[JuanP]

"From the Earth to the Moon: Biden's China policy doomed from the start"
https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/03/19 ... the-start/

"By the end of 2019, China became the world’s leader in terms of diplomacy, as it then boasted 276 diplomatic posts, many of which are consulates. Unlike embassies, consulates play a more significant role in terms of trade and economic exchanges. According to 2019 figures which were published in ‘Foreign Affairs’ magazine, China has 96 consulates compared with the US’ 88. Till 2012, Beijing lagged significantly behind Washington’s diplomatic representation, precisely by 23 posts.
Wherever China is diplomatically present, economic development follows."

This is another great achievement for China's government and people under President Xi Jinping's leadership. China is now the # 1 country in the world diplomatically, with the largest number of diplomatic posts, 276, and the largest number of consulates, 96. China is fast becoming the number one country in the world in almost every way that matters.

The USA is still the number one country in military expenditures, number of nuclear and biological weapons, weapons sales, illegal invasions of and attacks on foreign countries, and military bases in foreign countries. Also, for a handful of years more, the USA will remain the largest economy on the planet, though not on PPP terms, but that will stop being the case before the end of this decade.

[evilgenius]

"'World has never seen this much wealth created in just one year': China tops US in number of dollar billionaires"
https://www.rt.com/business/516970-chin ... lionaires/

China now has more billionaires than any other country in the world, including the USA. China also minted more new billionaires in 2020 than all the rest of the world put together. China also experienced more economic growth in absolute terms in 2020 than any other country in the world.

I guess one could say that Trump's trade war against China was a complete and utter failure. I expect Biden's ongoing trade war against China to be a complete and utter failure, too. China has developed and grown to a point where no country or coalition of countries in the world can prevent it from becoming the largest economy and most powerful country on the planet before this decade is over.

I continue to think that the best policy toward China for the US is to engage them. Fostering the growth of independent initiative is a real solution to collectivism. It doesn't have to be that China abandons collectivism, they just need to respect individualism along with maintaining whatever degree of collectivism works for them. They need to find out what the balance is, and write it into law. Countries having rules that even authoritarians have to follow is a good start to ridding themselves of authoritarianism. That's how we might get the right kind of revolution to take place in China, one which actually frees the Chinese people from top down authoritarianism while also respecting how their culture assumes some level of collectivism as normal. They are never going to become a clone of the US, and they shouldn't. I don't, however, see why they shouldn't be trade, or closer, partners with the US throughout the 21st Century.

It seems to me that the real fear among Americans over China is not their form of government. Americans may be jealous of China, or afraid of what they would be like as a Bogeyman. Americans seem to want a particular kind of confrontation. They don't seem to be looking for peace. They don't want some kind of economic solution, unless it comes with a clear winner. All of this hyping of China foots that bill. But nobody is asking what China wants with a decimated US. They just assume the Chinese see things the same way that Americans do. This argument seems to be about how to win, when winning doesn't have a very satisfying definition. War usually arises from such fearful symmetry. Everybody says they don't want that kind of war, but they are usually lying when they say that. As long as the worst realities of war aren't placed right in front of people, and, sometimes, when they are, people love war. Never mind that those who start these sorts of wars don't always finish them. We always listen to those who want to start these things.

[JuanP]

"China was LARGEST recipient of FDI in 2020: Report"
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN29T0TC

"Reuters) - China was the largest recipient of foreign direct investment in 2020 as the coronavirus outbreak spread across the world during the course of the year, with the Chinese economy having brought in $163 billion in inflows.

China’s $163 billion in inflows last year, compared to $134 billion attracted by the United States, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a report released on Sunday.

In 2019, the United States had received $251 billion in inflows and China received $140 billion.

China’s economy picked up speed in the fourth quarter, with growth beating expectations as it ended a rough coronavirus-striken 2020 in remarkably good shape and remained poised to expand further this year even as the global pandemic rages unabated."

