[liquid]

I'll admit to being a newcomer to this idea of peak oil. I have very little in the way of knowledge about it, or the mechanisms and models through which it will work. Here are some questions I have if you dont mind:

1) If this were all going to pan out in the next 5 years, would policy changes not already be hitting the table? Would we not be seing fluctuations in the markets, and serious movement by Oil companies?

2) Do you really think the change will be such a drastic one? It doesn't seem plausible that we go from basically "unlimited" oil, to basically no oil within a matter of 5 years.

With that said, I do believe that PO will have a massive impact on our lives. Is there any way we can respond now, and be on the right end of the table when this happens? Everyone seems to say it would be a good idea to hedge the markets and so forth. If post WWI Germany taught us anything it's that money will be of no value anyhow.

[kambei]

1) If this were all going to pan out in the next 5 years, would policy changes not already be hitting the table? Would we not be seing fluctuations in the markets, and serious movement by Oil companies?

What politician is going to come out and say "The world as you know it is about to come to an end. All the prosperity you have known is going to be no more" ? I don't think he'd get much support.
It's a similar thing with the markets. Unless you have good news, they don't want to know. It's all in the far future anyway (a few years is pretty distant for the markets and politics). Plus, many people are sceptical about the whole peak oil theory.

2) Do you really think the change will be such a drastic one? It doesn't seem plausible that we go from basically "unlimited" oil, to basically no oil within a matter of 5 years.

Hmm, I don't know where you got that from. We'll still be producing about 12 billion barrels of conventional oil in 2030 from about 23 billion today. It will be a slow and gradual process of decline, not a sudden drop.

[pilferage]

Hmm, I don't know where you got that from. We'll still be producing about 12 billion barrels of conventional oil in 2030 from about 23 billion today. It will be a slow and gradual process of decline, not a sudden drop.

I'm not quite so sure about that, and I think this is the reason why so many of the doomers are so convinced our society is going to collapse.
We using various methods like steam/water/CO2 extraction to keep pace with demand and insure the field keeps producing "x" amount.
However, the downside of these methods is that once terminal decline sets in it does so with a very steep slope and sometimes the wells are left more or less unusable.
Think of it this way, we're pushing the peak back and producing more oil now, but this will result in less oil later and a much faster terminal decline...

depending on how widespread these techniques are used, and how much and often they damage fields, leaving them almost dead...
we could see a sudden drop followed by the more gradual decline.
Of course the sudden drop might cripple us to the point where there's no need to worry about the gradual decline which will occur later...

[liquid]

This is what I'm not fully understanding. I'm looking at this more from a sociological and philosophical side, because I've never been much of a science guru.

However, the whole idea that Peak Oil will create this massive "destruction" of society.... views human beings as inherently irrational beings. People may be greedy, but they are still rational. If those in charge of Oil production saw this doom coming, would they not be the first to integrate themselves into other ventures, thus sustaining the viability of their company? A friend of mine is very into this "doomday" aspect of PO, and believes that massive populations will die, and only those with money will survive. First off, in that sort of a society, money would be worthless. Secondly, wouldn't those with knowledge of this be doing something to help themselves? What have you as "people in the know" done so far to prepare?

[Guest]

People may be greedy, but they are still rational.

No offense, but are you INSANE ???

I keep hearing this idea all over the place, that humans are rational beings. Rational beings do not murder 100+ million of their own over the last century. Rational beings would utterly destroy the means of their very survival thru selfish, greedy short-sighted actions to rape the very natural resources which brought them from the stone age to the jet age in such a short period of time. Rational beings would not remain embroiled in perpetual conflict with everyone from their immediate relatives (fights with the spouse and kids) up to the international level (nuking each other).

News Flash :
Human beings are not rational.

Not you, not me, not anyone. If we were I wouldn't have felt that urge to rip your throat out when I read what you wrote above.

Humans are, for the most part, controlled by their unconscious, mostly reptilian brain. We are frightened sheep, easily controlled & led by the pathological psychopaths (Hitler, Mao, Stalin, Amin, etc. etc. etc.) who WE have chosen as our various 'leaders' (now there is a one word oxymoron) over the last 10,000 years of civilization.

If you start with this completely & totally flawed premise then how do you ever expect to reach any type of reasonable conclusion ?

