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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Feb 2023, 17:50:37

vtsnowedin wrote:Here is a question for the market experts here. At the state of the union Biden railed about Exxon's profits last year and it's and other companies stock buy back programs and proposed the extra tax on Buy backs be raised by a factor of four.
But here is the rub. Those that sell their Exxon shares back to Exxon have to pay capital gains tax on the net profit of the sale. For example suppose a big investor sold back 100,000 shares at the current $118/ share for $11,800,000. Part of that would be the original purchase and the rest gain (or loss) but let's assume the average re seller has made a 100% gain and doubled his money so $59,000,000 in gain. (I'm doing better then that at the moment but just hit it when it was down.) So a big investor is in the top Capital gains tax bracket of 20% so will pay $1.18 million in CGT.
Exxon is proposing to buy back 15 billion worth of stock this year so using the same assumptions as average the buy back will generate 150 million from the current 1% extra tax plus the sellers will pay 1.5 Billion in CGT.
I think that is a pretty "fair share" right there.
Edited to correct a misplaced decimal point.

1). Unlike a clear skill, like say, chess, I'm not sure about stock market "experts". Sure, there are PLENTY of people on the internet who will CLAIM expertise in almost anything, but likely the serious experts will be more like Warren Buffett and not be bragging much, if at all, in my opinion. (Of course, those wanting to sell their "expertise" will be the opposite, but I always ask: "If they're so damn good, WHY do they need to sell their expertise? Why not just grow massively rich with their gains?" (I have lots of experience and some overall moderate success, largely from being damn persistent, so I'll opine on buybacks and buyback taxes below, though I claim to be no "stock market expert" outside the area of stock options.)

2). What's the question? Unless I'm missing something, I didn't see a clear question in your post. I saw an opinion on a proposed additional tax.

3). I'll opine that stock buybacks, overall, aren't that big a deal, except maybe management trying to feather their own nest by growing the stock price. A great company should be able to either return money to shareholders in dividends over time, or find investments worthy of making with their excess cash, vs. buying stock to reduce the number of shares. I share that opinion, generally, with various great investors, including Warren Buffett.

4). I think that wealthy investors already pay PLENTY of taxes over time, given the reality of the death tax, and the proportion of total US federal income taxes the top 10 percent and the top 1 percent pay, and how little the bottom 50% pay in federal income taxes. But obviously, the left end of the political spectrum will likely tend to disagree with that opinion, tending to love to TAX profits, even as they tend to claim profits are evil.

Disclosure: I tend to be mostly right wing on financial issues and more left wing on social issues and thus consider myself a political moderate, and I vote by issue, not by party.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 11 Feb 2023, 20:57:49

2). What's the question? Unless I'm missing something, I didn't see a clear question in your post. I saw an opinion on a proposed additional tax.

My question was what is your view of Biden's proposal.
3). I'll opine that stock buybacks, overall, aren't that big a deal, except maybe management trying to feather their own nest by growing the stock price. A great company should be able to either return money to shareholders in dividends over time, or find investments worthy of making with their excess cash, vs. buying stock to reduce the number of shares. I share that opinion, generally, with various great investors, including Warren Buffett.

Would not raising the stock price benefit all the stock holders?
Also if market conditions are such that investment opportunities are limited it may be the best choice to just return the investors money to the stock holders and let them seek other opportunities while waiting for market conditions including regulation levels to improve.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 11 Feb 2023, 21:28:51

Morgan Stanley says the economy is going into a recession and the stock market is on the verge of crashing again

stock-market-crash-indicator-earnings-recession-sp500-forecast-morgan-stanley-2023

It's hard for me to believe that we're going into a recession and the market is about to crash just days after hearing President Biden boasting in his State of the Union speech that we're not going into a recession because his economy is so strong......but on the other hand I have to admit based on his past record that there is a slim possibility that Joe Biden might be wrong again.

