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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 09 May 2021, 16:12:04

Tight oil plays are turning into tight gas plays as the gas to oil ratio is increasing.

https://www.oilystuffblog.com/forum/for ... ng-lighter
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 09 May 2021, 16:16:46

Yoshua wrote:Tight oil plays are turning into tight gas plays as the gas to oil ratio is increasing.

https://www.oilystuffblog.com/forum/for ... ng-lighter

And yet, in the real world, for anyone other than the ever-wrong fast crash doomers like you, lots more NG as a transitional fuel, re producing electricity, is a VERY GOOD THING, given that the amount of CO2 NG produces is lower than for oil or coal.

But keep braying. I believe everything you say, no matter how often you're wrong, and over what (more and more extended) time frame you're wrong for. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 09 May 2021, 16:18:58

Baduila wrote:The price data support my model.
You are the redneck. Present a statistical relevant dat set to support your idea. Demonstrate that the temperatures in reservoirs increase.

And yet, in the real world, you've never demonstrated SQUAT re evidence that holds up over time. So there's that.

But of course, let's not have YOU report anything statistically significant, given your track record. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 09 May 2021, 16:21:45

Baduila wrote:Have you never heard of the difference between current $ and constant 2021 $ ?

And yet in the real world, Shorty, the original prevaricator, re ETP, tried to use nominal dollars to justify ETP.

And folks like Adam, Pops, me, and others, pointed out how inflation added up a LOT over six decades, again and again. :idea:

But keep braying about BS. No doubt, you'll get it right eventually. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby aadbrd » Mon 10 May 2021, 10:51:07

How many advocates of this theory remain? Is it one or two, absent its founder? This thread therefore is aimed at trying to get literally a couple people to finally lose their religion? That tends not to be how theories die. There will always be a handful of die-hards who hold on, even the flat-earthers. Complete abandonment is really not the bar to use to determine when a model has been discredited.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Roxy » Mon 10 May 2021, 12:31:05

Actually, there are a lot of advocates to this theory, we just don’t post. I think the map is right on and will revert back to the line once all this money printing loses its affect.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 10 May 2021, 15:20:36

Roxy wrote:Actually, there are a lot of advocates to this theory, we just don’t post.


Afraid of the laughter that follows when you "advocate" perhaps?

Roxy wrote: I think the map is right on and will revert back to the line once all this money printing loses its affect.


So...when the map said that oil prices were going to average $0/bbl last year, you figure there is a recovery from that to some number >$0/bbl? No one has claimed the curve is suddenly going to reverse, unless you hidden "advocates" have invented another equation that does this?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Roxy » Mon 10 May 2021, 16:54:14

You may be laughing now but it’s almost guaranteed you won’t have the last laugh. Also, I don’t recall anyone saying the price of oil is going to zero.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 10 May 2021, 18:20:33

Roxy wrote:You may be laughing now but it’s almost guaranteed you won’t have the last laugh.


I've been laughing since humanity breezed through the claimed Great Die-Off of the late 80's. Were you doing the same, or are you new to the doomer scene? The last 6 claimed peak oils didn't bother me much either, nor the LTG claims of running out of oil, natural gas and aluminum, or all of Harold Campings world ending claims.

Certainly giggling it up over a bad understanding of thermodynamics doesn't make me laugh, but those who don't get it pretending they do, now THOSE folks are a riot!

Roxy wrote:Also, I don’t recall anyone saying the price of oil is going to zero.


Then obviously you don't know anything the silly thermodynamic ETP nonsense discussed on this site. Feel free to review the archives at your leisure, and come back when you know more (or really, less) about thermodynamics. Alleged thermodynamics anyway.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 10 May 2021, 19:31:53

Roxy wrote:You may be laughing now but it’s almost guaranteed you won’t have the last laugh. Also, I don’t recall anyone saying the price of oil is going to zero.

Gee, if only perma-doomers who are CONSTANTLY WRONG FOR DECADES had track records re them saying something happening in the future was "almost guaranteed" that weren't ABOSOLUTELY HORRIBLE. And what color is the sky in your world?

