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LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 10 Jan 2022, 22:05:25

theluckycountry wrote:And that's just the sand used.


Jealous much because the US can turn sand and capital into being Saudi America, and the current largest LNG exporter compared to pipsqueak economies like Australia?

And using Steve as a source...please. That halfwit thought Bedford was a reference for his blogging, and has hysterically been calling for the end for approaching a decade now.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Doly » Tue 11 Jan 2022, 15:36:13

has hysterically been calling for the end for approaching a decade now


When my grand-nephews and grand-nieces ask me: "Why did you not stop the world from ending?" I know what to tell them: "Because people that thought they were very smart demanded that if we didn't get the date for the end of the world accurate within a year, they wouldn't listen."

Being a decade off in predictions for global disaster is being pretty accurate. Even twenty years off is acceptable. That's the view that historians usually take, anyway. I'm not aware of anyone that nailed the start of WWI or WWII to the year, several years before it happened.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 12 Jan 2022, 01:43:22

Doly wrote:When my grand-nephews and grand-nieces ask me: "Why did you not stop the world from ending?" I know what to tell them: "Because people that thought they were very smart demanded that if we didn't get the date for the end of the world accurate within a year, they wouldn't listen."

Being a decade off in predictions for global disaster is being pretty accurate. Even twenty years off is acceptable. That's the view that historians usually take, anyway. I'm not aware of anyone that nailed the start of WWI or WWII to the year, several years before it happened.


Thats a good story -----and you make a very good point there, Doly.

Both Climate Change and peak Oil suffer from this problem but in opposite ways.

We know the world will eventually reach peak oil.......its just going to happen a few decades later then originally thought.

While, in contrast, Climate Change seems to be happening more quickly then predicted. When the scientists starting predicting global warming would get bad about the year 2100 you couldn't blame people for not getting too worried about. But now the changes predicted to occur by 2100 ---- like an ice free Arctic Ocean, or year round catastrophic forest fires------look like they are going to arrive by the end of this decade.....and its now too late to do anything about it.

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Global warming is happening so much faster then predicted that now its too late to do anything about it.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 12 Jan 2022, 13:09:24

theluckycountry wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:While the little quarter sized lithium batteries in your watch or phone don't get recycled much at present by the time your 75KW battery in your Tesla needs replacement it will surly get recycled and it will probably be against the law not to.


Crystal ball time is it, well the reality is the cost. It costs too much. Look at solar panels, where are they getting recycled on any scale? They have been talking about that for decades too.

No oil or coal, everything powered by renewables, all the ore dug and transported by lithium powered vehicles, and all the world's fleets besides, and now add to that impossible burden recycling all the lipo batteries and solar panels on top of building all the new ones.
............
.............

Considering that much if the Lithium today is produced by pumping brine out of a source strata and then evaporating the water with solar(The desert of Chile) and other energy expensive processes, it should be possible to devise robots that disassemble Car batteries into their individual cells then split or cut the cells apart dumping the lithium into a bin cheaper.
Yes, no one is doing it yet but when prices & demand get high enough some one will develop a way to do it profitably.
Note: all three of my Lithium mining stocks are up today. :)
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 12 Jan 2022, 14:13:58

The energy transition is driving the next commodity supercycle, with immense prospects for technology manufacturers, energy traders, and investors. The transition from ICEs to EVs has become a focal point of the global electrification drive. In 2020, global sales of EVs increased a robust 39% year on year to 3.1 million units, an impressive feat right in the midst of a major health crisis. 2021 is "yet another record year for EV sales globally," with an estimated 5.6 million units sold, good for 83% Y/Y growth and a 168% increase over 2019 sales. BNEF has forecast that annual EV sales will approach 30 million units globally by 2030(the Global Automotive Market consisted of 85.32 million units in 2020, and is expected to reach 122.83 million units by 2030).

