[vtsnowedin]

On demand destruction, the working commuter has little choice unless a car pool is practical or a smaller more efficient car can be substituted. Both seldom the case.
What actually is the demand that is first destroyed is the optional trips that people take that are not driven by necessity. Three trips to the mall in a week can become one once the price of gas begins to hurt. Better planning like doing that shopping on the way home from work vs. a separate trip a day later becomes more then common sense.
The average person can probably reduce their total miles driven by ten to twenty percent when pressed into thinking about it. That ten to twenty percent reduction multiplied by a hundred million drivers will reduce demand enough to drop the price of gas without reducing the days worked or the amount of groceries hauled home.

[Doly]

On demand destruction, the working commuter has little choice unless a car pool is practical or a smaller more efficient car can be substituted. Both seldom the case.

It's my observation that lots of people have a bigger car than they actually need. And for the purposes of commuting, often a scooter, that uses little fuel, would be good enough for the purpose, but most people don't even contemplate the possibility, in spite that some scooters are specifically designed to be comfortable commuter vehicles.

[Pops]

On demand destruction, the working commuter has little choice unless a car pool is practical or a smaller more efficient car can be substituted. Both seldom the case.
What actually is the demand that is first destroyed is the optional trips that people take that are not driven by necessity. Three trips to the mall in a week can become one once the price of gas begins to hurt. Better planning like doing that shopping on the way home from work vs. a separate trip a day later becomes more then common sense.
The average person can probably reduce their total miles driven by ten to twenty percent when pressed into thinking about it. That ten to twenty percent reduction multiplied by a hundred million drivers will reduce demand enough to drop the price of gas without reducing the days worked or the amount of groceries hauled home.

Energy prices are up 33% in the last year, have you changed habits?
We don't drive much normally and only make about half the average income but we have changed nothing.

High fuel price can causes a slight reduction in passenger miles. This reviews studies that indicate a 10% increase in price = 2.5% reduction quickly. But a 300% increase doesn't reduce miles by 75%, just look at 2005-15.


The chart below shows that real GDP was either stagnant or falling for the 10 years of high priced oil —a time when trillions in real estate bubble money and then trillions more in stimulus were attempting to inflate the economy.





The reason is passenger vehicles are only about 25% of consumption if I remember. High fuel prices lead to everything inflation because everything comes from somewhere else, nothing is local. That increased transport cost causes Inflation that drags the economy. It happened just 10 years ago when every delivery had a fuel surcharge.




It is happening right this minute, oil is up and so is inflation—oil price isn't the only factor of course.

Anything that reduces or diverts disposable income by definition lowers other spending, and every bit of that other spending is someone's income
.

[malyessarah71]

With the price of oil above $50 a barrel, political instability in the Middle East on the rise, and little slack in the world oil economy, we need a new energy strategy. Fortunately, a new strategy is emerging using two new technologies.

Gas-electric hybrid engines and advanced-design wind turbines offer a way to wean ourselves from imported oil.

If over the next decade we convert the U.S. automobile fleet to gas-electric hybrids with the efficiency of today’s Toyota Prius, we could cut our gasoline use in half. No change in the number of vehicles, no change in miles driven just doing it more efficiently.

Several gas-electric hybrid car models are now on the market including the Toyota Prius, the Honda Insight and the hybrid version of the Honda Civic.

The Prius a midsize car on the cutting-edge of auto technology — gets an astounding 55 mpg in combined city/highway driving. No wonder lists of eager buyers are willing to wait six months or more for delivery.

With gas-electric hybrid vehicles now on the market, the stage is set for the second step to reduce oil dependence: the use of wind-generated electricity to power automobiles.

If we add to the gas-electric hybrid a plug-in capacity and a second battery to increase its electricity storage capacity, motorists could then do their commuting, shopping and other short-distance travel largely with electricity, saving gasoline for the occasional long trip.

The Heller Approach

[eltonwisk]

If over the next decade we convert the U.S. automobile fleet to gas-electric hybrids with the efficiency of today’s Toyota Prius, we could cut our gasoline use in half.

No change in the number of vehicles, no change in miles driven just doing it more efficiently. Several gas-electric hybrid car models are now on the market including the Toyota Prius, the Honda Insight and the hybrid version of the Honda Civic.