China continues to beat the crap out of the USA by every metric that matters. These numbers are astounding! China went from having a little more than half the USA's 2019 FDI to having $29 billion more in just ONE year! At this rate, China will be better and bigger than the USA in almost every political, diplomatic, social, economic, and financial statistic before this decade is over. The USA is not just becoming a Third World country, it is becoming a socially and politically unstable failed state. With senile Biden and his neoliberal and neocon team in place we can now expect things in the USA to deteriorate increasingly faster. It look increasingly unlikely that the US Dollar can hold on to its value and position until the end of this decade; the whole American aconomic, financial, social, and political systems could go poof at any minute.

And to top it all, Biden is now saying that he will run in 2024. That is a wet dream come true for its enemies and competitors. Thank the gods that I don't own a single dollar denominated asset!

[dissident]

The US FDI number slump is a transient effect. So the 2019 figures are still relevant. China has not quite beaten the USA in FDI inflows just yet.

But the relative size difference is shrinking and underscores the large size of China's economy.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-c ... r-xinjiang

ZeroHedge typically froths at the mouth against China, but this article is not exaggerating the importance of China's consumer market.

[JuanP]

"America losing the future to China"
https://asiatimes.com/2021/03/america-l ... -to-china/

The USA is running out of time if it wants to remain the most powerful country in the world. At the rate things are going China will win the race by the end of this decade. The USA needs to sacrifice the American Empire and invest domestically in R & D if it wishes to stay on top. With senile, mentally disabled, Joe Biden as US President, and a bunch of delusional neocons and neolibs behind him, I honestly don't think the USA stands a chance. The USA will retain the capacity to nuke human civilization to oblivion for some time, though, at the risk of being completely destroyed itself, of course.

I am very happy that Uruguay is in the Deep South of the Southern Hemisphere, and not worth nuking, though I would expect the USA to nuke Brazil and Argentina in an absolutely worst case scenario, and I planned my preps accordingly.

[dissident]

Read the following GAO report:

https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-378

According to blowhard Bolton, Russia stole US hypersonic tech. Yeah, by reading physics textbooks. Losers.
There is no way that 10 years of R&D will bring America the commanding heights it craves so bad. It is slipping
and badly. And this slipping has long term problems driving it. The primary one is that it is evolving into a
PC idiocracy where participation trophy retards are hired over people with actual merit for a slew of nonsensical
reasons.

The US dollar as world reserve currency that enables the funny money printing racket to work for now is also on
borrowed time. People around the world have to keep believing that the US dollar is better than gold. But that
cannot hold if the US can't even "Make America Great Again" by repatriating production back to its soil and giving
up on the neo-commie globalism project. America's elites can't have their cake and eat it too. Either they rule
the global economy as they throw the American people under the bus, or they invest in America itself. They are
clearly not interested in the latter given the foaming at the mouth and rabid reaction to Trump. And please all
of you D. Party nincompoops, Biden is not in any way better than Trump.

[JuanP]

"China's Q1 GDP growth 18.3% year on year, highest in three decades"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1221234.shtml

The Chinese economy is firing on all cylinders. The Chinese economy could grow 10% or more this year; I've read estimates of up to 12.3%. The Chinese only have official quarterly growth statistics for the last three decades, but this is quite likely the largest year on year quarterly economic growth in millennia for the Chinese civilization, which is the longest lasting continuous human civilization which has ever existed anywhere in the world. And China's economy didn't even experience a technical recession last year, with the economy contracting only in January and February, but growing since March, and growing 2.3% in 2020. Last year's Q1 year on year contraction was 6.8%.

The coming April tourist season also will beat all time records with ticket sales and hotel reservations at an all time high. High speed rail tickets for the holiday sold instantly went they went on sale online, crashing several computer systems. China, of course, has the largest domestic tourist market in the world, which creates the largest human migrations in our species' existence.

The Chinese economic growth in the last 40+ years is unprecedented in human history in speed, length, and scale. According to UN statistics, China has lifted more than 1,000,000,000 people out of poverty in my lifetime, and is responsible for more than 70% of global poverty eradication in the last 50 years.

[JuanP]

"China successfully launches core module for its space station, kicking off intense construction phase"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1222443.shtml

As of today, the Chinese have their own space station in low earth orbit.

The Russians also announced a couple of weeks ago that they will cease participating in the ISS program in 2024 when their contractual obligations expire and launch their own space station in 2025. The ISS probably won't last much longer.

