[AdamB]

Unfortunate that Bentley chose to pitch in recently with Laherrere and Hall doing the run of the mill Happy McPeakster routine here recently in Environmental Sustainability or some such "gee can I please not be reviewed by experts in the field" pub.

You are being near impossible to parse again, Adam.

Apologies. And I finally got a response to stick on that excellent reference you provided.

Because I'm kind of persistent, I figured that Environmental Sustainability is a peer-reviewed scientific journal (definitely the opposite of "gee can I please not be reviewed by experts") and that you are referring to this paper:
https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/p ... 0727185300

Environmental Sustainability isn't the place you find resource economists, petroleum engineer or petroleum geologists, mathematical geology specialists or top notch geologists in general. Nothing wrong with a powder puff review team, when you certainly don't want someone to knows something on the topic to get a look at it.

Thanks for the clouded reference, but is it too much to ask that you give up on your "peak oil isn't happening" badass attitude? Since you obviously don't believe in it?

Peak oil HAS happened. Again. In 2018. Peak oil is a given, I've said it before, following Hubert's math and logic as he described it in his 1956 seminal work. That doesn't appear to be good enough for some folks, but it is true. The correct answer to all of this was just to solve the problem of course. Can someone who builds peak oil models be considered a non-peak oiler?

[theluckycountry]

Reading if Germanys “oh shit” response to the Russian threat to close Nordstream 1 it sounds like they are NOW acutely aware of resource depletion effects.

If it's one thing the Fuhrer was aware of, it was resources.

[Doly]

Environmental Sustainability isn't the place you find resource economists, petroleum engineer or petroleum geologists, mathematical geology specialists or top notch geologists in general.

I wouldn't trust a resource economist to say anything sensible, unless we are talking about someone writing at the latest in the first half of the 20th century. After that, all well-known economists seem to have been completely captured by the ideology of rich people in rich nations.

As for geologists, a number of peak oilers are petroleum geologists, including Laherrere himself. Are you saying he isn't top notch? If so, why?

[AdamB]

Environmental Sustainability isn't the place you find resource economists, petroleum engineer or petroleum geologists, mathematical geology specialists or top notch geologists in general.

I wouldn't trust a resource economist to say anything sensible, unless we are talking about someone writing at the latest in the first half of the 20th century.

Interesting. Resource economists were smart enough to know that peak oilers were a bunch of cranks, hell I've got a good reference that says even geologists who studied the basics of resource economics knew more about peak oil than the alleged peak oil experts.

The supply/demand/price relationship isn't that hard to understand, maybe you can explain why Phd's like Campbell couldn't be bothered to learn enough about it along the way to not come out of claims with egg on their face?

After that, all well-known economists seem to have been completely captured by the ideology of rich people in rich nations.

I don't tend to credit economists in general, but more often resource economists. But understanding general economic concepts is critical to understanding how peak oil could happen, and the consequences thereof. I've always been amazed that peak oilers in general couldn't be bothered to even attempt such understanding, but the eggheaded types not doing it is just...wrong. Maybe it's that polymath thing? They aren't?

As for geologists, a number of peak oilers are petroleum geologists, including Laherrere himself. Are you saying he isn't top notch? If so, why?

Oh, I have no doubt that Campbell and Laherrere (Campbell is certainly a geologist, I thought Jean was more on the petrophysics side?) are qualified in terms of they went to college, learned stuff, applied it professionally, etc etc.

I am saying that they managed to DISQUALIFY themselves through blurting out an answer that was wrong, never learned from their mistakes, and just kept doing the same thing over and over, hoping that they'd finally get it right (like Hubbert was thought to have done) through luck if nothing else, and receive all the accolades they hoped for.

Nothing to do with science, the stunt those two have been pulling since the 90's. You do understand how learning is one of those things a real scientist is supposed to be capable of, right? And doing the same stupid crap over and over expecting a different result is...well....meme alert!

[Newfie]

Ooops, water.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-town-d ... -out-water

[C8]

Oh, I have no doubt that Campbell and Laherrere (Campbell is certainly a geologist, I thought Jean was more on the petrophysics side?) are qualified in terms of they went to college, learned stuff, applied it professionally, etc etc.

