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Peak oil debate

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Unread postby MarkL » Thu 24 Mar 2005, 23:55:08

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BBC Online article - "Peak oil enters mainstream debate

Unread postby spot5050 » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 03:18:44

This is the first article I've ever see on BBC News Online which directly addresses PO....

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4077802.stm
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Unread postby savethehumans » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 05:04:33

Yeah, but that 2013 PO date they're hawking is just going to make the public yawn and say, "Oh, we've got a few years. Why worry now?" :(
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Unread postby bart » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 07:43:42

The BBC piece is by Adam Porter who has been writing on PO and energy for some time. Way to go, Adam!
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Unread postby AdzP » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 11:19:04

Cheers mi dear. You saw that before I did!

all the best
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Unread postby GL » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 11:37:31

I remember seing a number of PO articles from the BBC besides this new one. Links:

Is the world's oil running out fast?

When the last oil well runs dry

Hopefully they will explore the subject in depth. BBC has a lot of respect all over the world.
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Unread postby JoeW » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 12:15:44

savethehumans wrote:Yeah, but that 2013 PO date they're hawking is just going to make the public yawn and say, "Oh, we've got a few years. Why worry now?" :(

I don't know about that. Eight years is only a long time if you are a child. I think most adults in industrialized countries think about the next decade to come.
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English name - French word!!

Unread postby Dvanharn » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 12:53:29

Deborah White - naive

Deborah White, senior energy analyst at Societe Generale in Paris, says: "Controlling suburban blight is one way to slow oil consumption until we are a society no longer dependent on oil."


This will make our modern societies "no longer dependent on oil"?????

This type of idiotic statement removes all credibility for Ms. White. How the hell did she ever become a "senior energy analyst"?

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Re: English name - French word!!

Unread postby spot5050 » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 13:30:01

Dvanharn wrote:Deborah White - naive

Deborah White, senior energy analyst at Societe Generale in Paris, says: "Controlling suburban blight is one way to slow oil consumption until we are a society no longer dependent on oil."


This will make our modern societies "no longer dependent on oil"?????

This type of idiotic statement removes all credibility for Ms. White. How the hell did she ever become a "senior energy analyst"?

Dave


It is strange isn't it.

I guess most people here are amateur Peak-oilers - we have jobs outside of the energy industry. But most people here have grasped at least the basics of economics. Yet someone like Ms. White who must be intelligent given her position, who probably spends all day every day thinking about energy, just doesn't seem to mind that everything she touches is oil. It's quite bizarre. How can she be an 'energy analyst' and yet make such a crass statement? It's odd. Really really odd. But she's not the only one. There's loads of them! - so-called analysts who don't seem to know anything.

I can understand when organisations like OPEC deny PO, or even to some extent when governments deny PO, but for an independant analyst whose job it is to be on the ball, to not even seem to understand the issues, is unforgivable. I could have respect for someone like that if they said "I understand PO but disagree with it because of X, Y and Z." but she obviously just doesn't see why there's a problem. Weird.

Maybe she's only a part-time energy analyst - the first Tuesday morning of every month. I wonder what she does the rest of the time.
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Unread postby NEOPO » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 14:19:26

Miss White refers to PO as an "idea" :shock:

She suggests that we should stop suburban sprawl.
Hey wait a minute - isnt that the new american dream? 8)

Heres a recent article on U.S. homes sales:

NAR article

Here is an excerpt from the article:

"Existing-home sales are forecast to rise 1.6 percent to a total of 6.89 million this year from a record 6.78 million in 2004, while new-home sales are seen to grow by 3.2 percent to 1.24 million in 2005. At the same time, housing starts are projected to increase 3.4 percent to just over 2.02 million units, the highest level since 1973. "
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Unread postby Mango » Thu 21 Jul 2005, 05:00:14

savethehumans wrote:Yeah, but that 2013 PO date they're hawking is just going to make the public yawn and say, "Oh, we've got a few years. Why worry now?" :(


I think anyone that yawns at this number on something of such magnitude has no idea of the implications of what Peak Oil means.