If on the other hand, you start with the premise that human beings are deeply flawed, irrational beings you'll get a lot closer to the truth.

Human beings as basically rational ... Ha, I haven't had such a good laugh in years !

roll:

[Guest]

Ok, now that I have that off my chest, I'll take a shot at your questions. Don't expect me to have all the answers (remember we are all at heart, irrational )

1) If those in charge of Oil production saw this doom coming, would they not be the first to integrate themselves into other ventures, thus sustaining the viability of their company?

That's an easy one ... how many people do you know when faced with a difficult or impossible situation will simply ignore it and try to wish it away ? From my experiences on this planet, I would say most of them. If you feel you are not in this category, then congratulations, you might be one of the few with the intellectual apacity and psychological makeup to comprehend and accept the problem. I suggest doing a search on this site for INTP or INTJ, there is an discussion ongoing.

Remember Lincoln's quote about fooling all the people all the time.

2) A friend of mine is very into this "doomday" aspect of PO, and believes that massive populations will die, and only those with money will survive.

There are a number of people here who feel as your friend does. The part about money, though proves my point about the irrationality of humans perfectly, tho. What other organism would, ehen faced with the prospect of it's eventual demise, believe wholeheartedly that survival depends on whoever has the most pieces of paper ???

As for the timeline for problems, everyone has their own opinions. You read more, you'll see the gamut.

For preparations, that depends almost entirely on a person's beliefs in the timeframe and severity. Personally, I believe we have 10 to 15 years before the S hits the F, and I believe PO will be dieoff level severe. I am preparing by staying where I am, working hard at saving money to buy land and tools, and at the same time, working to learn as many skills as possible in the time allotted.

[RonBonnell]

Hmmm, I would say a reptile is rational. It would exhibit irrational behavior if it did something like jump into the water when it could not swim etc. Most animals exhibit rational behavior. We would think that whales don't when they beach themselves, but there may be a reason.

I would say rational behavior is based upon what they think the consequences are. Why is it irrational to kill 100M people? It is immoral but may not be irrational.

Its rational for democrats to continue to elect politicians who promise to take money from others and give it to them. Its greedy, immoral, and may be a detriment to society as a whole, but it may be entirely rational for those who don't want to work hard but still want to benefit from every one else's labor.

If people can come to grips that their actions can lead to the destruction of their society and the future of their children, then they can act like every other animal for self-protection.

What you are really dealing with here, is if people can think long term enough. Unlike perhaps some other animal, can they see beyond what they have lived with all of their life and envision some other consequence?

They probably can, but then it comes down to what you believe can happen, and it is much more pleasant to think that someone will figure out a solution then to think of how you are going to survive eating beetles and dodging bullets. It would not be irrational to think that someone else will figure a solution. People may come to a wrong conclusion skewed by their hope, but it is a rational conclusion.

All we can do is to offer evidence and argument. It may not even be irrational for them not to want to hear it. Because they know it doesn't do them well to hear pessimistic predictions and live in fear. People can act rationally. They need all the facts and they need to be convinced it is important to consider the facts.

[Whitecrab]

The only thing peak oil can tell you for sure is that soon oil supply will fail to meet demand, and then begin an unstoppable fall. It does not mean "no oil," nor will it likely cause an instant collapse in society or anything. More likely, we will be taken by surprise, prices for many things will rise, and there will be great economic fallout, but there will be no sudden overnight destruction of anything.

As to why people are not preparing, well there are conflicting view from "experts." The reasons government agencies and members of OPEC overstate our abilities are a bit complex, but basically almost every politician and economist listens to "experts" who paint ridiculously rosey pictures. People just take a quick look at the amount of oil in the ground, at current consumption, and lead to believe oil depeltion is going to be a problem "someday" - decades away, and outside the timescale of most politicians and business leaders. So our leaders vainly drop some cash into hydrogen, but mostly assume the market will work itself out.

[0mar]

Individuals are rational. Groups of individuals are not.

Peak oil makes no claims about society, die-offs etc etc. All peak oil does say is that after 50% of the world's recoverable oil has been pumped, the next 50% will be harder and more expensive to obtain while production itself will decline terminally. Unless there is a massive oil project (by massive, I mean several billion barrel fields in the same year) coming online post-peak, we will never produce as much as we did in the peak.