That means that the world will need a massive ramp up in electric battery production. Indeed, DOE says the worldwide lithium battery market is expected to grow by a factor of 5 to 10 in the next decade. Luckily, the United States appears to be up to the task. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, 13 new battery cell gigafactories are expected to come online in the U.S. by 2025. Apart from Tesla Inc.'s new 'Gigafactory Texas' in Austin, Ford Motors has lined up three gigafactories; one in Northeast of Memphis, TN, and two in Central KY. General Motors plans to build no less than four gigafactories. Meanwhile, SK Innovations plans to build two battery factories in Northeast of Atlanta, GA. Stellantis is teaming up with LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI to build two factories in yet to be determined locations while Toyota and Volkswagen plan to build a gigafactory apiece.

At the center of our green energy drive are solar and wind power, both of which are expected to contribute nearly half of the global power mix by 2050 as per Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The intermittent nature of these renewable sources, however, means that large-scale storage is absolutely critical if the world is to successfully shift away from high dependence on fossil fuels. The surge in lithium-ion battery production since 2010 can be chalked up to huge improvements in the technology from a cost and performance standpoint.

Over the past decade, an 85% decline in prices fueled a revolution in lithium-ion battery technology, making electric vehicles and large-scale commercial battery deployments a reality for the first time in history. The next decade will be defined by a massive increase in utility-scale storage. According to the EIA, operating utility-scale battery storage power capacity in the United States more than quadrupled from 2014 (214 MW) through March 2019 (899 MW). The organization projects that utility-scale battery storage power capacity could exceed 2,500 MW by 2023, or a 180% increase.

Battery Metals Demand Explodes
By 2030, consumption of lithium and nickel by the battery sector will be at least 5x current levels while demand for cobalt, used in many battery types, will jump by about 70%. Meanwhile, diverse EV and battery commodities such as copper, manganese, iron, phosphorus, and graphite—all needed in clean energy technologies and to expand electricity grids—will see sharp spikes in demand.

According to the analysts, in a net-zero emissions scenario, the metals demand boom could lead to a more than fourfold increase in the value of metals production–totaling $13 trillion accumulated over the next two decades for the four metals alone. This could rival the estimated value of oil production in a net-zero emissions scenario over that same period, making the four metals macro-relevant for inflation, trade, and output, and provide significant windfalls to commodity producers.
U.S. Ramps Up Battery Production With 13 New Gigafactories
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 12 Jan 2022, 18:21:48

Plantagenet wrote:Its certainly possible that the CLAIMS that the price for lithium used in EV batteries will go down will be true someday.....but if anyone cares about the facts here the actual evidence from the actual prices from the actual real world shows that the price of lithium is rising very rapidly right now...


I will come down if we discover another Saudi Arabia of conventional cheap oil. It's like everything else in our modern world, from car tires to food in the grocery store, it's all made, processed, and delivered by hydrocarbon chemicals and machines.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 12 Jan 2022, 18:37:44

kublikhan wrote:
The energy transition is driving the next commodity supercycle,

U.S. Ramps Up Battery Production With 13 New Gigafactories


13 new battery cell gigafactories are expected to come online in the U.S. by 2025.

How about this dream. "The US will become a net oil exporter for the decades to come?" How did that work out?

U.S. will import 62% more crude by 2022 due to domestic production declines, says EIA
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/2/17 ... s-says-eia

The US actually did, by some accounts, achieve this goal of being a net exporter at the height of the fracking madness, and at a point, 2011, when the US consumer was busted from the GFC and consumption was back to 1997 levels. But it was all BS, like most of these Hopium stories we see in the media. Most of them are in fact not news stories at all, but investment advertisements lol lol

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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 12 Jan 2022, 20:07:50

U.S. will import 62% more crude by 2022 due to domestic production declines, says EIA
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/2/17 ... s-says-eia
The US total petroleum net trade is still near breakeven, even in 2022. The US will swing from a small net export of petroleum in 2020 to a small net import of petroleum in 2022. This is still a huge shift from the pre-2008 period when the US had a 10+ million barrel a day net petroleum import.
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theluckycountry wrote:The US actually did, by some accounts, achieve this goal of being a net exporter at the height of the fracking madness, and at a point, 2011, when the US consumer was busted from the GFC and consumption was back to 1997 levels. But it was all BS, like most of these Hopium stories we see in the media. Most of them are in fact not news stories at all, but investment advertisements lol lol
I don't know about you, but I consider it to be a huge shift for the US to swing from a net 10 million barrel a day of petroleum imports to around breakeven today. Not hopium, just cold hard facts.

