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THE Poland and Energy Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 30 Aug 2012, 16:03:20

pstarr
you are twisting my words. What I was saying is that in Poland they made hand waving comments about huge resources based on an idea of thickness, extent and TOC (from 1 or 2 old wells). As the drilling commenced what they found was that the high clay content has hindered fracs which means although there will be gas recovered it will not be anywhere near as large as originally anticipated.
What I meant in referencing this to the Russia case is that it will almost certainly suffer a similar fate as seems to be indicated by some of the poor results in the early wells. Again there will be gas and oil but almost certainly not as much as touted in the grandious press releases.
The reserves could still be significant, just not earth shaking I suspect.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 02 Sep 2012, 13:37:52

rockdoc123 wrote:pstarr
you are twisting my words. What I was saying is that in Poland they made hand waving comments about huge resources based on an idea of thickness, extent and TOC (from 1 or 2 old wells). As the drilling commenced what they found was that the high clay content has hindered fracs which means although there will be gas recovered it will not be anywhere near as large as originally anticipated.
What I meant in referencing this to the Russia case is that it will almost certainly suffer a similar fate as seems to be indicated by some of the poor results in the early wells. Again there will be gas and oil but almost certainly not as much as touted in the grandious press releases.
The reserves could still be significant, just not earth shaking I suspect.

There was a lot of noise here in Poland about this gas.
Our scientists were very conservative from the beginning (as the subject is known to them for 3 decades), then American oilmen came and have promised plenty of pears on the pine tree.

There was a drilling rush but most of wells have shown to be dry and others only shown small trickle.
Plenty of farmers got annoyed meantime due to contamination of groundwater.
Now it seems that recoverable reserves are in range of 2 - 5 % of what American engineers thought.
Fortunately God (if there is such a guy) in his wisdom have saved Poland from that sh*t, so drillers are losing interest and going home and our farmland will remain intact.

From perspective it looks like a nice investor scam and nothing more.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby seenmostofit » Sun 02 Sep 2012, 15:14:37

rockdoc123 wrote:pstarr
you are twisting my words. What I was saying is that in Poland they made hand waving comments about huge resources based on an idea of thickness, extent and TOC (from 1 or 2 old wells). As the drilling commenced what they found was that the high clay content has hindered fracs which means although there will be gas recovered it will not be anywhere near as large as originally anticipated.
What I meant in referencing this to the Russia case is that it will almost certainly suffer a similar fate as seems to be indicated by some of the poor results in the early wells. Again there will be gas and oil but almost certainly not as much as touted in the grandious press releases.
The reserves could still be significant, just not earth shaking I suspect.


References for RockDocs general statement.

April, 2011

EIA claims there is 180+ TCF in the Polish shales.

http://www.wbj.pl/blog/CEEPolicyWatch/p ... ential.htm

March of 2012

Polish Geologic Institute professionals scale that back by about an order of magnitude.

http://www.pgi.gov.pl/en/archiwum-aktua ... asowa.html

Arguably the gold standard in these types of estimates knocks that estimate back by about another order of magnitude.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2012/3102/fs2012-3102.pdf
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby sparky » Fri 24 Jan 2014, 05:06:24

.
On the subject of Polish Shale
from Reuters news agency
Italy's Eni pulls out of Polish shale gas exploration
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/1 ... LB20140114

the quick version ....too much paperwork and not enough gas or oil
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 26 Jan 2014, 11:17:59

rockdoc123 wrote:.... in Poland they made hand waving comments about huge resources based on an idea of thickness, extent and TOC (from 1 or 2 old wells). As the drilling commenced what they found was that the high clay content has hindered fracs which means although there will be gas recovered it will not be anywhere near as large as originally thought


Wrong This problem is easily solved.

Oil and gas in clay rich shales can now be produced using waterless fracking. Avoid water that damages the formation and they'll produce just fine :)
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 26 Jan 2014, 15:41:14

wrong This problem is easily solved.