It is possible that Joe Biden was just lying about the economy being so strong and lying when he claimed the US economy won't go into recession. After all, Joe Biden is a sleazy politician with a long history of lying. But then, Morgan Stanley is a sleazy stock broker, with an equally long history of lying....

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Is Joe Biden right or is Morgan Stanley right about the economy? Will there be a recession or not?.....And a will that recession cause another Stock Market Crash?????

The good news is that one way or another, we'll get to see who was right over the rest of 2023. Personally, I suspect Morgan Stanley is right and Joe Biden is wrong.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Feb 2023, 18:15:54

Plantagenet wrote:
The good news is that one way or another, we'll get to see who was right over the rest of 2023. Personally, I suspect Morgan Stanley is right and Joe Biden is wrong.

Cheers!

Biden has yet to admit that his policies are the problem and has not reversed or changed any of them. So the damage continues and will only get worse in the next two years unless the Republican house can rein him in a bit. So I'm betting on recession and high inflation going forward.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 12 Feb 2023, 22:48:53

vtsnowedin wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
The good news is that one way or another, we'll get to see who was right over the rest of 2023. Personally, I suspect Morgan Stanley is right and Joe Biden is wrong.

Cheers!

Biden has yet to admit that his policies are the problem and has not reversed or changed any of them.


You really have that big of an urge for wild federal deficits, a lower stock market, more unemployment? Why would he want to take away the things that stopped The Greatest Recession Since The Great Depression?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Feb 2023, 03:09:54

vtsnowedin wrote:My question was what is your view of Biden's proposal.

OK. so I'm very much "meh" on that. As I mentioned, I think the wealthy already pay PLENTY in income taxes. Punishing stock buybacks adds to that, but since I'm not impressed with stock buybacks generally (preferring more dividends or good investments in growing the company), not a big deal to me either way.
vtsnowedin wrote:Would not raising the stock price benefit all the stock holders?
Also if market conditions are such that investment opportunities are limited it may be the best choice to just return the investors money to the stock holders and let them seek other opportunities while waiting for market conditions including regulation levels to improve.

Yes, raising the stock price (more than the market would have without a stock buyback) is a benefit for the stockholders, no doubt.

BUT, to me, the question (same for Buffett), is if that benefit is more than a long term wise spending on good investments in the company business (which should also grow the value of the stock in the long run, and maybe more than the buybacks). Obviously, one can't know ahead of time for any given stock. Like the market, it's all probabilities until the time in question has elapsed and the results can be seen re the stock price.

Re just returning the money to shareholders, that's the Buffett prescription if management doesn't have (what it deems for good reasons) to be better ideas for investing the money. Special dividends or a higher ongoing dividend rate might be appropriate, depending on the circumstances. Buffett has admitted, for example, that if he (or his successors) couldn't outperform the S&P 500, including dividends, over the long run, there's really no justification for expecting people to invest in BRK. You won't hear many investment managers being so frank about a standard for firing themselves.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 26 Apr 2023, 18:49:11

Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited (BDWBY) shares are taking a WOKE dive at the moment, I wonder how many billion it's lost since it's promotion of transgender? It has a $38B market cap at the moment, the share price down roughly 10%

Tesla is another matter. Here is another corporation that isn't a fan of paying dividends but everyone piles in because of the Muck meme, but that's wearing thin no with the share price down more than 50% from a year ago. Looks like the recent 5~1 stock split didn't help mask the collapse of this once iconic company. It's a bit like Harley Davidson I think, lot like it actually.

Harley sells overpriced garbage and the only reason they are still in business is because of a meme, "Harley's are cool Bro" "A Harley is a real bike, the best, made in the good ol USA" Harley stopped R&D about 70 years ago, they make the same tired old engines in Milwaukee, the same old tubular frames and then kit them out with cheap accessories from China.
However, Harley-Davidson also has factories in Brazil, India, and Thailand


Tesla is outdated now, outclassed by the others but it simply doesn't have the capital to retool and do a major overhaul as the "Real" auto makers can. A 50% haircut on your Tesla portfolio. Dear oh Dear, when will people learn that the stock market is just a big casino.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 26 Apr 2023, 19:06:34

theluckycountry wrote: Dear oh Dear, when will people learn that the stock market is just a big casino.