The Prius a midsize car on the cutting-edge of auto technology gets an astounding 55 mpg in combined city/highway driving. No wonder lists of eager buyers are willing to wait six months or more for delivery.

With gas-electric hybrid vehicles now on the market, the stage is set for the second step to reduce oil dependence: the use of wind-generated electricity to power automobiles.

If we add to the gas-electric hybrid a plug-in capacity and a second battery to increase its electricity storage capacity, motorists could then do their commuting, shopping and other short-distance travel largely with electricity, saving gasoline for the occasional long trip.

[eltonwisk]

If over the next decade we convert the U.S. automobile fleet to gas-electric hybrids with the efficiency of today’s Toyota Prius, we could cut our gasoline use in half.

No change in the number of vehicles, no change in miles driven — just doing it more efficiently. Several gas-electric hybrid car models are now on the market including the Toyota Prius, the Honda Insight and the hybrid version of the Honda Civic.

The Prius a midsize car on the cutting-edge of auto technology — gets an astounding 55 mpg in combined city/highway driving. No wonder lists of eager buyers are willing to wait six months or more for delivery.

With gas-electric hybrid vehicles now on the market, the stage is set for the second step to reduce oil dependence: the use of wind-generated electricity to power automobiles.

If we add to the gas-electric hybrid a plug-in capacity and a second battery to increase its electricity storage capacity, motorists could then do their commuting, shopping and other short-distance travel largely with electricity, saving gasoline for the occasional long trip.

[Revi]

The price of gas is actually cheaper than when it cost 25 cents. The value of a silver quarter from that time is about $4.15 now. Gas is not quite at that level yet in most of the country. People are freaking out, but the cost of that particular commodity is about the same or cheaper than it was back in the 60's here in the US. I don't think it will stay that way, but I just heard that because of the refinery fire in Texas gas could go over $4. Maybe as high as $4.15?

https://news.yahoo.com/major-industrial ... p_catchall

[Newfie]

An apology from the Mods.

A couple of new posters contributed but their posts were not approved in a timely manner. Not sure how this slipped by us but slip it did.

Welcome aboard to the new posters.

[Doly]

The reason is passenger vehicles are only about 25% of consumption if I remember.

Really? According to this chart (admittedly, it puts together cars and light trucks, but surely light trucks can't be a big proportion of the fuel), it looks it must be at least half:

https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10566

[vtsnowedin]

On demand destruction, ......
.......././.
The average person can probably reduce their total miles driven by ten to twenty percent when pressed into thinking about it. That ten to twenty percent reduction multiplied by a hundred million drivers will reduce demand enough to drop the price of gas without reducing the days worked or the amount of groceries hauled home.

Energy prices are up 33% in the last year, have you changed habits?

Quite a bit actually. I let Covid lockdowns drive me to fully retire and this year I have reduced even my routine driving by about two thirds. I'm not driving 500 miles a month now vs the 2500= when I was working.

We don't drive much normally and only make about half the average income but we have changed nothing.

High fuel price can causes a slight reduction in passenger miles. This reviews studies that indicate a 10% increase in price = 2.5% reduction quickly. But a 300% increase doesn't reduce miles by 75%, just look at 2005-15.


The chart below shows that real GDP was either stagnant or falling for the 10 years of high priced oil —a time when trillions in real estate bubble money and then trillions more in stimulus were attempting to inflate the economy.





The reason is passenger vehicles are only about 25% of consumption if I remember. High fuel prices lead to everything inflation because everything comes from somewhere else, nothing is local. That increased transport cost causes Inflation that drags the economy. It happened just 10 years ago when every delivery had a fuel surcharge.




It is happening right this minute, oil is up and so is inflation—oil price isn't the only factor of course.

Anything that reduces or diverts disposable income by definition lowers other spending, and every bit of that other spending is someone's income
.

People can't trade in their gas guzzlers the moment the price of gas rises as the cost of a trade is usually about $3000 reguardless of which way you are moving. $3000 will buy a lot of gas even at $4.00/g. So you get the small reduction first from skipped trips and car pooling etc. then if the high prices persist and people finish paying off their present vehicle they will move to the more economical vehicle. I do not recall a price hike for gas lasting anywhere near long enough to turn over of even a quarter of the fleet and today that quarter turnover takes three to four years.
Perhaps this time, with the Biden Administration's fixation on moving to EVs ,they will manage to keep it up until 2024.

