[Pops]

Yeah, the electronics aren't coming down so fast, the panels are already relatively cheap and LiFePo have come down a lot. But just because there is lots of desert doesn't mean there will be lots of projects overnight. In the Bakken there weren't pipelines to take away the oil so they sent it out on trains, can't do that with electricity.The grid is feeble already, it isn't going to be ready for massive new PV farms in 2 years.

In fact, Overwhelmed by solar projects, the nation’s largest grid operator seeks a two-year pause on approvals. And that's in the East.

CA was thinking of a connection charge for small RE but they have a big backlash so that might not be a thing. Surprisingly Missouri has net metering and in the SW pretty good insolation—if we stay here I'd probably start with a grid tie and build storage capacity over time as cost comes down. If you can do that with LiFePo, I haven't found a definitive answer to that yet. The advantage aside from catching any price decline, is when they croak one at a time you don't need a mortgage to replace a whole bank.

[evilgenius]

You can look at the Ukraine, and Putin's threat to invade it, and tell that peak oil is real. But you can also tell that it is on the back burner.

If you want to argue Peak Natural Gas perhaps, but wars that aren't even wars yet are no more peak oil derived than the war in Vietnam, Russia's war against Chechnya, Gulf War 1 or 2, the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan or America's abandonment of it in 2021.

They used to call it the Grand Game, or the Great Game. It was what statesmen and aristocrats did in the run up to World War I, and have been doing since. It's as strategic as the Cold War, which is another war you could make the same criticisms of, looking for a plot.

I don't think the people who think this way for the US are ignoring the situation with oil. It does look like the situation is not dire, like it may have looked in 2006, when there were fewer alternatives. We can see an electric future, now. It even has excellent 4WD!

Baring the worst sort of luck, the peak can come and go and the country won't face the same sort of strategic peril it may have under the old way of thinking about these things.

[AdamB]

They used to call it the Grand Game, or the Great Game. It was what statesmen and aristocrats did in the run up to World War I, and have been doing since. It's as strategic as the Cold War, which is another war you could make the same criticisms of, looking for a plot.

I don't think the people who think this way for the US are ignoring the situation with oil. It does look like the situation is not dire, like it may have looked in 2006, when there were fewer alternatives. We can see an electric future, now. It even has excellent 4WD!

Those of us around during the 1970's are quite familiar with The Great Game, as you have described it (reasonably well I might add). It was far more serious then and had a name, The Carter Doctrine. The basics of it are probably no different than they are today, other than it seems far away in a world where the US is the world's largest producer of both oil and gas, and exporter of LNG. Those things will one day come to an end, and we'll be back right where we were 45 years ago. The good news being we've got more time now than we thought we did back then, and EVs are really a thing, rather than homebuilt toys of hobbyists. It doesn't hurt sitting right beside the world's largest accumulation of oil all under the control of a friendly foreign power though, in the long run.

[evilgenius]

They used to call it the Grand Game, or the Great Game. It was what statesmen and aristocrats did in the run up to World War I, and have been doing since. It's as strategic as the Cold War, which is another war you could make the same criticisms of, looking for a plot.

I don't think the people who think this way for the US are ignoring the situation with oil. It does look like the situation is not dire, like it may have looked in 2006, when there were fewer alternatives. We can see an electric future, now. It even has excellent 4WD!

Those of us around during the 1970's are quite familiar with The Great Game, as you have described it (reasonably well I might add). It was far more serious then and had a name, The Carter Doctrine. The basics of it are probably no different than they are today, other than it seems far away in a world where the US is the world's largest producer of both oil and gas, and exporter of LNG. Those things will one day come to an end, and we'll be back right where we were 45 years ago. The good news being we've got more time now than we thought we did back then, and EVs are really a thing, rather than homebuilt toys of hobbyists. It doesn't hurt sitting right beside the world's largest accumulation of oil all under the control of a friendly foreign power though, in the long run.

I started thinking that way when I read an article in Foreign Affairs years ago, about how the Caspian Sea region was a disaster for a certain kind of thinking. The Caspian had not come in. The reserves were not going to be huge, like Iran or Iraq. A lot of geopolitics was waiting to see if they would.

But, then, there are already proven reserves in that same area, and they are strategic. It's just that they belong to Russia. If the electric future isn't going to work, I think that sort of strategic thinking would still apply. I reckon Putin is trying to use the lacunae that has developed in the aftermath of the sea change in energy to get some guarantees from the West.

