[TonyPrep]

The last chart I saw of oil production showed a peak in November 2018. Has it increased beyond that yet?

[AdamB]

The last chart I saw of oil production showed a peak in November 2018. Has it increased beyond that yet?

Nope. #6 claimed or occurred peak oil of this century was 2018.

Here is what was claimed in the days and months to follow back when peak oil was a real thing. Obviously, the backpedaling, if not outright revisionist history, is what has happened since. We don't even talk about it much around here anymore. No one is using it for their top level fear mongering scheme, most of the LATOC and LATOC-like sites vanished after becoming conspiracy dens, folks like Ruppert and Colin Campbell died, Matt Savinar became a substitute school teacher when it turns out that being a palm reader didn't pay well, Mike Lynch doesn't even have anyone left to argue with, and those who knew it was a crock back then kick out an occasional "told you so" comment, but otherwise the idea has passed into history. After all, it happened 5 years ago, and what you see around the world doesn't compare at all with the reference above for what the consequences were supposed to be.

[TonyPrep]

Covid, in 2020, depressed demand which has only just started to get back to where it was. Oil storage may have helped boost supply (e.g. the US released quite a lot from its strategic reserve (making a mockery of "strategic", perhaps). Yup, consequences aren't yet too apparent but give it time. There may be temporary factors which have masked the reduced supply but that has been trending up recently, from IEA reports.

[AdamB]

Covid, in 2020, depressed demand which has only just started to get back to where it was.

Peak oil #6 this century had already happened. As the previously provided link demonstrates, the consequences of peak were assumed to happen quite quickly. So is peak oil #6 a crock, again, because we didn't see those consequences, or were those early 20th century peak oil claimants as halfwitted and uninformed as some of us were happily pointing out contemporaneously?

And what happened after the initial Covid demand crash? It came back. And looks to be expected to continue coming back as well. From, I might add, the only peak oil claimant of the early 21st century (published 2004 I believe?) that hasn't had their estimate discredited by...you guessed it...more oil.

Oil storage may have helped boost supply (e.g. the US released quite a lot from its strategic reserve (making a mockery of "strategic", perhaps). Yup, consequences aren't yet too apparent but give it time.

Indeed. See graph above. Good thing consequences aren't even visible yet....5 years after PO #6.

Do you have any informed guess as to what the final number of peak oils this century might be? Is #6 it? Or could there be a #7 here in a year or two? #8 after another demand/suppy cycle? #9 when price increases and kicks in some of those profitable at those prices resources I've mentioned?

There may be temporary factors which have masked the reduced supply but that has been trending up recently, from IEA reports.

And has been documented each and every month since the Covid collapse by the EIA. No need to count on the IEA reports when the EIA (not discredited by peak oil claims as the IEA has been) happily provides this information every month.

[Outcast_Searcher]

As always, unless there is ACTUALLY a FUNDAMENTAL problem with there being "enough oil", then when a long enough and strong enough price signal indicates more global demand, over time, more oil should be PRODUCED to meet that demand at those higher prices (presumably for fat profits).

So there should be no surprise to the figures this time around, except for the usual all-doom-all-the-time crowd which endlessly bleats "peak oil has been reached" sans meaningful evidence. (Since they apparently NEVER learn, how could they not be endlessly surprised?)

Of course, at some point, when enough ICE demand is shifting to EV's, there will be less total global demand for crude oil (even if petrochemical and, say, asphalt demand keeps rising globally, which it might well if we keep growing the global population and much of it aspires to the middle class level of consumption). At that point, prices should moderate or even fall quite a bit, which will put the lie (over time) to the idea that THIS TIME, we're into "peak oil doom", but of course, it won't for the usual suspects.

[Plantagenet]

Of course, at some point, when enough ICE demand is shifting to EV's, there will be less total global demand for crude oil

Exactly right.....but I wonder when will that happen?

Its not happening yet....in fact the data suggests that global demand for oil is likely to hit a new high in 2023 due to significant growth in oil demand in China and other Asian consumers.

oil-demand-to-be-driven-by-asia-this-year-as-china-reopens-iea-says

And China has been signing long term deals with Russia, Iran and now Saudi Arabia to guarantee their own oil supplies for decades into the future.

China itself says it will hit peak petroleum consumption levels in 2030....and perhaps it will.

But the new chinese oil deals with Russia and Saudi are set up to guarantee huge amounts of oil will be delivered to China way past 2030.


China has been signing long term deals with Russia, Iran and now Saudi Arabia to guarantee their own oil supplies for decades into the future

Cheers!!

