[Tanada]

By what can only be called a coincidence data from NSIDC shows that the Arctic Sea Ice Maximum for 2022 was on 2/25/2022 the same day of the Antarctic new record minimum.
In the Arctic case this years max is just above the trend line for 2011-2020 so is well within the statistical noise of the recent past. It is higher, but not anywhere near a record high with satellite measurement showing 14,875,000 km^2 extent.
NSIDC Arctic default chart

Using the same chart the all time Satellite extent record was set on 3/2/1979 and clocked in with 16,593,000 km^2 sea ice. At this point there is no significant down trend yet in evidence so guessing a minimum for 2022 would be pure speculation.

[Tanada]

https://nsidc.org/data/tools/arctic-sea-ice-chart/

For the last two months we have been at or below the average numbers for this time of year.

[Newfie]

Thanks for posting.

[JuanP]

The latest NSIDC report is out:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

"Average Arctic Sea ice extent for May 2022 was 12.88 million square kilometers (4.97 million square miles) (Figure 1). This was 410,000 square kilometers (158,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average, yet it was the highest May extent since 2013. As was the case for April, sea ice extent was slow to decline, losing only 1.28 million square kilometers (494,000 square miles) during the month. Ice loss in May occurred primarily in the Bering Sea, the Barents Sea, and within Baffin Bay and Davis Strait. However, several openings, or polynyas, in the pack ice have started to form, particularly within the eastern Beaufort Sea, the Chukchi Sea, the Laptev Sea, and around Franz Joseph Land in the northern Barents Sea. Ice also started to pull back from the shores of Russia in the Kara Sea. In Hudson Bay, the ice started to melt out in the south within James Bay and off of Southampton Island in the north. Overall, the daily sea ice extent tracked within the interdecile range (encompassing 90 percent of the 1981 to 2010 daily values) for much of the month. By the end of the month, extent was close to the sea ice extent observed in late May 2012."

Right now, the artic sea ice extent is very slightly below the same date in 2012 (essentially the same), the year of the all-time low. But, of course, we are talking about much thinner ice.

[Tanada]

Average Arctic sea ice extent for May 2022 was 12.88 million square kilometers (4.97 million square miles) (Figure 1). This was 410,000 square kilometers (158,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average, yet it was the highest May extent since 2013. As was the case for April, sea ice extent was slow to decline, losing only 1.28 million square kilometers (494,000 square miles) during the month. Ice loss in May occurred primarily in the Bering Sea, the Barents Sea, and within Baffin Bay and Davis Strait. However, several openings, or polynyas, in the pack ice have started to form, particularly within the eastern Beaufort Sea, the Chukchi Sea, the Laptev Sea, and around Franz Joseph Land in the northern Barents Sea. Ice also started to pull back from the shores of Russia in the Kara Sea. In Hudson Bay, the ice started to melt out in the south within James Bay and off of Southampton Island in the north. Overall, the daily sea ice extent tracked within the interdecile range (encompassing 90 percent of the 1981 to 2010 daily values) for much of the month. By the end of the month, extent was close to the sea ice extent observed in late May 2012.

NSIDC

[Tuike]

How was Arctic sea ice this melting season? Our president tweeted this today.

This should be a warning sign. Here, the edge of the Langjokull glacier has retreated about a 100 meters since 2020. I’ve often stated: “If we lose the Arctic, we lose the globe.”

https://twitter.com/niinisto/status/1583081845415370752

[Plantagenet]

I sailed through the Northwest Passage route across Arctic Canada in mid-September.....at the place where the Franklin Expedition was frozen into the sea for two straight years there wasn't even a hint of sea ice now.....the Northwest Passage is now wide open for ship passage at the very end of the summer. . Even farther north near Devon Island and Baffin Island the sea ice was almost entirely gone.

And at Beechy Island, where 3 members of the Franklin crew lie buried in the permasfrost, we had sunny weather and temperatures in the 50s.


at Beechy Island 3 members of the Franklin crew were buried and have been frozen and preserved in the permafrost for the last 170 years....but it was sunny and in the 50s and more then warm enough to thaw permafrost when I was there a few weeks ago.

ON a global basis the summer is now over and the sea ice has now started refreezing and sea ice extent is growing again.

interactive-sea-ice-graph

Cheers!

[evilgenius]

There is a great deal of hope in how the numbers during the pandemic reflect less ice loss in the Arctic. It means we have, potentially, more time than we thought because we might be able to reverse things even if they get worse. Starting the EV revolution now is not a bad idea. I would prefer to wait for solid state batteries to come along, so that far fewer people die in battery caused fires, but do we have time? We may. It could be what the charts are showing.

[jawagord]

Poor old Greenland ice seems to have fallen off the ice map. Good news still accumulating!

http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

[theluckycountry]

Interesting, it seems that the poles take turns in extending their overall melt losses.

