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THE Gasoline Price Thread 2022-2023

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

THE Gasoline Price Thread 2022-2023

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 19 Apr 2022, 14:57:02

Oil prices could shoot up to a record $185 per barrel if the European Union acts to impose a full immediate ban on imports of Russian oil, JPMorgan says.

Wednesday, Apr 20, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... o-185.html

Well maybe they will and maybe they wont but they are already half way there. It would seem to me that they are shooting themselves in the foot? Nations forever have been falling over themselves to secure access to oil, and here we have the EU, an oil starved group of western nations turning their noses up at it? Oh it's to punish Putin and make him withdraw, but it won't! He/Russia has all they need to prosecute the war in the Ukraine, it's not like WWII where the American embargo of the Islands of Japan could seriously curtail their industrial expansion. But lets leave the TV set nonsense aside and use our brains for a moment to look at some facts.

- Western leaders know the world is running out of oil and they need to dial back consumption.
- The lions share of consumption is personal automobile travel, little people wasting oil in their cars.
- Using a war as an excuse for drastic social reforms is the oldest trick in the hat.

The covid lockdowns were a good start in the right direction, conspiracy or no, it curtailed consumption.
Right on it's heels we see this new 'Event' that now seriously pushes up the price of oil, and gasoline, more steps in the right direction.

I suggested here a while back that further future lockdowns could well be used to curtail consumption, and that has been happening in China, the worlds biggest consumer now that the US has dropped further towards being a second world nation. These events could be regarded as coincidences, though I for one don't believe in coincidences on this scale.

After facing fierce criticism for continuing to operate in Russia, Nestle has withdrawn some of its brands including KitKat and Nesquik, but will still sell "essential foods".
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659 11 April

Well there you have it, the Russian beast will be brought to heel by denying them kit kat chocolate bars. Meanwhile all of Europe, the UK and America will suffer under exorbitant fuel prices while the Russians sell a reduced amount, at much higher prices. Sounds like a Win Win for Russia :lol: :lol:
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Apr 2022, 15:00:06

theluckycountry wrote:Oil prices could shoot up to a record $185 per barrel if the European Union acts to impose a full immediate ban on imports of Russian oil, JPMorgan says.

Wednesday, Apr 20, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... o-185.html


Outstanding!! Go extinct you ICE powered antiquities, your time is up!
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 19 Apr 2022, 18:21:07

AdamB wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:Oil prices could shoot up to a record $185 per barrel if the European Union acts to impose a full immediate ban on imports of Russian oil, JPMorgan says.

Wednesday, Apr 20, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... o-185.html


Outstanding!! Go extinct you ICE powered antiquities, your time is up!

A $185 price would be short lived and as ICE cars last fifteen years now on average their extinction is a long ways out. The EV cars need to deliver a' new to salvage yard' cost to own set of statistics that show them being more cost efficient to own then an ICE car before the ICE cars are in any danger. That may very well happen but it has not happened yet.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Apr 2022, 23:10:50

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:Oil prices could shoot up to a record $185 per barrel if the European Union acts to impose a full immediate ban on imports of Russian oil, JPMorgan says.

Wednesday, Apr 20, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... o-185.html


Outstanding!! Go extinct you ICE powered antiquities, your time is up!

A $185 price would be short lived and as ICE cars last fifteen years now on average their extinction is a long ways out.


Sure. So what? The 2008 peak oil (#4 of the 21st) gave us the beginnings of the solution with Volts and Leafs and whatnot, Tesla's meager beginnings, even while the McPeaksters were yucking it up over "Who Killed The Electric Car".

vtsnowedin wrote: The EV cars need to deliver a' new to salvage yard' cost to own set of statistics that show them being more cost efficient to own then an ICE car before the ICE cars are in any danger. That may very well happen but it has not happened yet.