Hard lesson to learn considering how well equity markets have outpaced my gold position.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 30 Apr 2023, 20:15:11

vtsnowedin wrote:Biden has yet to admit that his policies are the problem ..... So I'm betting on recession and high inflation going forward.


Its looking like you are right, vtsnowy...wherever you are.

So far we've had 70 major corporate bankruptcies in the USA through April......thats the third most in any year in the last 20 years....and we are only through April.

If we keep going at this rate the number of bankruptcies in 2023 will far exceed the record number seen back in 2009 during the great recession.

there-are-70-major-bankruptcies-just-4-months-y

Curiously, there seems to be little concern in the Biden administration or in the media over the fact that we are on pace to see a record number of bankruptcies in the USA this year, even though the high number of bankruptcies signals the US economy is collapsing right now at a pace even worse then the GREAT RECESSION of 2008-9.

If the USA economy continues down this track and collapses even more this year then it did back during the great recession then what should we call this recession?

Are we starting into the GREATER THEN THE GREAT RECESSION? Or should we call it the BIDEN RECESSION? Or maybe the SECOND GREAT DEPRESSION? 8) :) :roll:

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should we call the upcoming recession the BIDEN RECESSION? Or given the total incompetence exhibited by the Biden administration so far, maybe it will turn into the SECOND GREAT DEPRESSION?

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 01 May 2023, 09:07:39

Plantagenet wrote:Curiously, there seems to be little concern in the Biden administration or in the media over the fact that we are on pace to see a record number of bankruptcies in the USA this year, even though the high number of bankruptcies signals the US economy is collapsing right now at a pace even worse then the GREAT RECESSION of 2008-9.


How well are they stacking up against The Greatest Recession Since The Great Depression caused by the last administrations mismanagement? It was a hum dinger compared to the one the Republican administration before that handed off to Obama.

Plantagenet wrote:Are we starting into the GREATER THEN THE GREAT RECESSION? Or should we call it the BIDEN RECESSION? Or maybe the SECOND GREAT DEPRESSION? 8) :) :roll:


How about we wait until it surpasses The Greatest Recession Since The Great Depression first and see? I mean, if it isn't any worse than what Trump foisted off on the American people, we can start with the idea that traitors are far worse for the US economy than even Sleepy folks.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 02 May 2023, 22:01:50

AdamB wrote:
theluckycountry wrote: Dear oh Dear, when will people learn that the stock market is just a big casino.


Hard lesson to learn considering how well equity markets have outpaced my gold position.

If he can't tell short term gambling (randomness is obvious) from long term investing (roughly 10 percent nominal total returns in the S&P 500 is MIGHTY impressive, since the late 20's), he's hopeless.

Considering his many random statements over time on this site on many subjects, a status of hopeless isn't that surprising, IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 02 May 2023, 22:12:32

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Considering his many random statements over time on this site on many subjects, a status of hopeless isn't that surprising, IMO.


We can't be too hard on Lucky. The sheer magnitude of the disadvantages he faces because of where he is, the overlords he kowtows to, his faith based system of belief in PMs and whatnot, hopelessness could just be a natural effect of it all piling up with no way out of the trap he's in.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 02 May 2023, 22:27:04

vtsnowedin wrote:
Back to the credit card balances: Apparently a lot of people are in denial about inflation exceeding their wage growth and have kept spending beyond their means by building those card balances. That will come to a head with a year or so and that will put a huge break on the economy when the minimum payments teach each card holder that same old lesson. Gonna be a tough year for them and I'm glad I and all my close family are not running balances.