As for lithium battery production, this has been surging for years. Not I am not talking about investment advertisements. I am talking about actual production increasing year over year:

Data collected by Bloomberg shows how demand for the lithium-ion technology in electric vehicles and energy storage has started to quickly increase over the last 10 years. The cumulative demand, at just 0.5 gigawatt-hours in 2010, has soared to roughly 526 gigawatt hours in 2020. That enormous increase is only expected to continue, with demand predicted to reach an unthinkable 9,300 gigawatt-hours by 2030.
High Demand for Lithium-Ion Batteries
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 12 Jan 2022, 21:48:50

kublikhan wrote:As for lithium battery production, this has been surging for years. Not I am not talking about investment advertisements. I am talking about actual production increasing year over year:

Data collected by Bloomberg shows how demand for the lithium-ion technology in electric vehicles and energy storage has started to quickly increase over the last 10 years. The cumulative demand, at just 0.5 gigawatt-hours in 2010, has soared to roughly 526 gigawatt hours in 2020. That enormous increase is only expected to continue, with demand predicted to reach an unthinkable 9,300 gigawatt-hours by 2030.
High Demand for Lithium-Ion Batteries

I have no idea how it will work out, but one of the primary stories encouraging Tesla devotee investors, is that unlike the vast majority of the competition in producing EV's, Tesla is taking the idea of the resources needed for batteries seriously as a longer term strategy, and investing in mining, the resources, and lining up lots and lots of batteries to be used in their cars and stationary backup battery packs.

Clearly, unless the chemistry for batteries can be changed from lithium-x-y-z, to something else, there is going to be a HELL of a lot of lithium demanded by 2030, and continuing to escalate for decades.

OTOH, there's a LOT of lithium in known deposits globally, and they keep finding more over time. Like with most things (like oil) higher prices incents more exploration, generally leading to more resources discovered over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 13 Jan 2022, 11:43:34

Doly wrote:Being a decade off in predictions for global disaster is being pretty accurate.


From a "scientists understanding what scientists mean in terms of error bars", I completely agree with you. But that isn't how the peak oil fear mongering has ever been presented, now has it? 2005, Thanksgiving Day, and Deffeyes was no dummy. Yet he was woefully stupid when it came to the most basic understanding of this issue. Might it be because if he had said "Thanksgiving Day, plus or minus half a century" he wouldn't be the hero of the doomer fanbois back before it became obvious that being a thoroughly educated geologist doesn't gift you with any economic or technical understanding of the other issues involved, and presto, you screw the pooch? Hubris seems to be involved in many of these prognostications, no one thinks Ehrlich is a dummy either, but the Great Dieoff didn't happen by the end of the 1980's, and he is the poster child for demonstrating that a physical science specialist can be beaten like a drum by a lousy social science economist. Why? Hubris most likely..."I'm a scientist, you are but a shadow of my great intellect" type stuff. Oops.

Doly wrote:Even twenty years off is acceptable. That's the view that historians usually take, anyway. I'm not aware of anyone that nailed the start of WWI or WWII to the year, several years before it happened.


20 years is acceptable...TO YOU. Can you detail the distributions used within your LTG version from which a level uncertainty might be calculated? You used TOD estimates of oil and gas, correct? Never in my time at TOD did I see those expressed appropriately as a distribution, so how would you turn their point estimate (let alone WRONG point estimate) into a range that your LTG system functions on? Did you turn it into a range to get at your 20 year estimate, or is that just a best guess? Could you even describe a best fit to a range of uncertainty around the independent variable, was it calculated or assumed, was it continuous or bounded, or a continuous function but arbitrarily bounded (the USGS does their lognormals that way), did you assume no uncertainty and your 20 year number is just a WAG?

Doomers don't generally don't issue their answers in the language of science. If they did, every stinking one of them woud publish the statistical expression appropriate for their inputs and accompanying uncertainty, flowing through to the ouputs, generating probability density functions as answers. Then we would would know if the uncertainty is 20 years or not. Hell, you can't even get them to designate the right independent variables, so any of this conversation is just pie in the sky hopes and dreams when it comes to them getting anything right.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 13 Jan 2022, 11:48:48

theluckycountry wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Its certainly possible that the CLAIMS that the price for lithium used in EV batteries will go down will be true someday.....but if anyone cares about the facts here the actual evidence from the actual prices from the actual real world shows that the price of lithium is rising very rapidly right now...


