[Newfie]

VT,

The USA HV distribution system has been in trouble, under funded maintenance and upgrades for a long time.

The USA rail transit (heavy rail) was a dismal mess due various RR bankruptcies and mergers. It took the federal government to nationalize Amtrak and then later to force the commuter lines onto the states in order to save the system. I lived through a bit of that and saw first hand how the systems were stripped if anything of value, right down to the hands off the clock in 30th Street Station, Philly.

I could go on for some time with first hand stories. Unfortunately I could support or condemn either side.

No one size fits all solutions.

[vtsnowedin]

VT,

The USA HV distribution system has been in trouble, under funded maintenance and upgrades for a long time.

The USA rail transit (heavy rail) was a dismal mess due various RR bankruptcies and mergers. It took the federal government to nationalize Amtrak and then later to force the commuter lines onto the states in order to save the system. I lived through a bit of that and saw first hand how the systems were stripped if anything of value, right down to the hands off the clock in 30th Street Station, Philly.

I could go on for some time with first hand stories. Unfortunately I could support or condemn either side.

No one size fits all solutions.

By HV I assume you mean high voltage DC main transmission lines? They have a lot of trouble from NIMBYs fighting right of way procurement and line construction.
As to the railroads the interstate highway system and airline industries drove a stake through the heart of passenger interstate rail service profitability. No amount of regulation or Nationalization will ever overcome that. As to freight rail service when it comes to ton miles delivered the railroads still beat the truckers but you do have to have enough regulation to keep some robber baron from using a choke point he controls from ripping customers off.
I certainly don't think it has been well managed in the past by either Government or private interest with private interest often manipulating government regulators against public interest.
Plenty of room for improvement.

[Shaved Monkey]

Victoria sets target of 95% of its electricity sourced from renewable energy by 2035

“One power station is closing, many smaller power stations will take its place,” Andrews said. “Those power stations won’t be for profit, they’ll be for people. They’ll be not owned by a private company. They’ll be owned by everyone. Everyone will benefit from that.”

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... gy-by-2035

[vtsnowedin]

Victoria sets target of 95% of its electricity sourced from renewable energy by 2035

“One power station is closing, many smaller power stations will take its place,” Andrews said. “Those power stations won’t be for profit, they’ll be for people. They’ll be not owned by a private company. They’ll be owned by everyone. Everyone will benefit from that.”

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... gy-by-2035

Well that is fine but I do doubt you will have cheaper energy or a more reliable supply. Hopefully they will have all those small plants up and running before they close the big bad old one.

[evilgenius]

It's very interesting how NIMBYism is so powerful. It acts in favor of the status quo. You find it even among those people whom you would assume would be backers of things, except that whatever the issue is hits a little too close.

It's going on right now, in a community, Vail, that is close by where I live. The company was going to build employee housing on a piece of property that wasn't much good for anything else. It sounded like a good idea, until the locals realized it could bring down their property values.

That's when somebody brought up the Big Horn sheep herd that likes to lick the salt off of the highway. They say that the herd needs that spot, or they will all die. There is no way to tell if the herd was always there before the road was built. There is only the anecdotal evidence of some sheep ranchers. All sorts of other developments, like a school, that wouldn't bring down property values went in close by without any problems. Nobody complained about the herd then, or it would have been an understood issue that probably would have kept the ski company from making the offer in the first place.

Now, the town is going to condemn the property, and protect the herd. The NIMBY's win! It's a good example for NIMBY's too because while the opposition is probably about 80% against because of property value dangers they get to hold up the shield of environmentalism. They come away looking all shiny, even though they are quite tarnished. Make no mistake, though, they don't want the riffraff living next door. We pay a lot for the idea of what we think we need a community to be in order for it to work. But life is marketing. The town is a brand.

You see, no one is talking about the correct response. That being that the herd was cut off from easy access to the wetlands that are on the other side of the highway. It would be too costly to expect the company to rectify the situation, by paying for a way for the sheep to access those wetlands by going under or over the highway. It was the collective decisions of the town that made it that way. It was what they needed in order for their young venture to succeed. If they wanted to rectify it, everybody would have to pay. It still might be too expensive, compared to the return that housing for a few hundred employees would provide. The town desperately needs that housing, but maybe not that desperately?

Just ask people to pay for something, if you want to know how much they really support it rather than if they are just blowing smoke. If the issue was a mine rather than an environmental thing, the owners would have to assess whether the mine would produce enough to pay for the sheep, and still make a profit beyond that. We do expect those who try such things to pay for everything themselves, even if they are correcting a problem that was brought on in the name of the people. That's just how hard it is to move from the status quo. That's how hard it can be to move on from the ideas that marketers have laid down, also, in our minds.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Victoria sets target of 95% of its electricity sourced from renewable energy by 2035

“One power station is closing, many smaller power stations will take its place,” Andrews said. “Those power stations won’t be for profit, they’ll be for people. They’ll be not owned by a private company. They’ll be owned by everyone. Everyone will benefit from that.”