ICE cars are already in danger. What Elon has managed to do with Tesla is proof of that already, let alone the lesser valued companies trying to catch up, and now the need to begin replacing Russian crude? Oh, something is likely to happen, and while I like a $250 oil floor, it won't be necessary. There will be fits and starts, and something even better might come along (I'm a fan of the idea of fuel cells and hydrogen as well) for that matter.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 20 Apr 2022, 07:59:38

In danger yes but not yet. Too few Teslas have made it to the scrap yard to have reliable figures on total lifetime cost per mile. And they may have to include higher fire insurance bills for garages holding them while charging if they can't fix that problem.
But if I was a betting man I'd bet on the EVs winning out within a decade.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 20 Apr 2022, 08:56:53

vtsnowedin wrote:In danger yes but not yet.


I agree. But momentum is momentum, global circumstances and concerns are ongoing and aren't stopping anytime soon, and you might think it is a Jim dandy great idea to blast cubic $$ of discretionary income out the door for something so simple as fuel to get around, some of us don't. I don't begrudge you wasting your discretionary income any way you'd like for whatever reason, I'm hardly one to talk as I waste money on stuff as well.

vtsnowedin wrote:Too few Teslas have made it to the scrap yard to have reliable figures on total lifetime cost per mile.


Well, when the stupid things don't break because their moving parts are few and far between, why should they be junked? I have like 3 main moving parts on my EV, how many are in the engine alone of that Subaru you recently acquired? I'll bet its more than 3.

vtsnowedin wrote:And they may have to include higher fire insurance bills for garages holding them while charging if they can't fix that problem.


Sure. Because it isn't as though ICE cars ever burn down their owners garages, right?

vtsnowedin wrote:But if I was a betting man I'd bet on the EVs winning out within a decade.


A reasonable assumption and time frame. For awhile there I liked CNG and had hopes, but that doesn't seem to have gone anywhere. Myself, I'm interested in the new and improved plug in hybrids, sort of like the old Volt. 40-50-60 miles of electric but a gas engine to do the interstate travels. I have an early model of one of those and it works great, but is light on EV range. And then something like the Leaf can be relatively short range/local and do all the work commuting and grocery getting and whatnot, alleviating the need for a 200 mile range EV. Plus the things are dirt cheap. Were dirt cheap. Assuming a decent recession soon, might update to a longer ranged one if the prices fall far enough.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 20 Apr 2022, 14:55:02

Fire insurance bills will be based on the incident rate that actually happens. For ICE cars garaged it is quite low as once they are shut off and cool down few incidents have occurred over time.
The EV is having energy pumped into them while charging so is not in a static state and things can and do happen. I am optimistic the problem will get solved shortly but the insurance actuaries will want a data set to set the rates by.
you might think it is a Jim dandy great idea to blast cubic $$ of discretionary income out the door for something so simple as fuel to get around,

For most people fuel needed to get to and from work is not discretionary income or expense. it is just a necessity to get the balance of the income needed. Just like a super tanker burning some oil to get the rest of the load to market.
Well, when the stupid things don't break because their moving parts are few and far between, why should they be junked? I have like 3 main moving parts on my EV, how many are in the engine alone of that Subaru you recently acquired? I'll bet its more than 3.

Every thing wears out eventually and for EVs it might be the battery or the body panels or frame or maybe just the seats and other interior appointments or perhaps they will make the chips obsolete like they do with your cell phone. That the electric drive motors are still good will make no difference if the rest of the vehicle is undriveable. If they last more miles then an ICE car that is good but the question is what is the total cost per mile lifetime reguardless of how long the lifetime is.
Not that many years ago I had a Chevy pick up that cost me 23 cents per mile all costs included over 256,000 miles. Best I ever got.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 20 Apr 2022, 16:12:05

vtsnowedin wrote:Fire insurance bills will be based on the incident rate that actually happens. For ICE cars garaged it is quite low as once they are shut off and cool down few incidents have occurred over time.
The EV is having energy pumped into them while charging so is not in a static state and things can and do happen. I am optimistic the problem will get solved shortly but the insurance actuaries will want a data set to set the rates by.


