[Subjectivist]

So long as they can't go full venezuela things are ok. If something happened to make them go full venezuela, we'd need a militarized border.

We kinda already do need a well controlled border. Mexico becoming a failed state would make it even worse, but it is not as if things are wonderful right now.

[Darian S]

So long as they can't go full venezuela things are ok. If something happened to make them go full venezuela, we'd need a militarized border.

We kinda already do need a well controlled border. Mexico becoming a failed state would make it even worse, but it is not as if things are wonderful right now.

We need a controlled border true, but if SHTF scenario occurs, and a sustained global economic downturn happens, heavy militarization of the U.S. border will be needed to stop the collapse of the U.S.

[Tanada]

Mexico Oil Production through April 2018.png

In this image taken from LINK the original post date is early 2017 however the creator used Google live image tech so it updates every few months with new data. In this particular capture Mexico oil production is most recently posted for April 2018, which is about as fresh as you can get any data and expect it to have been through a couple preliminary correction cycles.

In this case the image now shows Mexico has fallen below 2.2 MM/bbl/d in crude+c+ngl for 2018. Meanwhile for the last decade Mexican internal oil consumption has been hovering around 2 MM/bbl/d. The logical conclusion being Mexico either has to get their act together and start fracking a lot on their side of the Rio Grand or they will cross over into being a net oil importer within the next 12 months.

The thing is we already know that some of the richest frackable shale formations in the USA in Texas and New Mexico being natural formations do not simply stop at the political border, they continue well on into Mexico proper. We also know that Mexico has been suffering major budget issues because they count on export income to pay for much of their budget and in the last decade as their exports have fallen things have been unpleasant.

We also know Mexico realizes these issues and set out about six or eight years ago to rewrite their energy laws to encourage foreign investment, but then the 2014 price crash derailed all those plans as the world glut meant nobody wanted to risk investing in a country that had already 'nationalized' investments in an earlier cycle of political upheaval.

So I am looking for evidence that with the return of world demand/supply balance in early 2017 that interest in investing in Mexico has resumed. Basically they can't get fracking going without money for infrastructure improvements and other financial investment so I am looking for a flow of cash to Mexico and so far I am not seeing evidence of it.

[rockdoc123]

We also know Mexico realizes these issues and set out about six or eight years ago to rewrite their energy laws to encourage foreign investment, but then the 2014 price crash derailed all those plans as the world glut meant nobody wanted to risk investing in a country that had already 'nationalized' investments in an earlier cycle of political upheaval.

So I am looking for evidence that with the return of world demand/supply balance in early 2017 that interest in investing in Mexico has resumed. Basically they can't get fracking going without money for infrastructure improvements and other financial investment so I am looking for a flow of cash to Mexico and so far I am not seeing evidence of it.

It is still a bit of a mess down there. The change to the constitution made it easier for foreign companies to enter into agreements in Mexico (all of PSA, service agreements and concession agreements were available) but the bid rounds and the blocks chosen for those bid rounds spread out the actual access over a couple of years. It wasn't until recently that any of the shale gas potential blocks were offered with the initial bid rounds focussing on the offshore in the Campeche area. Pemex now has the ability to farm out but the process imposed on them is pretty much a joke meaning it is handled almost the same as a normal bid round which means delays and Pemex not getting the partners it really needs. All of this came to a drastic halt with the election of Obrador as new President to replace Neto. It was immediately announced that all negotiations for blocks that were not completed would be "suspended" until such time as Obrador took the official position (effectively Feb of 2019) and Obrador has stated he would consider not offering any new blocks to foreign companies, instead focussing on "fixing" Pemex. So the industry is basically in a holding position. No one in their right minds would commit any capital expenditures until the new President takes power and the worry is still out there that he might decide to rescind previous awards to foreign companies.

The opportunity for unconventional is still viewed to be large. Pemex did drill a few wells into the EagleFord extension and apparently had some success. But a lot of infrastructure needs to be put in place for this to really take off, which, of course, is all on hold at this point in time. There also remains a lot of low hanging fruit with regards to fields that Pemex discovered and produced over the past century. Some of these have seen very low recovery factors mainly due to antiquated methods of completion. There has been very little in the way of field optimization, in-fill drilling or use of artificial lift, all of which could significantly improve Mexico's production.

[rockdoc123]

The Permian is not in Mexico

Incorrect. There is an extension of Bone Spring and Woodford shales (both Paleozoic producers in the US Permian basin) into the Chihuahua province in Mexico. Beyond the Permian producers, there is the Eagleford extension but also several other prospective basins onshore along the east coast as far south as Veracruz.

[Tanada]

Spanish Police Arrest Former Head of Mexico's State Oil Firm Pemex

Malaga, Spain, February 12, 2020. REUTERS/Jon NazcaReuters

By Adriana Barrera and Emma Pinedo

MEXICO CITY/MADRID (Reuters) - Spanish police on Wednesday arrested Emilio Lozoya, the former chief executive of Mexico's state oil firm Pemex, giving President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador his first high-profile win in his government's anti-corruption drive.

Lozoya, who has not been seen publicly since mid-2019, is accused in Mexico of corruption related to a wide-ranging bribery and money laundering case involving Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht SA. He has denied wrongdoing.

His detention is a major coup for Lopez Obrador, a leftist who won power on an anti-graft platform and who has sought to paint former administration officials as members of a corrupt elite since taking office in December 2018.