Oil and gas in clay rich shales can now be produced using waterless fracking. Avoid water that damages the formation and they'll produce just fine :)


you have to be able to frack the shale first or it won't produce. The issue is the shales behave in a plastic and not a brittle manner, hence it is impossible to create extensive fracture networks. Formation damage due to swelling clays or mobile clays is something completely unrelated.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 26 Jan 2014, 15:59:50

Fracking is the process that cracks the shales. Using water to frack can damage the formation if swelling clays are present. The swelling clays block and close the fractures.

Isn't that the issue in Poland?
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 26 Jan 2014, 17:38:17

no it is a mechanical issue. The clay materials in the Silurian are not generally swelling clays (smectites) but mainly illites and chlorites which do not bond water into their molecular structure which causes the swelling.

The issue is essentially the difference between putty and glass. If you hit a piece of glass with a hammer it shatters, if you hit putty with a hammer it dents but does not fracture. That is an oversimplification of course but a good gross analogy.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 26 Jan 2014, 20:10:16

Thanks Rockdoc. I understand now.

Once again I bow to your superior wisdom.

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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 26 Jan 2014, 22:46:29

P - And to add to doc's fine analogy, part of the learning curve in the Eagle Ford Shale was identifying the calcite rich section of the formation as having better potential then the purely clay intervals. The carbonate section is much more brittle. Likewise when I briefly worked the Haynesville Shale I quickly learned that the most productive intervals were mostly brittle limestone and not shale. But in reality the formation was more like slate and marble...the metamorphosed shale and limestone that was originally deposited. Extremely brittle.

This is a big reason why a lot of wells need to drilled around the globe to distinguish the shales worth developing and those not. "Shales" won't produce a lot of oil/NG...productive shales will produce a lot of oil/NG. It would be great if that weren't true given that the shales make up the vast majority of sedimentary rocks on the planet. The Eagle Ford Shale is a few hundred feet thick. But there many thousands of feet of other shale formations above and below the EFS all within easy reach of the drill bit.
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Re: THE Poland and Energy Thread (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 31 Mar 2014, 12:17:23

Chevron forms joint venture with Polish firm to explore for tight gas in Poland shales

Chevron expands activity in Poland shales

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has helped accelerate new exploration for NG in Poland.

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Re: THE Poland and Energy Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 31 Mar 2014, 12:57:33

Yep. And in no time at all (assuming the shale gas is worth developing) there will be many thousands of new wells drilled in Poland. BTW there are currently 5 rotary rigs drilling in Poland and about 50 all together in Europe. Currently in the US there are about 1,800 turning to the right.

Those dang Ruskies must be worried sick. Who knows how much NG sales to Poland they'll lose in the next few years? LOL.
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Poland Unrest

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 26 Oct 2020, 21:17:46

Police vans and units in riot gear were dispatched Friday to guard the Warsaw home of the leader of Poland's right-wing ruling party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski. An angry crowd of mostly young people confronted the cordon with chants of “This is war” and vulgar calls for the ruling team to step down.

The court ruling fulfilled a wish that Kaczynski had expressed in 2016 by saying, “We will strive to ensure that even cases of very difficult pregnancies, when the child is certain to die, very deformed, still end up in a birth, so that the child can be baptized, buried, have a name.”

Protesters in Warsaw held up banners with slogans including: “You Have Blood on Your Hands" and “You are Building Women's Hell.”

A 29-year-old, Diana Fidler, joined the protesters, explaining that she opposes abortion in cases of healthy fetuses, but finds the ruling forcing women to carry fetuses with severe defects to term extreme.


https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20201024-this-is-war-thousands-in-poland-protest-high-court-anti-abortion-ruling

So, we're not the only nation experiencing a irreconcilable divide.
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Re: THE Poland and Energy Thread (merged)

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 26 Oct 2020, 23:36:35

How did I get here?

This comes after Erdogan's allegation on Saturday that French President Emmanuel Macron had a problem with Muslims and needed checks on his mental health – assertions that prompted France to recall its ambassador from Ankara.


Erdogan calls for boycott of French goods, EU calls his comments 'unacceptable'
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20201026-erdogan-calls-for-boycott-of-french-goods-eu-calls-his-comments-unacceptable

It seems that something has to hold the alliances together. Economics seems to be falling short, though.
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