[theluckycountry]

Of course, at some point, when enough ICE demand is shifting to EV's, there will be less total global demand for crude oil
(even if petrochemical and, say, asphalt demand keeps rising globally, which it might well if we keep growing the global population and much of it aspires to the middle class level of consumption).

This is wrong on so many levels. How can there be less demand for oil because of increased EV sales? EVs are literally made of oil, and a lot more oil that it takes to make a conventional vehicle. Do they live forever? Do EV cars never need to be replaced?

And you seem to assume that if population stabilizes we won't need anymore asphalt? Like roads never need repaving? That they are eternal too?

It's exactly this sort of shallow thinking that has put the American project into the quagmire it's in today. A nation run on Hopium and delusions. You should turn your TV off for a year and discover reality.

Can You Explain What Has Gone Wrong With America?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/can ... ng-america
A Nation of Perverts
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-06- ... r-children

[AdamB]

It's exactly this sort of shallow thinking that has put the American project into the quagmire it's in today. A nation run on Hopium and delusions.

Maybe that hopium is part and parcel with exceptional and hegemony? After all, hopium and delusions had Americans building cars only a couple years after the Aussies stopped having their population bolstered by prisoners. I mean, it took until Crocodile Dundee arrived on the scene that anyone noticed that island west of those smart and wonderful folks in New Zealand.

The tallest mountain on the entire continent to the west of New Zealand is 7,310' ASL.

Real riders emigrate I suppose (not the normal kangaroo riders of course), leave behind the horror of their countries origin and run Cottonwood pass twistys, at 12,000'+ ASL, nearly a mile higher than piddling little hills on that prisoner settled island west of those fine New Zealand folk.

That hopium seems to work pretty good doing things no one else can.

Those folks west of New Zealand?

I imagine that Americans or Chinese built the bridge, while Aussies were just racing around on their kangaroos in excitement with all the activity, look, a bridge! Wow!

Should you feel the need to attempt to ride a real twisty, feel free to import whatever foreign built 2 wheeler you've got instead of your kangaroo though.

[theluckycountry]

Saudi Arabia says new oil cuts show teamwork with Russia is strong

July 6, 2023

VIENNA, July 5 (Reuters) - Russia-Saudi oil cooperation is still going strong as part of the OPEC+ alliance, which will do "whatever necessary" to support the market, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 023-07-05/

That's spin for "will do whatever is necessary" to increase their profits. The story goes on to say how the US is the biggest oil producer outside of OPEC, but does not say that that oil is not so good for powering modern engines, which is why the US imports so much oil still.

Shale Oil’s Limitations: Low Octane

Shale oil, which the Energy Information Administration projects will represent a rising proportion of American oil supplies in the coming decades, has a surprising Achilles heel: its low octane levels, which make it a poor fit for the high-efficiency car engines of the future... “IHS forecasts that turbocharged engines will represent 55 percent of production for North America by 2024, up from an expected 33 percent this year,”

But shale oil, it turns out, brings with it a variety of elements that lower the octane levels of a gasoline blend, like naphtha. The ultra-light color that at first excited shale drillers — the light, sweet crude that had become harder to find from conventional sources — reflects shale oil’s higher proportions of natural gas liquids and other easy-to-ignite hydrocarbons.

“Our thesis is that the U.S. refining system is close to being maxed-out on the amount of shale oil it can process,” a Morgan Stanley research note concluded this month, citing shale oil’s light hue, which makes it ill-suited to make high octane gas, as well as jet fuel and diesel.

https://www.desmog.com/2018/04/24/octan ... nd-trucks/

U.S. Shale’s Dirty Secret

Lighter shale oil is perfectly fine for making gasoline, but not the best for making diesel and jet fuel. Medium and heavy oil is needed for that.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ecret.html

[AdamB]

U.S. Shale’s Dirty Secret

Lighter shale oil is perfectly fine for making gasoline, but not the best for making diesel and jet fuel. Medium and heavy oil is needed for that.

Good thing the largest oil resources on the planet are heavy or extra heavy to mix it with then. Amateur. Do you fall for it when someone asks you to pull on their finger too?

[theluckycountry]

Russia is producing a fairly constant 10 million barrels of oil per day.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/130 ... roduction/

According to the Bank of Russia's estimate, external debt of the Russian Federation as of June 30, 2023 totaled $347.7 billion. LOL, that's a third the debt Australia carries, but equal to what we carried before the government paid every one to stay home and every business to shut down because of the Magic Virus. It is also a figure approximating the amount stolen when Russia was kicked out of SWIFT.

