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Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby suxs » Fri 11 Mar 2022, 07:50:25

Remember when climate change was going to devastate Indian agriculture and burn crops?


For the present time frame, I don't remember these predictions. Perhaps you can refresh my memory.

India Times, 16 February 2022

What I do know is virtually all of India's major river systems depend upon Himalayan glaciers. Further, in that almost half of Indian agriculture is dependent upon glacial melt, the country's future agricultural production prospects are precarious at best as the severity of melting continues to exacerbate due to global climate change and India's burgeoning population growth. Ironically, India is enjoying a surplus of water now benefiting agriculture with the costs to be incurred by future generations.

Although the thinning, melting, and receding of glaciers have been known for quite some time now, every new study comes as a more ominous alarm for humanity.

The Himalayas are called the third pole as it is the repository of the highest volume of ice outside the two poles. As many as 10 major rivers of the Indian subcontinent originate from the Himalayas and India’s 45 percent population is directly or indirectly dependent on the Himalayas.

Melting glaciers have a significant impact on the water resources of Himalayan rivers due to changes in glacier basin hydrology, downstream water budget, impact on hydropower plants due to variation in discharge, flash flood and sedimentation. They also increase in risk related to glacier hazards due to the enhanced number and volume of glacier lakes, accelerated flash flood, and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)

The study concludes that the Himalayan glaciers have lost ice 10 times more quickly over the last few decades than on average since the last major glacier expansion with the rate of loss accelerating with time. In the last 400 to 700 years, the glaciers have lost around 40 percent area with the majority of loss occurring after 1950 – shrinking from 28,000 sq km to around 19,600 sq km.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 11 Mar 2022, 09:11:52

The big problem with the loss of Himalayan glaciers is the timing of the runoff flows. If the monsoons come as rain instead of snow the runoff will flow down and past the farmland in winter instead of during the growing season.
The people dependent on those flows will have to build storage reservoirs to catch that water for later use.
Infrastructure projects coming up!.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 11 Mar 2022, 11:14:27

Current flow = precipitation + melt
Future flow = precipitation only
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 11 Mar 2022, 11:58:00

suxs wrote:
Remember when climate change was going to devastate Indian agriculture and burn crops?


For the present time frame, I don't remember these predictions. Perhaps you can refresh my memory.

India Times, 16 February 2022

What I do know is virtually all of India's major river systems depend upon Himalayan glaciers. Further, in that almost half of Indian agriculture is dependent upon glacial melt, the country's future agricultural production prospects are precarious at best as the severity of melting continues to exacerbate due to global climate change and India's burgeoning population growth. Ironically, India is enjoying a surplus of water now benefiting agriculture with the costs to be incurred by future generations.

Although the thinning, melting, and receding of glaciers have been known for quite some time now, every new study comes as a more ominous alarm for humanity.

The Himalayas are called the third pole as it is the repository of the highest volume of ice outside the two poles. As many as 10 major rivers of the Indian subcontinent originate from the Himalayas and India’s 45 percent population is directly or indirectly dependent on the Himalayas.

Melting glaciers have a significant impact on the water resources of Himalayan rivers due to changes in glacier basin hydrology, downstream water budget, impact on hydropower plants due to variation in discharge, flash flood and sedimentation. They also increase in risk related to glacier hazards due to the enhanced number and volume of glacier lakes, accelerated flash flood, and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)

The study concludes that the Himalayan glaciers have lost ice 10 times more quickly over the last few decades than on average since the last major glacier expansion with the rate of loss accelerating with time. In the last 400 to 700 years, the glaciers have lost around 40 percent area with the majority of loss occurring after 1950 – shrinking from 28,000 sq km to around 19,600 sq km.


Really, you don't recall, I'm sure there will be another scare paper coming out soon? Glaciers are natural reservoirs of water, it accumulates mass in the winter/rainy seasons and loses mass in the summer/dry season. A dam creates a manmade reservoir of water with the added benefit of controlled water release and power generation. What is the human adaption for melting glaciers?

Wheat, source of bread and a foundation of life in much of the world, will suffer from hotter temperatures — and the country where the impact may be greatest also is among least well-equipped to cope with a shortfall. India is likely to see a large drop in wheat production due to heat stress — about 8 percent if average global temperatures rise by 1 degree Celsius, according to one recent study.

https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/20 ... ate-change
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby suxs » Fri 11 Mar 2022, 14:07:46

Glaciers are natural reservoirs of water, it accumulates mass in the winter/rainy seasons and loses mass in the summer/dry season.