June 5 2023 The seasonal decline in Arctic sea ice extent was moderate through much of May before picking up pace over the last few days of the month. Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice extent remained far below previous satellite-era record lows for this time of year.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Average Arctic sea ice extent was the thirteenth lowest May in the satellite record, which is a win for the region and above the record low May extent, which occurred in 2016.

Most of the Arctic Ocean in May was dominated by below average sea level pressure, as much as 10 millibars below average north of the Laptev Sea (Figure 2b). This type of pattern is known to be generally associated with below average air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean.

So there is no doubt, local weather systems can effect ice loss in a big way. I look at the long term trends though and there is no doubt in my mind that the planet's ice is vanishing at a "geologically" alarming rate. This is the key to understanding what's happening in the cryosphere, the melt over the time period. We are seeing melt measured in decades that would under normal cycles take hundreds or thousands of years.

[Plantagenet]

...there is no doubt, local weather systems can effect ice loss in a big way. I look at the long term trends though and there is no doubt in my mind that the planet's ice is vanishing at a "geologically" alarming rate. This is the key to understanding what's happening in the cryosphere, the melt over the time period. We are seeing melt measured in decades that would under normal cycles take hundreds or thousands of years.

Exactly right.

The state of Alaska where I live is basically a huge peninsula sticking out into the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea. Our weather is strongly influenced by the amount of sea ice covering the Bering Straights and the Arctic Ocean. In the past during the winter the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Straights would freeze up and basically Alaska would become an extension of Siberia, with no open water in between, and then it would slowly melt back a bit in the summer. But now there is much much less ice and much much much more open water around Alaska, and our climate here is changing very very quickly.

Its like Alaska just got a new blue water ocean just to the north of us.

It's very interesting to watch everything change all around me here in a funny "I'm-living-in-a-climate-disaster-movie" kind of way.


Alaska used to have sea ice right up to the Arctic Ocean coastline almost all summer. Now the sea ice is far out to sea in the summer

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

The state of Alaska where I live is basically a huge peninsula sticking out into the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea. Our weather is strongly influenced by the amount of sea ice covering the Bering Straights and the Arctic Ocean. In the past during the winter the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Straights would freeze up and basically Alaska would become an extension of Siberia, with no open water in between, and then it would slowly melt back a bit in the summer. But now there is much much less ice and much much much more open water around Alaska, and our climate here is changing very very quickly.

It's very interesting to watch everything change all around me here in a funny "I'm-living-in-a-climate-disaster-movie" kind of way.


Cheers!

Yes, you're at ground zero alright Plant. I remember 10 years ago when the skeptics were pointing to the freezing winters in America as a sign that CC was a hoax and I saw that it was clearly the disruption of the circumpolar winds pushing down across the states, caused by the insane path of a hurricane in the Pacific that had gone way north and pushed the cold air out.

Now it's about 20-deg warmer than average up there, but of course since it's still below the freezing point a lot of the ice is retained. These dreamers ignore the 20-deg rise like it doesn't matter, which was only exasperated by the media promoting wingnut predictions from the AGW camp which touted all the ice would be gone in the arctic sea by 2020.

It's like Peak Oil, the early promoters got the decline rates wrong and because of that the event was ignored by the masses. One summer soon all that ice will be gone up where you are, Antarctica will begin shedding vast amounts of it's land based ice and peak oil constraints will be felt in every corner of the globe. Happy day ahead hey. Or as the Chinese would say, " May you live in interesting times"

[AdamB]

It's like Peak Oil, the early promoters got the decline rates wrong and because of that the event was ignored by the masses.

Revisionist. And ignorant peak oiler. The reason why peak oilers were wrong are legion. In other words, a higher number than you can count because you'll run out of fingers. And aren't smart enough to continue with your other 11 digits. Or possibly maybe only 10.

[Plantagenet]

It's like Peak Oil, the early promoters got the decline rates wrong and because of that the event was ignored by the masses. One summer soon all that ice will be gone up where you are, Antarctica will begin shedding vast amounts of it's land based ice and peak oil constraints will be felt in every corner of the globe.

You are absolutely 100% right again, Lucky.

I enjoy your posts a lot. Unlike a certain dullard who posts mostly childish ad homs at this site, you've always got something interesting and new to say.

Happy day ahead hey. Or as the Chinese would say, " May you live in interesting times"

Happy day ahed hey to you too.

Or as I like to say...

HAVE A GOOD ONE.



Cheers!

[Tanada]

Having followed sea ice trends pretty fairly since 2005 when we got our first modern deviation from the typical seasonal response I am pretty convinced that it won't be obvious until around August First whether any particular year will have a significantly below average ice total.

The simple reality is that while the sun rises at the pole on or around March 20 every year it is at such a low angle until around May 21 it has only a small effect on the ultimate total. June is when serious melting starts accumulating and a cool cloudy June and/or July can seriously slow or nearly halt the melt season just when it would normally be peaking.

