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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

What Peak Oil Could Look Like

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 24 Sep 2024, 06:55:46

theluckycountry wrote:Image

A factory closing shop and moving to china is not a sign of peak oil.
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby peakoilchart » Tue 24 Sep 2024, 18:29:57

I made a video, not very well done, but I think it's useful https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ETjBWBhUTs
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 24 Sep 2024, 21:12:52

theluckycountry wrote:America passed it's peak oil date with history in 1970 and they got a little taste of what was to come. You can't escape the consequences of PeakOil

Bad example. Of course America escaped the consequences of 1970 peak oil....they went and became the world's largest producer of oil and gas all over again, created another US peak, etc etc.

It is better to be American exceptional than "lucky". The rest of the world is sorry on your behalf that the Kiwis got all the good stuff and you were left with...you know...you and your neighbors.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 24 Sep 2024, 21:16:13

mousepad wrote:A factory closing shop and moving to china is not a sign of peak oil.

You know it. I know it. Most everyone here knows it. But let one neoNazi into the mix and....presto...its like Ruppert-groupies were reinvented except even more ignorant than last time.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 04:46:44

mousepad wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:Image

A factory closing shop and moving to china is not a sign of peak oil.


That was back in the 1970's, the USA's own date with peakOil. There was no China factories back then.
You're next comment?
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 05:05:02

99 College Campuses Closed Over the Past Year - Is Yours Next? https://www.zerohedge.com/political/99- ... yours-next

Parasitic jobs, parasitic activity. The world doesn't need more professors, more African studies majors. Going forward it will need Farmhands and basic metal workers, jobs like that. Without the student loans (education bubble) a lot of the egregious waste wouldn't have happened in the first place, but that's all Sparta can do now, print money and flush it out into society where it forms huge bubbles. As mad as it seems it allows for all manner of taxing by government and milking by wall street and this allows the taxes to be gathered and the interest to be paid on the $35 TRILLION in debt. Without those interest repayments the system collapses, Obviously.

It's not just tax dollars either, that would never cover it. But when they create things like the Inflation reduction act and the infrastructure 'Bills' that allows them to redirect the money created for that to the interest repayments. That's why fuckall infrastructure was ever built under the act. Follow the money.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 07:52:50

theluckycountry wrote:That was back in the 1970's, the USA's own date with peakOil. There was no China factories back then.
You're next comment?


Here's the worldwide per capita energy consumption
https://www.statista.com/statistics/130 ... 0footprint.

Although not a perfect barometer of standard of living, it's much better than peakoil. I'm looking forward to peak-energy-per-capita. That's hopefully more interesting than peak-oil. Peak-oil I subscribed to in 2005. But by 2008 I realized what a let-down it is.
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 16:29:18

theluckycountry wrote:
mousepad wrote:A factory closing shop and moving to china is not a sign of peak oil.

That was back in the 1970's, the USA's own date with peakOil. There was no China factories back then.
You're next comment?

Whatever it is, it'll most likely have some thought behind it.

But just as proof...you missed US peak oil by half a century...you can see why you need to brush up on the thinking thing.

US produces more oil than any country. Ever.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 16:39:12

mousepad wrote:Here's the worldwide per capita energy consumption
https://www.statista.com/statistics/130 ... 0footprint.
Although not a perfect barometer of standard of living, it's much better than peakoil.

What is your take on increased efficiencies offsetting the need for ever increasing per capita growth? It would seem like per capita growth would outrun increased efficiencies if only because developing countries really REALLY want to waste energy like the First Worlders...just because. Lucky being a prime example, gotta have gas guzzlers and ICE machines because he sure can't pretend his own country has come up with much besides Crocodile Dundee. The increased efficiencies the First Worlders are creating, when deployed earlier than otherwise in the life cycle of a developing country, would seem to be able to bring down per capita use quicker because they don't need to reinvent the wheel. Or EV.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 19:51:48

mousepad wrote:
Here's the worldwide per capita energy consumption
https://www.statista.com/statistics/130 ... 0footprint.

Although not a perfect barometer of standard of living, it's much better than peakoil. I'm looking forward to peak-energy-per-capita. That's hopefully more interesting than peak-oil. Peak-oil I subscribed to in 2005. But by 2008 I realized what a let-down it is.


Well I use that site, though that page is pay-walled to me and only part loads. I'd like to know what's actually the breakdown, like China for example uses mountains of electricity for industry, is that all ascribed to "per capita?" Obviously, but the average Chinese doesn't benefit from it aside from rapid transit probably. Then there is the massive global consumption from bitcoin, It's all per capita I guess though a lot of it doesn't go to improving our lives here in our homes.

Consider this Mousepad
Whilst global energy growth is growing from developing economies, the trend for many high-income nations is a notable decline. As we see in exemplar trends from the UK and US, the growth we are currently seeing in transitioning economies ended for many high-income nations by over the 1970s and 80s. Both the US and UK peaked in terms of per capita energy consumption in the 1970s
https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/mannman ... onsumption

So other developing nations, China, India, with their billions have taken over. Good for them I suppose.

And this, from the iea

The mysterious case of disappearing electricity demand

14 February 2019 Electricity demand has increased by around 70% since 2000, and in 2017, global electricity demand increased by a further 3%. This increase was more than any other major fuel, pushing total demand to 22 200 terawatt-hours (TWh). Electricity now accounts for 19% of total final consumption, compared to just over 15% in 2000.

Yet while global demand growth has been strong, there are major disparities across regions. In particular, in recent years electricity demand in advanced economies has begun to flatten or in some cases decline – in fact electricity demand fell in 18 out of 30 IEA member countries over the period 2010-2017. Several factors can account for this slowing of growth, but the key reason is energy efficiency.

Over 40% of the slowdown in electricity demand was attributable to energy efficiency in industry, largely a result of strict, broadly applied, minimum energy performance standards for electric motors. In residential buildings, total energy use by certain classes of appliances has already peaked. For example, energy use for refrigerators (98% of which are covered by performance standards) is well below the high point reached in 2009, and energy use for lighting has also declined. In the absence of energy efficiency improvements, electricity demand in advanced economies would have grown at 1.6% per year since 2010, instead of 0.3%.
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-my ... ity-demand

An interesting read, though it's very country dependent. When I think of per capita I think of people in homes, our standards of living. Here with our immense rooftop solar build-out, running A/C units all day in Summer and Winter is becoming the norm. It's free energy once the panels and inverter are in and we even get paid for any excess we push back into the grid. But if you don't have it and you are on a lower income you'll only run those A/C split systems on the hottest days. So I will agree that energy consumption per capita has risen across the world, but I don't believe that is the case for the average homeowner in Western nations. Certainly not in Europe and the UK for some time now.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 19:54:50

AdamB wrote:Image
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 20:03:00

That IEA article I quoted above finishes with this BTW.

Ultimately, despite moderate growth in electricity demand, fuel-switching to electricity and energy efficiency improvements in the use of other fuels mean the share of electricity in final consumption is projected to increase to 27% in advanced economies by 2040, up from 22% today.

As we see, their analysis is jaded by the Hopium we'll all be tooling around in EV by 2040. Granted it's a 2019 work, PeakEv wasn't even on the radar then even though many of us knew it's was just a BS bubble. Making cars using twice the amount of fossil fuels so we can get off fossil fuels.



Image
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 21:51:54

theluckycountry wrote: Making cars using twice the amount of fossil fuels so we can get off fossil fuels.

My EV doesn't USE any fossil fuels. Unless you count putting tires on the thing? You do know what an EV runs on, right? You aren't really trying to look even more ignorant than normal as some sort of gag?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 27 Sep 2024, 03:52:38

AdamB wrote: Image
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 27 Sep 2024, 13:05:10

theluckycountry wrote:
AdamB wrote: Image

As I said before...when you don't have the IQ points to even debate your own points...there are always memes to hope no one notices the lack of response.

I'm sure your ditch digging or running a dozer taught you something across your lifetime of utilizing zero formal education, but dear god it didn't provide you with anything in the way of abstract or critical thinking either did it?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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