I've got mine charging in the garage right now, just as I have done it for nearly 8 years now. No insurance at my major brand name insurance company has been raised yet. Now, a sports car and a kid turning 16 and getting a license? Hoo Boy! Tells you where the risk is I suppose.

vtsnowedin wrote:
you might think it is a Jim dandy great idea to blast cubic $$ of discretionary income out the door for something so simple as fuel to get around,

For most people fuel needed to get to and from work is not discretionary income or expense. it is just a necessity to get the balance of the income needed. Just like a super tanker burning some oil to get the rest of the load to market.


Okay...the expense of fuel isn't discretionary.....a purchase decision requiring the use of expensive fuels is. Which means, said consumers after making that decision shouldn't get an inch of newsprint or TV time whining about how much their fuel costs are post purchase. They signed up for that cost upfront....now they get to enjoy the benefit of that choice...and the consequences.

vtsnowedin wrote:
Well, when the stupid things don't break because their moving parts are few and far between, why should they be junked? I have like 3 main moving parts on my EV, how many are in the engine alone of that Subaru you recently acquired? I'll bet its more than 3.

Every thing wears out eventually and for EVs it might be the battery or the body panels or frame or maybe just the seats and other interior appointments or perhaps they will make the chips obsolete like they do with your cell phone.


Yup. All things wear out.

vtsnowedin wrote:That the electric drive motors are still good will make no difference if the rest of the vehicle is undriveable. If they last more miles then an ICE car that is good but the question is what is the total cost per mile lifetime reguardless of how long the lifetime is.
Not that many years ago I had a Chevy pick up that cost me 23 cents per mile all costs included over 256,000 miles. Best I ever got.


I have owned perhaps 42 automobiles in my time, having driven some 1.36 million miles with them (bike count is 29 and another couple hundred K). Not once did I make a purchase on a hoped for cost per mile. I made the decision like most non-fleet operators do I imagine, what is the CapX involved, what is the OpX, will it get me chics, or tow my motorcycles to cool racetracks on the other side of the country, will it haul the family around in bad weather, and does it come from a manufacturer that has a reputation for quality. I keep a spreadsheet with basic information, what I paid for it, what I sold it for, fuel mileage, gasoline price average across the time span I owned it, etc etc. No insurance costs though. I've got 3 lower than 23 cents. All Honda's interestingly, and all with some things in common. They weren't expensive to buy, if sold I got a fair price back out of them, and they were just cheap to run. I've got one that ties 23 cents, and it is still running and my main cross continent traveler. That 23 cents is calculated with a salvage value of $0, and as long as I don't total it, or I just sell it because it is old and get a few bucks, it is almost guaranteed to be under 23 cents, so that would make only my 4th. The worst is greater than $1.80/mile, a sports car I bought for the wife, she then used it once a week to make a 5 mile burger run in the stupid thing, and then I took a bath when I traded it. So low miles, huge depreciation, a total waste. But hey...someone has to wear the skirt in the family, and she shall not be denied.

If the probability of a moving part disabling your cage is equal across all parts, fewer moving parts calculates to a lower probability of a disabling failure. The math is as simple as gets. And has nothing to do with CPM.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 20 Apr 2022, 18:09:21

Okay...the expense of fuel isn't discretionary.....a purchase decision requiring the use of expensive fuels is. Which means, said consumers after making that decision shouldn't get an inch of newsprint or TV time whining about how much their fuel costs are post purchase. They signed up for that cost upfront....now they get to enjoy the benefit of that choice...and the consequences.

If there is an intelligible thought there I fail to see it.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 20 Apr 2022, 18:43:01

vtsnowedin wrote:
Okay...the expense of fuel isn't discretionary.....a purchase decision requiring the use of expensive fuels is. Which means, said consumers after making that decision shouldn't get an inch of newsprint or TV time whining about how much their fuel costs are post purchase. They signed up for that cost upfront....now they get to enjoy the benefit of that choice...and the consequences.