In a perfectly balanced ecosystem, yes. However, did you read the results of the two studies summarized by the Indian Times? The net effect has been a significant loss of ice mass, and the rate of loss continues to accelerate with time.

When the ice is gone, as is the case in Glacier National Park, no amount of infrastructure will make a difference as Newfie succinctly noted above.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Doly » Fri 11 Mar 2022, 15:01:16

What I do know is virtually all of India's major river systems depend upon Himalayan glaciers. Further, in that almost half of Indian agriculture is dependent upon glacial melt, the country's future agricultural production prospects are precarious at best as the severity of melting continues to exacerbate due to global climate change and India's burgeoning population growth.


I think the people in India are well aware of the problem. I talked a while ago to a guy from India about climate change, and he told me that it's common talk over there that the monsoon system has become totally erratic.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 11 Mar 2022, 15:18:20

I have lost track of progress but India and Pakistan have had a long pending treaty over water. Talks had been on hold for years, then restarted a couple of years ago.

India was planning on building some large dams in the headwaters and shunting the water for domestic use. Pakistan was upset with that.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby suxs » Fri 11 Mar 2022, 17:00:14

India was planning on building some large dams in the headwaters and shunting the water for domestic use. Pakistan was upset with that.


Add to the list Ethiopia and Egypt. I would not sb surprised to wake up one morning to read in the news that Egyptian bombers took out Ethiopia's new mega-dam complex. 106 million Egyptians live on just 3% of the country's total land area. Any disruption to the waters of the Nile would be a disaster, not to mention the effect on international shipping.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 11 Mar 2022, 21:48:58

suxs wrote:
India was planning on building some large dams in the headwaters and shunting the water for domestic use. Pakistan was upset with that.


Add to the list Ethiopia and Egypt. I would not sb surprised to wake up one morning to read in the news that Egyptian bombers took out Ethiopia's new mega-dam complex. 106 million Egyptians live on just 3% of the country's total land area. Any disruption to the waters of the Nile would be a disaster, not to mention the effect on international shipping.

Are you unclear between the difference of the fresh water Nile and the salt water Suez canal waters. They are close together near the mouth of the Nile but no significant shipping uses both water courses.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 11 Mar 2022, 22:12:51

suxs wrote:
India was planning on building some large dams in the headwaters and shunting the water for domestic use. Pakistan was upset with that.


Add to the list Ethiopia and Egypt. I would not sb surprised to wake up one morning to read in the news that Egyptian bombers took out Ethiopia's new mega-dam complex. 106 million Egyptians live on just 3% of the country's total land area. Any disruption to the waters of the Nile would be a disaster, not to mention the effect on international shipping.


If they wait until it has any volume of water impounded the risk to the Aswan High Dam would be catastrophic in dimensions. I once read that back during the Six Day War the Israeli Air Force hit the Aswan High Dam with paint bombs just to prove to Egypt that they could do it. If any hostile power or natural disaster were to collapse that one dam during a high reservoir fill stage the resulting tidal wave down the narrow Nile valley would produce a death toll in the millions, possibly into the tens of millions.
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 12 Mar 2022, 20:40:18

I think the post was referencing damaging Ethiopias NEW damn that has not yet been filled. IIRC it has been completed, or nearly, but filling was delayed pending negotiations. The last I heard Ethiopia was going to fill anyway.

Could Ethiopia threaten Egypt and the ASWAN damn?

Could Egypt retaliate??

Pakistan and India is a bigger matter. Both nuclear powers who have already fought a brutal war.

PS
Ethiopian damn has been filled without agreement from Egypt it Sudan.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_E ... ssance_Dam

India/Pakistan update: Indian perspective
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/explai ... 650590.cms
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 12 Mar 2022, 22:04:29

I think they could fill it more slowly which would be a good idea from an engineering point of view, letting fill slopes settle to their final density etc. and then once it is filled passing on a years water each year if not in the historical normal month, could actually be a benefit to those down stream by knowing when it is coming and having it arrive when most needed.
Is there a time line of water use that benefits both countries or is it we get ours and you starve?
The dams just take it out of natures hands and put it into humane control. Can they do better then Nature?
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 13 Feb 2023, 21:56:29

Another year, another record wheat forecast for India.
Human Adaptability (Crop Variety + Irrigation + Mechanization) beats Climate Change every time!

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 497870.ece
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby careinke » Tue 14 Feb 2023, 01:19:44

jawagord wrote:Another year, another record wheat forecast for India.
Human Adaptability (Crop Variety + Irrigation + Mechanization) beats Climate Change every time!

