[theluckycountry]

I am more optimistic on that then you are. Over the fifty plus years of my driving life the technology for automobiles has made great advances and it appears to be accelerating. At one point they were considering pavement markers and deliniator posts that transmitted information to a receiver in a autonomous driven car.

I've been driving for 40, and sure the cars are better, but they are still just steel boxes on rubber wheels, burning oil in a steel engine as they roll down the road. Not much to show for 120 years of progress? Not when you compare it the progress made of say ships and planes over that period. As for highways studded with high-tech, well first they have to figure out how to build the highways without Oil! They are literally made of oil and the trend in many rural places is to covert that back to roadbase with regular grading because they simply can't afford to build them like in the 50's and 60's with the cheap oil we had then.

The depletion of oil colors everything. I have been reading about "Amazing" technology for decades but all I see is roads and bridges collapsing of old age from one end of the nation to another. I suppose if you live within the confines of a major city that has a good tax base you may see that technology roll out, but it won't be nation-wide I assure you.

[AdamB]

I've been driving for 40, and sure the cars are better, but they are still just steel boxes on rubber wheels, burning oil in a steel engine as they roll down the road. Not much to show for 120 years of progress?

Maybe that's the case in your Chinese mining colony. I mean seriously, you can't even build cars or nuke subs you've accepted your neutering quite well.

I've got a car that doesn't even have an engine...they don't allow you to even get newspapers about the EV revolution in the Chinese mining colony? Too bad you don't have any skills that another country would want.

The depletion of oil colors everything.

Sure. When oil was depleting back in 1865, it was just awful for the Confederacy.

I suppose if you live within the confines of a major city that has a good tax base you may see that technology roll out, but it won't be nation-wide I assure you.

Your perspective from a Chinese mining colony is infantile at best.

[mousepad]

I've been driving for 40, and sure the cars are better, but they are still just steel boxes on rubber wheels, burning oil in a steel engine as they roll down the road. Not much to show for 120 years of progress?

I agree. Model T, ferrari or tesla. It takes me the same amount of time to drive to work.
The jump was from horse to car. Adding a CD player and power windows is such ridiculous small progress it ain't even worth mentioning.

[vtsnowedin]

I've been driving for 40, and sure the cars are better, but they are still just steel boxes on rubber wheels, burning oil in a steel engine as they roll down the road. Not much to show for 120 years of progress?

I agree. Model T, ferrari or tesla. It takes me the same amount of time to drive to work.
The jump was from horse to car. Adding a CD player and power windows is such ridiculous small progress it ain't even worth mentioning.

Quite the opposite in my view. My fathers first car was a Model T that had a top speed around 40mph and had no safety features at all . Not even a windshield defroster or electric starter.Today's cars all can travel at well over any posted speed limit and with modern tires ,suspensions brakes and airbags are wonders of performance and safety and have done so without eating into fuel economy.

[AdamB]

Adding a CD player and power windows is such ridiculous small progress it ain't even worth mentioning.

You are mostly describing similarities in use. Yes, 4 wheels is better than a horse, and all cages are still cages. But not all cages are created equal, and some manage to do the same job as the emissions spewing antiques except without all that emissions spewing part. Yes, both are similarly better than a horse in terms of carrying you to and fro. Except now, you can buy a cage that don't require you to spew emissions while going to and fro. To some people, THAT simple fact is the game changer, not that they do the same job as the ICE powered antiques.

[AdamB]

Today's cars all can travel at well over any posted speed limit and with modern tires ,suspensions brakes and airbags are wonders of performance and safety and have done so without eating into fuel economy.

And the newest kind don't even give a rat's behind about the fuel economy! And still have all that other stuff you mentioned!! Will wonders never cease?

[vtsnowedin]

Today's cars all can travel at well over any posted speed limit and with modern tires ,suspensions brakes and airbags are wonders of performance and safety and have done so without eating into fuel economy.

And the newest kind don't even give a rat's behind about the fuel economy! And still have all that other stuff you mentioned!! Will wonders never cease?

A gas pump vs. a coal fired power plant feeding the grid? Do not think the fuel or energy economy or even the carbon footprint questions has been settled in the EVs favor. They have not.

[AdamB]

And the newest kind don't even give a rat's behind about the fuel economy! And still have all that other stuff you mentioned!! Will wonders never cease?

A gas pump vs. a coal fired power plant feeding the grid?

I knew I used those solar panels on the roof garage for something....cant be for fueling the car...must be....oh I know, they run the vacuum!

Do not think the fuel or energy economy or even the carbon footprint questions has been settled in the EVs favor. They have not.

Well, not settled, sure, but as someone who has been testing them for 8 years now, the cost per mile thing has been settled, and the EV in general carbon footprint seems to be dependent on where local electricity comes from. And that sure is settled for some of us! I'm not even an early adopter anymore, the neighbor put in all these Tesla panels and a Tesla charger in the garage, that guy went whole hog!! I think it is settled for him as well. Maybe it is just unsettled for those who don't have quite the situation for an EV yet? Apartment folks, folks living in states burning plenty of coal who don't have solar panels, etc etc. Folks who PRETEND they have an EV? Those are my favorite, people wanting the cache of having an EV to the point where they pretend their Prius is one! That means there is at least a jealousy component here working towards the EV crowd, every little bit helps until....I dunno. Fast charging as common as gas stations taking away the range anxiety?