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... gy-by-2035

Well that is fine but I do doubt you will have cheaper energy or a more reliable supply. Hopefully they will have all those small plants up and running before they close the big bad old one.

It seems to me that keeping the overall grid (at a national or wide regional) scale would be critical for long term reliability. It's great if many well funded local power plants become MASSIVELY more reliable than a single one, especially if they can back each other up if one has a problem. But they won't be looking out for the overall grid maintenance, unless some consortium plans for that, charges for that, and DOES THE WORK to ensure that is done well.

And sure, it might cost more. But the alternative of ignoring AGW is going to cost FAR FAR more than somewhat higher power bills (if that happens), over time. It's important to consider the big picture.

It might have been CHEAPER to keep using traditional Freon in AC units, but that was horrible for the environment, so they compromised and sunset that over time. Gradualism is needed for making huge transitions without significant chaos.

[kublikhan]

Renewables experienced yet another year of record growth in power capacity, despite aftershocks from the pandemic and a rise in global commodity prices that upset renewable energy supply chains and delayed projects. The role of renewables in improving energy security and sovereignty by replacing fossil fuels became central to discussions, as energy prices increased sharply in late 2021 and as the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine unfolded in early 2022.

Investment in renewable power and fuels rose for the fourth consecutive year, reaching USD 366 billion, and a record increase in global electricity generation led to solar and wind power providing more than 10% of the world’s electricity for the first time ever.

At the same time, diverse factors continued to slow the global shift to renewable-based energy systems. A rebound in worldwide energy demand, which increased an estimated 4% in 2021, was met largely with coal and natural gas and led to record carbon dioxide emissions (up 6%, adding more than 2 billion tonnes). Large sums also continued to be invested in and to subsidise fossil fuels, with the USD 5.9 trillion in subsidies spent in 2020 equivalent to roughly 7% of global gross domestic product. The slow progress in energy conservation, energy efficiency and renewables prevents the transition away from fossil fuels that is necessary to meet global energy demand and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A structural shift in the energy system is increasingly urgent. An energy-efficient and renewable-based economy is a game changer for a more secure, resilient, low-cost – and sustainable – energy future.

Despite supply chain disruptions, shipping delays, and surging prices for wind and solar energy components, renewable power capacity additions grew 17% in 2021 to reach a new high of more than 314 gigawatts (GW) of added capacity. The total installed renewable power capacity grew 11% to reach around 3,146 GW, although this is far from the deployment needed to keep the world on track to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

During 2021, China became the first country to exceed 1 terawatt of installed renewable energy capacity. Its total installed capacity of renewables increased 136 GW during the year, accounting for around 43% of global additions.

Renewables generated 28.3% of global electricity in 2021, similar to 2020 levels (28.5%) and up from 20.4% in 2011. Despite the progress of renewables in the power sector, the surge in global energy demand was met mostly with fossil fuels.

TRANSPORT
Transport remains the sector with the lowest share of renewable energy use, with the overwhelming contribution coming from biofuels.

In 2021, electric car sales totalled 6.6 million worldwide, more than doubling from 2020, while sales of other electric vehicles such as two- and threewheelers and buses also saw significant increases.

RENEWABLES 2022 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT

* Renewable energy installations broke new records in 2021, according to the International Energy Agency.
* And despite rising raw material costs, installations are expected to rise by 8% in 2022.
* Solar is expected to account for 60% of the increase in global renewable capacity this year.

Now the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that record to be beaten again in 2022. The IEA says 2021’s 6% growth will be followed by an 8% rise in installed capacity in 2022, led by a surge in solar power. However, progress has been uneven, with a 17% decline in new wind installations in 2021 offset by the rise in solar and hydropower.

Even if current high energy prices are maintained, the IEA says solar will retain and even increase its cost advantage over the next two years. This is despite the rising cost of raw materials used to construct renewable energy installations. In the past 12 months, the cost of polysilicon used in solar panels has more than quadrupled, says the IEA, while the price of steel rose by 50% and copper by 70%. Overall, raw material costs for all types of renewable energy were 15% to 25% higher.

These 4 charts show the state of renewable energy in 2022

[vtsnowedin]

A doubling of almost nothing is still almost nothing.
It will take decades at current installation rates for a significant amount of our energy requirements to be supplied by renewable sources.
Until that level is reached we need to keep all available fossil fuel sources of energy on line at full capacity with as much domestic production as possible.