Shorty claimed WTI was going to roughly $2 by the end of 2021 in his ETP paper, version 2, published in March 2015. An Re the graph on page 34, the Magenta line. The curve throughout 2021 was pointing SHARPLY down for that projection..

So with WTI at about $65 and trending UP in mid 2021, how close to $0 due you need the claim to be to call it wrong?

:roll:

Yeah, but pretend you're at ALL credible. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Tue 11 May 2021, 05:56:35

Both Adam and Outcast have never understood the physics; they never discussed it or had a question for thermodynamics. In addition, they are not able to read a graphics.

This is an original graphics from HG for the affordable oil price.
Image

The graphics clearly shows ranges. But both guys insist, that the only relevant line is characterized by the light blue dots. Despite there is a writing "maximum affordable price" at the dark points of the graphics.
And Adam writes, the light blue points give 0$ for the 2020 oil price. Crazy.

They understand nothing. Discussing with them is a waste of time.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Pops » Tue 11 May 2021, 12:01:04

I can't figure why you guys would post THAT chart.
The projected price of oil using the "model" is north of $200 barrel about now.
If oil were $250/bbl it would have indeed crossed into unaffordability for many uses and there would indeed be a loss of demand, no doubt about it.

BUT IT AIN'T!

I overlaid an inflation adjusted price line, what short plotted against was nominal price which means nothing—his original flaw. His projected price is only close the 20 years of the run up to the frack glut, for most of the last 80 years the real price has been in the $25-50 range barring shortage. You could move that line back 40 years to the embargoes and it would fit as well It explains and projects nothing.

The original idea was fine, higher price means less demand. He started out looking at nominal price in the run up and tried to project the future. The frack glut sacked the price and broke most predictions. So the story changed into some doomer metaphysics to keep the report selling.

When extraction and refining uses enough to affect available supply (his original argument) and lower supply affects prices, then demand will fall. Everything else is crap.

There is exactly as much energy available to me in a gallon of gas today as there was in a gallon 10-20-50-100 years ago. It may take 10 times the energy to get it to me, but if the price is right why would I or the economy care? I pay 1000 times the caloric content to get January tomatoes.

Prove me wrong.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 11 May 2021, 16:11:16

Baduila wrote:Both Adam and Outcast have never understood the physics; they never discussed it or had a question for thermodynamics. In addition, they are not able to read a graphics.

This is an original graphics from HG for the affordable oil price.
Image

The graphics clearly shows ranges. But both guys insist, that the only relevant line is characterized by the light blue dots. Despite there is a writing "maximum affordable price" at the dark points of the graphics.
And Adam writes, the light blue points give 0$ for the 2020 oil price. Crazy.

They understand nothing. Discussing with them is a waste of time.

As if graphs and numbers showed nothing. :roll: What are you, five years old?

OTOH, you're full of shiite. Show how I understand "nothing" re physics with CREDIBLE sources.

Meanwhile, in the real world, clowns like you claiming cooling of individual oil fields makes you a total joke. And in the real world, CO2 continues to cause a HEATING problem, not a cooling problem, in the world overall. And in the real world, every second, the sun continues to pour a HUGE amount of energy into the earth. The earth is NOT a closed system.

But I know -- you can continue to flap your ignorant lips, so I'm skeered. :P

But keep spewing totally retarded shiite. No doubt, SOME clueless clowns who have triple-downed on nonexistent short term doom, despite ALL the evidence given track records of the doomers on any meaningful time frame will believe you. :roll:

If only wishes if the ignorant made dreams come true. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 11 May 2021, 16:28:36

Baduila wrote:Both Adam and Outcast have never understood the physics;


Yeah, they let engineers skip all those pesky physics classes. But they teach us how to read temperature logs to know that your cooling reservoir theory is crap. Funny huh?

Baduila wrote:They understand nothing. Discussing with them is a waste of time.