I will come down if we discover another Saudi Arabia of conventional cheap oil.


Good thing that wasn't required to create a larger oil producer than Saudi Arabia or gas producer than Russia then, giving the world plenty of opportunities to do better than just this out of date thinking.

theluckycountry wrote:
It's like everything else in our modern world, from car tires to food in the grocery store, it's all made, processed, and delivered by hydrocarbon chemicals and machines.


Which is the same base reasoning why the world was going to end when peak oilers didn't know the difference between discrete accumulations from continuous resources. Catch up with the times Lucky, continue to enjoy that high powered motorcycle on roads still there and using fuels still available because the wet dreams of your old school thinking didn't come true in 2005 as hope and prayed for by the church members.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 13 Jan 2022, 13:12:05

kublikhan wrote:As for lithium battery production, this has been surging for years. Not I am not talking about investment advertisements. I am talking about actual production increasing year over year:

Data collected by Bloomberg shows how demand for the lithium-ion technology in electric vehicles and energy storage has started to quickly increase over the last 10 years. The cumulative demand, at just 0.5 gigawatt-hours in 2010, has soared to roughly 526 gigawatt hours in 2020. That enormous increase is only expected to continue, with demand predicted to reach an unthinkable 9,300 gigawatt-hours by 2030.
High Demand for Lithium-Ion Batteries

I forgot to mention the role of recycling. Right on queue (re pricing and demand trends and the obvious implications for making a profit), recycling efforts are now getting SERIOUS.

Redwood Materials (a private outfit that I wish would go public), is a leading lithium recycler which will be supplying a LOT of materials annually for Tesla batteries, largely gained by recycling over 90 percent of the contents of various lithium ion batteries.

As the price of lithium rises in response to intensely increasing net global demand through at least 2030, the financial incentives for recycling will only increase.

It certainly doesn't solve the problem, but it certainly helps re putting a cap on the total amount of lithium needed until (hopefully) better chemistries using other materials become practical, in time.

(It wasn't long ago that lithium recycling was seen as largely impractical for financial reasons).

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/12/tesla-c ... ep-up.html

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery ... interview/
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 13 Jan 2022, 13:25:14

Rising lithium prices will destroy any chance of producing cheap EVs

lithium-shortage-may-stall-electric-car-revolution

Who remembers back when Tesla was promising to produce a $25,000 EV for the masses?

Not much talk of that now.

Rising lithium prices are going to derail the dreams of mass producing cheap EVs in the west.

That will end all hope of switching everyone from ICE cars to EVs.

And that means more CO2 emissions and more global warming is inevitable.....

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WOW---what a bummer that is for the planet.....

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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 13 Jan 2022, 17:21:11

vtsnowedin wrote: Note: all three of my Lithium mining stocks are up today. :)


Very good. Just make sure you have a sell rule in place hey.

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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 13 Jan 2022, 17:24:40

Plantagenet wrote:Rising lithium prices will destroy any chance of producing cheap EVs


They were doomed from the outset anyway since

a) They cost more to manufacture than ICE cars, and
b) They cannot be made without oil

Take away the marketing and promises and put in reality and they are a dead end, a rich man's toy.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 13 Jan 2022, 20:38:07

theluckycountry wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: Note: all three of my Lithium mining stocks are up today. :)


Very good. Just make sure you have a sell rule in place hey.

