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Peaking, a Theory of Rapid Transition

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Peaking, a Theory of Rapid Transition

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 19 Feb 2023, 15:35:30

theluckycountry wrote:
jawagord wrote:
The mistake these reports all make is to assume the rest of the world is the same Economically and Politically as Europe/USA. The energy transitions fantasies that rich countries can indulge in by borrowing huge sums of money to subsidize unreliable wind and solar are not available to poor countries.


Very true very true. makes you wonder what those Billions think when they see the twaddle on TV. Even in villages of the third world there are lots of TVs, but huts and shanties covered in solar panels?


All the third world countries are continuing to build coal-fired power plants. So does China. So does India. So does Germany, for that matter.

Image

The new CO2 emissions from all the new coal-fired plants will swamp any reductions in CO2 emissions from the US and the EU.

Look for global CO2 emissions to continue to rise, global warming to intensify, and global heat waves, droughts, floods, superstorms, forest fires etc etc. all to continue to get worse and worse.

Cheers!
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Re: Peaking, a Theory of Rapid Transition

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Feb 2023, 16:05:09

Plantagenet wrote:Look for global CO2 emissions to continue to rise, global warming to intensify, and global heat waves, droughts, floods, superstorms, forest fires etc etc. all to continue to get worse and worse.

Cheers!


Pretty much. Countries don't care much at all...and neither do CO super polluters in general. "Gonna get mine before it all melts!!" being the operative idea I guess.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peaking, a Theory of Rapid Transition

Unread postby mousepad » Sun 19 Feb 2023, 17:42:15

Plantagenet wrote:All the third world countries are continuing to build coal-fired power plants. So does China. So does India. So does Germany, for that matter.


Strange. Don't we have a shitload of un-biased university and gov studies clearly showing that wind/solar is WAY cheaper than coal?
Could it be that the un-biased studies are not so un-biased after all? kublikhan can probably answer that. He's good with studies and identifying bias.
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Re: Peaking, a Theory of Rapid Transition

Unread postby jato0072 » Mon 20 Feb 2023, 19:23:04

Strange. Don't we have a shitload of un-biased university and gov studies clearly showing that wind/solar is WAY cheaper than coal?


Technology so awesome the Governor of California had to outlaw ICE vehicles and Natural Gas appliances!

Link

I now live in clown world.
"On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
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Re: Peaking, a Theory of Rapid Transition

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Feb 2023, 22:41:53

mousepad wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:All the third world countries are continuing to build coal-fired power plants. So does China. So does India. So does Germany, for that matter.


Strange. Don't we have a shitload of un-biased university and gov studies clearly showing that wind/solar is WAY cheaper than coal?


That is the claim. But interestingly, the more renewables they add to the system, the higher my electric bill seems to go. I wonder when the consumer gets to see the cheaper part?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peaking, a Theory of Rapid Transition

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 26 Feb 2023, 06:28:21

mousepad wrote:Don't we have a shitload of un-biased university and gov studies clearly showing that wind/solar is WAY cheaper than coal?


I've read a few of those over the years, toilet paper is all most are fit for. Now I just look at the world with my own eyes and see things like electricity costs going through the roof for anyone living in a state or nation that has gone full retard rebuildable solar and wind. How's that hydro plant at hoover dam going these days?

Over a decade ago I read a 'real' report from the state of San Paulo on their ethanol production. They were the darling that the other nations modeled their transitions on. 2m of rain every year, multiple growing seasons, virtual slave labor cutting and processing the cane and producing the ethanol. Yeah it worked for them, just!

The ceaseless chatter about EV's transforming the world reminds of the ceaseless chatter in the early 00's about how Ethanol was going to replace oil as the preferred fuel for cars. It seems like every generation has to get sucked into one of these schemes.

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Re: Peaking, a Theory of Rapid Transition

Unread postby jato0072 » Sun 26 Feb 2023, 12:06:12

Image

A report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that China manufactures over 80% of all solar cells and assembled solar panels. The country produces virtually all the wafers used for solar panels.


So I guess the Greens had better take the White House and get the Deep State to stop pissing off China. That is if they want to "Save the Planet". :lol:
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Re: Peaking, a Theory of Rapid Transition

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 26 Feb 2023, 18:32:39

"The China Price" it's an eyeopener what they do to keep the prices down, eventually though...
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Re: Peaking, a Theory of Rapid Transition

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 19 Jun 2023, 18:18:48

Plantagenet wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:
Very true very true. makes you wonder what those Billions think when they see the twaddle on TV. Even in villages of the third world there are lots of TVs, but huts and shanties covered in solar panels?


All the third world countries are continuing to build coal-fired power plants. So does China. So does India. So does Germany, for that matter.


Of course they do, they can't afford to indulge in the delusions the Western governments do, with all their compounding debt. Debt in the West if free almost but African nations who borrow, through agencies like the IMF are constrained to pay it back in $US. So they build coal plants, because it's a lot cheaper and they will last for 40 or 60 years rather than the 20 years or less for rebuildables.

When they build a mine, and a factory, and a supply chain for rebuildables that isn't dependent on oil and coal I'll say rebuildables have a chance, but there is little chance of that is there. Recently they built a wind farm in north Queensland, on the top of a mountain. The earth-moving to build the roads and clear the pads was phenomenal, then the gazillion tons of concrete and steel needed to build the towers and bases. All an exercise in political posturing by the state's premier.
Mount Emerald was Queensland’s largest wind farm when it began generating power in late 2018 and is predicted to meet the annual needs of approximately 75,000 north Queensland homes over a 20-year period.


Cost 400 Million, and in 20 years it's worn out. $5300 per household (plus the interest on the loans) must be reclaimed before a profit can be made. There will be big increases in power costs obviously, and just as obviously households will react by reducing consumption. Anyone who can afford to (and here it's only $5000/home) will install rooftop solar and offset the cost, it's a cat chasing it's tail.

https://mtemeraldwindfarm.com.au/
2021 • Australia
The wind farms angering renewable energy fans
https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2021/12 ... ergy-fans/
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