[Plantagenet]

A doubling of almost nothing is still almost nothing.
It will take decades at current installation rates for a significant amount of our energy requirements to be supplied by renewable sources.
Until that level is reached we need to keep all available fossil fuel sources of energy on line at full capacity with as much domestic production as possible.

Its even worse then that.

While the growth of solar and other renewable energy is impressive, albeit from a low starting base, its often overlooked that the total amount of energy being consumed is still growing slowly as well.

This means that the total amount of fossil fuels being consumed is also still slowly growing.


the total amount of fossil fuels being consumed is also still slowly growing[

This is not what we want.

IMHO its been a mistake to put so much governmental policy emphasis on growing alternative energy rather then emphasizing policies that would result in cut in the use of fossil fuel in order to lower CO2 emissions.

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

IMHO its been a mistake to put so much governmental policy emphasis on growing alternative energy rather then emphasizing policies that would result in cut in the use of fossil fuel in order to lower CO2 emissions.

Cheers!

Just what policy would cut fossil fuel use to cut CO2 emissions are you considering that would not also result in a decline it total energy consumption and depress the world's economy?

[kublikhan]

We estimate that around USD 2.8 trillion will be invested in energy in 2023. More than USD 1.7 trillion is going to clean energy, including renewable power, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emission fuels, efficiency improvements and end-use renewables and electrification. The remainder, slightly over USD 1 trillion, is going to unabated fossil fuel supply and power, of which around 15% is to coal and the rest to oil and gas. For every USD 1 spent on fossil fuels, USD 1.7 is now spent on clean energy. Five years ago this ratio was 1:1.

In 2023 low-emissions power is expected to account for almost 90% of total investment in electricity generation. Solar is the star performer and more than USD 1 billion per day is expected to go into solar investments in 2023 (USD 380 billion for the year as a whole), edging this spending above that in upstream oil for the first time.

2022 was an extraordinarily profitable year for many fossil fuel companies, as they saw revenues soar on higher fuel prices. Net income from fossil fuel sales more than doubled compared with the average in recent years, with global oil and gas producers receiving around USD 4 trillion. Our overall expectation, based on analysis of the announced spending plans of all the large and medium-sized oil, gas and coal companies, is that investment in unabated fossil fuel supply is set to rise by more than 6% in 2023, reaching USD 950 billion. The largest share of this total is going to upstream oil and gas, where investment is expected to rise by 7% in 2023 to more than USD 500 billion, bringing this indicator in aggregate back to the levels of 2019. Around half this increase is likely to be absorbed by cost inflation. Many large oil and gas companies have announced higher spending plans on the back of record revenues. But uncertainties over longer-term demand, worries about costs, and pressure from many investors and owners to focus on returns rather than production growth mean only large Middle Eastern national oil companies are spending much more in 2023 than they did in 2022, and they are the only subset of the industry spending more than pre-pandemic levels. The headline rise in spending on new oil and gas supply represents less than half of the cash flow that was available to the oil and gas industry. Between 2010 and 2019, three-quarters of cash outflows were typically invested into new supply. This is now less than half, with the majority going to dividends, share buybacks and debt repayment.

World Energy Investment 2023

Code: Select all

share of global renewable electricity generation
year  percent of total electricity generation
2012  12%
2022  30%

In total, 348 GW of renewable power capacity was added in 2022 (up 13% from the 306 GW added in 2021); however, this annual capacity addition would need to be accelerated by as much as 2.5 times to achieve the capacity growth required to achieve the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) scenario for net zero emissions by 2030. solar PV had another record year in 2022, with additions rising 37% compared to 2021 (up 25% for utility-scale solar PV and 54% for decentralised solar PV); however, to reach the IEA target, the current rate the annual installation needs to double in 2030.

RENEWABLES 2023 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT

Global [coal] demand reached an all-time high in 2022. Consumption rose strongly in India (10%) and in Europe (5%) in response to electricity generating facilities substituting away from natural gas and filling the supply gap created by weaker production from other sources, including nuclear and hydro. Consumption in China rose modestly, as economic growth remained sluggish due to COVID-19 restrictions. On the other hand, coal consumption in the United States decreased by 8% in 2022Q4 due to less significant natural gas price increases compared to Europe. This limited the substitution between coal and gas for electricity generation in the U.S.

Declining coal prices reflect a reshaping of global energy trade

[theluckycountry]

Clean energy, rebuildable power generation, is a dead-end, that should be clear to any thinking person by now.
All built at great cost from oil and coal, all with design lives or 10 and 20 years
And worse still is that they sprawl all over the countryside
And everywhere they go thousands of earth movers and concrete trucks go too, to build the roads, to clear the ground, and to build the bases for them, mountains of concrete for Wind.

