[Serial_Worrier]

Back to the death of suburbia. Do you think it's dying lately? Seems to be thriving. Due to Covid a lot of people went back to a car centric lifestyle somewhere outside of the cities. Will they go back to the cities? Hard to tell.

This guy has some ideas, although this paper is from last year...
https://bisoninterests.com/content/f/wh ... oil-demand

Interesting.

[theluckycountry]

Suburbia is going just fine in Oz. Brisbane, the city I left to move rural has a 26% annualized growth rate at the moment. The median price is now $645k and they are clearing scrub 50km from the CBD to build more and more estates. Madness really, but it's the psychology of previous investment at work and those at the Top are making squillions while those at the bottom aren't thinking beyond their next paycheck.

Where will it end? With a million people living cheek to jowl in homes with failing services and access to food is history is any guide. By that time I expect the only cars able to navigate the degenerating roads will be 4x4's, if they can get fuel for them. Of course we could crack Fusion power, or find some Di-lithium crystals, but otherwise those outer suburbs will be a wasteland in 100 years. Even the inner ones I suspect.

City: Angkor
Pop: approx 800,000

The sprawling tropical city, which covered 3,000 square kilometers (1,158 square miles), thrived from the 9th to the 15th centuries before being abandoned, possibly due to climate change.
https://news.artnet.com/art-world/angko ... on-1966958

[theluckycountry]

Back to the death of suburbia. Do you think it's dying lately? Seems to be thriving. Due to Covid a lot of people went back to a car centric lifestyle somewhere outside of the cities. Will they go back to the cities? Hard to tell.

This guy has some ideas, although this paper is from last year...
https://bisoninterests.com/content/f/wh ... oil-demand

Interesting.

Here in Oz there was a big (relative) exodus from cities, especially southern ones. Anyone with the means and the idea bought homes out into the countryside to escape the madness of the city lockdowns. When I bought out here homes took around two years to sell, now they don't even put up forsale signs, they are sold the day they are listed. It's causing massive problems too because people who want to work in the area can't buy or rent for love nor money. Up in Bundaberg people are pitching tents on the side of the roads. These people aren't homeless in the traditional sense, many have good paying jobs, they just can't find a home. And at $100 a night motels are out of the question.

[Serial_Worrier]

COVID concentration camps are one of the most insidious developments in the history of Western countries.

[AdamB]

COVID concentration camps are one of the most insidious developments in the history of Western countries.

The same was once said of Fedghettos because of peak oil. Interesting how the same basic idea when discredited in one context is recycled into another.

[Outcast_Searcher]

COVID concentration camps are one of the most insidious developments in the history of Western countries.

Yes, yes, in reality the entire world is a giant series of conspiracy theories.

It's as obvious as, say, that the earth is flat. /s

Of course, whining and outright making shiite up is far easier than thinking about an issue. And you get to try to score political points as a bonus!

[Outcast_Searcher]

Whether the far right noise machine likes it or not, science and facts exist.

Living in cities can result in far less energy use per capita than living way out in the sticks, and having to deal with moving people and things over such distances per capita.

And if oil gets REALLY expensive and stays that way for years, in the modern era, things like buses using batteries or fuel cells (having one major hydrogen station to refuel the buses is practical for a city, vs. trying to put hydrogen thousands of places to power private FCEV cars).

People might not LIKE that, but the alternative of city living and taking bikes, electric buses, walking, etc. is FAR preferable to starving or going without enough food or meds to live in the country if oil and NG get very expensive over time.

Of course, if we can hang in there for a decade or two, then we can largely electrify the whole fleet with things like BEV's and PHEV's running on iron phosphate batteries (fairly cheap, highly durable, and becoming MUCH more energy dense over time). Everyone doesn't need a race car or 500 miles of range. People just need practical and effective vehicles that last and one can get around in without spending a fortune.

And naturally, the usual suspects, like the far right for political reasons, will always be in denial that electrification would help or is even possible, as they are champs at ignoring any evidence (which is mounting significantly over time re vehicle electrification being viable) they don't want to hear.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Of course we could crack Fusion power, or find some Di-lithium crystals, but otherwise those outer suburbs will be a wasteland in 100 years. Even the inner ones I suspect.

https://news.artnet.com/art-world/angko ... on-1966958

First, we don't need fusion power as a "solution". All that would do is extend over-populating by virtue of Jevon's paradox, as humanity doesn't plan ahead re resource consumption vs. preservation any better than fruit flies.

