[mousepad]

I'll be very impressed if Joe Biden screws things up enough to get us up to $200 bbl oil.

That would be one good thing the demwits did. Let's hope it happens.

The second coming of $100/bbl oil has been bad enough.

Despite your $100, I still have a hard time ordering silicon wafers from fabs both far and near. Record waiting time, record prices. No inventory to sell, but order books full. So far your recession is disappointing. Maybe $200 oil will slow it down and easy up on crazyness. Let's hope for the best.

I can't even imagine what the economy will be like if Joe Biden's senility and incompetence screws things up so bad we get to $200/bbl oil.

It will be great. No more crazy housing development in my area. Less traffic. Less waiting in congested airports.
Man, do I look forward to it.

What's Joe Biden screwed up now.....omigosh......Joe Biden did....THAT!!!?!?!?!??!

Joe and the dems are dumfucks I have never seen before, no doubt. But if Joey achieves $200, at least he did one thing right.

[Plantagenet]

Any similarities between the Democratic Party today and the Democratic Party of 20 years ago, let alone the Democratic Party of historical times, are mostly coincidence.

Nonetheless, history is a valuable thing to study because the same problems keep recurring again and again and many of the same topics that played a big role in American history are still with us today.

For instance, there is a lot of talk in the US today about slavery and about whether or not black people deserve reparations for slavery.

Personally, I don't think blacks should get reparations for slavery because there are no people alive today who were ever personally slaves. People who were held as slaves would obviously have a right to sue the slaveholders and the governments of those states that allowed slavery....but the victims of slavery are all dead now

However.....how about black people getting reparations for racial segregation? There is a much better legal case to be made for that, because there many people still alive today who were negatively affected by the legal discrimination, including racist segregated schools, that the Democratic Party advocated and passed into law in the southern US states and a few other racist places elsewhere around the country where racism was strong and segregation existed, like Boston. Also, the US government workforce used to be largely segregated because of the policies introduced by Wilson and the Ds in the early part of the 20th century.

IMHO it would make a lot more sense for a group of black people who were personally and directly affected by the racist policies of the democratic party, which continued up through the middle of the 20th century, to directly sue the democratic party rather then waiting to get money from the entire country.......Because the entire country didn't mandate segregation and discrimination.....these were all policies promoted by the racists in the Democratic Party and passed into law in only those states controlled by the Democratic party. The Democratic party has deep pockets and a lawsuit by people who were PERSONALLY affected by the racist laws enacted by the Ds would have a very good legal case fora class action lawsuit to get reparations for past discrimination, IMHO.


The racist D party enacted laws requiring racial segregation in many states.....I think the surviving victims of these racist laws should get together and file a mass action suit and fight for damages from the Democratic party


Laws requiring racial segregation were passed by the racists in the D party in many southern states and remained in place up into the 1960s.. IMHO people who were personally victims of these laws and are still alive today should file a class action lawsuit against the Democratic party and sue for damages.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

The Democratic Party was the party of the traitors who seceded and started the confederacy.

Any similarities between the Democratic Party today and the Democratic Party of 20 years ago, let alone the Democratic Party of historical times, are mostly coincidence.

Sounds about the same for the Republicrats. Trump sure put his stamp on adding the "bat shit crazy" component to the Republicrat party though.

[Plantagenet]

still have a hard time ordering silicon wafers from fabs both far and near. Record waiting time, record prices. No inventory to sell, but order books full. So far your recession is disappointing.....

So you can't manufacture inventory due to supply chain problems (which Joe Biden said he would personally fix last year) and when you can buy something its at record prices, fueling more inflation.

But you don't think a recession is coming.........

Lets look at the numbers here.....how much money are you going to make if you can't manufacture and sell your products?



How many employees will you have to let go if you can't manufacture and sell your products?

And is your business unique? Or do other businesses have similar problems right now?

Sounds like a recipe for a recession to me.

Cheers!

[mousepad]

Sounds like a recipe for a recession to me.

you make it sound like it's a bad thing. Consider the benefits:

1. lower cost for micro chips, empty fabs scrambling to find business
2. easier to hire talent, picking up laid off workers on the cheap
3. less traffic
4. less construction
5. lower rent for business space
6. no more obnoxious bitcoin bros bragging
7. lower prices on gas and other items

It will be great. It almost looks like that your recession could lead to another boom time, it looks very promising to me. I honestly can't see anything negative about all this. Can you?

Look, I found a picture, too. I'm not a woman, but you get the drift.

[Plantagenet]

I honestly can't see anything negative about all this. Can you?
Look, I found a picture, too.

Good to know you are sold on the positive aspects of recessions.

How about the witchcraft trials? Are you a big supporter of those too?


How about the witchcraft trials? Are you a big supporter of those too?

[AdamB]

China’s state-owned oil refining giants are speeding up purchases of Russian crude, citing the allure of cheap cargoes from the OPEC+ producer as demand recovered after Covid Zero was ditched.
China’s Oil Giants Want More Russian Crude

[Outcast_Searcher]

China’s state-owned oil refining giants are speeding up purchases of Russian crude, citing the allure of cheap cargoes from the OPEC+ producer as demand recovered after Covid Zero was ditched.
China’s Oil Giants Want More Russian Crude

So one country's atrocities are another country's BAU.