I wonder if the West realizes that they can pretty much give him whatever he wants? In ten years Russia will have a lot of oil and gas, and no robots and a rotten electrical infrastructure. It'll be hard to compete against even Mongolia with no robots. Imagine the human suffering. It will literally take place on a Russian scale. We know they have the net, though. They have proven they can hack. They haven't proven they can do any good, except toward the kleptocrats.

It will take a lot more economic freedom for the sort of overall freedom that robots can bring to get to your average Russian. What to do about the weak? Stringing them along is not a good tactic when change is taking place so fast. They are only setting themselves up to see the West as carpet baggers, or robber barons.

[AdamB]

Oil: Saudi Arabia announces peak production in 2027 Reporterre

During his meeting with the US President on July 16, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia announced that the country’s oil production is set to peak at 13 million barrels per day, meaning it will plateau before gradually declining. Once that level is reached, “the kingdom will no longer be able to increase its production any further,” the prince said in a speech.

Link

[vtsnowedin]

Oil: Saudi Arabia announces peak production in 2027 Reporterre

During his meeting with the US President on July 16, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia announced that the country’s oil production is set to peak at 13 million barrels per day, meaning it will plateau before gradually declining. Once that level is reached, “the kingdom will no longer be able to increase its production any further,” the prince said in a speech.

Link

That sounds like "peak oil" for KSA. I wonder what the timeline is for Russia, Iraq and Iran.
All these old giant fields will be eventually fracked to squeeze out the last available drop of oil in them and that will probably take decades but not being able to meet increased demand from increasing world population will be a game changer. Perhaps not the instant disaster predicted by peak oil enthusiasts but difficult times for many people of average means .

[Plantagenet]

There is no reason to automatically believe Prince Muhammad of KSA when he claims Saudi production won't peak until 2027......obviously the date of Saudi Peak Oil would be a very important trade secret for the Saudis....the only reason I can see for the Prince to announce they will peak in five years is to cover up the fact that they have already peaked.

So IMHO there is a high probability that KSA has already peaked, or will peak very very soon.

There are several lines of evidence that support this. One is that production from Ghawar, their largest oil field peaked a couple of years ago. KSA will find it difficult to replace this production as it declines, much less increase production for another five years.

Another line of evidence is the actual data on KSA production this year. Biden went to KSA and begged the Saudis to increase their oil production........and they couldn't do it.

If the Saudis aren't already at peak oil, then why haven't they pumped more oil since Biden went to KSA and begged the Saudis for more oil?


Biden went to the "pariah nation" and begged the Prince of Saudi Arabia for more oil......but his big buddy hasn't yet complied......perhaps because KSA can't pump anymore.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

If the Saudis aren't already at peak oil, then why haven't they pumped more oil since Biden went to KSA and begged the Saudis for more oil?

[vtsnowedin]

If the Saudis aren't already at peak oil, then why haven't they pumped more oil since Biden went to KSA and begged the Saudis for more oil?

Yes . Why pump more and reduce your price per barrel.
Now if Biden offered them a sweet little weapons deal they might have calculated the net of that but apparently that was not the plan.

[Plantagenet]

Now if Biden offered them a sweet little weapons deal they might have calculated the net of that but apparently that was not the plan.

But Biden did offer the Saudis a weapons deal. I'm surprised you and Adam don't know about this.....wait....I'm surprised you didn't see this, Snowie, as you are usually very well informed. I'm definitely not surprised that AdamB is ignorant of the facts----its to be expected in his case.

Here's a link----Check out Biden's new giant arms deal with Saudi.

Biden-approves-massive-arms-sale-to-saudi-arabia-

As I was saying.....Biden went to Saudi to beg for oil......and the Saudis got a publicity photo of a fist bump with Biden as he publicly ended their "pariah status" after the Kashoggi murder... and the Saudis also got a giant arms deal from Biden.

But where is the oil from Saudi in return?


Waaaa! Waaaaa! I gave the Saudis a fist bump and a giant weapons deal, but where's my oil in return??? Waaaaaa!

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

The global financial crises marked peak oil quite well, coinciding as it did with the $140 a barrel price. The tertiary oil scam, the shale and tight oil deposits, hardly made a prifit aside from that made by the companies flogging the concept and we'll never know the true eroei of them since the cost of transporting the oil away, the millions of tons of sand and chemicals used, and the all the the other infrastructure to get it out was totally dependent on the the existing fossil fuel infrastructure. Basically they robbed peter to pay paul.