[Pops]

The reason is passenger vehicles are only about 25% of consumption if I remember.

Really? According to this chart (admittedly, it puts together cars and light trucks, but surely light trucks can't be a big proportion of the fuel), it looks it must be at least half:

https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10566

You're right, sorry, I should have said passenger vehicles only account for 25% of total oil demand globally.

As a percentage of fuels they are as you say 40%, but there are lots of other uses.

I didn't really make the point very well anyway.
I was trying to say that higher fuel price does cause a small drop in passenger car miles, but you can't escape by simply driving less. Everything comes on ships trains and trucks from somewhere else and they all use oil.


IEA 2018 World Energy Outlook cited here

[Pops]

People can't trade in their gas guzzlers the moment the price of gas rises

Right, they say demand is "sticky" short-term. But longer term you adjust where the kids take their opera lessons, maybe move closer to work (or get a closer job), decided it isn't worth the commute.

Most of the savings anyway is between say, 10 and 20 MPG and even my 1999 7.3 Diesel smoker gets 18. Trading from a typical used 30 to a new 40 mpg is the same 10 mpg but only a 33% improvement rather than 100%.

[vtsnowedin]

You're right, sorry, I should have said passenger vehicles only account for 25% of total oil demand globally.

As a percentage of fuels they are as you say 40%, but there are lots of other uses.

I didn't really make the point very well anyway.
I was trying to say that higher fuel price does cause a small drop in passenger car miles, but you can't escape by simply driving less. Everything comes on ships trains and trucks from somewhere else and they all use oil.

I think you are spot on with that. I think oil prices are the main driver of the present inflation coupled with the tons of easy money the government has put out there. The oil component comes from the fact that oil is used at every point in the creation of a product from the mining of the raw materials (often oil itself as in plastics) to the heating of the factory then on to transport to the oil heated warehouse then on to the retail store or the UPS truck delivering to your door.
Even our food will be effected from fertilizer costs to tractor and farm truck fuel then on into the distribution system.
Having lived and worked during the Carter years I see no reason not to expect 2022's final inflation number to be any less then 15 percent.

[Doly]

I was trying to say that higher fuel price does cause a small drop in passenger car miles, but you can't escape by simply driving less. Everything comes on ships trains and trucks from somewhere else and they all use oil.

Well, as your own graph indicates, passenger cars are in actual fact the bigger chunk of the pie. And if people both drive less and fly less, which is the sort of thing that has been happening in the pandemic, it would definitely make a noticeable difference. Besides, it's also the place where there is more potential room for change.

[theluckycountry]

Oil prices could shoot up to a record $185 per barrel if the European Union acts to impose a full immediate ban on imports of Russian oil, JPMorgan says.

Wednesday, Apr 20, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... o-185.html

Well maybe they will and maybe they wont but they are already half way there. It would seem to me that they are shooting themselves in the foot? Nations forever have been falling over themselves to secure access to oil, and here we have the EU, an oil starved group of western nations turning their noses up at it? Oh it's to punish Putin and make him withdraw, but it won't! He/Russia has all they need to prosecute the war in the Ukraine, it's not like WWII where the American embargo of the Islands of Japan could seriously curtail their industrial expansion. But lets leave the TV set nonsense aside and use our brains for a moment to look at some facts.

- Western leaders know the world is running out of oil and they need to dial back consumption.
- The lions share of consumption is personal automobile travel, little people wasting oil in their cars.
- Using a war as an excuse for drastic social reforms is the oldest trick in the hat.

The covid lockdowns were a good start in the right direction, conspiracy or no, it curtailed consumption.
Right on it's heels we see this new 'Event' that now seriously pushes up the price of oil, and gasoline, more steps in the right direction.

I suggested here a while back that further future lockdowns could well be used to curtail consumption, and that has been happening in China, the worlds biggest consumer now that the US has dropped further towards being a second world nation. These events could be regarded as coincidences, though I for one don't believe in coincidences on this scale.