If there is an intelligible thought there I fail to see it.


Well then pictures for those with literacy difficulties!

Image
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 20 Apr 2022, 21:20:33

AdamB wrote:I have owned perhaps 42 automobiles in my time,

crazy
having driven some 1.36 million miles with them

crazy

Not once did I make a purchase on a hoped for cost per mile.

Of course not. If one is as crazy as you about cars one makes emotional purchase decisions, not cost per mile decisions.
I owned maybe 4 cars in 30 years. And for each purchase I did a lot of CPM research. 1.36 Mmiles driven? That's like 3 years spent in a car. Crazy.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 21 Apr 2022, 00:26:02

mousepad wrote:
Not once did I make a purchase on a hoped for cost per mile.

Of course not. If one is as crazy as you about cars one makes emotional purchase decisions, not cost per mile decisions.


An interesting conclusion to draw from my cage purchasing habits, spanning chunks of 2 centuries and 6 different decades now. Would it make a difference if I offered that I am slowing down in my old age? :)

And, if I think about it, I am forced to admit you are probably right. There has always been an emotional thing in this buying, selling, trading, something visceral that must trigger endorphins or something. But cages are just a means to an end, I save my happy time for 2 wheels, not 4. 4 wheels are great for towing 2 wheelers places, or carrying them in the bed. I can attest that 200 miles in a day on a racetrack on 2 wheels is orders of magnitude more emotionally invigorating than driving 4000 miles to and from in 4.

mousepad wrote:I owned maybe 4 cars in 30 years. And for each purchase I did a lot of CPM research. 1.36 Mmiles driven? That's like 3 years spent in a car. Crazy.


I once worked a job in the GOM, 50 miles offshore. I hit the docks in Morgan City, hopped in the Toyota, and a couple days later was drilling south of the Great Slave Lake in the NWT. I've done Denver to Prudhoe Bay in 4 days with a stop in Hyder and some sightseeing along the way. I caged Banff to Anchorage once over a weekend, leaving Banff after a conference Friday afternoon where I was keynoting, arriving in Anchorage in time for dinner Sunday night. I love the Alcan.

As I said, I am older now, and much calmer about my affair with motorized transport. I sleep in hotels rather than the back seats of cars, limit my driving to mostly daylight hours, stop at oil and gas museums along the way for sightseeing, national parks, the red woods or old volcanos or fossil beds or whatever happens to be along the way. Yes...much calmer.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 22 Apr 2022, 17:02:54

vtsnowedin wrote:
Well, when the stupid things don't break because their moving parts are few and far between, why should they be junked? I have like 3 main moving parts on my EV, how many are in the engine alone of that Subaru you recently acquired? I'll bet its more than 3.

Every thing wears out eventually and for EVs it might be the battery or the body panels or frame


Modern ICE cars typically run trouble free for 10 years, then minor issues begin to arise. At 10 years an EV is up for a complete new battery pack, tens of thousands of dollars. I doubt many would bother, they will just send them to the scrapyard. Battery life and replacement cost issues are tactfully ignored by EV fanboys.

What will a LiPO pack be worth in 8~10 years? A hell of a lot more than now given the rising price of Lithium and the the available reserves. Let them eat their cake now, it won't last.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 22 Apr 2022, 17:43:26

theluckycountry wrote: At 10 years an EV is up for a complete new battery pack, tens of thousands of dollars.


I'm at about 8 on one, and 7 on the other. Want to make a bet on either from your vast knowledge of never having owned an EV? We've already demonstrated you know nothing about dismantling nuke plants, riding motorcycles on quality roads and can't explain why Australians drive American cars, perhaps you would like to prove your ignorance in yet another arena?
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 18 May 2022, 13:16:49

Just a little update, prices are way up in my area the highest I have seen even counting 2008 when crude spiked up to $147/bbl!