I am saying that they managed to DISQUALIFY themselves through blurting out an answer that was wrong, never learned from their mistakes, and just kept doing the same thing over and over, hoping that they'd finally get it right (like Hubbert was thought to have done) through luck if nothing else, and receive all the accolades they hoped for.

Nothing to do with science, the stunt those two have been pulling since the 90's. You do understand how learning is one of those things a real scientist is supposed to be capable of, right? And doing the same stupid crap over and over expecting a different result is...well....meme alert!

Then you also have to disqualify all those climate "scientists" who created crazy predictions that never came true (about 99% of them). Disqualify Al Gore also for all his wrong predictions.

You also need to disqualify all those experts who said renewable energy was going to progress far more than it has over the last 20 years.

Because, if someone gets a date wrong in their predictions that means they are disqualified as experts. The general theory doesn't matter- just the predictions, that's all!

But strangely, I don't hear you disqualifying climate scientists and renewable energy experts all the time- I... wonder... why?

[C8]

Angry Lebanese protesters storm bakeries amid deepening economic crisis
‘The state is bankrupt’ amid crises in food, energy, electricity

https://allarab.news/angry-lebanese-pro ... ic-crisis/

Much of the population of the third world has exploded based on UN food programs and western donations. But human nature is unchanged and don't be surprised if the West doesn't increase its aid. For those who think this is due to Ukraine, consider this: over 40% of all grain produced by the US goes to animals for meat. We could easily make up the difference in grain shortfall by eating a few fewer burgers- but we WON"T. Human nature is unchanged: it's "me" first all the time. And the poor? Given extra food, they will just have more babies- its God's will!

[C8]

'White people will be the first target': South Africa's Julius Malema warns of impending 'violence' because 'the poor are getting poorer'
Opposition figure warns of impending uprising in Africa's richest country
Julius Malema said there would be an 'Arab Spring' with white people targeted
Demanded immediate intervention by ruling ANC to improve living conditions
South Africa is struggling with high inflation and high unemployment

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... lence.html

Multiculturalism only works when times are good

[AdamB]

I am saying that they managed to DISQUALIFY themselves through blurting out an answer that was wrong, never learned from their mistakes, and just kept doing the same thing over and over, hoping that they'd finally get it right (like Hubbert was thought to have done) through luck if nothing else, and receive all the accolades they hoped for.

Then you also have to disqualify all those climate "scientists" who created crazy predictions that never came true (about 99% of them). Disqualify Al Gore also for all his wrong predictions.

It seems logical that when climate folks have misfired (Ehrlich springs to mind), they no longer get the benefit of a doubt than the McPeaksters have. Particularly in regard to having assigned a date and then it turns out...oops.

You understand that the McPeaksters are ultimately right about there being a peak oil though, as that part of the narrative is axiomatic? Climate change isn't quite that definitive, as it has happened before, of course it will happen again, and the core of the argument is the human influence on a naturally changing system.

You also need to disqualify all those experts who said renewable energy was going to progress far more than it has over the last 20 years.

Sounds reasonable. Do we discount those who also claimed some renewable wouldn't happen barely at all, when in fact it did? Those who underestimated solar and wind buildout for example, or claimed it wouldn't happen?

But strangely, I don't hear you disqualifying climate scientists and renewable energy experts all the time- I... wonder... why?

I am neither professionally involved nor personally interested with the quality or reliability of climate change folks. Except in two cases, one being the McPeaksters who just fled to another Rapture mechanism when peak didn't work out, and the second is the occasionally visible and shoddy data collection and interpretation that discredits some piece of individual work or another. Be it pro or con.

[C8]

More than 1,000 migrants arrive in Italy within hours, authorities say

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2022 ... rities-say

Its easy to be tolerant and virtue signaling when your comfortable and rich- but what will the West do when it is overrun?

[Newfie]

You mean when the “Woke” awake?

[AdamB]

More than 1,000 migrants arrive in Italy within hours, authorities say

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2022 ... rities-say

Its easy to be tolerant and virtue signaling when your comfortable and rich- but what will the West do when it is overrun?