This reminds me of what it felt like to me during the mid-2000's, heading for the great recession. I was getting pissed off, seeing so many around me buying $800,000 houses, driving big dollar luxury cars, massive foreign travel, luxury clothes, furniture, dining, and on and on.

And here I was still living the simple life, being frugal and preparing to retire in my 40's while I still had my health, but doing things like living in a cheap run down apartment on the poor side of town to allow me to save, literally, over 50 percent of my gross salary a year.

There were times when I'd wonder what the point was if ANY amount of financial foolishness and lack of prudence produced great results.

Of course, the great recession was a huge whack on the side of the head for the financially foolish (though too many were bailed out of problems of their own making).

The sad thing to me is that the lessons learned only lasted a couple years or so, and then it was "everybody back into the pool" for the masses, and here we are AGAIN (financial stresses on the system), even after the big reminder Covid SHOULD have given people that nasty surprises DO happen and can be without rhyme, reason, or warning.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 03 May 2023, 17:52:52

Human nature, people follow each other in Herds, and addictive TV watching only amplifies this. When everyone is saying it's ok to go into debt, they go into debt. It takes a rare type of personality to avoid the peer pressure of society.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 03 May 2023, 19:16:29

theluckycountry wrote:Human nature, people follow each other in Herds, and addictive TV watching only amplifies this.


You understand that you can't be FORCED to watch TV by your benign Chinese overlords right? You mentioned you pretend to ride a motorcycle on occasion, get out and do that. After you ask permission from the local ChiCom apparatchik of course, wouldn't want a bootlicker to get in trouble.

theluckycountry wrote:It takes a rare type of personality to avoid the peer pressure of society.


Indeed. So just go all wild and go to the powder room without asking the ChiCom household apparatchik for permission, you can do it! Be brave!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Tuike » Tue 03 Oct 2023, 12:35:17

Interest rates on government bonds are rising. Is there a reason to worry something?
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 03 Oct 2023, 13:35:39

Tuike wrote:Interest rates on government bonds are rising. Is there a reason to worry something?
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/


only if you are in debt or dependent on the government, or have money in the western banking system.
Interesting how Russia has a 13% bank rate yet it's economy is doing ok. Anything over 10% is good I believe, but not like 18%, that's too high. A moderate rate allows people to buy homes and businesses to grow but prohibits speculation. It's good for the economy in other words. It also keeps government debt under control. How the US can go forward paying a Trillion+ interest on it's debt every year is anyone's guess.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 25 Oct 2023, 06:37:04

A.I.
2001, a Space Odyssey H.A.L. Are we there yet? Are we any further along than a very clever chess computer that can move words instead of pieces? Of course not. This was all another hyped up crock of marketing. According to some, 3 Trillion worth of marketing at this point.

The Froth Surrounding AI Is More Than $3 Trillion
By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets
The analysis is predicated on the premise that the 26% rally in the Nasdaq Composite through the first three quarters of this year that propelled it past fair value was due mainly to investor enthusiasm surrounding the promise and potential of stocks linked to artificial intelligence.

Investor fervor about artificial intelligence reached a peak in July, propelling the Nasdaq Composite to as much as 14,447. Traders were assigning a market capitalization of about $5.5 trillion to the AI complex then.


So place your bets ladies and gentlemen and sit right down for the greatest show on earth. But just remember, when the show is over everyone gets up and goes home with empty pockets. A.I.? I'm still waiting for a GPS that can reliably respond to my voice. "Voice command" doesn't work, but believe it or not, "Voice C*nt" works every time. Such is the state of a Garmin 2002 $700 Gps unit. There are limits to growth in all areas and certainly in the stock market.

How much was lost when the covid darlings collapsed? Zoom was nearly $500 at it's peak, now... $60
DocuSign? $300 down to $40 today. All up the losses were $7T. That's retirement money in many cases because the insiders know when to pump and know when to dump into the retail market. A market which includes private pension funds.