Given how sensitive China gets about a US political visit to Taiwan, one can only imagine its reaction when sometime Russia does something aggressive about an entity China decides to care about.

[ROCKMAN]

Not just oil: Russia started selling natural gas to China at the end of 2019 via the Power of Siberia pipeline, which supplied about 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2021 and is due to reach its full capacity of 38 bcm in 2025.Dec 21, 2022. This pipeline was a response to the EU pissing on Russia years ago as well as the Ukraine stealing NG that transited thru to the EU. The EU demanded that pay only what flowed thru its meters and not those a the Russia/Ukraine border. And how did this new pipeline affect the EU:

In 2021, Russia was supplying EU countries with 40% of their natural gas, with Germany the largest importer, followed by Italy and the Netherlands. That had dropped to around 17% by August 2022, according to EU figures. In 2021, the UK got just 4% of its gas supply from Russia. How much: Russia exported natural gas supplies in 2021 that based on prices at the time, brought in an estimated $55.5 billion.

Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter. It exported 238 billion cubic meters in 2020. according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

Lots of maps to check out:

https://www.google.com/search?q=russia+ ... =657&dpr=1

[Plantagenet]

Biden's plan done in conjunction with the EU to sanction Russian oil exports has been a farce and an abysmal failure.

biden-signs-russia-sanctions

The reason is clear.......Biden and the EU are unwilling to take the steps necessary to truly sanction Russian oil exports.

Russia has totally circumvented the sanctions put in place by the US and the EU by switching to exporting oil and NG to China and to a much lesser degree to India, who then benefit from cheap Russian oil for their own economies. In addition, India and China have suddenly become oil exporters because they are re-exporting Russian oil out into the world market where it is sold freely as though it wasn't Russian oil, even to countries in the EU who are supposedly sanctioning Russian oil.

If Biden and the EU really wanted to sanction Russian oil, they would have responded by putting sanctions on the Indian and Chinese and EU companies that are currently buying and using Russian oil-----but Biden and the EU didn't take that necessary step, leaving China and India free to buy Russian oil and re-export Russian oil and other countries....including countries in the EU itself free to buy Russian oil as long as it goes through China first..



Cheers!

[Tuike]

Forget Peak Oil Demand: A Thirst for Barrels Puts $100 in View -yahoo/bloomberg
It all comes down to China: The world’s second-biggest oil consumer is snapping up crude after reversing its strict Covid-19 policies. Against a backdrop of tight supply, the demand boost has everyone from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to trading powerhouse Vitol Group predicting a rally to $100 a barrel later this year. By the second half of the year, analysts say, the market will face a shortage — a scenario that will loom over the industry leaders meeting this week in Houston for CERAWeek by S&P Global, a major annual energy conference.

If there is a liquid energy shortage later this year, perhaps more posts will appear to po.com.

[AdamB]

If there is a liquid energy shortage later this year, perhaps more posts will appear to po.com.

Certainly would be nice....5 years after peak oil...for something remotely resembling peak oil to FINALLY show up. Some of us have been waiting nearly 20 years now for peak oil to be more than a geoscientists joke about how poorly the general population knows much on the topic. Some of us have moved on from worrying about it with our EVs and whatnot, but there are so many out there still happily using ICE powered antiques, boy are THEY going to be irritated should even a HINT of shortage appear.

[Plantagenet]

Against a backdrop of tight supply, the demand boost has everyone from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to trading powerhouse Vitol Group predicting a rally to $100 a barrel later this year. By the second half of the year, analysts say, the market will face a shortage —[/i]

I saw that report from Goldman Sachs saying the world oil supply is getting tight again and oil prices would head back up over $100/bbl by next fall.

Goldman-Sachs-Warns-Of-An-Imminent-Oil-Supply-Shortage

Personally, I don't worry much about that anymore.

If there is another oil shortage I'm confident Joe Biden will fix the problem. He will simply tap the US strategic petroleum reserve again and pump however much oil is needed to meet global oil demand and keep oil prices low and his political poll numbers high.


Joe Biden has proven he is the master of global oil prices. If oil supply gets tight and oil prices go up again, Joe Biden will pump oil from the SPR until oil prices come down again, just like he did in 2022.

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

Well it has to go over 100 eventually, inflation dictates that, pure and simple. We're on the rollercoaster ken Deffeys spoke of in the early 00's. He was the only one, or one of the only ones, that understood what would happen after the peak of conventional oil. Up and down, Up and down, price volatility till underverse come.

[mousepad]

ken Deffeys spoke of in the early 00's. He was the only one, or one of the only ones, that understood what would happen after the peak of conventional oil. Up and down, Up and down, price volatility till underverse come.

