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THE Deluge Thread (merged)

Re: THE Deluge Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 22 Sep 2023, 19:22:30

It's pretty undeniable that the climate is changing, the only point debated is whether it's natural or not. If you're in the camp that says it natural then you can comfort yourself with the idea that it could revert to the good ol times any day soon. The glaciers will come back, we'll get milder summers. If you're in the other camp you're probably assuming disaster on a massive scale any day now. But there is a middle ground pointed out by John Micheal Greer on his blog. He's the old arch druid and got his chops on peakoil.

Riding the Climate Toboggan
https://www.ecosophia.net/riding-the-climate-toboggan/

Every year or two on this blog I post an update on the global climate. Now and then I wonder if this is a futile effort. Outside the four notional walls of this one little blog on the fringe, and a few other equally marginal venues, the rest of the world seems to be caught up in a debate about the climate that permits two and only two viewpoints. On the one side you have the people who insist that global climate change is an apocalyptic horror that will surely kill us all unless we kowtow to an increasingly baroque and intrusive set of rules that they themselves aren’t willing to follow. On the other side you have the people who insist that global climate change isn’t happening at all. They’re both wrong, but that hardly matters: with every failed prediction—and both sides have made a good many of these—the shrieking from the true believers just gets louder, drowning out the few voices of moderation in between.

Then the moment passes, and perspective returns. One of the great lessons of history is that there really are limits to how long you can talk people into disbelieving the evidence of their own senses. To cite only one example, all those supposedly authoritative claims that the vaccines would keep you from catching or transmitting the Covid virus didn’t keep people from noticing that the vaccines did neither of these things, which is one of several reasons why attempts to push yet another round of Covid vaccines on the public are doing so poorly. In the same way, the rhetoric on both sides of the climate change issue is losing its appeal as people notice that the climate really is changing, but the predicted apocalypse keeps on pulling a no-show.

It’s crucial to remember that the future of global climate does not depend on what people say. (You’d think that the vast amounts of hot air vented by all sides in the dispute would have some effect on the climate, but apparently not.) The future of global climate also doesn’t depend on what the scientific consensus says it is; if the history of science teaches anything, it’s that when there’s a scientific consensus—which is by no means that common—it’s wrong at least as often as it’s right. The future of global climate depends not on any of these things, but on an immensely complex network of feedback loops and planetary processes that are very poorly understood at present, and may be wholly beyond our ability to measure or calculate. There’s a useful source of data that can help us understand where the global climate might be headed, but—well, we’ll talk about that a little later in this post....
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Deluge Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tuike » Sun 05 May 2024, 05:26:10

Southern Brazil has been hit by the worst floods in more than 80 years. At least 39 people have died -ap
The flooding statewide has surpassed that seen during a historic 1941 deluge, according to the Brazilian Geological Service. In some cities, water levels were at their highest since records began nearly 150 years ago, the agency said. On Thursday, a dam at a hydroelectric plant between the cities of Bento Goncalves and Cotipora partially collapsed and entire cities in the Taquari River valley, like Lajeado and Estrela, were completely overtaken by water.
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Re: THE Deluge Thread (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 05 May 2024, 12:14:55

Was there a dàmn collapse down there 3 or 4 years ago?
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Re: THE Deluge Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 05 May 2024, 14:21:50

No dam collapses around here but Toledo, Ohio set a new rainfall total for April breaking all previous records.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE Deluge Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 05 May 2024, 16:45:11

Hundreds of years ago floods were not such an issue. There were no dams to burst and most people weren't stupid enough to live on flood plains. So much of the 20th century experiment converting fossil fuels into infrastructure is being exposed as malinvestment now. Concrete, with an average 80 year lifespan. Roads, bridges, dams, hi rise buildings.

1# Don't live downstream of a dam
2# Don't live on a floodplain
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Deluge Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tuike » Sat 14 Sep 2024, 05:12:53

Central Europe braced for worst flooding in years -bbc
Austria experienced its hottest August since records began, according to the Geosphere Austria federal institute. Now it is warning of 10-20cm of rainfall in many regions in a matter of days. In some places, well over 20cm is possible, especially in the mountains of Upper and Lower Austria and in northern Upper Styria. Austrian storm warning centre UWZ says that in some areas, previous records for the entire month of September will be "surpassed in just a few days". Manuel Kelemen, a forecaster for Puls24 TV, says from a meterological point of view, "what we're experiencing is extraordinary, if not unprecedented".

Note, usually rain is measured in mm, not cm. These heavy rain forecasts are often dud, at least where I live, but can't rely on extreme weather forecasts to be dud all the time.
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Re: THE Deluge Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tuike » Sun 15 Sep 2024, 15:40:39

Central Europe in grips of worst flooding in decades | DW News -youtube
Not a dud. There's a decent mess going on in Europe because of excess water causing damage.
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Re: THE Deluge Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 15 Sep 2024, 17:03:36

Death toll rises as torrential rain and flooding force mass evacuations across Central Europe
Another night of torrential rains pounding Central Europe has forced mass evacuations as the death toll rises. Several Central European nations have already been hit by severe flooding, including Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania, while Slovakia and Hungary might come next as a result of a low pressure system from northern Italy dumping record rainfall in the region since Thursday.

The weather change arrived following a hot start to September in the region. Scientists have documented Earth's hottest summer, breaking a record set just a year ago.
https://www.9news.com.au/world/europe-f ... e754ef6721

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The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Deluge Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tuike » Wed 30 Oct 2024, 14:06:16

Spanish floods kill 72 as year of rain falls in a day in Valencia -reuters
Meteorologists said a year's rain had fallen in eight hours in parts of Valencia on Tuesday, causing pile-ups on highways and submerging farmland in a region that produces two-thirds of the citrus fruit grown in Spain, a leading global exporter. Residents in the worst-hit places described seeing people clambering onto the roofs of their cars as a churning tide of brown water gushed through the streets, uprooting trees and dragging away chunks of masonry from buildings. Footage shot by emergency services from a helicopter showed bridges that had collapsed and cars and trucks piled on top of each other on highways between flooded fields outside the city of Valencia.

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Re: THE Deluge Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 09 Nov 2024, 17:50:38

Spain’s military prepares morgues for 400 bodies in flood-hit Valencia. That's a lot!
And
Spain's flood-hit Valencia seeks €31.4B in recovery aid

That's big bucks, must be a real mess.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/spain-s ... ia/3383980
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/spains- ... id/3384192
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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