[jedrider]

China's Efforts to Recruit Semiconductor Talent Hit by Taiwan Ban
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/taiwanese-ban-hits-chinas-efforts-to-recruit-semiconductor-talent

I think China erred in destroying the independence of Hong Kong and threatening Taiwan. The price they will pay is that Chinese expats will not want to return.

[JuanP]

"China-US trade rises 50% Jan-Apr, highlighting inseparable bilateral economic ties"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1222869.shtml

"In the first four months of the year, China’s trade with the US rose 50.3 percent year-on-year to 1.44 trillion yuan ($222.8 billion), making the US its third largest trading partner after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and EU economies, according to data from the General Administration of Customs on Friday.

China’s exports to the US rose 49.3 percent while imports gained 53.3 percent, and the trade surplus with the US was 653.89 billion yuan, an increase of 47 percent.

Although growth slowed a little bit compared to the two countries' trade rise in the first three months of this year, it is still “under expectation” in the eyes of several Chinese economists, who stressed that it shows that China is still in a stable position to implement the China-US phase one trade deal."

Trump's trade war with China seems to have been completely pointless, and the Biden-Harris administration policies don't seem to be doing any better.

[JuanP]

"Size matters in geopolitics, so the west is excited China’s population growth is ending. But here’s how Beijing will solve it"
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/523467-geopoli ... on-growth/

"So does all this mean China is doomed? Not necessarily. Coverage of China’s economic prospects are more than often pessimistic and there is a wishful over-tendency in western circles to forecast “doom.” Reversing a negative trend in fertility rates is difficult due to the massive economic changes that would require, but that does not mean Beijing does not have a toolbox to mitigate the problem.

The first one is the growing role of automation and robots in factories. As wages rise in China and the economic structure shifts, manufacturing is already becoming a less desirable career; strides forwards in artificial intelligence and automated manufacturing are already surging in China’s factories. Achieving that is a key part of the country’s industrial strategy, negating claims that its economy will remain strictly reliant on manpower, especially when it is becoming more educated and skilled. The state is already proposing the idea of subsidizing parents to have more than one child, raising the retirement age and scrapping family-planning policies, too."

China's population grow is stopping as I type. I think this is great news for China, but, unlike most of humanity, I don't consider population growth a positive or necessary thing, but rather a counterproductive one. That is one of the many reasons I had a Vasectomy instead of producing biological offspring. I consider the world to be overpopulated, and have thought so all my life.

[dissident]

Indeed, the slowing of China's population growth is a good thing for that country. They have more size than they need and their objective should be development per capita and not bulk, low-grade development measured in aggregate. But a consequence of the rapid decline in population growth is that they are developing a geriatric wave that will strain their budget. Just as in the west, an ageing population shifts tax money from other sectors to service the elderly including their health care needs. And the core problem is that the ratio of workers who pay taxes to retirees who do not is going down.

But China is not going to be crippled economically by this. They can probably apply the tried western fix of running up the debt. For dealing with a transient ageing population budget crisis that is justified. In the west, it is used as a way to boost GDP growth. We are seeing this BS in action in the US right now. The inflation is already appearing.

[JuanP]

"The West has created an imaginary, evil China for its people to hate and fear – and it’s working" By Maitreya Bhakal, an Indian commentator who writes about China, India, the US, and global issues.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/523673-west-cr ... vil-china/

" The West is prosperous today not because of hard work or perseverance, but because of centuries of imperialism, colonialism, and wealth hoarding. China, though, is on the path to becoming a superpower without committing such atrocities. This is what really riles them up; after all, jealousy is the root of most hatred.

China’s rise shows that an alternative, multi-polar world is possible, a world not besieged by endless wars and genocidal sanctions, a world where poverty and hunger are distant memories – a world where people can live happily without being afraid that a superpower from across the planet may bomb them into oblivion because they have something it wants. And the US cannot allow that."

An article about the most populous nation on the planet written by a citizen of the largest democracy in the world and published by RT, a news organization from the biggest country in the world.

[evilgenius]

China's Efforts to Recruit Semiconductor Talent Hit by Taiwan Ban
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/taiwanese-ban-hits-chinas-efforts-to-recruit-semiconductor-talent

I think China erred in destroying the independence of Hong Kong and threatening Taiwan. The price they will pay is that Chinese expats will not want to return.