[liquid]

No offense, but are you INSANE ???

I keep hearing this idea all over the place, that humans are rational beings. Rational beings do not murder 100+ million of their own over the last century. Rational beings would utterly destroy the means of their very survival thru selfish, greedy short-sighted actions to rape the very natural resources which brought them from the stone age to the jet age in such a short period of time. Rational beings would not remain embroiled in perpetual conflict with everyone from their immediate relatives (fights with the spouse and kids) up to the international level (nuking each other).

News Flash :
Human beings are not rational.

Not you, not me, not anyone. If we were I wouldn't have felt that urge to rip your throat out when I read what you wrote above.

Humans are, for the most part, controlled by their unconscious, mostly reptilian brain. We are frightened sheep, easily controlled & led by the pathological psychopaths (Hitler, Mao, Stalin, Amin, etc. etc. etc.) who WE have chosen as our various 'leaders' (now there is a one word oxymoron) over the last 10,000 years of civilization.

If you start with this completely & totally flawed premise then how do you ever expect to reach any type of reasonable conclusion ?

If on the other hand, you start with the premise that human beings are deeply flawed, irrational beings you'll get a lot closer to the truth.

Human beings as basically rational ... Ha, I haven't had such a good laugh in years !

Nothing like a nice indignant response.

If we weren't raitional, the modern economic and political systems would not work. Like it or not, human beings are for the most part rational. We may make irrational decisions.... however overall we are rational beings. It's absurd to bring people such as Hitler into this conversation. He wasn't as much irrational as absolutely insane. People were led under men like him due to misinformation and fear..... which is a tactic that works in most situations when people don't have all the information they need. I will agree with you the human beings have bouts of irrationality. However, I'm looking at this on a larger scale, and on an individual basis. If people weren't rational, society wouldn't work. Also, just so you know, your definition of a rational response, may not be the same as someone else's.

[liquid]

That's an easy one ... how many people do you know when faced with a difficult or impossible situation will simply ignore it and try to wish it away ? From my experiences on this planet, I would say most of them. If you feel you are not in this category, then congratulations, you might be one of the few with the intellectual apacity and psychological makeup to comprehend and accept the problem. I suggest doing a search on this site for INTP or INTJ, there is an discussion ongoing.

I agree with you that most individuals run from problems that require difficult decisions. However, there are those men that thrive on decisions that are difficult and controversial. For many, money comes before popularity and difficulty. Where are they with this information?

[Guest]

If you can't comprehend this most basic of facts (the irrationality of humans in general), then we literally have nothing to discuss ... we dont have any common frame of reference.

And I find it enormously ironic that all of you here are so strenuously defending the rationality of humans on a message board devoted to discussing an irrational phenomenom (PO) created purely as a result of the irrational actions of irrational humans.

That's not rational.

Neither are any of you.

[Guest]

If you can't comprehend this most basic of facts (the irrationality of humans in general), then we literally have nothing to discuss ... we dont have any common frame of reference.

And I find it enormously ironic that all of you here are so strenuously defending the rationality of humans on a message board devoted to discussing an irrational phenomenom (PO) created purely as a result of the irrational actions of irrational humans.

That's not rational.

Neither are any of you.

Maybe you need to open up a book on the history of western thought. Our ENTIRE society rests on the premise that we are rational beings. If you are unable to grasp this, and you are in the minority in your view... perhaps you are the one who should look at little closer.

There is no irony here. How is PO irrational? I think perhaps you should look up exactly what irrational means

[TWilliam]

Hmmm...

Well, Merriam-Webster's Dictionary of Law defines the adjective "rational" thusly:

1 : having reason or understanding
2 : relating to, based on, or guided by reason, principle, fairness, logic, a legitimate state interest, or a consideration of fact

Considering my personal research over the years, coupled with my direct experience of some thousands of people, I would have to say that "rational" does NOT describe the vast majority of humans.

Human beings by and large are motivated primarily by their emotions. Rarely do principle, fairness, logic, and especially facts have much bearing on the choices I see people making on a regular basis. Most don't even want to consider any information that disturbs their comfort, let alone take any time to actually explore it's accuracy or implications.

Hell, just look at the outcome of the recent US elections. Rational my A$$...