Baduila wrote:In November Peak Oil has celebrated its second birthday.
Pops wrote:Funny that the oil price is falling in tandem with increasing surplus oil from high intensity extraction.
Coincidence surely.
Baduila wrote:Some images need an update. First The original HillsGroup Price diagram with a 2020 data point.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Baduila wrote:The last one contains the price projection together with production projection.
Both projections are full on track.
Baduila wrote:This graph is from their commentary pages. Please dig and post the graph you find.
Tanada wrote:charmcitysking wrote:Hi All
Is anyone able to provide an honest, concise post about the current status of the ETP model?
Am I right in saying that it is predicting an average maximum affordability price for consumers in 2017 of around $54? And if that's correct, can anyone confirm what the yearly average price for a barrel of oil was for (so far) 2017? And it's something in the high 40's for next year, correct? Apologies - there's just countless threads on this topic and much of it is two sides personally attacking each other (not that I mind, I actually find these things quite entertaining ).
I've been a casual observer here for a few years - certainly not as "fired up" about the topic of Peak Oil as I was when I first watched Mike Ruppert's "Collapse" but the topic is still intriguing to me and still read the forums often.
Also, I see people call Rockman a 'oil industry shill' or apologist a good bit, but I recall reading his concept of a Peak Oil dynamic years back and that has always stuck with me and kept me floating around this site - so "mucho thanks" for that, RM!
Those who never believed in the ETP model point out it has now failed in its predictions for 2017 while the authors and their acolytes are trying to move the goal posts to give the ETP model a few more months for the price of oil to start a terminal decline ending at $0.00/bbl over the next few years.EIA Outlook wrote:North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $63 per barrel (b) in November, an increase of $5/b from the average in October. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $57/b in 2018, up from an average of $54/b in 2017.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in 2018. After averaging $2/b lower than Brent prices through the first eight months of 2017, WTI prices averaged $6/b lower than Brent prices from September through November.
STEO
So EIA numbers demonstrate that for 2017 Brent has averaged $54/bbl while WTI prices averaged about $50/bbl over the first eight months of the year. Final numbers won't be out for at least another month, perhaps longer. Back in the early days of ETP Shorty posted links to the graphs in his model runs. See this one in particular where he claimed 2012 was the start of the doom slide to oblivion.
In that graph
2020 maximum oil price is $12.50/bbl
2019 maximum oil price is $26.00/bbl
2018 maximum oil price is $47.50/bbl
2017 maximum oil price is $52.50/bbl
These are eyeball estimates and may be off $1.50 here or there but nothing further than that.
IOW the model is now at best on life support and in the opinion of those who never bought into it already broken while the acolytes are still insisting that next year average oil prices will fall in line with the model predictions no matter what the world economy or geopolitical situation is during the next three years. Under the model by 2025 Oil will have negative economic value making it far more trouble to use than it is worth, despite the fact that in 2017 the world economy desires near 95 MM/bbl/d of crude input.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Baduila wrote:Please cite original comments from shorty, not comments from people who have heard from other people what shorty has said.
The Maximum Consumer Price curve is curtailed at 2020 at $11.76/ barrel.
Pops wrote:The Maximum Consumer Price curve is curtailed at 2020 at $11.76/ barrel.
https://web.archive.org/web/20150103150 ... n2_022.htm
Baduila wrote:Up to now ETP is right, only 1.5 years missed.
Baduila wrote:Crazy. I did not know that it is possible to resurrect the dead (pages).
Basduila wrote:Richard Feynman on the Scientific Method:
In general we look for a new law by the following process. First we guess it. Then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what would be implied if this law that we guessed is right. Then we compare the result of the computation to nature, with experiment or experience, compare it directly with observation, to see if it works.If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science.
Up to now ETP is right, only 1.5 years missed.
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