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THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 22 Jan 2021, 11:06:06


December 2020: 414.02 ppm
December 2019: 411.76 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 22 Jan 2021, 11:08:20

Image

Up, Up and AWAY! We are essentially at the same level today as we were at the one month before 2020 peak. So for all those who were wishing or praying really hard for Covid to slow down the rate of increase, sorry no dice.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 27 Jan 2021, 12:02:07


January 26: 415.46 ppm
January 25: 415.71 ppm
January 24: 416.53 ppm
January 23: 416.16 ppm
January 22: 415.36 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 27 Jan 2021, 12:03:39


Week beginning on January 17, 2021: 415.18 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 413.80 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 391.63 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby The_Forbin_Project » Wed 27 Jan 2021, 15:18:02

hmm, according to my records we have approx 24/25 ppm per decade increase in CO2.

given that figure of 413.8ppm a year ago then add 2.4 ppm ( lower figure) we get a 416.2. Observed as stated was 415.18

1ppm should equate to 2.1 billion tons of carbon or 7.5 Gt CO2 .

30 C average global temprature should theorectically stop photosynthesis
we have approx 14/15 C average today.

lets say we increase CO2 to get to that level, another 15 C should do it. That should be about 0.19 % or 1900ppm of atmosperic CO2 if current models are correct.

or we wait 600 million years to allow the Sun to warm enough that 150 ppm would be sufficent .

no ice sheet at the north pole with 600ppm and figures I have seen suggest none at the south either if we get to 900ppm .

interesting times

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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 28 Jan 2021, 22:13:49

Tanada wrote:
Week beginning on January 17, 2021: 415.18 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 413.80 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 391.63 ppm


That despite a year of Covid and all the political promises is still 24 ppm over a decade. I just looked it up, here are some numbers to play with.
annual average CO2
2020 414.01
2010 389.90
2000 369.55
1990 354.39
1980 338.75

414.01-389.90=24.11
389.90-369.55=20.35
369.55-354.39=15.16
354.39-338.75=15.64

Clearly 2000 was a transition point where we switched from an average of under 1.6 annually to over 2.0 annually and the acceleration continued with the 2010 decade reaching 2.4 annual increase rates. I vaguely recall websites like WattsUp making a huge deal of the fact that 1998 was a super el nino year but seeing what has happened since that fabled year it is clear we are rapidly increasing our emissions rate or natural CO2 sinks like surface waters of the oceans are becoming saturated and taking in less CO2 than they were before. The growth rate in ppm increase was just over 5 for the first decade of the century and just under 4 for the decade just ended. So good news, we are not accelerating quite as fast as we did in the aughties, bad news we are still far above where we were just three decades ago in annual increases. In other bad news India and Indonesia each have very large land areas with hundreds of millions to over a billion humans living in their territory most of whom do not have a western lifestyle but very much want to have one like it in terms of profligate energy consumption. Both India and Indonesia are building a boatload of new coal burning power stations to help their citizens make this transition. Not to mention China is still adding more than one new coal burning power plant a week to their energy capacity burning more and more coal. Sure their newer plants do have scrubbers to lower their NOx and SO2 emissions to limit acid rain down wind but the CO2 is still blowing straight into the atmosphere wild and free. China is also working hard to sell power plants to its allied African nations like Tanzania, which bodes ill for the global climate by adding ever more coal consumption. At this point Europe and North America could close every remaining coal burning power station and the rate of increase would barley slow as other nations are racing to catch up with our lifestyles. It doesn't really matter if they are racing to a European or American energy use rate at this point as either one requires a vast increase in energy production and distribution.

I know I am a broken record on this, but time to stop playing games with BS like the Paris Climate Agreement which are meaningless and move towards adaptation for the changes we are causing. It is time to stop pretending we care and actually freaking do something solid and constructive, and I don't mean solar farms that do not have massive battery storage to make them viable replacements for grid power.

One simple act by Government would have a huge impact, simply declare that all flood insurance for property less than 5 meters above mean sea level are null and void and no claims need to be paid by any insurance carrier for those policies now or in the future. Build near sea level at your own risk and watch the lowlands be mostly evacuated and returned to nature in a decade or less. That would have a much more profound effect on public thinking than all the truly meaningless climate treaties put together starting from the Kyoto accords of thirty years ago.

