[AdamB]

You can see the 2nd law of thermodynamics working.

You know, I thought I was going to be able to resist responding to this, one of the silliest threads in the history of a long discredited idea, but then you just had to write this.

Has any one of the trolls ever succeeded to understand the steady state entropy rate balance for control volumes ? And the consequences for oil production exergy ?

No more need to understand what you claim is important as it is to ponder how Santa Claus flies. Keep up the good work, giving peak oilers a reputation for operational and theoretical ignorance.

[Outcast_Searcher]

The price trend gets very volatile, but i assume the production trend gets more stabile.

Says the clown who knows nothing about actual math or science, and can't spell "stable" as well.

But no doubt, what YOU say is credible, even given your track record re ETP.

[suxs]

@ Outcast Searcher

Since my comment is not appearing in the other section, I am repeating for the sake of clarification.

If you don't know that burning fossil fuels produce CO2, do you know anything re climate change?

No, you fail entirely in reading comprehension. Natural gas produces greenhouse gasses - CO2, CH4, N2O - only when combusted!! I responded to the statement that NG is a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2. CO2 is one of the greenhouse gasses emitted from burning NG. This comment makes no fucking sense and is the very definition of a FALSE EQUIVALENCY. Good grief.

Wow. I can't believe it's necessary to provide further clarification to the obvious.

[Outcast_Searcher]

@ Outcast Searcher

Since my comment is not appearing in the other section, I am repeating for the sake of clarification.

If you don't know that burning fossil fuels produce CO2, do you know anything re climate change?

No, you fail entirely in reading comprehension. Natural gas produces greenhouse gasses - CO2, CH4, N2O - only when combusted!! I responded to the statement that NG is a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2. CO2 is one of the greenhouse gasses emitted from burning NG. This comment makes no fucking sense and is the very definition of a FALSE EQUIVALENCY. Good grief.

Wow. I can't believe it's necessary to provide further clarification to the obvious.

And yet, you back your opinions with nothing.

Should I be impressed? I don't think so.

If NG is no issue unless combusted, then WHY, REAL WORLD, all the concern about NG leakage into the atmosphere from broken pipes etc?

[Roxy]

Hey Baudilla,

What do you expect to happen in the next 1-3 years with our economy?

[AdamB]

Hey Baudilla,

What do you expect to happen in the next 1-3 years with our economy?

Well, it is going to crash obviously. Find me a peak oiler who thought it wasn't (let alone an ETP halfwit) and it will be an amazing day.

Just don't ask the logic next question...why do they keep claiming the same thing, for the same reason, and why aren't they ever right? You ask and answer that question, and any thinking person then instantly realizes that bobble heads always nod because that is all they can do.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Hey Baudilla,

What do you expect to happen in the next 1-3 years with our economy?

Since I didn't notice a response from Baudilla, I'll opine with one thing that appears predictable -- Covid-19 impact.

What's disappointing is that as long as Covid-19 isn't brought under fairly good control (like the way things seemed to be going in June), economic growth will certainly be less than it could be. Articles I've seen are talking about a couple points of lost economic growth or so, which is of course MASSIVELY significant.

And the anti-mask, anti-vaxx, conspiracy spreading, "freedom" folks which only make it worse, are screwing up their OWN freedom, re the ability to live life relatively normally, re their behavior toward Covid-19, science, and rationality.

So they're messing up their OWN freedom, and of course, re various conspiracy theories, will continue to claim that other groups, "i.e. collectively 'they'" are "in it together" and "causing it".

If it weren't so pathetic, and Covid weren't killing millions, and the deaths and hospitalizations and long Covid cases march on in huge numbers.

We can hope that delta is the last big wave, but there's no assurance of that and HOPING doesn't actually do much to solve problems of fact, requiring science and technology to be dealt with effectively.

[Baduila]

@roxy:

Define "our". This depends on the country where you live.
Some countries have collapsed: Venezuela, Haiti, Syria, Irak, Libanon, Libya....
Others will follow: India....
Puerto Rico will be the first part of the USA collapsing.

The more oil the economy uses and needs, the sooner the downturn.

[AdamB]

Some countries have collapsed: Venezuela, Haiti, Syria, Irak, Libanon, Libya....
Others will follow: India....
Puerto Rico will be the first part of the USA collapsing.

The more oil the economy uses and needs, the sooner the downturn.

What does the ebb and flow of third world countries have to do with your meaningless graphs?

[Outcast_Searcher]

The more oil the economy uses and needs, the sooner the downturn.

There's the real world, and then there's ETP blowhards.

In the real world WTI is solidly back above 70 on continued US drawdowns.

ETP scammers claimed WTI would be $2 at the end of 2020. How likely is THAT? ETp scammers claimed crude oil would be "unaffordable" at any price it could be pumped for, since the global economy would be so bad.

And that was when we knew nothing of Covid-19, and its drag on the global economy.

In the real world, plug in electric vehicles are projected to be at about 7% of light vehicle sales for 2021, and that's continued to escalate at an accelerating pace. That's over 6 million plug in electric vehicles. First world laws and financial incentives (like lots of credits) will support that.

https://insideevs.com/news/530428/globa ... -july2021/

The less oil is needed to be burned for fuel for running ICE cars, the better for the availability of global crude supplies for things like global petrochemical needs.

Your notions though many, are not worth a penny.

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Mika ... ed_Yum-Yum

But keep posting utter nonsense, as I know you will. Maybe you should branch out into other areas of your deep knowledge. Flat earth proofs, perhaps?

[Baduila]

One month has passed, OPEC+ is stable, keeps its production low and the oil price high.



The world faces an energy crisis, especially car producers are hit. But they have a special name for it, they call it "Chip Crisis".
Some countries run out of natural gas, some out of coal.
Oil production now has a EROI<1. Or should i write EROI<<1 ?