[theluckycountry]

I've been driving for 40, and sure the cars are better, but they are still just steel boxes on rubber wheels, burning oil in a steel engine as they roll down the road. Not much to show for 120 years of progress?

I agree. Model T, ferrari or tesla. It takes me the same amount of time to drive to work.
The jump was from horse to car. Adding a CD player and power windows is such ridiculous small progress it ain't even worth mentioning.

Quite the opposite in my view. My fathers first car was a Model T that had a top speed around 40mph and had no safety features at all . Not even a windshield defroster or electric starter.Today's cars all can travel at well over any posted speed limit and with modern tires ,suspensions brakes and airbags are wonders of performance and safety and have done so without eating into fuel economy.

Yes, I didn't want to underplay the comfort and safety aspects, these have gone on and on, but it's a fixed paradigm, all restrained by the roads they drive on. From a personal pleasure perspective the car is magnificent but it's smeared our cities with junk and led directly to the dead-end suburban model of living which is totally dependent on fossil fuels. It doesn't matter if we can create global fleets of EV's, the suburbs and cities we have built around the car still require enormous energy inputs to make them viable. Just the water infrastructure out to the far flung suburbs alone is so complex and energy dependent it's doubtful it could be maintained without oil and coal.

Ships, trains, these all made sense in a future of constrained energy because of the technological advancements made for them. Modern fleets of sailing ships would be a simple matter to construct, super efficient wood burning steam, or efficient electric trains likewise make a lot of sense. But the car? It won't work without vast inputs of oil, or lithium batteries made from oil because it's basic design hasn't changed in 120 years. How much does a model T weigh? A Tesla-S weighs two ton. Which makes perfect sense if you are burning mountains of coal to charge it and mountains of oil to mine and manufacture the batteries. Two ton just to carry a couple of people to the supermarket.

[mousepad]

first car was a Model T that had a top speed around 40mph and had no safety features at all . Not even a windshield defroster or electric starter.Today's cars all can travel at well over any posted speed limit and with modern tires ,suspensions brakes and airbags are wonders of performance and safety and have done so without eating into fuel economy.

I just visited Los Angeles and had to run an errand in the city. Traffic jams and red lights. A model T would have been enough to keep up with traffic. I would probably have been faster riding a horse squeezing between cars. And a horse doesn't need windshield defroster and electric starter either. And a good trained horse is mostly self-driving, too.
Not quite sure about the fuel economy of a horse. A bail of hay cost $4 in my area. How far can a horse go on that?

But let's no be critical and let's all bow to "progress", our lord, instead.

[AdamB]

I just visited Los Angeles and had to run an errand in the city.

You have my condolences.

Traffic jams and red lights. A model T would have been enough to keep up with traffic. I would probably have been faster riding a horse squeezing between cars. And a horse doesn't need windshield defroster and electric starter either. And a good trained horse is mostly self-driving, too.
Not quite sure about the fuel economy of a horse. A bail of hay cost $4 in my area. How far can a horse go on that?

But let's no be critical and let's all bow to "progress", our lord, instead.

Maybe LA will revert to transportation systems of yesteryear when it becomes obvious that lack of energy to run cars isn't the issue, but poorly designed and over populated urban areas? It sounds like you are describing a perfect bicycle environment. I would rather shoot myself in the eye with a BB gun than go into LA. Been there, done that, in a country still full of beautiful wide open places, LA is just as high on the list to avoid as Manhattan.

[mousepad]

but poorly designed and over populated urban areas? It sounds like you are describing a perfect bicycle environment.

Exactly. Compare this to the city of Avalon on Santa Catalina island a few miles off the coast of LA.
Small dense city. All in walking distance. The most you need is a golf cart to get groceries. There's no need for $100k teslas loaded with precious batteries for 300 mile range. There is no need for hyper performance shocks and tires. No need for all this incremental technological nonsense.

LA is just as high on the list to avoid as Manhattan.

I'm addicted to junk food. And there's no better place to get my yearly dose than southern california.

[vtsnowedin]

first car was a Model T that had a top speed around 40mph and had no safety features at all . Not even a windshield defroster or electric starter.Today's cars all can travel at well over any posted speed limit and with modern tires ,suspensions brakes and airbags are wonders of performance and safety and have done so without eating into fuel economy.

I just visited Los Angeles and had to run an errand in the city. Traffic jams and red lights. A model T would have been enough to keep up with traffic. I would probably have been faster riding a horse squeezing between cars. And a horse doesn't need windshield defroster and electric starter either. And a good trained horse is mostly self-driving, too.
Not quite sure about the fuel economy of a horse. A bail of hay cost $4 in my area. How far can a horse go on that?