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Not a chance of that. I will let these three ride for at least five years if not ten. I may even add to my bets if downturns make them cheap for a while.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 13 Jan 2022, 20:38:59

theluckycountry wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Or take the current quadrupling of the price of lithium. People all around the world are starting new EV companies and selling many more EVs. This means the demand for lithium is going....hence the price of lithium has skyrocketed. If someone had bought lithium futures a year ago they might've locked in a price just 1/4 of the current market price.
What effect is this having on the price of EV's Plant? I assume they can absorb the shock only so long.
Rising raw commodity prices are putting upward pressure on lithium battery prices. However there are also 2 factors putting downward pressure on prices: economies of scale/technological advancements. And switching to cheaper battery raw materials. There's been alot of talk about the surging cost of lithium but the hikes in cobalt and nickel prices have hurt as well. That's why several lithium battery makers are switching to cobalt and nickel free lithium batteries, they are cheaper. The net effect of all these price pressures was that up until 2021, overall lithium battery prices have been falling. However starting from 2022 and going forward, it seems likely that the rising cost of raw materials will beat out the cost savings of economies of scale/technological improvements and result in rising prices. Of course surging lithium prices will invite new supply to come on line. However it takes years for new lithium mines to start up. And after getting burned by a lithium glut in 2019 that tanked prices, it seems lithium suppliers are taking a more cautious approach to adding supply. Considering the insane number of new lithium battery gigafactories, it seems likely lithium demand will overshoot supply for years.

These cobalt and nickel free lithium batteries are called Lithium Iron Phosphate(LFP). These types of batteries have actually been around for longer than the Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (NMC) batteries. However because NMC batteries offer better energy density and therefore less weight, they were the preferred option up for many EVs until now. Now that cobalt and nickel prices have been spiking, many are switching back to the cheaper LFP lithium batteries. Not only are they cheaper, they are also safer with a lower chance of turning into a fireball. LFPs also last longer than NMCs.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 14 Jan 2022, 13:04:37

Bloomberg and others are forecasting lithium battery prices rising in 2022, possibly 2023 as well, but falling after that.

We expect prices next year will be $3/kWh higher than 2021 prices on a nominal basis. This would mark the first price increase that the battery industry has seen since we began tracking these prices in 2012. Inflation also will affect the outcome for 2022. Once adjusted for real 2022 dollars, we could still see prices fall.

2021 has been a wake-up call for the battery industry, with the realization that we are at a point now where prices may not necessarily fall every year. In the long run, I’m still confident prices in 2030 will be close to half of what they are today, but it may not be smooth sailing to get there.
Battery Price Declines Slow Down in Latest Pricing Survey

Battery module factories have been notified that the prices of cylindrical lithium battery cells will rise again by 5%-15% early next year due to the rising downstream demand for electric vehicles and energy storage, and the trend of battery price hikes may continue into 2023.

Electric vehicles’ costs will wait longer to see substantial reductions
It was previously predicted that the average price of battery packs could fall below US$100/kWh in 2024, by which time, even without subsidies, the selling price and profitability of electric vehicles will be on par with fuel vehicles and will be more cost competitive.

But with average battery prices expected to continue to rise, the US$100/kWh pivot may be pushed back by another two years to 2026, and the EV penetration, carmakers’ profits, and energy storage projects will all be affected.
It Is Rumoured that Lithium Battery Cell Prices Will Rose 5-15% in Early 2022
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 14 Jan 2022, 22:35:53

Already at record levels, lithium prices expected to rise by another 50% over the coming year

ev-makers-brace-for-power-struggle-as-lithium-prices-expected-to-surge-50%/

Once you get into a situation where the price of a commodity is going up, suppliers become reluctant to sell because they think if they hang on and don't sell immediately the price will be higher later in the year. Apparently this is starting to happen in the Lithium market.....this puts a further constraint on supply, and hence the prediction of much higher Li prices by the end of the coming year.

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By jiminity I gots a lithium mine....and I ain't selling it no how no wise until the price goes up 50% more!

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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 15 Jan 2022, 18:43:46

Plantagenet wrote:
Once you get into a situation where the price of a commodity is going up, suppliers become reluctant to sell because they think if they hang on and don't sell immediately the price will be higher later in the year. Apparently this is starting to happen in the Lithium market.....this puts a further constraint on supply, and hence the prediction of much higher Li prices by the end of the coming year.


They can become reluctant for a few months but need to complete sales to show profits before end of quarter or end of year. Also holding out lets your competitor take your sale for himself and perhaps become the preferred supplier.
I expect the industry will have steady growing demand and profitable prices for the next decade or more but no one is going to corner the market and make a big killing.
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