MonteQuest wrote:Ok, I didn't mean to sound like I was conflating here. In 2018, wind, solar, and geothermal increased their share of the overall energy pie .3% from 1.7% in 2017 to 2% in 2018. 2016 to 2017, just .1%. Same for 2015 to 2016. As to electricity, modern renewables grew from 5.9% in 2017 to 7.9% in 2018. All renewables grew 1.6%. That's a doubling time of 44 years. 88 years to meet a doubling of energy by 2050. The Law of Diminishing returns says that won't happen. Again, you do realize that to go from 7.9% in electrical power today to 50% in 2050 while energy demand doubles is pure fantasy, don't you? I expect most of the new demand for energy will be in the form of electricity, don't you? So, that demand may be more than double for electricity. And even if it is met, it's only 25% of energy demand. 75% is heating and transportation. However, by 2050, that 25% will rise.
You can post all manner of cheapness, growth rates, projections, etc. But as long as new demand for energy outstrips nearly all gains, we are in a Red Queen Syndrome. That was the case in 2004 when I heard the same claims and it's still true today. The growth rate of renewables is just too slow to make a significant difference. What do you see changing? I see demand going up even faster as developing countries try to urbanize.
No need to read some fantasy novel here Monte. The facts are listed right in REN21. Electricity demand increased. Yet wind and solar still increased their market share by 1% annually. It already happened. Several years in a row it has been happening. It's not fantasy, it's fact. From 2018 to 2050 is 32 years. Just going by today's increase in market share, not factoring in any increase at all, wind & solar go from 8% market share today to 40% in 2050. And that's just wind & solar.
MonteQuest wrote:You can post all manner of cheapness, growth rates, projections, etc. But as long as new demand for energy outstrips nearly all gains, we are in a Red Queen Syndrome. That was the case in 2004 when I heard the same claims and it's still true today. The growth rate of renewables is just too slow to make a significant difference. What do you see changing? I see demand going up even faster as developing countries try to urbanize.
You say that. Then you use conflated growth rates of .1% to confirm your bias. However that growth rate was for all energy, not electricity. Just at today's growth rate alone we will hit 40% wind & solar by 2050. You can point to all manner of Red Queen Syndrome, Law of Diminishing returns, Betz limit, etc. It does not alter the facts.
MonteQuest wrote:The average of cost for solar PV also declined 73.8% between 2010 and 2018, and wind costs fell 22%, yet little market share was gained. So falling costs are not the whole story.
Oh really? Solar PV capacity additions in 2010 were 24 GW. In 2018, they were 100 GW. Costs falling to one quarter of their former value had nothing to do with a quadrupling of additions huh?
MonteQuest wrote:not to mention the abysmal growth in market share.
Still conflating the growth rate of all energy with electricity I see. A 1% annual increase in market share will take wind & solar to 40% of market share by 2050. That's just wind & solar alone.
MonteQuest wrote:2019's data will be out in June. I don't anticipate a huge jump from that .4%/yr growth rate. Any bet takers?
I'll take that bet. I've already seen the data for 2019 from global dashboard. Their values are slightly different from REN21 but in the same ballpark. They show coal generation falling. I'm betting wind & solar will increase their market share by at least double that rate.
The oil barrel is half-full.