August is when things really start popping in June and July were average because at that point there is open water in the margins of the Arctic Basin. Those dark water soak up a lot of solar energy as the sun is still high enough and the 24 hours of daylight combine to energize the surface layer. Here again weather becomes a serious factor as windy sunny days promote rapid melting as ice on the margins breaks free and moves into the warmer open spaces where it can be rapidly melted. Windy conditions are also crucial as they combine the surface melt water with the saltier underlying layer which makes fall freeze up take a considerable delay. Open typical sea water is salty enough the temperatures have to drop several degrees below fresh water freeze temperatures before pancake ice starts forming. In calm years where the surface layer has a thicker less saline melt layer floating on top freeze earlier.

Complicating all that there are four major rivers dumping warm fresh water into the Arctic basin, three in Asia and one in North America. In calm years this fresh water spreads out in vast fan shapes on the surface before it mixes into the sea water and becomes average salinity. In windy seasons it mixes in much closer to the shore and again this retards the freeze up in the fall.

Starting in 2007 there has been a massive decline in the age of the Arctic sea ice. Over half the ice cap used to be more than five years perpetual ice that had lost most of its seawater inclusions. When sea water freezes the fresh ice traps bubbles of extremely salty water within the mass of the ice. For the first two years this fresh ice is very vulnerable to remelting because as soon as the temperature approaches the freezing point the bubbles of saline water absorb ice surrounding them melting it into their mass and making the bubbles grow. If the temperature reaches the freezing point these bubbles connect and drain out leaving the ice looking like Swiss cheese and very vulnerable to completely melting away. When the ice is over two years old until it is five years old the constant bending and flexing it undergoes from squeezing together or pulling apart causes tiny cracks to form which allow the highly saline water to drain away into the sea below. This mostly happens in the dead of winter and the very cold very salty water usually sinks several hundred feet when released. Between years two and five this process drains nearly all the saline inclusions from the new ice so after five years it is salt free and much harder to melt than younger ice.

In 2007 a shift in surface circulation currents and extreme melting reduced this 50 percent of very hard older ice down to about 20 percent. Of the 30 percent lost about half or about 15 percent melted in place and the rest was driven out of the basin and down the coast of Greenland on the east coast as icebergs that melted in the North Atlantic some time that summer and fall.
https://nsidc.org/sites/default/files/s ... k=Ud3hcMoQ

[Tanada]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files ... re-6-1.png

[theluckycountry]

I enjoy your posts a lot. Unlike a certain dullard who posts mostly childish ad homs at this site, you've always got something interesting and new to say.
Happy day ahed hey to you too.

Or as I like to say...

HAVE A GOOD ONE.

Cheers!

Well thanks Plant, I enjoy reading your posts as well, you do research and draw out the facts, the reality on these issues, unlike that clown that's on my ignore list. He is a true troll, a sad example of what happens to someone who refuses to grow up and change with the times.

[theluckycountry]

Between years two and five this process drains nearly all the saline inclusions from the new ice so after five years it is salt free and much harder to melt than younger ice.

In 2007 a shift in surface circulation currents and extreme melting reduced this 50 percent of very hard older ice down to about 20 percent. Of the 30 percent lost about half or about 15 percent melted in place and the rest was driven out of the basin and down the coast of Greenland on the east coast as icebergs that melted in the North Atlantic some time that summer and fall.

An oceanographer I listened to some years back put it eloquently, the thick "slow ice" across the top is mostly gone and what's left is like a slushy in summer, broken into small pieces, which spread wide across the ocean and give the impression, from a satellite, that the ice cover isn't so bad. On close inspection though the thick ice that once was the mainstay of the polar cap is now all but gone and a particularly warm summer could see most of the new "fast ice" vanish.

[Plantagenet]

sea ice extent

Up here in Alaska the winter sea ice extent is just as important as the summer sea ice extent because it controls our winter weather.....

.....and we set the all time record for minimum winter sea ice extent this last winter.

So far the sea ice extent heading into the summer minimum isn't on a record setting pace, but there is still time for an Arctic ocean heatwave to melt that ice and hit a new minimum summer low.

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

sea ice extent

Up here in Alaska the winter sea ice extent is just as important as the summer sea ice extent because it controls our winter weather...

Yes it would, now that I think of it. Weather is now a major factor, (as in the link below) it can cause significant ice melt whereas before when the ice was thick it would have little effect. Then there are these positive feedback loops where more ice melt causes more ice melt. We're very near or at a tipping point probably.

IMG
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/09/N_20120916_doy_extn_hires-859x1024.png

Arctic sea ice extent settles at record seasonal minimum
September 19, 2012

... Summer temperatures across the Arctic were warmer than average, but cooler than in 2007. The most notable event was a very strong storm centered over the central Arctic Ocean in early August. It is likely that the primary reason for the large loss of ice this summer is that the ice cover has continued to thin and become more dominated by seasonal ice. This thinner ice was more prone to be broken up and melted by weather events, such as the strong low pressure system just mentioned. The storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2012/09/