But let's no be critical and let's all bow to "progress", our lord, instead.

A pleasure horse today cost about $5,000/year to house ,feed,and maintain. One of the reasons the Model T became instantly popular was it got the horses and the horse manure off the streets making the cities much cleaner and healthier.

[AdamB]

LA is just as high on the list to avoid as Manhattan.

I'm addicted to junk food. And there's no better place to get my yearly dose than southern california.

You live close enough to LA to run in for an errand, but you can't find junk food in your locale? I mean, its the LA basin, the entire place is huge and infested with junk food. Unless of course you live off on the previously mentioned island, and they don't have it I suppose.

[mousepad]

You live close enough to LA to run in for an errand, but you can't find junk food in your locale?

I travel once per year to LA. And while there, I do my errands, visit family, do business and indulge. For reasons you mentioned, I moved far a away from LA already 20 years ago. The closest to junk food I get in my small town is MCD, 20 miles away and taco bell 40 miles away.

But I sure miss In-n-Out.

[theluckycountry]

2016

what technology, what computer processor/system do you envision that has the capacity to see and navigate down a street in the rain and snow? Or at night? Or beyond the single map (ie off grid) that Google created several years ago?

All these companies would not be blowing this much money if they thought it couldn't be done. The sensor packages in cars is becoming a commoditized part. Tesla gets it from...

Ahhh, what a difference a 6 or 7 years makes hey.

"It’s time to admit self-driving cars aren’t going to happen" States the headline of one of numerous stories out now on the obvious lack of progress, or even mention in the media, about these futuristic marvels.

I was an early skeptic to this technology and became very skeptical when Tesla disabled it's auto-pilot features after a string of very public crashes. But that was years ago, and since then it's been 'crickets'. Not to say the entire AI self-drive phenomena wasn't a success in some quarters. It boosted the share price of many a corporation. Between that and the Dumb money flooding in to catch the wave of the 'future' they made out quite well. In a way it was like the DotCom bubble but instead of putting dotcom before your name you had to drop a couple of million for a R&D project.

I think this whole thread could be archived at this stage. It was an exercise in Hopeium, or Delusionum.

https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/27/self- ... to-happen/

What Happened With Self-Driving Cars?
But recently, many of the main players in the autonomous vehicle game have been scaling back or outright abandoning their lofty ambitions. Last week Ford and Volkswagen pulled the plug on their self-driving effort, Argo AI, the latest admission
https://www.outtraveler.com/news/2022/1 ... iving-cars

Here is where someone's retirement assets went

Four students on the team went on to co-found self-driving companies, which have raised billions since...
“We started out doing this stuff because it was cool and it was a neat idea, but we weren’t quite sure how it was going to be used,” Salesky said in a 2019 interview.

[mousepad]

"It’s time to admit self-driving cars aren’t going to happen" States the headline of one of numerous stories out now on the obvious lack of progress,

I remember 2015. Then Mercedes boss Dieter Zetsche promised fully autonomous cars by 2018. Working in AI myself, I chuckled. The boss of a car company can't predict car tech 3 years into the future. And yet here we are on this forum constantly beaten up by AdamB for incorrect amateur predictions while the so called "experts" ain't any better at all.

[AdamB]

The boss of a car company can't predict car tech 3 years into the future. And yet here we are on this forum constantly beaten up by AdamB for incorrect amateur predictions while the so called "experts" ain't any better at all.

Not all of them.

[theluckycountry]

I remember 2015. Then Mercedes boss Dieter Zetsche promised fully autonomous cars by 2018. Working in AI myself, I chuckled. The boss of a car company can't predict car tech 3 years into the future. And yet here we are on this forum constantly beaten up by AdamB for incorrect amateur predictions while the so called "experts" ain't any better at all.

I wouldn't regard anything he says as having meaning, one way or the other. From my readings of his posts, before I put him on ignore, he came across as the quintessential new millennial man, one who believes all the tripe that comes down the media sewer pipe. His denial of peakoil is simply explained by the fact he cannot envisage his world falling apart, a lifestyle heavily dependent on fossil fuels. It's why the broad masses of the public never engaged in the peakoil story back in the heyday. They didn't want to believe it, they wanted instead to be told that everything was going to be ok, that they could continue to live like they did in the 20th century.

That's the average man in the street for you. No interest in the future, solely engaged in their own petty struggles and increasingly in efforts to look better than their neighbors.

[AdamB]

His denial of peakoil is simply explained by the fact he cannot envisage his world falling apart, a lifestyle heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

While amateur hour psychoanalysis is always entertaining, as usual, it is also uninformed to the point of being laughable. In this case, for anyone who has ever paid attention to what I've written on the topic.

I've never denied peak oil, and have explained why multiple times. But I did know that folks were being sold a pig in a poke by the geologically and economically handicapped earlier in the century, and more importantly, the falsehoods, illogical and incomplete understanding of the various scientific specialties involved needed to sell that pig. And new oil came along and demonstrated the validity of that pig, and now we talk about other things because otherwise it is just so...embarassing...