With an electrified grid powered by solar, wind, backed up by batteries, more use of public transport, etc., suburbs don't have to become wastelands. But living standards and especially habits re wastefulness will have to change over time.

Living cheek to jowl does NOT seem at all fun. But good luck getting humans to procreate less, or agree on policies to encourage that, unless they are forced to by, say, mother nature killing of a large proportion of the masses over time, due to population induced (and obvious) consequences of endlessly growing the population as a "normal" behavior.

It still strikes me as odd how unusual it is for people, even in the "educated" first world to choose not to have children. Even with how obvious the downsides are for humanity, re continuing overpopulation. I suppose people just ignore what they don't want to hear, and can continue to blame "everyone else", as long as they get to do what they want in the short term.

Disclosure: I chose not to have kids -- I chose instead to help neices and nephews get educated, make more balanced decisions, etc. One doesn't have to "hate children" to choose not to have them in the modern era.

[JuanP]

It still strikes me as odd how unusual it is for people, even in the "educated" first world to choose not to have children. Even with how obvious the downsides are for humanity, re continuing overpopulation. I suppose people just ignore what they don't want to hear, and can continue to blame "everyone else", as long as they get to do what they want in the short term.

Disclosure: I chose not to have kids -- I chose instead to help nieces and nephews get educated, make more balanced decisions, etc. One doesn't have to "hate children" to choose not to have them in the modern era.

My wife and I made the same choice. We both love children and are actively involved in helping a number of them, including nieces and nephews. This month I started taking the 13 year old son of a friend (parents divorced, father out of the picture, no family but his mom and younger brother) to Yoga classes. We are having a blast! According to recent polls, almost half (44%) of people under 40 in the USA, are planning to live childfree at this time, and the younger they are the higher the percentage.

Africa's population, on the other hand, is expected to grow by more than 3 billion in the next 80 years, according to the UN and World Bank. There is a very well established inverse relationship between the level of education, intelligence, and wealth a person has and the number of biological offspring they produce. Should we call this process Peak Human Evolution?

[theluckycountry]

Africa's population, on the other hand, is expected to grow by more than 3 billion in the next 80 years, according to the UN and World Bank. There is a very well established inverse relationship between the level of education, intelligence, and wealth a person has and the number of biological offspring they produce. Should we call this process Peak Human Evolution?

Sounds like Africa will be the next factory floor for cheap toasters, if they can keep the lights on. As for children, well the Pill gave women the choice there and once men saw they had a choice there too that was the end of it. You can't miss something you have never experienced (raising a large family) and the negative experiences many had growing up in large families would tend to foster an aversion to them I'd expect.

Lets be honest, if you have a partner that you get along with and live in home full of harmony, why compromise that by adding a bunch of crying babies and squabbling kids. Children may be a joy but they are also a pain in the ass and I don't know of any parent who was sorry the day the kids moved out.
"At last! We have the place to ourselves again"

[JuanP]

Africa's population, on the other hand, is expected to grow by more than 3 billion in the next 80 years, according to the UN and World Bank. There is a very well established inverse relationship between the level of education, intelligence, and wealth a person has and the number of biological offspring they produce. Should we call this process Peak Human Evolution?

Sounds like Africa will be the next factory floor for cheap toasters, if they can keep the lights on. As for children, well the Pill gave women the choice there and once men saw they had a choice there too that was the end of it. You can't miss something you have never experienced (raising a large family) and the negative experiences many had growing up in large families would tend to foster an aversion to them I'd expect.

Lets be honest, if you have a partner that you get along with and live in home full of harmony, why compromise that by adding a bunch of crying babies and squabbling kids. Children may be a joy but they are also a pain in the ass and I don't know of any parent who was sorry the day the kids moved out.
"At last! We have the place to ourselves again"

You may be interested on my post about Vasectomies on the SCOTUS thread:

post1483641.html#p1483641

[vtsnowedin]

Suburbia has a new lease on life from teleworking and the roof space for solar panels. It will always be a better place to raise a family then an inner city. As the boomers pass away JR. can move up from the basement to the main floor.
Singles and childless couples on the other hand might gravitate to apartment living for the availability of door dash meals and bars within crawling distance.
The cities do need to solve the crime and homeless problems if they want to thrive as personnel safety trumps convenience.