Then there is the cleanup! Hardly any of the decommissioned units are recyclable. Mountains of solar panels and wind turbine blades are piling up all over the planet. Only an complete idiot would advocate clean energy after seeing all this. An idiot, or someone getting paid to ignore it. I'm no fan of Nuclear but it's the only viable option going forward.

[Shaved Monkey]

China hopes to be 33% renewables by 2025
They already have twice the wind and solar power of the US
Invested 400% more on renewables than the US
They produce 75% of the globes solar panels and 57% of the worlds EVs



https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202306/1293287.shtml

[theluckycountry]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTDU8MZRYw

[AdamB]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgMQDyTTiko

[Shaved Monkey]

The world's largest 16-megawatt offshore wind turbine was successfully installed off the coast of East China's Fujian Province on Wednesday and is about to be put into commercial operation soon, marking an important breakthrough in China's offshore wind power production in high-end equipment manufacturing capacity and far-reaching offshore wind power construction capacity.
CTG's 16-megawatt offshore wind turbine was designed to move from technological innovation to large-scale commercial application, Liu said, revealing that CTG Fujian plans to install another seven 16-megawatt offshore wind turbines in the Zhangpu county along the coast of Fujian Province by 2024, and gradually promote mass production.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202306/1293347.shtml

These seem to be all Chinese designed/manufactured from the bearings to "miniaturised" motors.

[AdamB]

The exceptional continue doing their thing...

U.S. LNG export capacity to grow as three additional projects begin construction

while others lanquish....

Australia considers curbing LNG exports, risking international claims by foreign investors

[ralfy]

A global capitalist and competitive economy needs increasing energy quantity and quality in a biosphere with physical limitations.

https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/howmuchenergy/

[AdamB]

A global capitalist and competitive economy needs increasing energy quantity and quality in a biosphere with physical limitations.

Check.

[kublikhan]

Rolling blackouts, freezing homes and skyrocketing electricity prices. A few decades ago, power outages in vast swathes of the United States were relatively rare and would normally be seen as black swan events. Unfortunately, mass blackouts have now become a regular feature of modern American life. Power outages have increased 64% from the early 2000s while weather-related outages have soared 78%. According to one analysis, the United States now records more power outages than any other developed country, with people living in the upper Midwest losing power for an average of 92 minutes every year compared to just 4 minutes in Japan.

Climate change and extreme weather events are largely to blame for this sad state of affairs. But the U.S. is not an exceptional case, with Europe feeling the adverse effects of a rapidly changing climate just as keenly as, if not worse than, the U.S. A closer look at the problem reveals that one fuel could be at the center of the conundrum: natural gas. Over the past two decades, the shale revolution unlocked a deluge of cheap natural gas, and made it easier for the country to transition from coal-fired generation to natural gas plants. Indeed, natural gas is widely touted as the ‘bridge fuel’ as the world gradually moves away from coal as the primary fuel used to generate electricity to renewables thanks to natural gas having a much cleaner emissions profile than coal. Gas now makes up ~41% of U.S. power generation, more than double its share in Europe’s energy mix at 19.6%.

The harsh reality is that natural gas plants, even relatively modern ones, are proving to have the worst failure rate when faced with extreme weather compared with other generation methods. During last year’s Arctic Blast, gas units accounted for 63% of the failures while representing just 44% of the total installed capacity. The country’s vast network of gas plants and pipelines--the largest in the world--and the regulations that govern them simply were never designed or built without the realities of extreme weather in mind. Gas facilities aren’t uniformly winterized, with many relying on single gas pipelines for supply. Meanwhile, many generators lack the ability to burn an alternate fuel or keep back-up gas on hand in case of emergencies. More alarmingly, even the best gas generating facilities are showing a large degree of vulnerability. During the winter blast on Dec. 23, 2022, PJM called a “maximum generation emergency action,” meaning standby plants were supposed to run ramp up to full power. Whereas nearly 20% of those gas plants ran at 100% or more for at least an hour, more than 20% never got above even half capacity while many dropped to 0% output at some point during the emergency. PJM spokesperson Susan Buehler has conceded that generation performance during the storm “was not acceptable,” and added, “What we need, and what we are working on with all of our stakeholders, regulators and policymakers, is for all of our resources to perform when called upon.” During the crisis, a large number of new-model combined-cycle gas plants failed, with some reporting mechanical issues, failures to start due to according to people familiar with the operations and official filings. Others couldn’t get the fuel frozen wells, falling pipe pressure or compressor station failures. Others failed to get gas because they are supplied by utility pipelines that prioritize households and businesses first. “That’s a crisis that’s coming. It’s coming a lot closer and a lot nearer and a lot faster than even I thought a year ago when I first said we’re facing a reliability crisis,’’ Mark Christie, a member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, has told Bloomberg.

Why The U.S. Has Become The Blackout Capital Of The Developed World