As of two days ago I was on that list of the uninformed. We're preaching to the choir in here, we need to spread the word out there as much as we can (and try not to sound like nutjobs doing it :)

From what I've read throughout many articles over the internet, 2013 is the projected peak for ALL oils, not just crude. Please correct me if I'm wrong in this analysis.
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Unread postby Doly » Thu 21 Jul 2005, 07:29:57

Mango wrote:From what I've read throughout many articles over the internet, 2013 is the projected peak for ALL oils, not just crude. Please correct me if I'm wrong in this analysis.


If you mean here "conventional and unconventional oil", that's possibly correct. Of course, different people have different dates on peak oil.
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Unread postby Aaron » Thu 21 Jul 2005, 08:10:32

AdzP wrote:Cheers mi dear. You saw that before I did!

all the best
adam


Love to hear some more of your original thoughts on this.

Everybody say Hi, to the author of the piece in question.

:)
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Help with my Peak Oil debate

Unread postby Stovepipe » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 19:18:00

I think Peak Oil is real, not some half baked conspiracy theory. This guy seems to think I am wrong. He came up with these arguments and graphs which I responded to in the following posts, what else should I add. I am no expert on this stuff, so your help would be appreciated, those of you that have studied the issue more than myself.

This is in the off topic section of a gaming forum read by kids scatterred across Europe and America. You can see that this topic is twenty pages long and many months old. How about a little wisdom to help me refute their latest points, because I can do it, but probably not as succinctly as you folks.

Please post your response here or register and post it over there.

Thanks for your help.


http://invisionfree.com/forums/Jack_the ... &p=1655149

http://invisionfree.com/forums/Jack_the ... &p=1655160
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Re: Help with my Peak Oil debate

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 19:36:45

The behaviour of the oil companies themselves!

1. They are merging and buying each other out, this does not increase the total amount of reserves, but the books of the result look bigger.

2. Shell downsizing it's reserves 4 times, it got hammered in the stock market and the director had to resign, that seems like an option of last resort.

3. Chevron, www.willyoujoinus.com

4. BP now stands for Beyond Petroleum

5. Peaking of backdated reserves in 1960s.

6. Saudi has repeatedly claimed it will increase production but very little new has been seen over the last year.
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Re: Help with my Peak Oil debate

Unread postby Golgo13 » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 20:47:16

rogerhb wrote:The behaviour of the oil companies themselves!


Yep.

Mr. Savinar did a pretty good job of pointing this out in his book:

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Help with my Peak Oil debate

Unread postby some_guy282 » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 22:41:03

Bartlett lecture

You should watch that video yourself if you havn't yet. See if you can get this other guy to watch it too. If that doesn't shut him up, nothing will.
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche

Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine

History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
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Re: Help with my Peak Oil debate

Unread postby Stovepipe » Fri 09 Sep 2005, 18:23:02

Thank You for your responses!
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Re: Help with my Peak Oil debate

Unread postby Stovepipe » Fri 09 Sep 2005, 18:32:48

some_guy282 wrote:Bartlett lecture

You should watch that video yourself if you havn't yet. See if you can get this other guy to watch it too. If that doesn't shut him up, nothing will.


the link doesn't work for me.
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Re: Help with my Peak Oil debate

Unread postby LadyRuby » Fri 09 Sep 2005, 18:39:10

Here's another response to them. Most of the oil companies are producing less oil this year so far than they did at the same time last year. Through the 2nd quarter of this year (pre-Katrina, obviously), here's how much less they are producing so far this year:

Chevron: -6%
Shell: -5.6%
Total Oil: - 3.9%
ConocoPhillips: - 0.5%
Exxon: -4.0%

This while oil prices in the same time period have increased by 40% or so. Unless people think they are all in collusion (no way, too many involved), then clearly there's a problem since these big guys get oil from all over the world.

By the way, anyone can find this information for themselves on the companies websites, look under news releases, and find the quarterly performance reports.
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