Up and down has nothing to do with peak of conventional. Here's historical oil price chart. You notice up and down. That's been the name of the game since forever.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude- ... tory-chart

[AdamB]

Well it has to go over 100 eventually, inflation dictates that, pure and simple.

It has before. It will again. Good news being that high oil prices tends to cure high oil prices. Good thing peak oil 5 years ago didn't seem to even get noticed in the consuming world, those Happy McPeaksters are probably pretty cheesed about that, after waiting for the Blessed Event since 1990.

We're on the rollercoaster ken Deffeys spoke of in the early 00's.

I'm not convinced Deffeyes knew the difference between a rollercoaster and the most basic economic principles related to how oil prices work. But at least he was exceptional in his area of geology....which wasn't petroleum geology.

He was the only one, or one of the only ones, that understood what would happen after the peak of conventional oil. Up and down, Up and down, price volatility till underverse come.

He was as ignorant of the forces governing peak oil as Australians are in how to build a ferris wheel. But he is famous in that the day after Thanksgiving 2005, in a meeting with geoscientists who did know something about petroleum geology, I learned that this concept existed. And just like that, a thorn in the side of The Church of Peak was born. Those geoscientists were laughing at how gas stations were open that morning, yucking it up, etc etc. It took me a month or six to understand what was so funny. After that, it was just obvious.

[theluckycountry]

Up and down has nothing to do with peak of conventional. Here's historical oil price chart.

The price of oil shown is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and is shown by default on a logarithmic scale.

HaHaHa Do you work as a statistician for the government or something mousepad? If that chart hadn't matched your opinion would you have sought one out that was hedonically adjusted as well?

Here, try this one, but it's still adjusted for inflation.



Or the basic dollar price chart.



Inflation adjusted measures don't accurately apply to everything you know. Back in 1970 you didn't have two working parent households and the households weren't burdened by massive debts. Also the entire decade of the 1970's saw enormous growth in wages (here at least) which essentially neutralized that huge inflation spike in oil.

And what was that 1970's spike? America's own peak in oil production of course, just as Hubbard predicted. From that point on your whole civilization began to run down because the money stopped flowing in and began flowing out to Saudi Arabia and the like. Australian oil production peaked in 2001, but it was a false peak, like the Russian peak. We still have oceans of conventional oil in the center of Australia, we just aren't burning it like you did yours.

Were Australian's paying super high prices back then in the 70's too? No, the exchange rate meant we were buying petrol at around the same price basically. Even our oil is priced in $US but when the price of oil goes up, so does the value of our currency against yours. Our petrol prices today are the same as they were a decade ago too.



The run-up in oil from 2000 to 2008 was what basically killed the global economy. If it wasn't for the creation of massive housing bubbles and the concomitant infusion of 'new' debt money into the economy we would never have recovered. That's a far cry from the minor upset of the 1980's. That's the power of high oil prices, the power of depletion.

[AdamB]

Here, try this one, but it's still adjusted for inflation.

Sorry, but it doesn't show the high price of oil prior to 1940, it is censored, in order to make a doomer point most likely.

Real crude oil prices since 1861, showing how it was quite expensive, for a long time. Took awhile for those exceptional Americans to get the technology worked out to give the world cheap oil.

The run-up in oil from 2000 to 2008 was what basically killed the global economy. If it wasn't for the creation of massive housing bubbles and the concomitant infusion of 'new' debt money into the economy we would never have recovered. That's a far cry from the minor upset of the 1980's. That's the power of high oil prices, the power of depletion.

You couldn't define depletion of oil or gas with a dictionary, because it would require you to both read and think.

Global GDP growth since 1997, for those who don't know what depletion is, or the difference between growth in GDP and whatever "killed" means to acolytes in the Church O' Doom who can't find facts with two hands, a flashlight and the internet.

[mousepad]

HaHaHa Do you work as a statistician for the government or something mousepad? If that chart hadn't matched your opinion would you have sought one out that was hedonically adjusted as well?

Here, try this one, but it's still adjusted for inflation.

Your chart is simply more low-pass filtered (= averaged) than mine. If you filter more, you can get rid of any peak and any fluctuation. Is that what you want to do?
Not sure how this should proof your point regarding peak in conventional causes ups and downs in oil price.

I'm also confused about the rest of your rant. What the hell has it to do with your claim of conventional peak causing ups and downs?
You need system control theory for that. That's heavy duty engineering. Here's the math:
https://eng.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Industrial_and_Systems_Engineering/Book%3A_Introduction_to_Control_Systems_(Iqbal)/04%3A_Control_System_Design_Objectives/4.01%3A_Stability_of_the_Closed-Loop_System

Also the entire decade of the 1970's saw enormous growth in wages (here at least) which essentially neutralized that huge inflation spike in oil.

That's weird. You guys always claim high oil prices cause recession & stuff. Now all of a sudden it caused enormous growth in wages?

[kublikhan]

Were Australian's paying super high prices back then in the 70's too? No, the exchange rate meant we were buying petrol at around the same price basically.

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge. Oil prices in Australia dollars went up six fold in the 70s.


OIL PRICES AND THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY