mousepad wrote:AdamB wrote:what the real live experts with proprietary data think on the topic.
Those guys have been badly wrong in the past, too.
True. They underestimated the crap out of US oil production, starting right about the time certified peak oilers announced to the United States in 2011 that there was no oil of significance in the light, tight oil formations of the US.
Predicting the future is hard. The main difference is, as the EIA themselves have demonstrated, is that some learn why they were wrong, and do better next time. Peak oilers haven't' figured that one out yet, if you don't believe me, just check out the same speculation happening in this forum right now on how everything ends, but compare it to the archives from 15 years ago. You can even find some of the same posters, saying the same things they said 15 years ago...still saying the same things!!!
The EIA looked at what was happening...said..."CRAP!!! We are underestimating US oil production! Lets learn something and do better next time!!"
Seems like a more reasonable approach. Maybe because it takes experts to know this learning thing, and around here we have just doomers?
mousepad wrote: Similar to doomers, just in the opposite direction. I'm wondering why you put so much trust in them?
Are you one of them predictors?
Not quite. Uni-directional predicting is a dead giveaway for the faith based. The Sun is rising...we are doomed! The Sun is setting...we are doomed! The Sun is rising again....but we are still doomed! Peak oilers are like Harold Camping...except with oil.