Pause and think about that, Politicians have been promising action since 1992. In the almost three decades since then the decade scale of CO2 emissions has climbed from 15.16ppm to 24.11ppm! Enough with the meaningless kick the can down the road BS already! For those about to try blaming the "other party" this has been a mutual BS system. We have in the USA had both parties in power back and forth for all three decades and no matter which one sits in the hot seat nothing has gotten better, on the contrary it keeps getting worse!

At the rate we are going we will hit
430 ppm CO2 around 2030
455 ppm CO2 around 2040

Projecting any further out is relatively meaningless because too many things might change by the time another three decades pass, but coal power plants are designed to last 40-60 years so assuming all the ones built in the last decade and the ones under construction in the coming decade will remain active at least until 2040 seems like a pretty safe bet. Once people have a taste for steady predictable electricity on their grid they will do away with any politicians they see trying to take it away. Even after a devastating war like WW II the governments who came to power or remained in power all busted their butts to restore the electricity grids as a first step to normalcy for a reason. Citizen or serf, they all expected to be able to at minimum turn on the lights. The more western nations also expected to power their home entertainment devices like radios and then Televisions just as much as modern folks expect to power their iPads and cell phones.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 28 Jan 2021, 22:45:37

I think you meant to say 440 ppm by 2030 and 465 ppm by 2040.

Also, I think that your assumption about flood insurance and its influence on people is pretty optimistic based on my 30 years of living in Miami Beach and how f***ing stupid and ignorant most people are in places like this. People will still be buying and selling homes here until they get flooded, and even after getting flooded. Prices may collapse at some point, probably after getting hit by a big hurricane and storm surge, but for every idiot that leaves we got two new even more idiotic newcomers. The situation is completely hopeless. The world is full of fools! I do agree with the idea of cancelling flood insurance, but I don't think it would have as big an impact as you imagine.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Jan 2021, 23:26:59

The_Forbin_Project wrote:hmm, according to my records we have approx 24/25 ppm per decade increase in CO2.

given that figure of 413.8ppm a year ago then add 2.4 ppm ( lower figure) we get a 416.2. Observed as stated was 415.18

1ppm should equate to 2.1 billion tons of carbon or 7.5 Gt CO2 .

30 C average global temprature should theorectically stop photosynthesis
we have approx 14/15 C average today.

lets say we increase CO2 to get to that level, another 15 C should do it. That should be about 0.19 % or 1900ppm of atmosperic CO2 if current models are correct.

or we wait 600 million years to allow the Sun to warm enough that 150 ppm would be sufficent .

no ice sheet at the north pole with 600ppm and figures I have seen suggest none at the south either if we get to 900ppm .

interesting times

Forbin


That isn't how radiative effects of CO2 work. Going from 140 ppmv to 280 ppmv preindustrial CO2 caused a 3C temperature increase. From 280 ppmv circa 1750 to 560 ppmv circa 2050-2100 depending on who's projection you believe will bring another 3C temperature increase to circa 18C. After that as we burn everything burnable when we reach 1120 ppmv will bring us a third increase to circa 21C global average. This is where it gets interesting because we don't project there being enough fossil fuels to get us all the way to 2240 ppmv that it would take to get to 24C global average. In point of fact over the entire 1.5 billion years there has been life hat we know of world average temperatures have not exceeded 23C degrees as world average. Most of this is simply the fact that the frequencies reflected by CO2 become saturated around the 820 ppmv level after which all additional CO2 can do is slightly broaden its saturation bands.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby The_Forbin_Project » Fri 29 Jan 2021, 12:40:21

hello tanada,

I am just a student in the feild of climate research. I looked at the forcing studies and ones I found had a straight line from a curve in the lower concentrations that projected up to 1000 ppm - looked linear to me.

If you have a link or two for study I would appreciate it.

In other news today I see the dafs are shooting up so are the bluebells , no heads yet but a bit early on this 11 C January day, both are March flowers , or were ....

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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 29 Jan 2021, 21:52:37

The_Forbin_Project wrote:hello tanada,

I am just a student in the feild of climate research. I looked at the forcing studies and ones I found had a straight line from a curve in the lower concentrations that projected up to 1000 ppm - looked linear to me.

If you have a link or two for study I would appreciate it.

In other news today I see the dafs are shooting up so are the bluebells , no heads yet but a bit early on this 11 C January day, both are March flowers , or were ....