Tech’s reality check: How the industry lost $7.4 trillion in one year
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/25/techs-r ... -year.html

Who do you think is holding the lions share of crypto, Citi and UBS? Read this promotional piece put out in 2021, just before crypto rolled over. That's a classic sell into the herd technique.

These 13 banks have invested the most in crypto and blockchain to date https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... oin-2021-8


So when people prattle about AI I have to ask myself, how much of it is simply the Lies in the media designed to sell the companies and how much of it is genuine technological advancement. The quantum computer? Yeah, we all have one of those don't we...
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 07 Nov 2023, 08:56:12

Image

Bankrupt
But Adam Neumann got out with $2.2 billion.

WeWork IPO'd in October 2018 at $520 a share. Today, 80-cents. It's not alone either, that whole Braininess bundle of entrepreneur companies has been going down the gurgler, especially the ones that boomed over covid like Zoom $550 down to $62. Many are just cut in half like AirBnB, Dash, Lyft, DocuSign. We're talking Trillions written off retirement funds.

Assets of the top 300 retirement plans — including public and corporate pension funds, defined contribution plans and state-owned pension funds — fell 12.9% in 2022 to $20.6 trillion
https://www.pionline.com/megafunds/larg ... ial-crisis

That was last year, this year is little better. Another site https://www.ici.org/statistical-report/ret_23_q2 claims Total Retirement Assets were $36.7 Trillion in Second Quarter 2023, up from last year but down from 40 Trillion in 2021. But remember, while money pours out the back door so to speak with these losses, money is pouting in the front door every week and month with employee contributions. 8% of their income on average.

Total wages and salaries, BLS, 2022: $10 trillion+ So about a Trillion goes into the funds to inflate them every year. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BA06RC1A027NBEA

This site claims
September 26, 2023 U.S. Defined Contribution Plans increased at a rate of 12% to $10.2 trillion, according to ICI, even as separate Escalent research shows retirement plan participants lack know-how to manage retirement savings.
https://www.plansponsor.com/defined-con ... t-quarter/

So what! If 8% or more of that is simply growth from wage contributions it's meaningless. The numbers are all over the place but the fact is these pensions are in trouble, and are likely to be in a lot more trouble in the years to come. Why do the vast majority of people leave their money in these accounts? Why do they sit in front of the TV every night for hours, because they don't know any better.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 24 Feb 2024, 21:32:42

AI stocks crash, companies lose $190 billion as Google, Microsoft, other tech companies reveal earnings https://www.firstpost.com/tech/ai-stock ... 72552.html

Ok, that bubble is nearly done, Nvidia is still booming but give it a few months, it's the Cisco of the new decade. So where will be the best place to lose money now? Actually it should be pointed out that a lot of people made a lot of money from the A.I. bubble and the SPAC bubble of the covid years, but they weren't the average joe. The average joe buys into the hype just as the whales and insiders are selling out and they lose their savings. That's just how the world works. So, what's next?

SPACE. That's right star-trek fans, get your wallets out because he future is space tourism and exciting new Lunar explorations. I'm surprised Elon hasn't been at the forefront of this new drive with a public offering. Not of SpaceX of course, that's a nice little private gravy train funded by NASA dollars and he wouldn't want to expose it to the market vagaries. But something else, something like " a recent Bloomberg report indicated Elon Musk's SpaceX company might spin off Starlink for an IPO later this year. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/space ... ays-report

Forget AI Bubble. A New One Emerges As Space Firms Prepare For IPO Launchpad

The world's first commercial spaceplane entered the final testing phase ahead of its first flight in 2024 in December. Now, the company behind the orbital-class spaceplane, Sierra Space Corp., is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering and possible acquisitions.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/fo ... ic-markets


The AI Stock Market Crash That No One Saw Coming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYmUQ7vgYyQ
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