[C8]

Africa's population, on the other hand, is expected to grow by more than 3 billion in the next 80 years, according to the UN and World Bank. There is a very well established inverse relationship between the level of education, intelligence, and wealth a person has and the number of biological offspring they produce. Should we call this process Peak Human Evolution?

There is an even greater relationship between religious feeling and offspring volume. Most major religions encourage and even require children. There is a church in Africa that is built for 1 million worshippers.

As far as "Peak Human Evolution", it never happened. Human nature is still primitive and unchanged. A temporary increase in technology only gives the appearance of evolution but the illusion will be shattered by 2100 at the latest.

[mousepad]

by 2100 at the latest.

I was wondering how you came to 2100? Is that just a guess? Or is more thought behind it?

[jedrider]

by 2100 at the latest.

I was wondering how you came to 2100? Is that just a guess? Or is more thought behind it?

Crystal Ball. What, you don't have one?

[mousepad]

by 2100 at the latest.

I was wondering how you came to 2100? Is that just a guess? Or is more thought behind it?

Crystal Ball. What, you don't have one?

Yes, I have one, too. But it's frequently wrong.

[vtsnowedin]

78 years ahead is an easy prediction as none of us here will be alive to check the results.
Considering the number of things we have created in my 67 years and how much the world has changed in that time I hesitate to guess what will be the outcome in the year 2100.
But if I'm guessing a total collapse and end of civilization by then would be one of my last choices.
Think about party line phones, Black and white TVs with vacuum tubes in them, No transistors or chips, no space flight. No satellites ( sputnic maybe), Gasoline with lead in it. No video tape or instant replays, No super bowl, No cell phones. 55 Chevys with four barrel carburetors, No CAT scans or MRIs, Etc. Etc.

[jedrider]

78 years ahead is an easy prediction as none of us here will be alive to check the results.
Considering the number of things we have created in my 67 years and how much the world has changed in that time I hesitate to guess what will be the outcome in the year 2100.
But if I'm guessing a total collapse and end of civilization by then would be one of my last choices.
Think about party line phones, Black and white TVs with vacuum tubes in them, No transistors or chips, no space flight. No satellites ( sputnic maybe), Gasoline with lead in it. No video tape or instant replays, No super bowl, No cell phones. 55 Chevys with four barrel carburetors, No CAT scans or MRIs, Etc. Etc.

Time to polish your crystal ball then. Maybe, it needs some Windex.

Not much has changed except we have a few more gadgets than before.

[C8]

by 2100 at the latest.

I was wondering how you came to 2100? Is that just a guess? Or is more thought behind it?

First, I should tell you that I am from the future. I come from 2234 and my outpost found a dig-site where a prepper from your time period held out. His skeleton was found next to a Remington rifle that had "PeakOil was right- suck it Adam" scratched on it.

OK- the serious answer: I believe a lot of the Club of Rome modeling was pretty good and has held up well considering how far back it was done (70's). It forecasts a lot of problems developing with a collision point somewhere around this decade. Fossil Fuels are the basis of civilization, not just for power & transport but chemicals and especially fertilizer. Allowing for errors of the CoR forecasts, I see the peak of oil and other FF's as occurring some time before 2050 and the downslope will be a steep decline. This will spur mass disruption and war.

Now this collapse will be far worse than any before in history. I believe our reliance on digital technology has made us extra sensitive to breakdown. Too many things that are controlled by computers will fail as power collapses. The population is fat, sick, and far removed from the farming, hunting skills needed to survive. The abundance of firearms will lead to mass killing and further collapse. Nuclear reactors will meltdown and nuke missiles may be launched in a misguided belief that we can have a limited nuclear war. Modern civilization has gotten out on an evolutionary limb and has lost generalist skills. We are far too specialized.

In short: we have lost many critical survival skills, we will lose too many resources too fast, we have too much firepower at our disposal when SHTF.

[mousepad]

next to a Remington rifle that had "PeakOil was right- suck it Adam" scratched on it.

Thanks for the laughs.