Forbin


Sure you can start with this government link and work out more search terms from the context in the article.
Climate.gov wrote:It's not quite true to say the estimates haven't budged since the first assessment, though. In 2007, for the 4th IPCC report, international scientists decided that enough evidence had come in to rule out equilibrium sensitivity lower than 4°F. So why did scientists involved in the latest IPCC report bump the lower bound of equilibrium sensitivity to carbon dioxide back down to near 3°?

One reason is that recent research suggests that cooling due to aerosols over the twentieth century has been less than previously estimated. If the cooling effect of aerosol pollution over the past century had been large, then sensitivity to carbon dioxide would also have been relatively large, in order to account for the observed warming trend. If aerosols have provided less cooling than previously thought, then sensitivity could also be somewhat smaller than previously thought.

A second reason for lowering the low-end of the range is that Earth's surface temperature during the 2000-2010 decade—while still the warmest decade on record—was relatively stable. The lack of additional surface warming in the past decade despite increasing carbon dioxide levels provided some additional support for somewhat lower sensitivity of global temperature to carbon dioxide increases.

As with all probability-based estimates, there’s what’s likely to happen and what is possible. Although the “long tails”—extremely low and extremely high values—of warming remain possible, climate experts think it is extremely unlikely that equilibrium warming from doubled carbon dioxide will be less than 2°F, and very unlikely that it will be more than 11°F.

Given the wide range of possible warming and the broad scope of potential impacts to natural resources, food and water supplies, and infrastructure, the key question we have to ask ourselves may not be "How certain are we of future change?" but instead, "How much risk of disruption are we willing to tolerate?"

Climate.gov
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 11 Feb 2021, 22:17:39


January 2021: 415.52 ppm
January 2020: 413.61 ppm


For those playing along at home January 2021 is already higher than the 2020 annualized average of 414.01 ppmv
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 11 Feb 2021, 22:19:09


Week beginning on January 31, 2021: 417.12 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 414.50 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 392.19 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 11 Feb 2021, 22:19:55


February 10: 417.79 ppm
February 09: 416.50 ppm
February 08: 416.02 ppm
February 07: 416.48 ppm
February 06: 417.83 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 03 Mar 2021, 22:56:46


Week beginning on February 21, 2021: 416.31 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 413.96 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 392.32 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 03 Mar 2021, 22:57:34


March 02: 417.98 ppm
March 01: 417.86 ppm
February 28: 416.67 ppm
February 27: 416.51 ppm
February 26: 416.33 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 06 Mar 2021, 14:37:50


February 2021: 416.75 ppm
February 2020: 414.34 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 06 Mar 2021, 14:39:18


March 05: 418.21 ppm
March 04: 418.23 ppm
March 03: 418.30 ppm
March 02: 417.98 ppm
March 01: 417.86 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 07 Mar 2021, 21:16:07


Week beginning on February 28, 2021: 417.97 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 414.07 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 392.12 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 08 Mar 2021, 01:09:54

It feels like yesterday when we were waiting for years for CO2 to reach 400 ppm, and arguing about whether we would be able to stop the increase before that or not. I never believed we would. Time flies by! Thanks for your work on this thread, Tanada, I appreciate it even if I find it extremely depressing. I guess 500 ppm is the new frontier now, 450 ppm will come too fast!
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 09 Mar 2021, 21:03:44

JuanP wrote:It feels like yesterday when we were waiting for years for CO2 to reach 400 ppm, and arguing about whether we would be able to stop the increase before that or not. I never believed we would. Time flies by! Thanks for your work on this thread, Tanada, I appreciate it even if I find it extremely depressing. I guess 500 ppm is the new frontier now, 450 ppm will come too fast!


Average annual CO2
1965 320.04
+12
1974 330.19
+7
1981 340.14
+6
1987 349.31
+8
1995 360.97
+6
2001 371.32
+5
2006 382.09
+4
2010 390.10
+5
2015 401.01
+4
2019 411.66

So the recent trend has been 10 ppmv ever 4.5 years, multiply by 4 to reach 450 ppmv gives 18 years from 2019 aka 2037.
Note that these are annual averages, not annual peak numbers. For 2019 the annual average was 411.66 ppmv but the peak over the year was 414.86, over 3 ppmv higher because of the shape of the growth curve.
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