Now the US mines 13 million barrels a day, and it's debt... Well we don't need to go there do we
The total is off with the fairies, but the yearly addition I believe is now 2 Trillion. A lot of which btw simply goes to pay the interest on the old debt (ponzi). This alone proves that the US oil bonanza is and always was a fraud that never made a red cent! What made America Great, what promoted the 'Dream' was the abundance of conventional oil, which peaked in production in 1970 odd, and at which point American began it's inexorable decline from status as a first world nation. Mining millions of barrels of uneconomic oil hasn't changed that.



Russia it would appear is shepherding it's oil reserves, and that 10 million a day it now produces, year after year, actually exceeds the peak of US production back in 1970



Is it any wonder the US tried to take over Russia by stealth economic means after the USSR collapsed? Is it any wonder they are trying to demonize them now? It's a case of sour grapes, America blew it's fortune 50 years ago while Russia is still booming. Stalin is dead! The meme that Russia is still the evil empire is nothing more than finger pointing in the school yard by a bully who has finally been called.

[theluckycountry]

As for western analysis of Russian decline, well that's some of the worst fortune telling ever contrived as they relentlessly predict a peak only to see the Russian's surpass it.

Oxford Institute https://seekingalpha.com/article/451349 ... ere-on-out

Last year, against all odds, Russia managed to grow its oil output despite being hit with tough sanctions, a plethora of oilfield service companies exiting the country as well as the refusal by western countries to buy its crude for the most part.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/A ... -2035.html

There is little point debating the peak of Russian oil by the production figures, it clearly defies analysis. A better way would be to look at peak discovery of oil, but even this would be difficult since the nation is a closed shop and who knows where the geologists have been?

There have been widely varying estimates of proven oil reserves in Russia. Most estimates included only Western Siberian reserves, which have been exploited since the 1970s and supply two-thirds of Russian oil. However, there are potentially huge reserves elsewhere. In 2005, the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources estimated that another 4.7 billion barrels (0.75×109 m3) of oil exist in Eastern Siberia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Russia

Massive Russian oil discovery in the Arctic

Rosneft has a majority stake in 28 offshore licenses in the Arctic, eight of which are located in the Pechora Sea. (Photo: Rosneft)

Russian energy giant Rosneft announced the discovery of a huge oil deposit in the Pechora Sea. The new oil field is estimated to contain 82 million tons of oil. The oil field was discovered during a drilling campaign in the Medynsko-Varandeysky coastal area. “During the tests, a free flow of oil with a maximum flow rate of 220 cubic meters per day was achieved

https://polarjournal.ch/en/2022/07/11/m ... he-arctic/

Yes yes, we shouldn't be drilling in the arctic, but there you have it. US politicians would do well to make peace with the Russians before it's too late, before they find themselves out in the cold good and proper! That Arctic oil can be shipped down through the Baring sea right onto America's doorstep but it aint gonna happen they way things stand.

[Plantagenet]

Peter Zeihan just had an interesting take on Russian oil production.

He was discussing the recent success Ukraine has had in sinking Russian naval vessels. And a couple of days ago Ukraine sank a Russian oil tanker, and then threatened to destroy Russia's entire fleet in the Black Sea and close Russian Black Sea ports to shipping. This would be in response to Russia's attacks on Ukrainians ports and vessels.

You'd think the loss of their naval vessels would be bad news for Russia, but Zeihan thinks the loss of their oil tankers and the potential closure of the Russian Black Sea ports to all shipping could be even worse news for Russia.

According to Zeihan if Russian oil can't be exported through the Black Sea this winter then they will have to shut in their oil wells.....and those wells will freeze up in the Russian winters. And once frozen up they'll be useless. Russian would have to redrill all frozen wells to regain access to their oil field, and that could take years!!


If Russian can't export oil through the Black Sea due to Ukrainian attacks on their tankers, Russian oil wells will freeze up and then they would have to re-drill all frozen wells to regain access to their oil field, and that could take years!!

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

As for western analysis of Russian decline, well that's some of the worst fortune telling ever contrived as they relentlessly predict a peak only to see the Russian's surpass it.

Oxford Institute https://seekingalpha.com/article/451349 ... ere-on-out

Last year, against all odds, Russia managed to grow its oil output despite being hit with tough sanctions, a plethora of oilfield service companies exiting the country as well as the refusal by western countries to buy its crude for the most part.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/A ... -2035.html

Its true that Russia managed to raise their oil production by about 2% in 2022.

BUT they are still way below their peak levels of production at ca. 12 million bbls per day hit in 2019.

And most analysts expect Russian oil production to fall by another 25-40% over the next 12 years......

So....when you look at the actual numbers they show that Russian oil production hit a peak at ca 12 million bbls/day in 2019, and is most likely headed much lower in coming years.


Russian oil production hit a peak at ca 12 million bbls/day in 2019, and most oil analysts say it is likely headed much lower in coming years

Cheers!