The mitigation came in the form of collapsed economies, then the covid response, now the Russian liberation of the Ukraine from it's Nazi overlords backed by the NATO warmongers. Next year there will be another leg down in consumption no doubt, some cooked up disaster or "unforeseen" supply disruptions as are still ongoing. The world's leaders have many irons in the fire as far as weaning the public off their addiction to oil, and nothing the masses say or believe will change the fact that they will be forced to give up their cars in the years ahead.

[vtsnowedin]

But Biden did offer the Saudis a weapons deal. I'm surprised you and Adam don't know about this.....wait....I'm surprised you didn't see this, Snowie, as you are usually very well informed. I'm definitely not surprised that AdamB is ignorant of the facts----its to be expected in his case.

Three billion in rockets to resupply their existing Patriot stockpiles is hardly a big deal and just undoes a stupid Biden initiative. Now a squadron of F-35s and their Kit might have moved the needle.
For comparison the US has sent 9 billion in military aid to Ukraine on top of 41 billion of other assistance and that is an ongoing stream of funds.

[Plantagenet]

Three billion in rockets to resupply their existing Patriot stockpiles is hardly a big deal and just undoes a stupid Biden initiative.

You forget that Biden said KSA was a "pariah state" and vowed to never sell them any weapons at all.

Biden has done a major "flip flop" to go to Saudi, end their pariah status and welcome them back into the friendly family of nations, beg them for oil, and negotiate a major weapons deal with them.

So MY original question remains......Biden did all these things for Saudi......but he didn't get any significant increase in Saudi oil output in return.

Is that because Prince Muhammad can see that Biden is a senile old fool, and he played him for a fool??


Is that because Prince Muhammad can see that Biden is a senile old fool, and Prince Muhammad played him for a fool??

Or is it because Saudi can't increase its current oil output?

IMHO its probably both.

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

Or is it because Saudi can't increase its current oil output?

IMHO its probably both.

Cheers!

I will not argue with that opinion.

[Doly]

Is that because Prince Muhammad can see that Biden is a senile old fool, and Prince Muhammad played him for a fool??

Or is it because Saudi can't increase its current oil output?

Biden might be a senile old fool, but he's supposed to have some competent people in the White House to tell him about important stuff, such as, Saudi Arabia can't increase its current oil output. So as far as I'm concerned, the mystery of why he travelled at all to Saudi Arabia remains.

[vtsnowedin]

Is that because Prince Muhammad can see that Biden is a senile old fool, and Prince Muhammad played him for a fool??

Or is it because Saudi can't increase its current oil output?

Biden might be a senile old fool, but he's supposed to have some competent people in the White House to tell him about important stuff, such as, Saudi Arabia can't increase its current oil output. So as far as I'm concerned, the mystery of why he travelled at all to Saudi Arabia remains.

Which "competent person" in the White house are you referring to? I can't think of one.

[AdamB]

Which "competent person" in the White house are you referring to? I can't think of one.

Secretaries of Treasury, Defense, and the Attorney General would seem to qualify. Hard pressed to find others though.

The good news being that while the country might be getting comfortable voting for senile old farts for Presidents, they've already spoken on the value of patriot-fascists running the joint.

[mousepad]

Ahhh, the good old times, when a righteous press was fighting for the people, upsetting a strongman.
Now it's different. It's brave men fighting against a foul press.
When did the media become so vile? Did the press lie with the pigs for too long?

[AdamB]

Ahhh, the good old times, when a righteous press was fighting for the people, upsetting a strongman.
Now it's different. It's brave men fighting against a foul press.

I sort of like the idea of just fighting against the press. I heard a nice woman of education today listening to the TV in the background make the comment "I don't even know what to believe in the news nowdays". It struck me as an important piece of how we've gotten to the equivalent of the communists battling the fascists for control of America...full of folks that just want America to stop being full of these communists and fascists.

When did the media become so vile? Did the press lie with the pigs for too long?

Maybe they picked sides? Remember when the news was the news, and political was just a part of it? And mostly showed up during the election cycle?

[vtsnowedin]

Which "competent person" in the White house are you referring to? I can't think of one.

Secretaries of Treasury, Defense, and the Attorney General would seem to qualify. Hard pressed to find others though.

Absolutely not. No , and a thousand times no.