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Peak Coal Happened in 2014: IEA

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Peak Coal Happened in 2014: IEA

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 14 Dec 2020, 08:23:12

Image

As we can all see from the coal consumption graph here from the BP while North America and Europe have decreased their coal consumption over the last decade 150 million tons the Asia Pacific has increased its consumption 300 million doubling the decrease for the "western world".

As several people keep pointing out CO2 is not going anywhere but up, and if not for the mass conversion of many American coal burning plants have converted over to burn natural gas in its place. Despite all claims by the fossil fuel industry while Natural Gas is less of a CO2 source it is still a CO2 source. Even worse all the thousands of miles of new pipes and new wells producing the gas inevitably leads to thousands of new leaks. Even if every leak is only 0.1% each leak is of nearly pure CH4 gas which has a warming impact of 25 to 100 times an equivalent quantity of CO2, depending on the source used for the calculation. At the low end the leaked CH4 has a global warming potential that more than cancels the 50% reduction in CO2 emissions that occur when it is burned compared to coal.

Therefore between the 600 million tons of additional coal being burned and the Natural Gas consumption that has also grown with great rapidity I don't see humanity turning away from tipping Earth over into a new climate long before we come to our senses. Thus once again I plea, put your funds into adaptation instead of pretending yet again that we will change our ways of burning everything we can ignite in our quest to consume every flammable we can access. Humans are at their core are pyromaniacs from the days of Adam to now and will likely always be so.
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Re: Peak Coal Happened in 2014: IEA

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 19 Dec 2020, 07:21:13

A Sino Anglo cold war will help peak coal along:

“China Endures Worsening Electricity Shortages In Name Of Punishing Australia”
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/c ... -australia

"Coal is among the latest in a growing list of major Australian exports hit by severe restrictions in China, also including commodities like cotton, timber wine, lobster, and barley. While Chinese citizens might be able to forgo luxuries for a while like Aussie wine as well as lobster, coal is quite another thing especially given the country is currently facing a broad coal shortage…“Entire provinces are taking the surprise step of limiting industrial power and even cutting heating in government offices, expected to take effect Dec.11, according to the publication. This also includes limits imposed on entertainment and shopping venues like malls and move theaters, which is impacting their hours of operation. So ultimately this shows Beijing is so intent and devoted to punishing Australia that it will make its own citizens suffer in the downward spiraling spat that began last Spring when Canberra joined US calls for an independent probe into China's handling of COVID-19 as the place of origin for the pandemic. As it stands coal is Australia's third-largest export to China and is the latest to face severe and opaque import regulations, as Reuters revealed early this week: "Chinese media outlets including The Global Times and Caixin on Monday reported China’s top economic planner had granted approval to power plants to import coal without clearance restrictions, except for Australia," according to the report. The restrictions have reportedly left dozens of coal-laden ships idling off China's ports”
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Re: Peak Coal Happened in 2014: IEA

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 20 Dec 2020, 23:16:13

REAL Green wrote:A Sino Anglo cold war will help peak coal along:

“China Endures Worsening Electricity Shortages In Name Of Punishing Australia”
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/c ... -australia

"Coal is among the latest in a growing list of major Australian exports hit by severe restrictions in China, also including commodities like cotton, timber wine, lobster, and barley. While Chinese citizens might be able to forgo luxuries for a while like Aussie wine as well as lobster, coal is quite another thing especially given the country is currently facing a broad coal shortage…“Entire provinces are taking the surprise step of limiting industrial power and even cutting heating in government offices, expected to take effect Dec.11, according to the publication. This also includes limits imposed on entertainment and shopping venues like malls and move theaters, which is impacting their hours of operation. So ultimately this shows Beijing is so intent and devoted to punishing Australia that it will make its own citizens suffer in the downward spiraling spat that began last Spring when Canberra joined US calls for an independent probe into China's handling of COVID-19 as the place of origin for the pandemic. As it stands coal is Australia's third-largest export to China and is the latest to face severe and opaque import regulations, as Reuters revealed early this week: "Chinese media outlets including The Global Times and Caixin on Monday reported China’s top economic planner had granted approval to power plants to import coal without clearance restrictions, except for Australia," according to the report. The restrictions have reportedly left dozens of coal-laden ships idling off China's ports”


