AdamB wrote:I've got no beef with peak oil demand at all.
I do. It is sidestepping the issue, just like when 'BLM' is confronted with 'ALM', which is utter bullshit, so the same.
King Hubbert elucidated the nature of peak oil in the 1950's and fitted bell curves to the data.
He was exactly right for American peak oil (in 1972) until the current shale oil boom.
So, the shale oil boom was a technological triumph, probably ecological disaster, definitely a financial boondoggle,
which distorted these curves and put the lie to 'peak oil', or did it?
So, getting back to my point, is that 'Peak Demand' is utter bullshit because Oil is an extremely valuable commodity.
You wouldn't have rocket ships without petroleum products. It has no real substitute yet and, probably, never will, which is the key point.
The key point is that there ALWAYS will be demand, so there will be no such thing as peak demand unless the human population is decimated repeatedly.
That we can't leave our houses right now is a temporary phenomena. When we can no longer feed ourselves, maybe there will be peak demand for oil products.
Until then, Peak Oil = Peak Use and my guess is that we are already at that point, but that is a guess obviously as we haven't dug up every area available yet, but developing all these places remaining will encompass terrific environmental destruction which is IMO not worth it except to keep BAU going as long as possible.