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The Methane Thread pt. 2

Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 21 Feb 2021, 22:25:36

Sure the number jumped, but how much is 15 parts per billion worth?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 03 Mar 2021, 22:59:10

Image
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 06 Mar 2021, 14:36:59


November 2020: 1891.9 ppb
November 2019: 1875.6 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 17 Apr 2021, 20:58:10


December 2020: 1892.3 ppb
December 2019: 1874.6 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 01 Jun 2021, 22:07:44


January 2021: 1893.4 ppb
January 2020: 1873.4 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 09 Jun 2021, 22:33:42


February 2021: 1888.9 ppb
February 2020: 1873.1 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 10 Jun 2021, 14:28:12

Your persistence is appreciated.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 07 Jul 2021, 09:51:12


March 2021: 1888.5 ppb
March 2020: 1875.1 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 11 Aug 2021, 12:38:21


April 2021: 1891.3 ppb
April 2020: 1876.0 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 02 Sep 2021, 16:52:18

Image
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 30 Sep 2021, 16:51:00


May 2021: 1891.6 ppb
May 2020: 1874.4 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 08 Oct 2021, 22:14:23


June 2021: 1888.8 ppb
June 2020: 1872.0 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 05 Nov 2021, 21:35:45


July 2021: 1886.6 ppb
July 2020: 1871.7 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 08 Dec 2021, 01:14:53


August 2021: 1890.9 ppb
August 2020: 1876.6 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 08 Jan 2022, 11:03:53


September 2021: 1900.5 ppb
September 2020: 1884.7 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 08 Jan 2022, 11:09:31

For those following along this thread the annual peak should be this reporting date, typically in September or October. These are obviously new highs but as always Methane is complicated because it A) Has a much stronger impact on GHG insulating effects and B) has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime. If we can get our act together and stop leaking so much methane into the atmosphere from man made sources the numbers would be expected to level off and return to a normal rather than increasing format.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 08 Jan 2022, 17:33:06

Tanada wrote:If we can get our act together and stop leaking so much methane into the atmosphere from man made sources the numbers would be expected to level off


With Russian built Gas pipelines going in all over Europe? Gas is part of the big transition away from GW emissions. It reminds me of the Montreal Protocol where they successfully eliminated Ozone depleting CFC gases from refrigerants and underarm sprays by replacing them with nasty HFCs.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 110737.htm

Another piece of the puzzle. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
https://hackaday.com/2021/11/10/sulfur- ... top-using/
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 10 Jan 2022, 22:19:14

theluckycountry wrote:
Tanada wrote:If we can get our act together and stop leaking so much methane into the atmosphere from man made sources the numbers would be expected to level off


With Russian built Gas pipelines going in all over Europe? Gas is part of the big transition away from GW emissions. It reminds me of the Montreal Protocol where they successfully eliminated Ozone depleting CFC gases from refrigerants and underarm sprays by replacing them with nasty HFCs.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 110737.htm

Another piece of the puzzle. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
https://hackaday.com/2021/11/10/sulfur- ... top-using/


In this case We means the human species, after all we all live on the same planet and a Cock up by one is paid for by all. I am not overly worried about Russian pipelines, in general they funded the construction but the local governments have to inspect and approve them so it is not a case of slap dash Soviet era construction passing because the chief inspector is on the take and drunk as well.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Tue 11 Jan 2022, 10:52:02

Tanada wrote:Image


This graph shows the infamous "hiatus" about which the deniers were bleating so hard. But it is basically an illusion. There was a surge of warming going into the 1990s that then slowed down. But the underlying trend has been upward and there was no cooling trend which would require the temperatures to go back down to early 1980s levels. The Arctic is thawing and the methane (and CO2) is coming out. The reservoir of carbon in the permafrost is huge.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/frozenground/methane.html

There is a huge amount of carbon stored in permafrost. Right now, the Earth's atmosphere contains about 850 gigatons of carbon. (A gigaton is one billion tons—about the weight of one hundred thousand school buses). We estimate that there are about 1,400 gigatons of carbon frozen in permafrost. So the carbon frozen in permafrost is greater than the amount of carbon that is already in the atmosphere today. That doesn't mean that all of the carbon will decay and end up in the atmosphere.


But that is not the whole story:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12541-7

we place total oceanic CH4 emissions between 6–12TgCH4yr−1, narrowing the range adopted by recent atmospheric budgets (5–25TgCH4yr−1) by a factor of three. The global flux is dominated by shallow near-shore environments, where CH4 released from the seafloor can escape to the atmosphere before oxidation. In the open ocean, our models reveal a significant relationship between ∆CH4 and primary production that is consistent with hypothesized pathways of in situ methane production during organic matter cycling.


So 9 Gt of CH4 per year which is bloody substantial compared to the amount of CH4 in the atmosphere (scale it by the mixing ratio against CO2 and then again by the molecular weight). It is oxidation by OH in the troposphere and photolysis in the stratosphere that limits CH4. But the emissions are not marginal and the Arctic shelf permafrost source is enormous. We are likely to see much higher CH4 spikes in the future. Since the IR absorption of CH4 is about 70 times that of CO2 this is big deal. The radiative transfer effect will be concentrated in the northern hemisphere and towards high latitudes reflecting the mixdown of these emissions.

The fun is only getting started.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 12 Feb 2022, 21:35:10


October 2021: 1907.2 ppb
October 2020: 1890.1 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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