Sounds to me like pure extortion. If Australia doesn't comply with whatever China wants then China will simply import coal from other suppliers. After all India, Indonesia are both major sources and China itself has hundreds of small but currently idled coal mines that can be placed back into production by government fiat which is what closed them to begin with.
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Re: Peak Coal Happened in 2014: IEA

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 21 Dec 2020, 07:19:02

Subjectivist wrote:
REAL Green wrote:A Sino Anglo cold war will help peak coal along:

“China Endures Worsening Electricity Shortages In Name Of Punishing Australia”
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/c ... -australia

"Coal is among the latest in a growing list of major Australian exports hit by severe restrictions in China, also including commodities like cotton, timber wine, lobster, and barley. While Chinese citizens might be able to forgo luxuries for a while like Aussie wine as well as lobster, coal is quite another thing especially given the country is currently facing a broad coal shortage…“Entire provinces are taking the surprise step of limiting industrial power and even cutting heating in government offices, expected to take effect Dec.11, according to the publication. This also includes limits imposed on entertainment and shopping venues like malls and move theaters, which is impacting their hours of operation. So ultimately this shows Beijing is so intent and devoted to punishing Australia that it will make its own citizens suffer in the downward spiraling spat that began last Spring when Canberra joined US calls for an independent probe into China's handling of COVID-19 as the place of origin for the pandemic. As it stands coal is Australia's third-largest export to China and is the latest to face severe and opaque import regulations, as Reuters revealed early this week: "Chinese media outlets including The Global Times and Caixin on Monday reported China’s top economic planner had granted approval to power plants to import coal without clearance restrictions, except for Australia," according to the report. The restrictions have reportedly left dozens of coal-laden ships idling off China's ports”


Sounds to me like pure extortion. If Australia doesn't comply with whatever China wants then China will simply import coal from other suppliers. After all India, Indonesia are both major sources and China itself has hundreds of small but currently idled coal mines that can be placed back into production by government fiat which is what closed them to begin with.


Subjectivist, you are correct. The Chinese have the capacity to replace 100% of their Australian coal imports from other sources, both foreign and domestic, and they are already doing that. You left out Russia, Mongolia, and Africa as other sources for increased coal imports. Also, the Chinese are transitioning from coal to natural gas, hydroelectricity, and other renewable energy sources.

Their is only one Australian import that the Chinese would not be able to replace 100% in the very short term future, and that is iron ore, but there are medium and long term solutions to that problem, too, including the recycling of scrap iron both in China and abroad, which could potentially provide tens, if not hundreds, of times as much iron.

The Chinese don't need anything from Australia, and if the Australians don't realize that soon and stop fucking with China they will regret it for the rest of their lives. Without exports to China and Chinese tourists and students, the Australian economy would be looking forward to the worst economic depression in the country's history.
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Re: Peak Coal Happened in 2014: IEA

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 21 Dec 2020, 09:10:12

“China's power supply is struggling as winter temperatures plunge. Is the ban on Australian coal to blame?”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-18/ ... l/12993418

“So is the ban on Australian coal to blame? Shane Oliver, AMP Capital's chief economist, told the ABC it was quite possible that the power cuts had a link to the coal ban, but that it was impossible to know for sure. "The disruption to the supply of coal into China as a result of the bans on Australia may also be playing a role in that and causing rationing," he said. "It is quite normal to have cold winters at this time of the year in China, so one would assume that's been allowed for." Have we hit peak China? As trade and political tensions simmer, speculation swirls about what's really going on between the two nations — and what's next on a Chinese sanctions "hit list". However he said it was premature to assume China's trade tactics against Australia had backfired. "I think all countries which engage in trade wars tend to pay some price for it," Dr Oliver said. "Trade wars are not desirable, they do result in both sides losing: obviously one side loses because they don't get the supply and quality of supply that they're used to, the other side loses because they lose an export market." Jun Mao, a thermal coal analyst at Jiangsu Jinying Capital Management, told the ABC the power shortages were a sign of supply and demand issues in China.”
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