The Taiwanese will certainly have lots of reasons not to believe the Mainland Chinese promises. It makes you wonder what sort of things could make them look past that? The Mainland Chinese must think there are things, and that they can manipulate them. The big one is what happens if there is a revolution in Mainland China and they technically aren't communist anymore, but may still not be as respectful of Taiwanese rights as they ought.

[JuanP]

"China successfully launches Tianzhou-2 for first space station supply mission despite initial delay"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1224808.shtml

"At 8:55 pm on Saturday, the Long March-7 Y3 carrier rocket carrying the Tianzhou-2 cargo spacecraft took off from the Wenchang Satellite Launch Center. After a flight time of around 604 seconds, the spacecraft separated with the rocket and entered preset orbit. At 9:17 pm, the solar panels onboard the spacecraft smoothly unfolded, with all functions in normal operating condition, marking the success of the first launch of a spaceship to the space station core cabin, according to the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA.)"

So, the Chinese have sent their first shipment of noodles to their new space station.

It has been an extraordinary month for the Chinese space program with the successful launch of the space station's Tianhe core cabin, Tianwen-1's soft landing on Mars, and the Zhurong rover kicking off its journey on Mars after driving off the landing platform, and now a Long March carrier rocket took off from Wenchang spaceport on the tropical island of Hainan, sending the Tianzhou unmanned cargo spacecraft into preset orbit for a space station supply mission. Four great space exploration achievements in a month!

[JuanP]

"China allows couples to have a 3rd child in order to fix the country’s aging population problem"
https://www.rt.com/news/525257-china-al ... ird-child/

"China to allow couples to have 3 children, step 'leading to fertility-friendly society'"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1225003.shtml

The Chinese turned the One Child policy into a Two Child policy in 2015. Now they have changed it to a Three Child policy after the first results of last year's census came in a few weeks ago showing that China has one of the lowest fertility rates and fastest aging populations on the planet. I don't expect this policy to influence China's declining fertility rate in any significant way, just like the 2015 policy change made absolutely no difference. The Chinese may end all their population family planning eventually since they are no longer needed.

China's population is expected to peak this year or next and start declining after that. I think this is great news for the world, in general, and China, in particular. I am very grateful to the Chinese for their family planning policies; there would be around 600 million more people on the planet if it weren't for them, according to the latest estimates. It's not enough to stop the Sixth Mass Extinction or save the biosphere from civilization ending anthropogenic destruction, but it will slow both enough to make a world of difference to my wife's life and mine.

[Outcast_Searcher]

China's going down.

Yeah. Because of all the great reasons, credible citations, etc. that you offered.

OTOH, despite their faults, they produce a hell of a lot, have a tremendous amount of productive scientists being produced (educated and trained) and working on all sorts of important problems, and the Chines government thinks strategically.

Which is more than I can say for much of the first world, much less a tremendous amount of the third world.

Just from momentum and sheer size, China will leave the US economy way in the dust over time. Look at what's happened to car production over the past decade, just for one obvious example.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/car-production

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... production

So over the last decade, Chinese auto production went from about 10 million cars per year to over 20 million prior to the pandemic. And re the forecast through 2023, headed back to near the highs around 25 million in 2016 - 2017.

For the US, OTOH, the trend has been decidedly down over the last decade. Declining from around 4 million cars a year until about 2017 once the recovery from the great recession was more or less complete, to around 2.5 million before the pandemic. And the forecast through 2023 is only for the production to recover to around 2.5 million a year.

(For each chart, click on the 10Y link on top of the chart, and then click on the "Forecast" tab near the top of the page to get a good graph to compare the numbers / trends).

[Outcast_Searcher]

Reversing a negative trend in fertility rates is difficult due to the massive economic changes that would require, but that does not mean Beijing does not have a toolbox to mitigate the problem.

The first one is the growing role of automation and robots in factories. As wages rise in China and the economic structure shifts, manufacturing is already becoming a less desirable career; strides forwards in artificial intelligence and automated manufacturing are already surging in China’s factories. Achieving that is a key part of the country’s industrial strategy, negating claims that its economy will remain strictly reliant on manpower, especially when it is becoming more educated and skilled.

