is fleeced.

So you believe something that turned out to be wrong. You just look stupid. You don't lose anything other than face. OTOH, you've got qeues of people willing to tell you how good, smart, etc, you are while they take your money. That's fleeced.

[mgibbons19]

After reading that whole mess I want to add a few points.

I don't like tinfoil hat people. I think they're nuts. I stay at this site because I think there is some credibility here. It comes from two places:

1) some of the more sober analysts out there, such as Simmons et al.
2) careful consideration of the role of petroleum in our economy.

Regarding number 2, it seems that many of your friends over there haven't really thought this all the way through. They seem to be missing at least some componenet. Economics, agriculture, transportation, plastics, and pharmaceuticals, and more. Also, one's own energy consumption isn't the whole story. In the short run, ecnomically it is cheaper to have a smaller house, travel more mpgs, and so on. But in the long run, the problem becomes recession food water military blah blah blah.

And finally, one little piece I don't see anywhere is urban planning. We have built the US for cars. Cities happen because they are more efficient and more pleasant than rural living. But the edge cities we have built are tremendously ineffcient. That will be the problem. And that could be where the first large gains in conservation show up. Make the cities operate more like the walkable neighborhoods good cities were meant to be 100 years ago (industrial nightmares aside) and how much do we save immediately?

[jato]

I think I have finished pouring energy on that thread. Anyone who is pro-survival join up and take over.

Aaron, I think I mentioned the DOE report. But then again, I have been in several discussions on different boards and it is hard to keep track.