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 497870.ece


Our dryland winter wheat crop in Eastern Oregon also had record year returns by tonnage per acre. We also also got a record price. So far 2023 is looking good. :-D

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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 14 Feb 2023, 02:25:28

vtsnowedin wrote:...and then once it is filled passing on a years water each year if not in the historical normal month, could actually be a benefit to those down stream by knowing when it is coming and having it arrive when most needed.


Unless the Ethiopians "Or the Americans" plan to use the water for irrigation in the future themselves. Then they won't be passing on a "years worth of water" will they.

Lying in relatively high rainfall area, irrigation of these areas is supplemental where the rainfall is expected not to meet the crop water requirements. Nearly half (46%) of the irrigation area depends on the flow of the Blue Nile without a storage facility that would regulate the highly seasonal flows of the river.
https://atlas.nilebasin.org/treatise/ir ... -ethiopia/

I wouldn't be at all surprised if they had irrigation as part of their long term plan. With a little help...


Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation


Our goal
To support farmers and governments in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia that are seeking a sustainable, inclusive agricultural transformation. We invest in agriculture across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia because research shows that growth in the agricultural sector is the most effective way to reduce poverty and hunger.


Awwww, such an altruistic pedophile.

The Government of Ethiopia (GOE) has embarked on a ten-year economic development plan (2021-2030) where agriculture is on the top of priority sectors.
To promote commercial-scale farming, the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) created the Ethiopian Agricultural Land and Investment Administration Agency dedicated to overseeing any new large-scale commercial farm deals.
https://www.trade.gov/country-commercia ... ral-sector
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 10 Nov 2023, 19:27:10

And another record. The doom and gloom on crop production always focuses on the potential for more very hot days damaging crops but totally ignores all the other days and nights where global warming keeps the soil warmer and better for plant growth, and creates a longer growing season with expanded potential for high value crop production.

So much for the summer of drought and extreme heat in the US that triggered early fears about crop damage. On Thursday, the Department of Agriculture made it official: This year’s corn harvest was the biggest ever.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newslett ... ecord-crop
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 10 Nov 2023, 19:54:08

The bumper crop can be explained in part by advances in genetically modified seeds, which have improved the resilience of corn plants. But the biggest factor by far is the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.

The war disrupted exports out of the Black Sea region and prompted global crop prices to surge. Farmers acted on that signal and planted more. America’s cornfields took up 10% more area than in 2022, according to the USDA report.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 10 Nov 2023, 21:06:17

Thanks for the clarification ralfy. jawagord is a total climate change denier, always spinning a rosy face on an ecological disaster.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 10 Nov 2023, 22:11:25

ralfy wrote:
The bumper crop can be explained in part by advances in genetically modified seeds, which have improved the resilience of corn plants. But the biggest factor by far is the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.

The war disrupted exports out of the Black Sea region and prompted global crop prices to surge. Farmers acted on that signal and planted more. America’s cornfields took up 10% more area than in 2022, according to the USDA report.


If you are saying price and technology and planted acres matter more than Climate Change I agree, we have never had so much food in the history of the world. And for information US farmers have planted more acres of corn back in the 1930’s so there’s more land to plant and records to come if the price signal says we need it. PS if you read farther it seems the Black Sea region responded to the Black Sea region!

The supply boost isn’t just happening in America. The USDA raised its corn-production forecast for Ukraine and Russia, and global corn reserves are seen climbing to a three-year high.

The world will be awash with the grain for some time to come.


https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_corn_acres_planted
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 11 Nov 2023, 13:10:23

jawagord wrote:
ralfy wrote:
The bumper crop can be explained in part by advances in genetically modified seeds, which have improved the resilience of corn plants. But the biggest factor by far is the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.

The war disrupted exports out of the Black Sea region and prompted global crop prices to surge. Farmers acted on that signal and planted more. America’s cornfields took up 10% more area than in 2022, according to the USDA report.


If you are saying price and technology and planted acres matter more than Climate Change I agree, we have never had so much food in the history of the world. And for information US farmers have planted more acres of corn back in the 1930’s so there’s more land to plant and records to come if the price signal says we need it. PS if you read farther it seems the Black Sea region responded to the Black Sea region!

The supply boost isn’t just happening in America. The USDA raised its corn-production forecast for Ukraine and Russia, and global corn reserves are seen climbing to a three-year high.

The world will be awash with the grain for some time to come.


https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_corn_acres_planted


I'm only citing from the same article. It doesn't point out that global warming led to more crops, which in turn is based on the assumption that the world is a simple lab, such that there will be more plant growth if you pump in more CO2.

But as even deniers put it, the world is such but very complex, and complexity, unfortunately, works both ways.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... t-plants1/
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