The "West" in general might be overrun, but not North America as a "west". The Canadians will help us defend our southern border if necessary. But it shouldn't, after all, they don't mind being our colony because they can be secure in their southern border for as long as 'MURIKA! is around. If the world's strongest military can't hold it, they would chip in though, as a matter of self interest.

[theluckycountry]

You used to have to sail down there and bring them back in chains, Oh how times have changed. We let a share in here but they are well vetted, the crime they commit is minuscule compared to other elements of Australian society. You want to keep illegals out, live on an Island with shark infested coasts.

[AdamB]

You want to keep illegals out, live on an Island with shark infested coasts.

Or be so notoriously incompetent as a country that you can't even build a car. When the top of the food chain is banana bending, why would an illegal want to go there when they are aiming for a good job requiring a brain, like fast food worker or brick laying?

[Doly]

Or be so notoriously incompetent as a country that you can't even build a car.

Cars are very high tech these days, with all sorts of electronics and sophisticated engines. And actually, no country can build a car these days, because the parts always come from all over the world.

[AdamB]

Or be so notoriously incompetent as a country that you can't even build a car.

Cars are very high tech these days, with all sorts of electronics and sophisticated engines.

Indeed. Computers on wheels. Those aren't the kind I'm talking about, but the old school ones. Bolt an engine into a frame, slap some tires, seats and a roof on it, fill it with irreplaceable liquid fuels and motor away.

And actually, no country can build a car these days, because the parts always come from all over the world.

In many cases, but countries with companies utilizing labor with hopefully firing neurons are the ones who can design those parts, get them ordered, schedule the delivery to a factory, bolt everything together, and then a consumer can drive it a couple hundred thousand miles. Can you imagine countries not having a company that can even do that?

[C8]

Britain will plunge into a year-long recession this autumn in which households will be hit by the deepest fall in living standards on record, the Bank of England has warned.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 38062.html

Europe is getting hammered

[C8]

Germany fears MILLIONS of houses will be left without heating this winter as low pressure in gas pipelines due to Putin cutting supplies causes breakdowns
Russia has reduced gas supplies into Europe in retaliation for sanctions
In addition to gas prices rising, this has meant there is less pressure in pipes
German officials fear this could cause some households to be cut off entirely
To fix the issue work would have to done to reconnect them, and could take days

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... inter.html

I wonder if portable heating would be a better route. Maybe little kerosene units to heat a limited number of rooms. No matter how you slice it, central heat is very wasteful.

[jato0072]

Cars are very high tech these days, with all sorts of electronics and sophisticated engines. And actually, no country can build a car these days, because the parts always come from all over the world.

Easy to make. Easy to source raw materials. No computers required. All that is needed is for government regulation to get out of the way.

[AdamB]

Easy to make. Easy to source raw materials. No computers required. All that is needed is for government regulation to get out of the way.

The days of no seatbelts or airbags or anti-lock brakes or baffles in the fuel tank to keep cars from detonating
like grenades, MAN I miss'em!! Oh, all the while carrying unapproved containers full of gasoline in the trunk in case we run out, cranking out unburned hydrocarbons and contributing to city skylines that can't be seen through, the good ol' days!

I say we go all the way, let folks drive themselves home after a nice drunken graduation bash or just a regular Friday night of line dancing and putting away a gallon of beer at the local ho-down!

i own old "normal" cars, with designs and engines and capabilities dating back into the 80's and 90's. I own modern wonder machines that don't need gasoline and can keep themselves in their lane without any help from me, auto this and that, really nice radios, like they have Sirius and stuff versus..get this....cassette tapes and just AM/FM!!

I can see there being a middle ground somewhere, a modern VW bug, minimal everything, fixable on the side of road (Dad did an engine once that way on his VW camper van), maybe more modern fuel intake to minimize emissions from the old carbs, enough protection to keep folks alive at least lower speeds, although all bets are off if they allow monster trucks with hoods 5' off the ground to continue mixing with these more reasonble means of transport. I like the idea of something simple, but something simple on today's roads isn't the same thing as the 50's and 60's.