And those temperature logs supporting your cooling earth theory...you know...data...your experience with them is what...exactly? :lol:
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 13 May 2021, 03:00:31

@Pops
This is one form of shorts original graphs, and i believe, about 98% of all discussions on ETP referred to this graph.
It displays the oil price in current dollars (red dots) and the solid blue line is a projection of the current price. Red dot and solid blue line do not include inflation. But the dotted black line and the light blue line include inflation. They have been set up using energy intensity diagrams (GDP vs primary energy use). Energy intensity lines include inflation and technical progress. This diagram shows that the solid blue line can not continue after about 2012, instead the oil price will follow roughly the blue arrows. Short did not know if the arrows will be more near the black or light blue point when he set up the graph.
Short has made some errors, and one of them was to believe that the oil price decay in 2014 has been caused only by energy problems, and fracking has been of no importance. So the light blue points seemed to form the valid line, and for some years all facts did support him.

But fracking had its part in the price decay, the oil price could increase after 2017, and shorts theory seemed to be wrong for the people only looking on the light blue dots of this single diagram.

But two things remain:
1. Shorts thermodynamic calculation is based on something, which is much harder than a rock:
The 2nd law of thermodynamics in the form of the „steady state rate balance equation“. See M.J.Moran/H.N.Shapiro: „Fundamentals of engineering thermodynamics“. Unfortunately, the physics background is heavy to understand for most people, and impossible to explain on a forum.
His calculation is correct, but some of the input parameters are not accurately known.
2. The oil price moves in the range of his calculations and goes slowly down after 2014, the inflation corrected price decreases since 2011. Most people believe, because oil production gets more expensive, the oil price must go up. But it doesn‘t.
3. Energy for production is nearly invisible in the economy. All products have a price, but in most cases nobody sees how much energy has been spent to generate the product. But economies run on energy. If one form of energy production uses more energy than it generates, it will be stopped (at least in the long run).

The gallon of gasoline has about the same energy content as ever, you are right. Evidently, you own a car and you can buy expensive tomatoes. You are a lucky one, neither homeless nor living in a developing country.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 13 May 2021, 11:01:59

Baduila wrote: Short did not know if the arrows will be more near the black or light blue point when he set up the graph.
Short has made some errors....


Yes....that was why his idea was laughed off the internet, and he began scrubbing all traces of it from even his own website.

That is a clue to those with the ability to think logically. Those that don't have a clue how a temperature log invalidates their version of the same bad idea...well....they suffer other issues I imagine.

Baduila wrote:But fracking had its part in the price decay, the oil price could increase after 2017, and shorts theory seemed to be wrong for the people only looking on the light blue dots of this single diagram.


Shorts theory said the average price of oil would be $10/bbl in 2019 and $0/bbl in 2020. So it didn't "seem" to be wrong. It just was, being laughed out of a real technical review just another indicator. as to the his "theory". For those, like you, who apparently missed the $0/bbl in 2020 claim.

Baduila wrote:The gallon of gasoline has about the same energy content as ever, you are right. Evidently, you own a car and you can buy expensive tomatoes. You are a lucky one, neither homeless nor living in a developing country.


What does Pops locale have to do with the energy in a gallon of gasoline anywhere in the world? And "lucky" is perhaps a foreigners way of not wanting to say "American exceptionalism"? :lol:
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Mon 24 May 2021, 09:43:46

Image

Without comment.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby aadbrd » Mon 24 May 2021, 10:48:39

Baduila wrote:Without comment.


Stop posting graphs without comment. If there's anything that's been communicated to you is that what seems obvious to you in these graphs is not obvious to others. Don't be lazy.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 24 May 2021, 15:58:33

Baduila wrote:Image

Without comment.

So since your comments / claims are TOTALLY non-credible over time, try "without comment". :roll:

No doubt, that will work for you. :lol:

Big hint: Oil (re WTI) isn't approaching $0 in 2021. It's hanging around $65, with demand increasing as Covid-19 tends to get better, over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 24 May 2021, 16:10:53

Baduila wrote:Without comment.


Smartest thing you've ever posted.
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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