[Doly]

It took the better part of a year to prove to myself that this process does not apply when dealing with the faith based. And that faith operated regardless of the amount of technical knowledge or education the believer had.

The definition of "faith" on my encyclopedia, when I checked it, was "belief on things unseen", if I remember correctly. Since none of us has seen the future, any beliefs that any of us has about the future count as faith, and we are all faith based. And it's hardly surprising that you cannot prove conclusively stuff about the future, though you can always make predictions, and have a track record of predictions. Then, if you've read "Antifragile" by Nassim Taleb, you know that even a good track record of predictions isn't necessarily what you want.

So anything to do with faith is tricky, obviously. And I don't doubt that it can be tricky in even more ways than I'm aware of, and I'm aware of some pretty weird stuff.

[AdamB]

It took the better part of a year to prove to myself that this process does not apply when dealing with the faith based. And that faith operated regardless of the amount of technical knowledge or education the believer had.

The definition of "faith" on my encyclopedia, when I checked it, was "belief on things unseen", if I remember correctly.

Sure. Like a geologist....who can't see economics. Is it that can't see, or won't, or refuse to allow themselves to even consider it? Never delved into that level, it isn't as though Colin Campbell would still for a psyche exam focused on how silly his professional opinion turned out to be, right?

Since none of us has seen the future, any beliefs that any of us has about the future count as faith, and we are all faith based.

Yeah, but we aren't talking about folks who admit that, or even understand the basic concept. We are talking about people who put their finger on a year on the calendar and proclaim EUREKA!!!!

So anything to do with faith is tricky, obviously. And I don't doubt that it can be tricky in even more ways than I'm aware of, and I'm aware of some pretty weird stuff.

Tricky indeed.

[mousepad]

And it's hardly surprising that you cannot prove conclusively stuff about the future, though you can always make predictions.

The majority on this board try to predict major changing events (collapse and such).
Adam takes the easy way out and predicts tomorrow = today. That's easy, but also mostly correct.

[AdamB]

And it's hardly surprising that you cannot prove conclusively stuff about the future, though you can always make predictions.

The majority on this board try to predict major changing events (collapse and such).
Adam takes the easy way out and predicts tomorrow = today. That's easy, but also mostly correct.

Oh goodness, you must have me confused with someone else. My ideas are cast out to 2050, but I'll admit they aren't daily in nature at all.

[mousepad]

My ideas are cast out to 2050,

what happens in 2050? You gonna bite the dust? Or the world is gonna end?

[AdamB]

My ideas are cast out to 2050,

what happens in 2050? You gonna bite the dust? Or the world is gonna end?

I don't know what happens in 2050. That is just when I told the model to stop running. I can run it to 2100, but the runtimes on these kinds of simulators are just hideous, it would probably take a month.

[vtsnowedin]

I'll be lucky if my timeline extends to 2035 as then I'll be 80 tears old and probably stuck in a wheel chair in a nursing home with an ugly fat nurse that slaps me around to keep me quite.
Got to squeeze in a few good days between now and then.

[Doly]

I don't know what happens in 2050. That is just when I told the model to stop running.

What's your model? Can you give us some info about it?

[AdamB]

I don't know what happens in 2050. That is just when I told the model to stop running.

What's your model? Can you give us some info about it?

Unfortunately, no. You once mentioned the advantages of being a independent researcher, and I mentioned the advantages (and disadvantages) of being a professional one. The good news is, one day I will retire, and then I can wax poetic about it all day long. By then, in a dreamed of world run by renewables and nukes and whatnot, I doubt many folks will interested in those models that solved the peak oil conundrum, once upon a time.

[vtsnowedin]

Have you noticed we are now receiving the oft predicted negative effects of peak oil without actually having a peak oil? Due to the Biden the administration's war on fossil fuels we have less production and rapidly rising energy prices with the inflation that comes along with that including food prices soaring and a shortage of baby formula.
This is a self inflicted wound but it bleeds just as much.

[AdamB]

Have you noticed we are now receiving the oft predicted negative effects of peak oil without actually having a peak oil?

Not quite. Technically, claimed or actual peak oil #6 of this century happened, back in 2018 or so. It will stand, or not, on its own as the future unfolds, just like all the others. So folks claiming that todays effects are peak oil related can....of course, just as they have done in the past regardless of whether or not a claimed or actual peak oil was involved. It seems they just want to proclaim the end, scream about gold, fantasize about doom, have an excuse to collect MRE's, guns and ammo, grow a garden, buy a hunting or fishing cabin, become vegan, whatever.

So the claim can be made, as it has before, but the current situation doesn't seem to be much beyond pandemic and geopolitic related.

Due to the Biden the administration's war on fossil fuels we have less production and rapidly rising energy prices with the inflation that comes along with that including food prices soaring and a shortage of baby formula.

Yeah, the Biden administration didn't have much to do with the pandemic other than trying to manage the damaged environment they were handed, the post-pandemic demand surge and they certainly didn't start the European war, and American E&P's are making money hand over fist with Biden declaring war on them....Please! Don't throw me into the briar patch Mr Biden! Our stock can't stand to go up any higher!!!

This is a self inflicted wound but it bleeds just as much.

Well yes, the previous administration did take a dump all over the economy and Biden did manage to get it back on track, pulling it out of recession and all, and Biden did pretend to bash industry in as benign a way as possible resulting in massive profits going to them with his managed recovery from Trump's mess, but those are good self inflicted wounds to date. Inflation came along with it all, and it appears to have just ticked down this month, over last. He's got another 2 years..lest we forget, folks fled Reagan in '82 as well, and by '84, he was...DA MAN!! The Sleepy Man after that ...but still...DA MAN!

[Doly]

It seems they just want to proclaim the end, scream about gold, fantasize about doom, have an excuse to collect MRE's, guns and ammo, grow a garden, buy a hunting or fishing cabin, become vegan, whatever.

I'm not interested in screaming about gold, fantasizing about doom isn't as much fun as other SF fantasies, and I don't collect MRE's, guns and ammo. I grew strawberries and tomatoes in my garden for a while but stopped once it was clear that there wouldn't be an interruption of fruit with Brexit. I don't have a hunting or fishing cabin. And I'm not vegan, just vegetarian.

What I'm interested in is getting people to use less transport, primarily, and secondarily, less of other kinds of energy-intensive activities.

Inflation came along with it all, and it appears to have just ticked down this month, over last.

Inflation most definitely isn't coming down.

[AdamB]

I'm not interested in screaming about gold, fantasizing about doom isn't as much fun as other SF fantasies, and I don't collect MRE's, guns and ammo. I grew strawberries and tomatoes in my garden for a while but stopped once it was clear that there wouldn't be an interruption of fruit with Brexit. I don't have a hunting or fishing cabin. And I'm not vegan, just vegetarian.

What I'm interested in is getting people to use less transport, primarily, and secondarily, less of other kinds of energy-intensive activities.

Well, your lifestyle and goals are laudable. While some aspects of your lifestyle were mentioned during the hayday of peak oil, none of them were the cool neato parts from the perspective of most conversations. Oh, there were some threads around here on folks into gardening, I believe Matt Savinar himself was pimping window box tomatoes as a good way to survive the coming collapse. In between hawking Amazon goods he got a cut on and solar ovens and whatnot. Folks who just wanted to learn some gardening skills? Drowned out by the MZB and Mad Max lovers mostly.

Inflation came along with it all, and it appears to have just ticked down this month, over last.

Inflation most definitely isn't coming down.

I was specific. I like being familiar with data when making statements like the one you quoted.