After facing fierce criticism for continuing to operate in Russia, Nestle has withdrawn some of its brands including KitKat and Nesquik, but will still sell "essential foods".
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659 11 April

Well there you have it, the Russian beast will be brought to heel by denying them kit kat chocolate bars. Meanwhile all of Europe, the UK and America will suffer under exorbitant fuel prices while the Russians sell a reduced amount, at much higher prices. Sounds like a Win Win for Russia

[AdamB]

Oil prices could shoot up to a record $185 per barrel if the European Union acts to impose a full immediate ban on imports of Russian oil, JPMorgan says.

Wednesday, Apr 20, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... o-185.html

Outstanding!! Go extinct you ICE powered antiquities, your time is up!

[vtsnowedin]

Oil prices could shoot up to a record $185 per barrel if the European Union acts to impose a full immediate ban on imports of Russian oil, JPMorgan says.

Wednesday, Apr 20, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... o-185.html

Outstanding!! Go extinct you ICE powered antiquities, your time is up!

A $185 price would be short lived and as ICE cars last fifteen years now on average their extinction is a long ways out. The EV cars need to deliver a' new to salvage yard' cost to own set of statistics that show them being more cost efficient to own then an ICE car before the ICE cars are in any danger. That may very well happen but it has not happened yet.

[AdamB]

Oil prices could shoot up to a record $185 per barrel if the European Union acts to impose a full immediate ban on imports of Russian oil, JPMorgan says.

Wednesday, Apr 20, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... o-185.html

Outstanding!! Go extinct you ICE powered antiquities, your time is up!

A $185 price would be short lived and as ICE cars last fifteen years now on average their extinction is a long ways out.

Sure. So what? The 2008 peak oil (#4 of the 21st) gave us the beginnings of the solution with Volts and Leafs and whatnot, Tesla's meager beginnings, even while the McPeaksters were yucking it up over "Who Killed The Electric Car".

The EV cars need to deliver a' new to salvage yard' cost to own set of statistics that show them being more cost efficient to own then an ICE car before the ICE cars are in any danger. That may very well happen but it has not happened yet.

ICE cars are already in danger. What Elon has managed to do with Tesla is proof of that already, let alone the lesser valued companies trying to catch up, and now the need to begin replacing Russian crude? Oh, something is likely to happen, and while I like a $250 oil floor, it won't be necessary. There will be fits and starts, and something even better might come along (I'm a fan of the idea of fuel cells and hydrogen as well) for that matter.

[vtsnowedin]

In danger yes but not yet. Too few Teslas have made it to the scrap yard to have reliable figures on total lifetime cost per mile. And they may have to include higher fire insurance bills for garages holding them while charging if they can't fix that problem.
But if I was a betting man I'd bet on the EVs winning out within a decade.

[AdamB]

In danger yes but not yet.

I agree. But momentum is momentum, global circumstances and concerns are ongoing and aren't stopping anytime soon, and you might think it is a Jim dandy great idea to blast cubic $$ of discretionary income out the door for something so simple as fuel to get around, some of us don't. I don't begrudge you wasting your discretionary income any way you'd like for whatever reason, I'm hardly one to talk as I waste money on stuff as well.

Too few Teslas have made it to the scrap yard to have reliable figures on total lifetime cost per mile.

Well, when the stupid things don't break because their moving parts are few and far between, why should they be junked? I have like 3 main moving parts on my EV, how many are in the engine alone of that Subaru you recently acquired? I'll bet its more than 3.

And they may have to include higher fire insurance bills for garages holding them while charging if they can't fix that problem.

Sure. Because it isn't as though ICE cars ever burn down their owners garages, right?

But if I was a betting man I'd bet on the EVs winning out within a decade.

A reasonable assumption and time frame. For awhile there I liked CNG and had hopes, but that doesn't seem to have gone anywhere. Myself, I'm interested in the new and improved plug in hybrids, sort of like the old Volt. 40-50-60 miles of electric but a gas engine to do the interstate travels. I have an early model of one of those and it works great, but is light on EV range. And then something like the Leaf can be relatively short range/local and do all the work commuting and grocery getting and whatnot, alleviating the need for a 200 mile range EV. Plus the things are dirt cheap. Were dirt cheap. Assuming a decent recession soon, might update to a longer ranged one if the prices fall far enough.