Automation would also help greatly with elder care. And with providing labor where lots of creative skill or education isn't needed.

Speaking of which, given the problems finding workers and the growing cost of workers post-pandemic, I expect a big push for automation in the US -- the economic case for that is tremendous, even as big strides are being made in the tools that enhance automation functionality and flexibility like vision systems, AI, chip power, and the flexibility of robots themselves re doing lots of tasks where perceptual awareness helps greatly in places where everything isn't exactly the same each cycle (like kitchens, warehouses, etc).

[Newfie]

Whether or not China is going down remains to be seen. They do have some big challenges.

Very small arable acreage per capita
A decreasing and aging population meaning a drop in workers and government income
Need to import several commodities such as soy beans and coal which will make it difficult to sustain a rising standard of living
A widespread assumption that their star is rising, meaning citizens will be upset if/when the standard of living falls.

Everyone has problems, just how bad Chinas problems are remains to be seen.

[Tanada]

Whether or not China is going down remains to be seen. They do have some big challenges.

Very small arable acreage per capita
A decreasing and aging population meaning a drop in workers and government income
Need to import several commodities such as soy beans and coal which will make it difficult to sustain a rising standard of living
A widespread assumption that their star is rising, meaning citizens will be upset if/when the standard of living falls.

Everyone has problems, just how bad China's problems are remains to be seen.

I think if China is smart they are going to be working on alternative food sources. We have known for decades that farming using solar energy and rain if a very inefficient way of capturing hydrocarbon and Protein energy. Sugars and fats are all hydrocarbon molecules in different arrangements and Proteins are various hydrocarbons with an Amine (nitrogen) group tacked on here or there to make them react differently in your body chemistry. There have been plans from at least the 1950's to manufacture what some like to call CHON, artificial food molecules made up of the four main building blocks Carbon-Hydrogen-Oxygen-Nitrogen. Of course real food also includes a long list of trace minerals like Manganese, Iron, Sulfur and so on and so forth. They even did an experiment with IIRC USAF astronaut pilots before the military space program was merged into NASA. The pilot trainees were locked in a biometric lab that kept track of their food intake, excretion via the bodies waste systems and exhaled CO2 and other gasses. These "volunteers" were kept locked in this small room for a week each and fed nothing but an artificial protein rich syrup. Despite all their biological needs being met the test subjects agreed without exception that the food scientists needed to come up with a better plan as the syrup left them unsatisfied and thirsty. Surely with 60 years of advancements in food science we could do a better job today.

BTW this was not tofu or insects or any of the odd suggestions you see posted from time to time, this was artificially assembled molecules duplicating natural food on the smallest possible level. One of the biggest complaints was without biting and chewing the test subjects did not get the sensation of actually consuming food. That is one of the reasons when people drink a giant soda pop with 500 kcals of sugar in it they never register it as energy mentally. Eating 500 kcal of french fries or hamburger sandwhich "feels" satisfying in terms of knowing you have eaten in a more visceral way. The same goes for adult beverages, your 500ml can of beer has a slew of kcal in it from both the maltose and the ethanol. Except for the part your kidneys catch and excrete the ethanol is grabbed by your liver and converted back into glucose by your molecular processes. This process requires oxygen which is why alcohol makes you feel light headed and drunk, your brain is literally running on reduced oxygen levels and not working correctly.

Now picture a machine in a factory. Water and air go in along with trace minerals and out the other side come bite size pieces of artificial food made with wind, solar or nuclear electricity. The factory packages the food in convenient meal size bags and when you eat one you get all your caloric and nutritional needs met from vitamins to minerals. No more need to farm vast stretched of arable land or turn natural grasslands into grazing grounds for livestock. The only real population feeding concern is cost of energy and efficiency of the machinery. Given how horribly inefficient chlorophyll is at capturing solar energy and making it into carbohydrates and proteins and even worse ow bad livestock is at converting plant matter into meat you don't even have to get the efficiency very high to compete with what nature does for us currently. Really the best place for these factories would be at the sewage treatment plant where they could recapture the carbon and protein rich waste so they would need even less energy to operate.

Yup I tell you, artificial food as your sewage treatment facility is the wave of the future.