Regular 87 octane E-10 aka Gasohol is running at $4.479/gallon and $4.499/gallon.
Ultra low sulfur Diesel is running $5.129/gallon to $5.199/gallon.

In comparison E-85 which used to run a dollar cheaper back in 2008 is running from $4.299/gallon to $4.399/gallon
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Doly » Wed 18 May 2022, 14:37:06

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Okay...the expense of fuel isn't discretionary.....a purchase decision requiring the use of expensive fuels is. Which means, said consumers after making that decision shouldn't get an inch of newsprint or TV time whining about how much their fuel costs are post purchase. They signed up for that cost upfront....now they get to enjoy the benefit of that choice...and the consequences.

If there is an intelligible thought there I fail to see it.


Well then pictures for those with literacy difficulties!

Image


There definitely was an intelligible thought there. The idea was that if somebody buys a car that uses an expensive fuel, it's their mistake and they have no right to complain about the price of fuel.

What is not an intelligible thought for me is why a picture improves things for some people/bots/cyborgs. Which it obviously does, the way people behave in this forum, and other forums. Does anybody care to explain?
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 18 May 2022, 15:26:53

Doly wrote:
AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Okay...the expense of fuel isn't discretionary.....a purchase decision requiring the use of expensive fuels is. Which means, said consumers after making that decision shouldn't get an inch of newsprint or TV time whining about how much their fuel costs are post purchase. They signed up for that cost upfront....now they get to enjoy the benefit of that choice...and the consequences.

If there is an intelligible thought there I fail to see it.


Well then pictures for those with literacy difficulties!

Image


There definitely was an intelligible thought there. The idea was that if somebody buys a car that uses an expensive fuel, it's their mistake and they have no right to complain about the price of fuel.


I would venture that you have perhaps at least a regular college degree and VT doesn't, but that would be rude as he usually appears lucid and logical. Except with his political affiliation, but vast quantities of practical experience is as valuable as a college degree in many fields of endeavor, IMHO. Just to be safe, I believe it is best to have both.

Doly wrote:What is not an intelligible thought for me is why a picture improves things for some people/bots/cyborgs. Which it obviously does, the way people behave in this forum, and other forums. Does anybody care to explain?


People are thrilled with the concept that after being denigrated for their Rapture scenarios (peak oil, lack of phosphorus, BOE tomorrow afternoon, global thermonuclear war, CIA created viruses to purge the world of the poor or colored, building bunkers and hiding in them, etc etc) they can scream how right there were...right before one or all of these kill them off.

I don't know enough psychology to understand what deep rooted fears or experiences create the psychological condition of being a doomer, only that boy-o does it exist. Shows up in older rather than younger folks, which makes sense, as age makes people more conservative. You don't see these diehards as much as you used to, folks generally aren't shopping long pork recipes like in the old days, debating how to build punji traps and homemade claymores and whatnot.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 18 May 2022, 19:25:54

You are saying that a person that buys a high fuel use vehicle based on his needs and present and reasonable expectations of fuel over the expected life of that vehicle has no right to complain about fuel prices if they rise based only on political decisions.
Perhaps he should have been more paranoid or skeptical about future government actions but that does not mean he has no right to complain about government actions which could have easily been done other ways.
Come November people will complain about fuel prices in a way the politicians have to listen to!
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 18 May 2022, 23:31:04

vtsnowedin wrote:
Come November people will complain about fuel prices in a way the politicians have to listen to!


Same way they did in 2018 when they realized that they had elected bozo the clown dressed as a fat cheeto in a suit instead of his usual outfit and needed to get more adults involved. And that was before the American economy lost 20 million jobs. And then America had to fix that executive issue 2 years after the initial purge of bums, and have managed to return America to work again. :)
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby careinke » Thu 19 May 2022, 13:27:45

In Washington State, Shell is reprograming the Gas Pumps so they can reflect $10 + gas prices. I expect 10 plus prices within the next two weeks in some parts of the state.

What happens when a gallon of gas goes above the minimum wage? Diesel is already above $6.

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