[mousepad]

potential closure of the Russian Black Sea ports to all shipping could be even worse news for Russia.

I'm wondering who will be hurting most if Vlad's oil can't hit the world market anymore. Better hope Sleepy has another strategic reserve ready to tap into. Or should I start my own strategic reserve in my bathtub?

[theluckycountry]

The problems for a nation don't start when their domestic production peaks, they start when they begin imports and domestic wealth declines accordingly. Typically these two events occur at the same time as the nation in question is continuing to grow. I don't of a single case where a nation has not followed this pattern. It's like a drug addict, they can't go back to a lower usage.

[Tanada]

potential closure of the Russian Black Sea ports to all shipping could be even worse news for Russia.

I'm wondering who will be hurting most if Vlad's oil can't hit the world market anymore. Better hope Sleepy has another strategic reserve ready to tap into. Or should I start my own strategic reserve in my bathtub?

I think even saying closure of the Black Sea ports is vitally important is a big stretch. Russia has access to the world sea shipping market via the Baltic, via the White Sea/Arctic and via the Pacific without a severe strain on capabilities. We are not talking about Japan or Great Britain where closing all the ports in one area is all it takes to blockade the entire nation. Even in those island nations it took massive efforts in war time to severely limit their shipping during the world wars and it never was entirely stopped. The simple reality is even NATO still wants Russian oil on the world market because the economic consequences of eliminating that portion from the global market would hurt them at least as badly as it would harm Russia and probably worse because Russia can still ship oil to East Asia via pipeline even if all sea routes were closed.

[Newfie]

Tanada,

I came across this article this am.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arcti ... le-sea-ice

[theluckycountry]

2023
Regarding crude oil, China's crude oil imports from Russia surged to a record high of 2.01 million B/D in February, a roughly 20% share of the market, the data showed. Russian crude deliveries surged 42% year on year and were 33.1% higher than shipments from second-largest supplier Saudi Arabia which supplied 1.51 million B/D

https://jpt.spe.org/russia-nears-pipeli ... ew-records

Russian pipeline networks
https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/images/03 ... mage-1.jpg
Img Source https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsig ... eline.html

Interesting to see the number of SPR storage sites in China, and the numerous 'proposed' ones. None in Russia of course. Why build storage sites when it's gushing out of the ground all over the place.

And for the conspiracy minded

China ‘complicit’ in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, MI6 chief tells POLITICO
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-c ... ard-moore/

They wanted the oil for themselves

[Plantagenet]

potential closure of the Russian Black Sea ports to all shipping could be even worse news for Russia.

I'm wondering who will be hurting most if Vlad's oil can't hit the world market anymore. Better hope Sleepy has another strategic reserve ready to tap into. Or should I start my own strategic reserve in my bathtub?

I think even saying closure of the Black Sea ports is vitally important is a big stretch. Russia has access to the world sea shipping market via the Baltic, via the White Sea/Arctic and via the Pacific without a severe strain on capabilities. We are not talking about Japan or Great Britain where closing all the ports in one area is all it takes to blockade the entire nation. Even in those island nations it took massive efforts in war time to severely limit their shipping during the world wars and it never was entirely stopped.

As I said in my post above, Peter Zeihan presented this idea in one of his recent Geopolitical youtube videos. As I understand it Zeihan isn't saying Ukraine is going to blockade every Russian port----just those on the Black Sea. AND Zeihan is right that the huge Russian oil deposits around the Caspian Sea go to export market through the Russian ports on the Baltic Sea, which Ukrainian has now demonstrated it can attack. Furthermore, Russian is no longer shipping oil directly to Europe because of EU sanctions, so some of that oil is likely also now going out through the Russian ports on the Black Sea, and then on to India who is re-exporting it back to Europe..


Pipelines carry Russian oil from the Caspian sea oilfields to ports on the Black Sea where it is exported by tanker---and Ukraine just attacked the main Russian port and then blew up one of those tankers while it was at sea, and then threatened to sink all Russian ships in the Black Sea.

The simple reality is even NATO still wants Russian oil on the world market because the economic consequences of eliminating that portion from the global market would hurt them at least as badly as it would harm Russia

NATO doesn't always get what it wants. For instance, NATO has set a 'cap" on the price that Russia is allowed to sell oil at, but Russian oil is selling for more than the NATO cap. And NATO also wants Ukrainian wheat on the world market because of the economic consequences and potential famines that Russia's blockade of Ukraine will cause, but that is't happening either.

I don't know if Zeihan's right or not but I almost went out and bought some more oil stock because if Ukraine carries out their threat to sink more Russian naval vessels and oil tankers, oil prices will likely be heading higher.

Cheers!