Lozoya, who was indicted in Mexico last year, was one of former President Enrique Pena Nieto's closest aides, and ran Petróleos Mexicanos, known as Pemex, from 2012 to 2016.

Lozoya was detained in the Spanish city of Malaga, the police said.

Lozoya's lawyer, Javier Coello, said his client had yet to decide whether to fight extradition from Spain or return voluntarily from Mexico.

"It's his personal decision. We have all the evidence necessary to defend him," he told Mexican TV station Milenio.

While Lopez Obrador employs fierce anti-corruption rhetoric, his administration has not pursued any former Mexican presidents for graft and formal charges have only been pressed against one ex-minister in Pena Nieto's scandal-plagued administration.

However, the U.S. government has in recent months launched a series of court cases against former Mexican officials, including Peno Nieto ally and former top security official, Genaro Garcia Luna.

The head of Mexico's Public Administration Ministry, Irma Sandoval, congratulated Mexico's attorney general on Twitter for the arrest of Lozoya, whom she branded a "representative and operator of the worst structural corruption."

Coello said Mexico's attorney general had requested Lozoya's detention over the Odebrecht case and for allegedly receiving a bribe from one of Mexico's largest steelmakers, Altos Hornos de Mexico, or AHMSA, before he became a government official.

Part of the investigation into Lozoya has been focused on money transfers that AHMSA made to a shell company allegedly set up by Odebrecht to pay bribes. That shell firm in turn allegedly sent the funds to Lozoya and his relatives.

Lozoya was the manager of Pena Nieto's winning 2011 presidential campaign.

During Lozoya's term as Pemex chief the company was rocked by a series of scandals, including investments in two struggling fertilizer plants that Mexico's Federal Audit Office (ASF) said "destroyed value."

During Pena Nieto's term, Pemex took on an additional $47 billion in loans to cement its place as the world's most indebted oil company. It was creaking under $106 billion in debt by the time the former president left office in 2018.

In July, Lozoya's mother was arrested in Germany in connection with money laundering charges.

Lozoya's German wife, Marielle Eckes, is also the target of an outstanding arrest warrant, along with Lozoya's sister Gilda Lozoya.

(Additional reporting by Raul Cortes; Writing by Drazen Jorgic; Editing by Marianna Parraga, Marguerita Choy, Paul Simao and Richard Chang)

Arrest Made

[Azothius]

Not sure in which forum this would best be placed, but I would appreciate some additional insight into this:

Exclusive: U.S., Canada, European nations meet to discuss concern over Mexico energy policy

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/excl ... 02817.html

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The United States, the European Union, Canada and six European nations have held joint talks on concerns over Mexico's energy policy, sources told Reuters, as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador pushes for a bigger role for the state in the sector.

Some of the money tied up in energy investments in Mexico is linked to pension funds in Europe and North America. Critics of the government's policies worry that diminishing returns on those Mexican energy investments may hit pensioners

.

Seems rather extraordinary that so many countries would convene to discuss this - are "we" that heavily invested in Mexico's energy output?

[Tanada]

Not sure in which forum this would best be placed, but I would appreciate some additional insight into this:

Exclusive: U.S., Canada, European nations meet to discuss concern over Mexico energy policy

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/excl ... 02817.html

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The United States, the European Union, Canada and six European nations have held joint talks on concerns over Mexico's energy policy, sources told Reuters, as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador pushes for a bigger role for the state in the sector.

Some of the money tied up in energy investments in Mexico is linked to pension funds in Europe and North America. Critics of the government's policies worry that diminishing returns on those Mexican energy investments may hit pensioners

.

Seems rather extraordinary that so many countries would convene to discuss this - are "we" that heavily invested in Mexico's energy output?

The sad thing is this indicates Mexico is pulling back hard from their attempts to gain outside investment. Such a strategy can not end well as Mexico does not have the state wealth to invest in rebuilding the oil industry, so chasing away private investment once again means they will go back into declining production, which is no help to their budget situation.

[Subjectivist]

Mexico's Pemex narrows losses in second quarter, but debt rises

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico’s Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) reduced losses during the second quarter even as crude prices fell during the coronavirus pandemic, the national oil company said on Tuesday.

The 44.3 billion peso ($1.9 billion) net loss during the April-to-June period was over 16% lower than the nearly 53 billion pesos Pemex lost in the same period last year, the company said in a filing to the stock exchange.

“As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a sudden paralysis of commercial activities in large parts of both the national and the international economy,” Pemex said.

Pemex also said its tax bill fell 77%.

Revenue during the quarter slipped to some 182 billion pesos from 377 billion pesos during the same period last year.

While production of crude oil and condensates was flat at 1.673 million barrels per day (bpd), prices for Mexico’s crude export mix averaged about $24 per barrel during the quarter, or about 60% less than during the same period in 2019.

During the quarter, Pemex’s financial debt rose nearly $2.4 billion to $107.2 billion, one of the largest of any oil company worldwide.

Yields on eight of the 14 most frequently traded Pemex bonds narrowed on Tuesday, data from MarketAxess showed, particularly bonds due in September 2047 and January 2029.

Pemex lost its coveted investment grade rating earlier this year and is on a 15-year streak of declining crude output that President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador pledged to reverse.

In the first quarter, Pemex posted a nearly $24 billion (562 billion peso) loss on massive foreign exchange losses as well as falling oil prices and demand in the pandemic.

That loss was one of the worst in history, but it mostly reflected accounting of a beat-up peso.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peme ... SKCN24T2BG