[AdamB]

One month has passed, OPEC+ is stable, keeps its production low and the oil price high.

OPEC must have decided to keep prices high because of...you know...thermodynamics....

The world faces an energy crisis, especially car producers are hit. But they have a special name for it, they call it "Chip Crisis".
Some countries run out of natural gas, some out of coal.
Oil production now has a EROI<1. Or should i write EROI<<1 ?

Seeing as how you haven't made sense since you started this thread, you write whatever you'd like. But until rationing takes place like it did during the real energy crisis of the 1970's here in the States, you'll forgive the rational folks who know better than to confuse JIT delivery problems with an energy crisis.

[Outcast_Searcher]

The world faces an energy crisis, especially car producers are hit. But they have a special name for it, they call it "Chip Crisis".
Some countries run out of natural gas, some out of coal.
Oil production now has a EROI<1. Or should i write EROI<<1 ?

Seeing as how you haven't made sense since you started this thread, you write whatever you'd like. But until rationing takes place like it did during the real energy crisis of the 1970's here in the States, you'll forgive the rational folks who know better than to confuse JIT delivery problems with an energy crisis.

You didn't hear? The world is a giant pile of conspiracy theories. "They" are in charge of everything. The "truth" can only be found on Youtube videos with wildly arm waving (idiotic) con men spewing their theory, sans ANY evidence except, waaaaaaaaaaait for it: OTHER conspiracy theories!!! (And of course, they're completely selfless, aside from all the click revenue they garner from Youtube).

I'm not surprised his ilk would claim that the chip crisis is an energy crises, but shame on me, that's even stupider than I would expect, even from that tribe.

I suppose "they" are the same "them" that, for example, hides the fact that the earth is flat, propagates the Covid-19 reality conspiracy to implant chips in everyone, etc.

Season 23 of Southpark had a bunch of episodes making fun of conspiracy theories in the Covid era. This sort of thing would fit right in.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Re ETP theory and the calendar, here we are under 10 weeks from year-end 2021.

Yes, 12/31/2021, the date ETP predicted oil would be too cheap to be worth pumping, the world would be in a horrible economic depression from lack of goods due to that, and that STI crude oil would be $2 a barrel and rapidly falling.

And yet, in the REAL world, WTI is hanging out solidly above $80 a BBL, and could well still be in an uptrend. And people still gas up, go to work, run their errands, go on vacations, buy lots of consumer crap, etc. BUSINESS AS USUAL, despite the ongoing global Covid-19 pandemic.

And in the real world, the articles I've read which actually make sense, point out that companies aren't yet ready to jump in and open up fracking operations in areas they closed down. There is risk that at some point OPEC could open the spigots again, so it will take higher prices over time to entice them to do that. Because, apparently (I'm not an oil man, this is what I've read) it will take a pretty lot of work drilling a LOT of new wells to get such an area efficiently producing LTO again, even at current prices. Since oil companies are still making a pretty fair amount of money, paying good dividends, etc. (see CVX for example), why should they take the risk?

It's an interesting conundrum. I'm glad I hold oil stocks and a natural resources fund over time, as an inflation hedge.

One thing re crude oil price forecasts that is NOWHERE on the horizon of anyone sane enough to live outside a loony bin is that crude oil is approaching $2 a BBL for a meaningful time frame because it takes too much energy to pump it because "thermodynamics".

[Outcast_Searcher]

Re crude oil prices, the trend, and the lack of new supply, maybe we'll get to test how the global economy does on $120 or $150 crude oil this time around for a meaningful period, depending on how long the oil industry outside OPEC is willing to wait to pile back into oil fracking in a big way.

I'll predict, as usual, and was the case mid 2010 to mid 2014, far more wailing and chest beating than actual serious consequences, aside from inconvenience. (Even if we get to $200, as long as that isn't too quickly.)

And those $120 to $150 prices would be a very GOOD thing, because THAT would really goose EV's in a serious way over time, at least in the US, no government mandates or credits needed. But that coupled with large BEV credits likely coming in the US should make BEV's quite compelling by mid decade, especially if BEV battery prices continue to drop and BEV ranges continue to rise.

[Roxy]

Not sure if oil prices will reach that high as it may crash the economy before that. I also don't think battery prices will fall any further as I once read a story that they will not fall any further. I forget where though.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Not sure if oil prices will reach that high as it may crash the economy before that. I also don't think battery prices will fall any further as I once read a story that they will not fall any further. I forget where though.

So if you think you read a story with NO credibility, no references, etc., then it MUST be true?

Yet re a 5 second google search on "battery prices dropping", your intuition looks VERY wrong. Like that of flat earthers, vaccine deniers, etc. But heaven forbid you spend 5 minutes verifying the reality your intuition says is "right" in your own mind.

https://news.mit.edu/2021/lithium-ion-b ... costs-0323

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3499 ... drop-2023/

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/electr ... ices-fall/

[Roxy]

I’m sure that those prices are going to continue to fall in this inflation environment. I thought you were such an educated economists that you would have figured that out.

[Tanada]

I’m sure that those prices are going to continue to fall in this inflation environment. I thought you were such an educated economists that you would have figured that out.

Man lives in the sunlit world of what he believes to be reality. But... there is, unseen by most, an underworld, a place that is just as real, but not as brightly lit... a Darkside.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I’m sure that those prices are going to continue to fall in this inflation environment. I thought you were such an educated economists that you would have figured that out.

Learn to proof read as well as a third grader and, perhaps, deal with facts and CREDIBLE references for your positions, like an adult, and THEN get back to us.

In the mean time, I won't be holding my breath, based on what you've "contributed" sans facts or any meaningful support for your claims, thus far.